Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

Ughh, Maru is playing zanster right now so I can't really read your whole post right now. Here's my answer to like the first 3 sentences.

I agree you are smart, but if we are taking a super high analytical skill as a given for your play, then you would have to answer for that case on Thor and the "accidental" claim.

[teacher]

Sounds good. Im going to sign off for the night since Im busy with kids tomorrow.

The Thor case -- I actually stand by this. It essentially cleared Meji for me. I take it from your lynch pool it did for you as well. Thus, the Thor lynch was better than the Meji lynch. And that was what I saw as being possible at that point.

The accidental claim--you didnt reach my timing point. Between (a) the day one crumbing, (b) the claim when scum!me couldnt know C2 or C3, I think the claim is credible. Also, as a serious question, how does scum!me even come up with the possiblity of being jailkept? It makes a hell of a lot of sense once I have results, but isnt a chance before results, right?

Since we are now on a different page, I want to link two posts of mine for the absent board. I made a brass-flicker case in 841 and argued against me being on any team in 842. The subsequent conversation with Oxy didnt really challenge either of those two points, and I welcome the board to engage with either of those analyses. Hope everyone has a good weekend, and I will see you tomorrow night!

[Oxy]

I'll answer your posts in full before bed, but to correct one thing - Meji is clear because she pointed out why you must be scum.

Scum might distance today - they might even bus - but I don't see them giving the solve like that. If scum!meji is busing you here by outing why your result is wrong, that's on another level.

[teacher]

haha. Also, to prempt part of your answer, C3 is Dr-Tracker not Dr-Jailkeeper. I screwed up the setup again. The timing of the claim if I know we are in C is not that informative, and not a plus for me.

That said, I dont see how Scum!me (regardless of intelligence) concocts a JK claim based on NK's closing words. I think I greencheck my supposed partner, Flicker. The only way I thought of Jailkeeping at all was actually having been Jailkept.

Good night. Board please read 841 and 842.

[Oxy]

If you aren't teacher, and you're bored with the back and forth, this is probably a post you can skip.

I know it's dumb to try and convince someone that they are scum regardless of their alignment. I am sincerely enjoying this debate, tho. =) SO HERE'S A WALL.

Scum!me is smart, right? Smart enough to plan the failed gamesolve to out the protective PR?

I didn't actually remember you inducing NK to claim. I went back, and you did post about claiming first, but NK was ready to mass claim in his first post of D2. It would be interesting if town!teacher felt this way, but it sounds to me like you

actually were

trying to fish out the PR claim. Up until now, no one but you has accused you of that, I don't think?

Smart enough to fakeclaim tracker because I know we are in C2?

Yes, smart enough to claim tracker. Why not? Scum!teacher knows it couldn't be cc'd, and it fits with your MO of choosing results to claim that give the least amount of information.

If that is the case, how in the hell do I not plan my false report out smart enough to realize that the JK claim is the worst for me? Not to realize a nullcheck on partner (notably, a true result even if not obtained) would be better, and would build towncred for tracking the spot I crumbed a?

I think the best option would have actually been to null result me. I was never getting lynched today, but I wasn't as universally town read as Elephant, and it would have predisposed me to believing you. This is a decent question. As either alignment, I think you've been rushing your analysis this game. See below for examples, but also include the Thor case.

ALL OF THE OTHER SETUP STUFF

It is clear to me from looking back on the start of D2 that teacher did not carefully examine the setup possibilities for this game.

It's hard to evaluate his setup errors as coming from one alignment or another because both scum and PR have a heightened need to study the setup. There are more errors like these, but these are good examples.

---

As he pointed out, he initially assumed that there had been a doctor save. I expect both scum and tracker to have looked at the setup, and understand that either JK or Doctor could have stopped the kill.

I expect this from scum in column C because both are possibilities in their world
I expect this from the tracker, because both are possible second PR in their world.

---

Just now, he made an argument based on C3 being Doctor + Jail Keeper rather than Doctor + Tracker.

I would have expected scum living in the C column to know the possible setup specs.
I would have expected the tracker to know C3 has a tracker in it because I would have expected the tracker to have looked at setups WITH TRACKERS IN THEM.

