Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Finally, Flicker, I don’t view Oxys end of day “never lynch” as undercutting team just because elephant truly was (with exception of Meji) universally Townes at that point.

[Flicker]

Spoiler: A wall of many small responses to the weekend

then almost 60 posts later at 250 she finally votes her one scum read, citing wanting to have a reason for James' scum read on her, rather than citing her own scum read on James.

I wanted to give James time to get his read on me in, in case someone quick hammered. I also didn't think I needed to state the case on James at that point.

For all NK kept saying he love loved teacher and we should follow teacher's lead . . . . he jailkept teacher?

Meji lock town

This seems like a weak reason to read Meji as town, much less lock town. Just as easy for scum to call out the inconsistency and set up teacher's mislynch.

I dont see Meji-(Oxy, Elephant, Flicker) as possible due to votes. And I dont see Meji-Brass as possible due to Meji's Nauci tunnel and your entry. So Meji is town.

Also a weak reason to town Meji. Any one of us could have bussed Meji D2, NK15 said something about Meji's tunnel being scum-like, and I don't see anything in Brass' entry precluding a team, either.

Feeling bad about this. As the first person to throw suspicion Oxy's way I was excited to hear your case - I don't think scum makes a case on someone who isn't an easy mislynch, it seems much more likely to come from genuine town- but you're basically backing off the first chance you get. Seems more like you were hoping for someone else to get behind this and are disappointed to realize your mislynch options are being narrowed by town

All I know is that we've lynched wrong two days in a row and

cannot

lynch wrong today. Also, of my two scum reads D1, one is the uncc'd tracker and the other was a VT. That's really blown the wind out of my scum hunting sails.

Today’s shared push on me. Could be scum trying for a mislynch win, but like I said the case is legit.

Another strike against an Oxy/Irrelephant team - again, this is too bold a move from a scum team, IMO.

I'll answer your posts in full before bed, but to correct one thing - Meji is clear because she pointed out why you must be scum.

Scum might distance today - they might even bus - but I don't see them giving the solve like that. If scum!meji is busing you here by outing why your result is wrong, that's on another level.

Or Meji's scum and teacher's not, and she's setting up the easiest mislynch left in the game.

serious request:

Can I see a show of hands of people who would make those final posts when in NK's position, and then proceed to jail teacher?

48 hours with nothing happening in the game is a long time to change your mind, though. And I think I've already demonstrated that I'm enough of a flibbertigibbet to pull off a 180 of this nature.

VOTE: No Lynch

I wrote all this other stuff up already, but the closer to the end I got, the more I feel like this is the only play. Town is not on the same page to lynch anyone, and I doubt we will be, so I'd rather we choose not to lynch now, while the timing is best (since weekends tend to be V/LA for at least a couple people), than grind this out to deadline in 9 days (!) and give ourselves so many more posts to deal with.

I agree with brass that the best play would have been to agree to a no lynch from the start of day, to give scum little information, but better now than later.

[Oxy]

This seems like a weak reason to read Meji as town, much less lock town. Just as easy for scum to call out the inconsistency and set up teacher's mislynch.

this read is obviously based on a world where teacher is scum.

[Flicker]

I just realized there's a lot of stuff about the cases on me that I haven't adequately addressed (like the rest of brass' initial assessment of me - I quoted the only part I had an immediate response for, but I know not addressing all of it is fishy), that I

have

to address if town is to win. I've just been feeling a little defeated by all the suspicions on me, and I'm not sure how to get y'all to trust me.

But, I'm not saying anything else from here on out that isn't about convincing people to no lynch and end the day. Scum has plenty of info; they don't need a drop more.

[Oxy]

This is real advice, though unsolicited. Do with it as you like.

The best defense in this game is always to scum hunt.

If there is part of a case against you that you can easily and strongly refute, go for it.

Otherwise, just work on solving the game, and you'll look townie doing it.

[teacher]

If all town-aligned players invest into the game, and are truly trying to figure out who is and is not mafia, then it becomes massively harder for mafia players to blend in and either actively drive mislynches or sit back and watch town destroy itself; moreover, their insincere attempts to pretend to be trying to sort and solve players’ alignments stands out starkly against a town that is collectively engaged in sincere, energetic and aggressive attempts to find the mafia. If most to all town-aligned players are inactive, or lazy, or just choose to let someone else do the work, then it becomes much harder for town to win.

cough. cough. [several names under breath.] cough. cough.

[Flicker]

I think that's the nicest thing you've said to me all game, Oxy. I will take your advice under consideration.

