Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[brassherald]

I've skimmed this weekend, but had a busy weekend, and need to prep for Court tomorrow, so this is a prod dodge.

[teacher]

Good luck tomorrow. The Sovereign district or Supreme? (or other?)

[Oxy]

[teacher]

Hey man, I help keep drugs expensive. I do the Lord's work.

[Oxy]

lolol <3

[brassherald]

Good luck tomorrow. The Sovereign district or Supreme? (or other?)

Thanks, it's Supreme, but in New York, that's just the regular state court.

[Meji Fan]

I've relooked and honestly I'm not sold on teacher, I still don't like the Thor case and NKs blind following, but, I admit, I can now that I think of it not be sure NK wouldn't jailkeep teacher to make sure teacher made it to D3 to lead us

I felt pretty Flicker town yesterday, so I think will muse on Oxy and brass

[teacher]

Since its now Monday, Id like to ask the Board to push me on 841 and 842. The reason is because it (and Brass's reads post, which seemed sound) has made me more suspect of Elephant than I have been at any point this game. I would like pushback/feedback.

Im honestly not sure what the best strategy for the town is at this point. Im inclined to sleep and try to track. Im certainly not going to crumb my target tonight. What do you all think? Im open to being persuaded to vote either Flicker or Oxy/Elephant, but thats an either/or, with a 50% chance of losing the game. I will also try to answer any questions you all may have.

[teacher]

Also open for tracking suggestions if town makes it through the day, but I will be digesting them all with sufficient salt.

[Irrelephant11]

Also probably it's a coin flip who should make the kill when you've got a fake claim going

How is this a coinflip under your interpretation of NK?

The coinflip is which of you/your teammate would make the kill. Sure, you might be less suspected by NK15 than your potential partner, but as the fakeclaim you've also got more attention on you. Also, I'll add here that saying "NK15 thought I was town, so why wouldn't I make the kill?" definitely undercuts your "NK15 thought I was scum, so that's why he really did jailkeep me."

OK, I do concede Flicker and I COULD be a team, but the problem I see with that is Flicker's D1 -- voting me and trying to get others to join her in the 100s, and then getting angry with me for delaying and ultimately getting off a wagon just as I was getting on in the 250s-300s. Heading out the door as well.

A bunch of pressure D1 with few actual votes and therefore low stakes sounds

exactly

like what a scum partner would do.

@Oxy/Elephant: By the way, if you wont assume town me and build a scum team from the pool, then at least pair me. I'm biased but I dont see it.

Gonna do both of these things, actually (assume town you and pair you). Coming soon

[teacher]

I'll add here that saying "NK15 thought I was town, so why wouldn't I make the kill?" definitely undercuts your "NK15 thought I was scum, so that's why he really did jailkeep me."

Thank you for the promises at the end of this post, and I look forward to reading them. But I wanted to briefly respond to this. I *think* I have been consistent in my approach to NK today (some of my posts with Oxy were quickly written because I was enjoying the back and forth, so may not have been as clear as I would like, but my thinking has stayed the same). To try to restate my views clearly:

I think NK thought I was town, for the reasons Oxy excerpted. Certainly, his D2 and Twilight D2 comments seemed to say he would not JK me.

It still makes sense for NK to JK me, even with his townread, because he knew that read could be wrong. Given the surface interpretation of NK's D2 comments, I truly believe scum!me would have to be assigned the night actions. NK thus JKs me to cover the risk his read was wrong, but also to conf!town me if he does die. This is possibly the best move NK can make, even though it deprives the town of my tracking, because its 50/50 rather than the >33% chance of JK scum (magnified by the risk I cant actually track), and it provides a conf!town if the kill nonetheless goes through.

Now I get that you all dont buy this. But it makes complete sense to me, and works with NK's final words in a way I didnt see until I got my attempted track results.

[Oxy]

serious request:

Can I see a show of hands of people who would make those final posts when in NK's position, and then proceed to jail teacher?

