Open 724 - Pick Your Power X/Y [Endgame]

[Eddie Cane]

{Mathdino, Ausuka, Lalendra, Myloninja13, The Janitor, Lovebird, Ircher}

3 scum in here. Mathdino is probably not one of them.

[Ircher]

1.

My predecessor is hilariously town lol if I see any votes on him I'm probably fosing them

Page 17. Skimmed a fair bit of this. I think Ausuka and Ircher has a scum probably, definitely not SvS though.

I disagree that your predecessor was hilariously town; in fact, they are the only slot I have like zero read on currently. As far as Ausuka and I having one scum between us... Not sure where you get that from... Would you like to elaborate?

2.

Ircher's sliding a lot as of page 18.

I believe that the majority of the thread believes the opposite. Like seriously, you had apparently zero issue with my starting posts, but then you find my later posts not so good? This honestly makes little sense to me.

Didn't you give way more reads in 1900? I'll need to pull that up I think

No, I did not, as I can see you found out. Also, I stopped playing mafia for like a year (with the exception of the recent marathon weekend); it is possible my meta has changed some. (As far as read confidence goes, it

really

depends on the game.)

3.

Does anybody disagree with this?

(Referring to his reads in 764.) I mean, I disagree with you being town to some degree. I also disagree with Mutant being town. The rest seem fine for the most part.

4.

Why is Lalendra the big wagon?

I don't remember them giving much of any impression.

You gave the reason yourself... Bigger question--what is wrong with the wagon? You townread the majority of the wagon, and I don't remember you specifically townreading Lalendra to a large extent.

5.

(which basically consists of "i don't like wagoning lurkers,

we have scumreads available

, lalendra is basically null")

Oh really?

Then why are you not pushing those scumreads. (I mean, if you are talking about me, you have said you scumread me all, but you aren't really pushing your scumread of me in a way that is leading anywhere.) The Janitor wagon has existed all game, and it has basically gone...

nowhere

. And I don't see you pushing any other scumreads.

6.

[what] is ausuka's alignment

I say more likely town than scum. But I do agree that their alignment isn't really clear at the moment.

7.

The LYNCH today should be between Ircher/Lalendra in my opinion,

Umm.... Why? (Or more as to, elaborate on why I/Lalendra are the two best choices for the lynch.)

8.

Aarrrgggghhhh this wagon is irresistable
Lalendraslot--we have unfinisher business.
VOTE: Ircher

Seriously?

9.

Janitor is probably the safest lynch tbh
Copcheck Ircher, Vig Ausuka/Lovebird?

I don't really disagree with this course of action. I would prefer Lovebird being vigged over Ausuka, but I guess that really doesn't matter as much. (And, while I have my doubts about Janitor being scum, it probably is the best lynch overall.)

Just, if I don't get lynched, I would prefer not to be vigged, okay?

10.

Why would we vig me?

Why not? It is not necessarily (at least imo) that you have acted scummy so much as being hard to read.

11. Lovebird in 832 gives a reads list. --> I'm not so sure about these reads; they definitely are that inline with mine...

12.

pedit: I would NOT vote a null slot if one of my scumreads were wagonning it, especially in THIS setup (ʃ⌣́,⌣́ƪ)

Fair enough.

[Ircher]

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

SaskeIsMyYaoiKismesis

(+65%) - Really like this slot's contributions in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Mathdino

(-5%) - Most of the reads presented have been based on the draft which is fine I guess... For now... Not sure what to make of the push for Beefster lynch as a Policy Lynch versus just a regular lynch--I'm not opposed to it, but why make it a policy lynch versus a scum lynch? I'm admittedly probably just biased here. First 100 posts of the game still seem to coincide with the beliefs that I have expressed regarding this game. 118 is a good post and perhaps the best post (in my opinion) that you've made so far. Now I'm completely mixed here. Okay, to be quite honest, it will probably be impossible for me to get a good read here, so I think I'm just gonna leave it at that. (i.e.: mixed, inreconcilable read) Setup aside, we get posts like 621 and 636 where Mathdino is basically white-knighting (perhaps an exaggeration) Lalendra's actions this game. It is fine to defend another player; however, do not attempt to derail an entire wagon without sufficient reason. Plus, I haven't seen you do this for anyone else this game, so I am quite suspicious. Also, I probably should acknowledge that a few things that Mathdino has said regarding the setup do make sense and increase our chances of winning with the information

we have at present

. 821 is a good course of action tbh.