---

Clearly, at least half of these are unfair expectations to have of teacher. However, I don't feel the need to argue against super-setup-wiz!teacher because that guy doesn't exist as either alignment. If there is any question at all to be had, it's does teacher rush through the analysis - as evidenced by the errors - more often as tracker or as scum. Or is he equally likely to do so as either alignment?

I don't know, so I'm calling it all NAI. And I think that's a very charitable reading because it's really tempting to just call these two examples scum slips (and there is a draft of this post that did just that).

@teacher I'm not actually sure where my scum case on you requires you to be an evil genius. I'm not trying to insult you; I do believe you are smart. I just don't think my case depends on it.

[Oxy]

If that was his plan, then he puts you in this terrible position where you look scummy as hell because of his final posts.

But once the result is known, his final posts can be understood just the way I suggest. Moreover, if the fundamental point of a PR is to save conf!town, perhaps he thought of his action as a way to definitively save me, and conf me as town. I dunno. I know Im not going to persuade you, but it hurts me because I think its so logical.

No - everyone including NK and the two of us knew NK was dying. That was the only given. He knew he wasn't saving you.

[Oxy]

The accidental claim--you didnt reach my timing point. Between (a) the day one crumbing,

Where is your day one tracker crumb?

[Oxy]

Also, as a serious question, how does scum!me even come up with the possiblity of being jailkept? It makes a hell of a lot of sense once I have results, but isnt a chance before results, right?

It seriously does not seem outrageous to me that - in a game with a confirmed jail keeper - scum would be able to conceive of being jailed.

Maybe that is unreasonable, lol? I do really want to see the D1 crumb.

[teacher]

On mobile during Sesame Street . I do appreciate the wall. Thor had accused me of the PR hunt at the start of D2 before the claim. As for the best Scum!action being checking you, the best I can say is that I am town which is why I crumbed and followed (or tried to follow) Flicker. The setup stuff is NAI - I did look at tracker setups, but Dr was possible and I had not played with JK before and presumed their N1 job was to hunt, rather than N2 save.

As for D1 crumbing, I did not crumb actions, but I did crumb role as I have previously claimed. In fact, I changed my track partway through from Nauci to Thor becuase I decided I couldnt tell WTF Thor was and you and I both thought he was at least mildy sus. But I did crumb having a PR, most obviously in response to Nauci somewhere in the 120s 130s - that newb!PR has the same nerves. Another crumb was somewhere in the 80s, that lynching me hurts town - you will note that I suggested a similar comment from James was a crumb back when he was at L-2 and I was hesitant.

If your bottom line case is based on NK, I hope you take a step back and think about it. I think you've acknowledged that 822 is at least a possible interpretation. And I dont think scum!me both conceives and claims JK as compared with nullchecking flicker, and getting credit for the crumb. I truly assure you I a mislynch though, so perhaps return to pushing sleep?

Also, board please read 841 and 842 and push me on it. Because it is challenging the individual who had been my strongest townread by playstyle, although Brass opened the door to that too with his reads, while also pointing out some more suspect things about Flicker.

[teacher]

It seriously does not seem outrageous to me that - in a game with a confirmed jail keeper - scum would be able to conceive of being jailed.

I know we are both banging our heads against walls, but you are ignoring NK's words.

I think you earlier agreed that scum me would likely be given the night action because of NK's words.
Given NK's death, I would know they went through.
So why would scum me - given the night action because of NK's words - then claim JK contrary to those words for all appearances ?

BTW, I dont think NK put the board in the 'terrible' position you claimed earlier. He said to trust me at the end - essentially that, in his view, his death while I was in jail conf!towned me

Now SS is done, and so am I. Bd pls read 841 and 842 and push me on it. Have a good day!

[Oxy]

I have some thinking to do. It's probably just me being super paranoid, but I don't have time to dig through it right now. Updates by tonight/tomorrow.

[/vote]UNVOTEVOTE:

I'd love all of your thoughts on teacher and the last couple pages in the interim.

[Oxy]

VOTE: UNVOTE

[Oxy]

IMPORTANT POST

I'm procrastinating important things because of this game, lol.