There is a zero percent chance that I would have done that, and I think if you're honest with yourselves, there is a very low chance that you would have done it, either.

[Irrelephant11]

Okay, to start,

teacher

&

Flicker

team

- based on meji's last post, I'm seeing a >0% chance meji is teacher's partner, but it's still unlikely imo, so this pair first:

I've never liked teacher's posts, btw. D1 teacher includes things like "informal vote counts" (83, 240) and other information w/o analysis (66, 241) that are safe ways of looking towny without actually helping town (assuming town has paid any attention to the game).

Flicker's first post includes a policy lynch vote on James Brafin and the quote "I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet." In post 81. She stays consistent throughout D1 that James Brafin and teacher are her two scummiest reads. At the time, this made sense to me - I also thought both were scummy. In retrospect, though, Flicker eventually reverses course on both players in a scummy way. By the end of D1, she hops off the JB vote at the last second, and doesn't land anywhere in particular. Meanwhile, her & teacher's reads of each other evolve like this:

Spoiler:

45:

"I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS."

(basically, "teacher is my second favorite scumread based on his first post").
66:

"Slight townread."

81:

"VOTE: teacher"

107:

"Flicker: From slight town read to nullread."

120:

"for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings."

134:

"My gut. If want reasoning, ask... Flicer -> slight town."

193:

"this "differences in meta" explanation would be a weird, detailed lie, so I'm inclined to take your word for it, which also tanks most of my scum-read on you... Null: Oxy & teacher, Meji"

Same post:

"PEdit: I doubt moving my vote to Meji (or quiet posters more generally) will prompt them to post, but since it's that, move James to L-1, or just unvote (which is fairly pointless IMO), I guess I'll leave my vote where it is for now? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯"

264: "

I townlean Flicker"

Overall, D1 they take pains to have not-town reads on each other at times (including a "she voted me how could we be a team" vote) but "evolve" to townreads based on... very little, honestly
Night 1

366:

"From yesterday's end, I have 1. NK, 2. Nauci/Meji (order intentional), and 4. Flicker as suspects."

450:

"VOTE: Nauci, Meji, Thor, Flicker."

586:

"Likely scum: Meji, Thor
PoE from scummy to townie: Flicker, Nauci, Elephant, Oxy"

teacher keeps including Flicker in scum lists, but always near the bottom. Notably,

Flicker offers no read of teacher either way D2, not even to say she believes his claim

Night 2

766:

"I tried to track Flicker"

772:

"Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim."

812:

That leaves Flicker. I scum him so am interested in the case on her associations (with me AND with others on the board).

837:

I do concede Flicker and I COULD be a team

( )
869:

"I still believe he's the tracker."

doing this ISO process showed me that Flicker is TERRIBLE D2. Aside from how unlikely I think it is that teacher is tracker at this point, Flicker's D2 would be my scummiest read and my vote today.

For example,

Assuming NK15 is telling the truth for now, of the three options available to explain the no night kill, I feel like the most likely to least likely scenario is:

1. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
3. Thor was scum's night kill target.

makes NO sense, unless there's some chance Flicker/someone didn't get a nightkill in, or to add confusion? Otherwise, why assume this is the most likely option? She later course corrects in 574 when I ask about it, saying that the new most likely option is that Thor was scum's nightkill target.

And then she votes Thor a few ISO posts later without any further analysis.

This post is taking a long time to write, plus there's not much more on this team to add, so I'm gonna post it so y'all can start discussing.

[Irrelephant11]

Forgot to summarize thoughts on D3 reads of each other - Still makes sense as scum team. Their mismatching reads make it harder to lynch teacher (Flicker refuses to vote him) while setting Flicker up as the sacrifice for teacher's towncred.