Teacher, I hope that's not directed at me (but I understand if it is).

What do both of you think of no lynching?

[teacher]

I have been moving more and more towards it all day (as Elephant has accused me of).

[Flicker]

But you're not willing to vote it yet. Why? It's lower stakes than voting for another player. (Unless I'm missing something?)

[teacher]

I am inclined to. But I truly do want more out of Meji and Brass. I get that, if no lynch, you dont want to give scum info. But at the same time, given the low amounts of participation from these slots historically, I think anything they offer helps town better sort, and so is a net positive. Id also like to reopen the salted tracking thoughts question. So Im not going to vote it probably for another day or two.

[Oxy]

Id also like to reopen the salted tracking thoughts question.

? what question?

[Meji Fan]

It just means we get another Night Kill of WIFOM to deal with and do it all over again

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.03

Teacher (1) Oxy,
No Lynch (1) Flicker,
Not Voting (4) Irrelephant11, teacher, brassherald, Meji Fan

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[teacher]

Id also like to reopen the salted tracking thoughts question.

? what question?

If anyone wants to provide any thoughts on who I should track, which I will digest with large grains of salt. But can wait til later.

[Irrelephant11]

It just means we get another Night Kill of WIFOM to deal with and do it all over again

This. I think which players want a no lynch is somewhat telling, though almost too obvious to be alignment indicative, though maybe that's part of it? MYLO wifom is hard.

Flicker, you seem sure that town will do better after a nightkill. Talk me through this. I n a pretend world where:

A, E, I, and O are town while U and Y are scum,

and A, E, and I say U is scum while O, U, and Y say E is scum, how does a nightkill help more than playing today out? (this is intentionally not a perfect parallel to our game, it's just a talking point)

Seems like one of Ab/Ef/Ij always dies, leaving the game easier for scum to win. Until now, all players but you have shared lotsa reads info, so scum only has 1 source of guesswork overnight, or 0 if somehow you're town and die tonight. What's left for town to gain from this?

[Irrelephant11]

lol EBWOP "one of A/E/I always dies" (I had originally named them Ab, Ef, Ij, Op, Uv, and Yz but it was hard to read... anyway)

[teacher]

Seems like one of Ab/Ef/Ij always dies, leaving the game easier for scum to win.

Yes to the first part, no to the second part, I think/hope. Because the death should educate O that scum needed to keep the one town willing to mislynch alive. (But of course, both WIFOM and our gamestate is slightly different).

Why Im on no lynch right now is that there are better odds of a correct lynch tomorrow. Today, for me, I have my own inclinations and reads as you know, but realistically all of you are 40% scummy. Tomorrow, assuming there is a kill, you all are 50% scummy and I might track an actual scum. (For you all, leaving aside inclinations, Im 50/50 today, and I will remain there tomorrow if Im still alive but you can better assess my partnerships if Im alive or my reads if I die).

[Oxy]

lso, as a reminder to Oxy, teacher and Irrelephant to a smaller degree, we are in MYLO

I'm pretty locked into the world where

teacher + flicker are scum

with a smaller chance that teacher + brass are scum

and an unlikely world in which I am quite cross with NK and the team is exactly,

Flicker + Meji

I've tried my best to reevaluate, but all roads lead to rome.

So I'm happy with a teacher lynch

In a world where 3-4 people are willing to bet their lives on town!teacher, I'm good with a flicker lynch.

I'm getting less and less eager to No Lynch the more people continue to not want teacher lynched because I don't really trust ya'll to do that after I'm killed in the night

But I could be convinced with assurances from brass/elephant/meji. maybe

[teacher]

@Oxy: Genuine question why not Elephant-Brass?

In trying to decide who to track, Ive tried to build teams for all slots (obviously I have excluded myself):

• Oxy -> Only Elephant
  
• Elephant -> Oxy, Brass
  
• Brass-> Flicker, Elephant, (very distant Meji)
  
• Flicker -> Brass (possible Meji)

I still see Oxy and Elephant as pushing a mislynch, and both doing so in a way that they have admitted is inconsistent with earlier playstyles (elephant's aggressiveness) or views (Oxy on nolynch). Oxy's seeking a commitment is just setting up the mislynch for D4 rather than D3. But Im not voting because (a) I want Brass to come back and catch up from the weekend, (b) I dont think my reads can be a consensus lynch today, and (c) sleeping increases town odds.

[Irrelephant11]

Oxy, tell me more about teacher/brass - I'd been discounting it but don't remember why. Do you have a case laid out at this point?