I had this nagging feeling that Not Known was actually scum reading teacher, and might have actually jailed him as a result. I thought this because of the following two quotes. Specifically, maybe Not Known thought that teacher thinking there had to be a doctor was indicative of teacher knowing scum wasn't jailed. The following two quotes illustrate why I thought this might be the case.

The third quote has NK explicitly NOT town reading teacher's claim, further supporting this theory.

Why do you think we have a doctor? The missing Night Kill?

Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?

I see one giant hole in it... there are two roles who can stop a kill, not just one.

As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.

Actually... no. The claim is not Town-alignment indicative in itself. If I am the only power role then one of the scum can easily claim tracker without fear. You are the IC, why don't you know this stuff?

But then there is this next quote. This next quote implies a hard town read on teacher:

I looked at the case and the reasoning of Teacher.
VOTE: Thor665
plan change:
If Thor is scum I will jailkeep Meji. If someone dies Meji is cleared. Teacher will not announce their target because that isn't needed.
If Thor is town then both Teacher and me have to look for someone, without coordination - we can't let scum know who we target.

Here's why:
If NK is scum reading teacher for possibly knowing that Thor was a save, that implies that Thor is clear in a world where teacher is scum. If he is scum reading teacher at all, why does he a) sheep teacher's read, and (obviously related, but important independently), sheep it onto the person that would be cleared if his suspicions of scum!teacher were correct?

He just doesn't. So at this point, we know that NK is hard town reading teacher.

Now, let's look at his ultimate plan. Even when analyzing a world where thor flips town, NK STILL hard town reads teacher. He says to "follow teacher's leads."
From this, I infer that he is no longer considering the first two quotations as a reason to scum read teacher, EVEN IN A WORLD WHERE THOR FLIPS TOWN!

For him to jail teacher while a) knowing the position it would put town!teacher in on D3, and b) hard town reading teacher simply makes no sense.

teacher is scum after all.
VOTE: teacher

For clarity, it should be known that outside of these posts and NK's last stated plan, NK made no posts that imply a feeling on teacher's alignment one way or another on D2.

[Meji Fan]

When I very much asked NK about why Thor it was a teacher case NK pointed me at, so I'm very confident NK felt teacher town

I'm still not seeing why Thor town is supposed to clear me, Thor didn't seem to think so, Thor said I was playing like scum trying to stay off a terrible wagon (which I don't agree with), so it kinda feels like teacher is trying to buddy with me for some reason

[teacher]

Meji, its because I cant come up with another teammate for you. The one possibility is Brass/Nauci, and your low activity tunnel would make that supper weird. Everyone else (me included) would have lynched you yesterday, which strikes me as early for bussing.

[teacher]

Also, Oxy, 862 is way off base. No, Im not disputing your conclusion, though wrong. You just miss the point of NK's quotes from the 370s. There hes just pointing out that my solve fails because hes jk. I dont think hes throwing any shade on me. 590 does. But I agree. My gut says NK town read me, but knew he had a better, 50/50 chance with me in jail than anyone else. He lost. Will you? Or will scumyou win?

[Oxy]

teacher - You could very well be right that the first two quotes of 862 do not imply he was scum reading you.

However, saying that they could imply a scum read is the most charitable way of reading them when making a case for why you are scum. If NK was scum reading you, it would give some credibility to the idea that he actually jailed you.

So what I am doing here is trying to find ways to corroborate your story, and then see if they stand up to scrutiny. I haven't found one that does, yet.

[teacher]

The scum pool at end of yesterday, at smallest, was (Nauci/Brass, Flicker, you) -- I am excluding Meji because NK bought my Thor case, Elephant because everyone towned him, and Me because I agree he thought I was town. NK had a 33% chance of catching scum at best outside of me, and more likely 25 (include me) or 20 (include Meji or elephant).

My claim was my strongest argument to being town, after a D1 where everyone at least suspected me. But at the end of D2, NK now knows I led a mislynch on an IC who was the nightkill target and had a suspect D1.