Also teacher's D1 "townblock" with me, Oxy, and Flicker is almost genius given a teacher/flicker team. Four votes going anywhere but scum will always work out for them

Meanwhile, an Oxy/me team is ridiculous. teacher says the only scummy thing about either of us is how we're working together to push hard for his mislynch and we had similar reads D2. If we were scum, neither of those things would happen? Like in whatworld do two scum parrot each other two days in a row? Compare this to the likelihood that Oxy and I just honestly can't find scum teams for the other (at least I assume Oxy feels this way I don't remember if he's said it) and town read each other.

Next, a town teacher world, wherein it probably is Flicker/brass, but I'm not ignoring meji just yet, because town meji has played pretty poorly but scum meji has played great.

[teacher]

an Oxy/me team is ridiculous. teacher says the only scummy thing about either of us is how we're working together to push hard for his mislynch and we had similar reads D2. If we were scum, neither of those things would happen? Like in whatworld do two scum parrot each other two days in a row?

I disagree - this is not the only scummy thing about you (or Oxy). Quick recap:

• In a world where I know Im town, I have to choose between a team where two scum are on the D1 wagon, or two are off. I agree with Thor on which one is more likely, especially since I dont see a Brass-Meji team as particularly likely and Oxy only joined late.
• I also find it scummy that you played Friday much differently/aggressively than you had played most of the game.
• I find your liking for DDS's 126 scummy, as I said. Can you explain what you liked?.
• I view the Thor NightKill attempt as a weak indication that you are scum, because scum would have to be afraid of a Town!you block.
• The similar reads D2 was something I did not notice in real time, only when I put your ISOs side-by-side to assess whether you were a team (in part because you did not call out the match - again a slight scumteam indication).
• You staying off the Thor wagon distances you, but I note you didnt push back real hard (basically saying you could see scumcase, but "are we sure" we shouldnt lynch Meji? -- a position I find odd now that it seems you mostly town Meji.

...which brings me to

wherein it probably is Flicker/brass, but I'm not ignoring meji just yet,

Im hoping there is more to come on this point. I have said I could see a Flicker-Brass team, but there were some interesting moments of non-coordination between the two slots. I would also like to see more of a case here, or one on Meji.

Right now, I am still inclined to believe in the Oxy-Elephant team. But I also think the town may well gain the most by sleeping - it at least outs information (whether my removing a mislynch, adding a track, or both). In other words, Im not yet confident enough to vote either Oxy or you myself, in part because I had towned both of you for most of the game based purely on individual playstyle, without considering the associations. If you are scum, well done. If you are town, help convince town!me to join a block with you again by building this case or calling attention to things Ive missed (like you did with Brass-Oxy).

[Irrelephant11]

Ughhhh turns out I don't have time to make another case today, sorry. I'll try again tomorrow

I agree I played differently Friday and somewhat today, too. That's intentional. I'm frustrated at the game state and feel like we've caught a scumslip, but by any measure at least one townie is lurking and all four of us have to get on the same page. I want to lynch scum for once and it's annoyinlgy difficult.

Last game day, I thought Meji was the scummiest player. I didn't push back hard against a Thor lynch because I thought your claim was likely true and therefore Thor's scumminess was high, not to mention a Thor/Meji team made sense to me. Today, I wouldn't say Meji is anywhere near the most pro-town player, but a most team tells seem weak, as we have all noted.

[Irrelephant11]

Oh also what's not to like about DDS's 126? He makes useful comments on multiple players in a way that advances the game. Unless you're just bothered that I townread DDS who was later replaced by Oxy who is now voting you? Like..?

Just noting this, too:

@Oxy - I’ll poke around for an article but would appreciate pointers too. It is counter to my own intuition. My thought is that I (as tracker) will die tonight regardless of actions today and my death provides almost no information we don’t have now (you would learn I’m town, but I don’t think my slot affects many others, especially as my only hard associatives are Meji and elephant).

Under your plan, we share reads, discuss merits but don’t lynch. This makes no sense - scum gets to both learn their relative position AND kill town. They won’t kill anyone except me given the risk of tracking. Brass points out the error here.