Brassherald

Eddie Cane

(-20%) - Honestly feel that this slot is scum; however, this is more gut-based versus fact-based.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Taly

(+55%) - I've posted my thoughts on their 218. Also brings up a good point in 416

The Worst

(+50%) - I didn't like this slot's contributions too much early on, but I am starting to lean town here after looking at the worst's interactions with the Janitor. Lots of fluff-filled posts, but not necessarily in a scum way; there is info buried within. Yeah, definitely a bunch of good observations from this slot.

Iconeum

(+44%) - Poor initial posts, but not enough to go by. 178 is a decent post though. Not saying that scum can't, but the way Iconeum is pushing the Janitor case registers on the townside to me.

Almost50

davesaz

(+40%) - Minor townread for the suggestion made in 75. Tbqh, not sure if this slot has done much better in terms of reads... I townread the self-voting shenanigans even if that isn't necessarily alignment indicative in general...

Ausuka

(+32%) - Minor townread because posts have been in general good, but nothing close to a solid read yet here. I'd also like to note that the fact they are willing to reconsider whether I am scum is probably town-motivated; I don't really see scum missing the golden opportunity that is wagoning me.

Lalendra

(-31%) - Has a few posts spanning 221 to 224. Seems to have some kind of townread on SIMYK as of 223, but hasn't given anything substantial in terms of reads yet. I like The Worst's case against this slot in 635.

Lovebird

(-32%) - Very few posts. The first one was fine. The second one is technically fine, but not really useful. Then we have 270 where he quotes a post that I interpret as an RVS vote from Ico and calls it scummy. 277 is a non-answer to what I consider an otherwise valid question. Probably is your meta though to provide zero explanations which basically means I won't be able to read you at all this game.

Mutantdevle

(-40%) - Just look at how many of his first few posts deal almost entirely with the setup and express almost zero reads. See 227 to 244. That is about 15 posts dealing entirely with the setup; tell me how that is NOT an issue. But, to be fair, he does finally present some reads in 249, and while I think they are fairly easy and "safe" reads to make, I can't exactly penalize him for it at the moment.

Beefster

Myloninja13

(-50%) - I am not a big fan of 16 (role fishing? really?). Then we have 220. It is not necessarily a bad post, but the first line kinda confuses me (on an analysis level), and I'm not sure where Beefster is getting a Janitor/SIMYK scum team from in that post. After noticing only 3 posts though, I am not as confident in this read.

The Janitor

(-56%) - First two posts of his really don't register well with me (105 and 111). Subsequent posts continue to not really be good. I don't like the wagon progression on this slot, so that is a plus for The Janitor.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

I still currently prefer Lalendra despite having a greater scumread on The Janitor, primarily because again, they have been wagoned basically the entire game, and the Janitor wagon had no real counter at its peak.

[Eddie Cane]

Yes, your starting posts weren't bad and are about as awkward as I'd expect from you.

Ausukas push on you doesnt feel like buddies. You're both individually scummy slots. You're scummier. Not sure what needs an explanation there.

Where did I say something was wrong with the wagon?

[Mathdino]

Oh really? Then why are you not pushing those scumreads. (I mean, if you are talking about me, you have said you scumread me all, but you aren't really pushing your scumread of me in a way that is leading anywhere.) The Janitor wagon has existed all game, and it has basically gone... nowhere. And I don't see you pushing any other scumreads.

Mathdino: Let's not wagon Lalendra, let's wagon scumreads like Janitor/Ircher instead.

Ircher: WHY ARE YOU NOT PUSHING YOUR SCUMREADS?

the janitor wagon is dead

also thanks for the PR softclaim

[mutantdevle]

I would honestly vig davesaz at the moment BUT that's JUST because I know my scumread is unique at this point and noone would lynch him... ლ(ಠ_ಠლ)

Then you should not be allowed near the vig role.