I think NK thought he had a better chance (50%) Jailkeeping me than he did anywhere else (at best, 33%). His move makes sense from his position, and is still consistent with one understanding of his words. My 'was JK' claim only makes sense - given his words - after knowing my results. I dont think scum!me makes it - it doesnt advance my wincon.

I know Im not going to convince you. I honestly cant tell whether its confirmation bias or whether you are mislynch hunting again. There is a reason Im not voting you even though I think you and elephant are the most likely team. Im waiting for the board to return and analyze 841 and 842. But if you are town, I really do hope you will go back to considering sleeping or can make a case to convince me on Flicker, the spot you think is my teammate and that I am also open to being scum (hence the track attempt).

[teacher]

He also calls my slot scummy basically for Nauci not being present while she was ill, and now has completely discounted Meji even though he has the fewest posts in the game. For someone who loves to claim inconsistencies, that is a glaring inconsistency

Random reread point to Brass -- this isnt inconsistent. Nauci disappearing is inconsistent with her playstyle this game, when she was posting from the ER high on painkillers - using this as an escape. Thus, Nauci disappearing is scummy given her early playstyle. Contrast Meji's playstyle all game - low posts with tunnelled reads and not interacting-->consistent all game. As several have said, lurking is not necessarily AI. I scum Nauci for changing. I question Meji for not being more pro-town, but I dont see the same inconsistency from that slot as there had been in yours.

All of this said, as you can tell from my posts all day, Im now leaning away from your slot due to the D3 coordination I am seeing from an even more plausible team of Oxy-Elephant.

[Flicker]

I know I'm due for a prod so I'll just post this really quickly: if everyone could stop tunneling teacher I'd really appreciate it. Maybe I'm just the VI that's gonna cause town to lose, but I still believe he's the tracker. His claim, especially from the N2 actions, are just too weird of a lie IMO.

Also, since brass and teacher have both expressed doubts about Irrelephant being town, I intend to go through his ISO and town case him, hopefully by tomorrow or Monday at the latest. Since that's my other strongest read ATM, I figure it's the most I can contribute to town.

[teacher]

Flicker-FYI, its not the ISO for me at all. There's not that much there (though thats interesting in itself). Its the associational for Elephant with me. I still really want to like the guy, but just cant anymore. Have a good weekend.

[Oxy]

I know I'm due for a prod so I'll just post this really quickly: if everyone could stop tunneling teacher I'd really appreciate it. Maybe I'm just the VI that's gonna cause town to lose, but I still believe he's the tracker.

I appreciate your invitation to dinner, but I'm afraid I've already AtE.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.02

Teacher (1) Oxy
Not Voting (5) Irrelephant11, Flicker, teacher, brassherald, Meji Fan

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[Irrelephant11]

Weekend short post:

Honestly an Oxy/me team is ridiculous, and the worst argument. Looks more like Flicker and teacher are aligned each time Flicker posts. Any chance it’s brass and Meji though? Not much attention over there anymore. That’s the question I’ll be exploring tomorrow.

@Oxy re:854 I’m curious if teacher’s “lack of setup understanding” makes sense from a scum who considered claiming doctor? Not enough time to go back and read it.
@teach re:870 Associational? Like I’m scum because Oxy is scum? Even though your post about us being scum included points about why why our team is a weak argument?

Meji at this point we need you to post. Like I just need you to talk more to have any chance of a town win.

More to respond than this, obvs. See ya tomorrow

[Oxy]

@Oxy re:854 I’m curious if teacher’s “lack of setup understanding” makes sense from a scum who considered claiming doctor? Not enough time to go back and read it.

Yes, it could be.

However, I think a strong case can be made for scum!teacher without these, and there are enough errors in his understanding of the setup over the course of this game that I'm inclined to believe they are personality indicative rather than alignment indicative.

Basically,

Scum!teacher went, "oh shit, our kill got blocked. I need to take control of the game state in order to out the JK/doctor."

or

tracker!teacher went, "Oh shit, a kill got stopped, so there must be a protective role. This is exciting! I'm the only one who knows that I am tracker, so I have a unique ability to judge PR claims in this game and should be helping to direct the process."

As either alignment, I believe it is possible that he rushes through his analysis in order to post quickly and direct the manner in which people would claim.