Under the plan of passing the day in silence, no information is advanced, and we go from mylo to lylo in essentially the same place as now.

Thus based only on subway thoughts I think we lynch

"No lynch would be bad"

SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED.

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

omewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

VOTE: teacher

I am now basically convinced of a Brass-Oxy team. I still think Brass makes the most sense to lynch. But I put my pool up there. I think we have at least the same 50% chance of hitting scum within it that we would have tomorrow.

"Oxy changing his mind on whether or not to lynch is proof-scum behavior!"

Right now, I am still inclined to believe in the Oxy-Elephant team. But I also think the town may well gain the most by sleeping - it at least outs information (whether my removing a mislynch, adding a track, or both). In other words, Im not yet confident enough to vote either Oxy or you myself, in part because I had towned both of you for most of the game based purely on individual playstyle, without considering the associations. If you are scum, well done. If you are town, help convince town!me to join a block with you again by building this case or calling attention to things Ive missed (like you did with Brass-Oxy).

"No lynch is our best course"

I should be doingo ther things, be back later

[teacher]

Wow, now I have to cite your potential partner. Nice Judo defense of them.

As Oxy noted when I wrote 802, information can change things. Not only have my views on likely scum changed to spots that I think are impossible to consensus lynch today (elephant + Oxy), but also it is apparent that I AM a possible consensus lynch today, which would kill town. Thus, I am using Oxy's stated no-lynch preference against a slot I suspect. If he is town, should not be so intensely tunneling and voting me when there is a legitimate 50% chance I am tracker and the lynch ends the game.

[teacher]

Oh also what's not to like about DDS's 126? He makes useful comments on multiple players in a way that advances the game.

I agree with the late JB and Nauci that I didnt think his comments were that useful, other than the case on me (which again shows that Flicker and Nauci/Brass's case on me could have gained traction, and so undercuts me being on their scum team). But thanks for answering the question.

I'm starting to scumread DDS for post #126.
A) I didn't do it to be annoying; I did it when I quote lots of stuff to make it easier to read. I'm going to take Irrelephant's advice tho and start just leaving the post number and comments. But regardless, this is a massive misrep and Attack on Person. Not to mention we aren't DISCUSSING stratagem, so I have no idea where that came from.
B) There's also an Attack on Person on Nauci. DDS seems to be trying to make players seem inept and their opinion trivial simply on the grounds that "they are bad posters." While the complaints about her being sick are a tad bothersome, they don't warrant THAT.
C) Aren't YOU discussing stratagem in your post, in your paragraph about NOT discussing stratagem? Besides, we are far beyond that topic. Only YOU are still hung up over it; my reasoning is that Thor could make opinion sound like fact because of his IC role. It is NOT a strat discussion.
D) That was obviously a joke, not a scumslip. He's not "lied multiple times," he's making a humorous statement, and I think you know it. This is a crappy placeholder vote.

1 - DDS coming out of lurk to post NAI "these people are annoying" AtE looks pretty bad. Had same reaction as JB

[Irrelephant11]

Re: 892
I'm not arguing that information can't change things. I'm saying that your attempt to throw shade on Oxy for something you are now doing is scummy (i.e. changing mind on lynching based on new information).

[teacher]

You’ll note I dropped it after he said the info from Meji changed his view. (But I didn’t really see anything new from Meji then). Good chainsaw defense tho.

[Irrelephant11]

You're right, he said that in 808. I don't see you dropping it, though, unless you mean you literally stopped talking about it, which is true from what I can find but not a reason to townread you.

what's a chainsaw defense?

I'm gonna be so annoyed if it's flicker/brass at this point

[brassherald]

what's a chainsaw defense?

Chainsaw defense is when you defend someone by attacking their accuser. It's considered a scum tell. I'm not sure it is because it is rather widespread on the site, including where I've seen it from too many people in the game for it to be only scum.