I think it's very unlikely that teacher is not scum at this point. We've said a lot of words this game day but NK15 jailing teacher still sounds like a quick lie thought up when most players pressured teacher into giving up last night's results. It contradicts NK15 directly, it gives the least amount of information, and it both defends and busses Flicker (coming across as both "I suspect Flicker" AND "I didn't see Flicker do a nightkill"). The obvious move here is to vote teacher, and I feel that no lynch would only make it harder to hit scum: yes, random chance hits scum more often with one fewer player, but it also takes just one wrong town player to lose the game. Also, the above post directly contradicts the point of no lynch - hide info from scum so they make the revealing choice. I don't understand laying out all teacher-POV scumteams while aiming for a no lynch.

I did promise to case a not-teacher scumteam today, though, so I will at some point.

[Oxy]

@teacher elephant brass is not a thing because elephant is my strongest town read, independent of all association tells.

@irrlepehant Brass can be teacher's partner by poe (simply by not being you or meji). I never spent much (any, really) trying to sort Nauci, and teacher vs brass early this day could have been faked - they were having a pretty irrelevant conversation while lightly pushing on one another, and teacher clearly believes that light pushing is a meaningful reason to believe two people aren't partners.

It's basically the absence of a reason for why they cannot be partners.

[teacher]

elephant is my strongest town read, independent of all association tells.

This is my biggest problem with your play today. At the start of D2, you said they were back on the table. Now they are back off the table. I genuinely cannot see why your read (which I had shared) makes it an impossibility. Instead, I see the early avoidance of each other's slots, followed by coordination, as indicative of a team defense.

For the towns reading (but not posting), I can answer anything you want. But I will leave you with two thoughts from the dead, and insightful, IC:

Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch [teacher] tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.

I'd still pretty much suggest lynching Oxy tomorrow.

[teacher]

But, oh, this post.....

Oxy, tell me more about teacher/brass.

Keeping two team possibilities alive so either or both slots can still vote a mislynch.

NK15 jailing teacher still sounds like a quick lie thought up when most players pressured teacher into giving up last night's results.

Oh wait, the pressures came from Flicker/Brass-my supposed teammates-and then the two I have fingered as a team, and who keep pressuring a mislynch.

It contradicts NK15 directly

Again, no it doesnt. See 822. You still havent explained why that interpretation is necessarily wrong. Plus, if your interpretation is NECESSARILY right, how in the hell would I both (a) not be assigned the nightkill AND (b) consequently know not to claim JK. I legit dont see how I am not assigned nightkill given NK's words, and I legit dont know how scum!me, knowing I killed, doesnt claim SOME actual action, since my claim does contradict the SURFACE of NK's words.

it both defends and busses Flicker

Or it is accurate. I note you entirely omit my twilight crumb. Yes, I had suspected Flicker (and still do, but less so). I said who I would track so that NK and I would not hit the same spot.

The obvious move here is to vote teacher, and I feel that no lynch would only make it harder to hit scum

Really? You think it would be harder to lynch me tomorrow???? Right now I have only one defender, and the rest of the slots have suspected me. I remain a juicy mislynch target. Town has uphill sledding either way, but at least survives until D4 with a sleep.

the above post directly contradicts the point of no lynch - hide info from scum so they make the revealing choice. I don't understand laying out all teacher-POV scumteams while aiming for a no lynch.

I dont think my post revealed any information I hadnt said many times over today. Tell me what you think was new? I was just pushing Oxy for why he steadfastly refuses to suspect you when there is a 40% chance your scum. I trust my reads, but not that much.

I did promise to case a not-teacher scumteam today, though, so I will at some point.

I look forward to it. Right now all I am seeing is push push push on a mislynch.

[Irrelephant11]

To start, teacher, I have a proposal. Let's spend 24 hours town-reading each other. This will include my team-casing outside of your scumminess, and your response to it. I think you're the scummiest in the game currently, and you seem to think Oxy/me share equal parts most scummy. But if either of us were town who was 100% sure, we'd have voted each other by now.

I refuse to lose to a completely lurker scum team by tunneling on each other, so regardless of if you accept, I'm gonna take the next 24 hours to read town motivation in each of your posts and find scum elsewhere. Let's see if anything new comes to light.

If not, I'm probably voting teacher before the game day ends. I don't see no lynch being as helpful as it is risky, though if any player other than my two scummiest reads make an argument for it, I'll reconsider.

[Oxy]

This is my biggest problem with your play today. At the start of D2, you said they were back on the table. Now they are back off the table.

Yeah - because reevaluating someone and coming to the same conclusion is impossible, amirite?