Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[skitter30]

lynch scum!draynth today, lose skitter (or maybe dino/nsg) in the night, and just start lynching unconfirmed players until we win

so where do you go tomorrow after draynth flips scum? and what happens if he flips town?

[pinturicchio]

@skitter don't lose your time. Even if Oxy is town, he's atrociously wrong on how he's dealing with the claims.

@Oxy who do we lynch today out of me, skitter and Draynth; vote for that player. That's all we need.

[Oxy]

lynch scum!draynth today, lose skitter (or maybe dino/nsg) in the night, and just start lynching unconfirmed players until we win

draynth flips scum, we have mathdino, nsg, pin, skitter all confirmed (minus the night kill).
We lynch in whoever is left, likely a pool of {NM, UD, Sunshine, AP}, in that order (left lynched first).

If he flips town, then we lynch in {skitter, pin} and we start figuring out the game

[Oxy]

@Oxy who do we lynch today out of me, skitter and Draynth; vote for that player. That's all we need.

read my posts or don't ask me questions.

[pinturicchio]

I'm not asking you a question, I'm telling you to vote your scumread out of us three, period.

[Oxy]

I'm not asking you a question, I'm telling you to vote your scumread out of us three, period.

oh, well. I beg your majesty's pardon.

[pinturicchio]

Ok I loled. Sorry, I'm being too aggresive. Could you please vote someone, ideally UglyDuck?

[Sunshine13]

lol so for srs what is the plan? We’ve got Dino pushing for a non-Draynth lynch, fair enough but it has problems, but scum have been shown to be a bit rubbish on N1 so we can hope for some more of that on N2.

I have no problem with a UD or NM lynch today.

Pedit: also for srs Oxy, what’s the point in the passive-aggression?

[Oxy]

Glad I could make you smile, mate. =)

I've made my thoughts clear about why we should lynch draynth. Math is legit good at this setup stuff, so if math says we still don't lynch draynth today, then I'll hop on either UD or NM - whatever the consensus decides. I won't hold things up any longer.

p.edit I don't really understand the question. Do you mean the I beg your pardon comment? I bristled. it happens.

[skitter30]

If we leave draynth until tomorrow, and the team is something like {Pintu, sunshine, AP}, we might lose this in 5-player lylo with an oxy mislynch.
(

scum kills skitter N2

, we lynch draynth D3, scum kills MD, we lynch Pintu D4, scum kills ruru, 5 man of {AP, Sunshine, NSG, UglyDuck, Oxy} finds an oxy/uglyduck lynch often enough)

/paranoia off

I guess what I'm having trouble with is that this feels like you're undermining pin's credibility a bit.

I'm low-key weirded out that even in your paranoia-fueled scenario, you seem to be making the assumption that I'm town.

Also I'm wondering what happened to NM here. Unless you're assuming NM gets lynched today?

you're not confirmed from my point of view.

You preempted my claim yesterday because you thought I was scummy and that you could win the 1v1 (you were right) - Draynth is a similar situation.

You're dead wrong about me with seemingly no interest in reevaluating

And there are multiple teams in which this gives scum!you a good shot at a 5-player lylo mislynch.

It's not THAT far fetched.

And like you aren't having this reaction to me?

And the 'it't not THAT far fetched' kinda feels like you're looking for reasons to scumread pin tbh.

p-edit: although it might just be you're having a spat with pin? idk

[pinturicchio]

Glad I could make you smile, mate. =)

I've made my thoughts clear about why we should lynch draynth. Math is legit good at this setup stuff, so if math says we still don't lynch draynth today, then I'll hop on either UD or NM - whatever the consensus decides. I won't hold things up any longer.

p.edit I don't really understand the question. Do you mean the I beg your pardon comment? I bristled. it happens.

Can you vote UD or NM right now? It's for a science project I'm doing

[Oxy]

I'm low-key weirded out that even in your paranoia-fueled scenario, you seem to be making the assumption that I'm town.

actually, it's kind of the opposite.