Also, as a reminder to Oxy, teacher and Irrelephant to a smaller degree, we are in MYLO, don't lose sight of the forest for the trees. In other words, don't get caught up in this 1v1 so much that you don't consider anyone else for a lynch today. Especially to teacher, who I really think is barking up the wrong tree with Oxy. He's been the towniest person left in the game, a change in tone at the end or not.

Also, 889 I have a question about, why can we not be in a world where one scum is on the wagon and one is off?

[Flicker]

In terms of an Irrelephant/Oxy scum team, there's a comment Oxy made at twilight D1 (post #353 - "Never lynch elephant, teacher") that I think makes it very unlikely. That's too bold a move of protection from one scum to another, IMO. (I know, I know, WIFOM.)

Here's my town case on Irrelephant so far. I did this pretty quickly in a text document, so there's no links, sorry. Also, I only got through D1, and I read somewhere that early game play gives you the most info, so I might just stop here? (Also, I'm lazy, and TBF I never promised a full ISO.)

Spoiler: Irrelephant's Day 1 ISO

49 - Not a lot there, although I'm slightly inclined to think the info about availability is townie? Could be NAI though.
64 - First substantive post - quotes and engages with four players, engages the other four. Good start, esp. the TGP catch.
69 - "Oops! all townies" scum team idea. Still agree with my defense of it earlier, and also it reads a lot like an (over?)eager townie trying to make sense of the big 1v1.
75 & 80 - Follow-up on questioning of Thor from 64. Notes he's already leaning away from scum team theory, which feels like townish uncertainty.
104 - Quotes and engages four players again. Unless teacher's lying, it's still an "oops! all townies" scum pool, but I think understandable given the claim hadn't come yet and general D1 play.
106 - Engages me on my reading of Thor v James, provides an updated read on same, and votes James.
108, 111, 112 & 140 - Engaging Thor on Thor v James, admits confirmation bias/paranoia against Thor, also engages with Meji and Nauci.
141, 142 & 171 - Engages and quotes two players, engages with replacement player and makes note of how his reads differ from the previous slot owner.
172 - Engages with another player (also, as a general impression, I feel like Irrelephant has tried to engage Meji the most, which feels good.)
183, 185 & 186 - engages Oxy on his read of me. Personally, highly appreciated.
188 - Engages me on my Nauci read, which TBF I hadn't made particularly clear.
204 - More Oxy engagement re: me. Nothing in these exchanges so far feels SvS to me.
205 - Full reads list, seems pretty fair to me.
207 - Engages with three more experienced players about fourth SE and Oxy flip flopping their slots' reads, and continues exchange about Oxy's read on me.
210, 292, 341 - Not much here, mostly clarification and continuation of reads, more transparency about availability.
346 - Engages two players, gives updated reads.
356 - Twilight post with if!scum/if!town reads.

TL;DR

- So far in the ISO, Irrelephant engages with other players fairly consistently, focuses on areas of concern without losing sight of the bigger picture, and is transparent about reads and posting availability. Nothing in this makes me feel bad.

Okay, now I'm gonna go through the weekend's posts and actually respond to stuff, even though re-reading it will probably make me want to pull my hair out.

[teacher]

Yay other players!!! But darn, blow my theories.

@brass-I’m interested in your Oxy read. Because elephant had been my towniest until the Friday associative issue. oxy has been active, sure, but I don’t see much that couldn’t cut either way. As for one on, one off - I don’t see it. I can’t see Oxy with literally anyone off. Elephant is more flexible, but barely. He could be paired with you maybe. But I see better teams either on or off.

@Flicker- thanks for the elephant analysis, which I also agree with. But look at the Discussion of you- could this be a late day discussion designed to build BOTHs towncred over a spit unlikely to gain traction in the mid-afternoon? I genuinely don’t know, which is why I’m inclined to sleep.