I'm assuming that you're the most likely D3 lynch if draynth flips town, so you do less damage as fake claim than scum!pin. If that assumption is backwards, then you can replace the conspiracy story with scum!skitter

[Oxy]

@pin sure, why not
VOTE: uglyduck
L-2

[skitter30]

I'm low-key weirded out that even in your paranoia-fueled scenario, you seem to be making the assumption that I'm town.

actually, it's kind of the opposite.

I'm assuming that you're the most likely D3 lynch if draynth flips town

,

so you do less damage as fake claim than scum!pin

. If that assumption is backwards, then you can replace the conspiracy story with scum!skitter

Yeah I think the bolded is true. I'm having trouble parsing the italics.

[Oxy]

so you do less damage as fake claim than scum!pin.

if the lynch order is draynth -> skitter -> pin until someone flips red,
then scum!draynth results in 0 PR mislynches before a scum flip,
scum!skitter results in 1 PR mislynch before a scum flip
scum!pin results in 2 PR mislynches before a scum flip.

[skitter30]

Ah, got it. So scum!pin is the worst-case scneario that probably won't get resolved for like two days is what you're trying to say?

Whereas if we just lynch scum!draynth today, we won't have to deal with that mess?

[Sunshine13]

I have issues with math’s plan but I can’t voice it ‘cause it helps scum more than town. But it kinda should’ve already occurred to scum what I mean, but they messed up N1 so maybe it didn’t.

Okay. Maybe if we change the question a bit...

Of the consensus lynches today (appearing at this point to be UD and NM) which one would we have less of an issue mislynching if that were to be the case?

[Oxy]

@skitter actually, I guess I haven't calculated what happens if you're scum and we lynch outside of pr's.

I cut the analysis out of deference to Sunshine, but it's still less damaging because of the extra IC that cop!pin provides.

[Oxy]

Ah, got it. So scum!pin is the worst-case scneario that probably won't get resolved for like two days is what you're trying to say?

Whereas if we just lynch scum!draynth today, we won't have to deal with that mess?

Yes. Obviously, all of this is a lot less worrisome if we lynch scum today (assuming lynch outside of draynth). It's the D2 mislynch scenario that's scary.

But the game state seems super complacent for scum team {draynth, nm, ud}

Are we all assuming that they have all just given up?

[skitter30]

I have issues with math’s plan but I can’t voice it ‘cause it helps scum more than town. But it kinda should’ve already occurred to scum what I mean, but they messed up N1 so maybe it didn’t.

Okay. Maybe if we change the question a bit...

Of the consensus lynches today (appearing at this point to be UD and NM) which one would we have less of an issue mislynching if that were to be the case?

If both were town, UD is lynchbait and NM would be getting policy/compromise votes imo.

The fact that there are like no votes on NM right now is really weird and part of what's making me kinda :/ about the gamestate.

And like when someone like oxy votes ud over nm when prompted it kinda makes me wonder why so many people are avoiding nm.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Not_Mafia
Mathdino seal of approval

[skitter30]

But the game state seems super complacent for scum team {draynth, nm, ud}

Are we all assuming that they have all just given up?

yes, and that's why I'm a little weirded out cuz that means we have two wagons on scum right now and like the gamestate feels weird for that to be happening. and if we're wrong on one of them, you low-key seem to be encouraging that narrative and are like pushing ud.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: not_mafia

i wonder if open 711 "no we can't lynch scum today we have to wait three days" will happen again

[skitter30]

I really want to be voting draynth now :/

VOTE: not_mafia

L-2 I think

If I die overnight draynth gets like autolynched tomorrow, right?

[Sunshine13]

There’s more about UD hat’s scummy than NM, I think. But that’s because NM has made less than a handful of very content-lite posts.

I guess I’d prefer UD’s posts over NMs... not really anything?

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Pedit: oi oi

L-1 will remove if a problem ‘cause I’m not used to hammers.