[Ircher]

I mean, you questioned why the wagon was so big...

Pedit: ??? (Although, doesn't the draft already tell you such with a high degree of confidence?)

Pedit2: No comment.

[Eddie Cane]

nah saskes a good player that's just their way of saying they fos Dave, they wouldn't do an anti town hero vig

[Mathdino]

you already commented

asking to be lynched rather than vigged when we had no intention of ever vigging you is literally a PR softclaim

[Eddie Cane]

I mean, you questioned why the wagon was so big...

Pedit: ??? (Although, doesn't the draft already tell you such with a high degree of confidence?)

Pedit2: No comment.

I asked why it was the wagon because it was the only big wagon and I had no clue why it happened...

[Mathdino]

mr eddie motherfucking cane

do we lynch a guaranteed PR like ircher

or just lynch janitor and see what ircher does at night

[Ircher]

I still don't understand what you dislike about my later posts... But okay, your explanation for why you were fine with my earlier posts suffices for now.

Pedit: Oh, that wasn't a softclaim. I can just would prefer not being vigged if I survived the lynch. It really isn't a super unreasonable expectation that someone would consider vigging me, after all. (I mean, now, it would be, but when I was reading then, that was not the case.)

@Eddie: Okay

Pedit2: ...........The latter probably, though I'm biased.

[Mathdino]

{Mathdino, Ausuka, Lalendra, Myloninja13, The Janitor, Lovebird, Ircher}

notable that ausuka and lovebird cannot be scum together

removing myself from this list that creates

scum in {Ausuka/Lovebird, Lalendra, Myloninja, Janitor, Ircher}

only 5 slots for scum feels wrong

these are ally uncharismatic lurky lynchbaity players

who's deepwolfing

[Mathdino]

these are ally uncharismatic lurky lynchbaity players

*these are all

[Eddie Cane]

probably janitor I guess even though in my last game we mislynched prs twice and still won . Is it optimal to get claims in this setup?

[Ircher]

I hardly think that my activity constitutes lurking, fyi. Not even active lurking really.

[Mathdino]

yes, for the purpose of leashing night actions and baiting nightkills

eddie cane see comments on the lynchpool

how the fuck is the lynchpool ALL the standard lynchbaity people

[Eddie Cane]

{Mathdino, Ausuka, Lalendra, Myloninja13, The Janitor, Lovebird, Ircher}

notable that ausuka and lovebird cannot be scum together

removing myself from this list that creates

scum in {Ausuka/Lovebird, Lalendra, Myloninja, Janitor, Ircher}

only 5 slots for scum feels wrong

these are ally uncharismatic lurky lynchbaity players

who's deepwolfing

I usually get 2 scum in these PoE pools and the other rbecomes obvious through associations. Ausuka and Ircher also cant ve xcum together idt. I dont rhink any of them besides Lalendra and Mylo are lurkers though, the janitor ircher ausuka and kind of lovebird were pretty consistently arounc

[Eddie Cane]

I mean like

do you disagree with any of my townreads?

[mutantdevle]

asking to be lynched rather than vigged when we had no intention of ever vigging you is literally a PR softclaim

Can you like not point this stuff out thanks?

I understand that you of the belief that scum are going to spot these things anyway but there will always be the chance that they miss it. You pointing out ruins that chance.

I, for one, didn't notice this until you pointed it out.


Also, just as a general warning to everyone: DON'T. FUCKING. CRUMB. OR. SOFT.

Scum WILL find you. They may even figure out your exact role. They're good at it in this setup and so many people in the past have been killed for it.

[Mathdino]

okay good i agree that there's 2 scum in there

i just don't think we're at a gamesolve yet, things still feel wrong

i don't currently disagree with your townreads no

i haven't actually ISO'd mutant tbh
if A50 scum-replaced out then yeah davesaz will claim scum down the line

i kinda wanna leave davesaz alive so he can solve the setup using pure logic and superior traits yknow

[Eddie Cane]

I also didnt notice that one FTR. Dave probably did though with his age, education, and experience.

[Mathdino]

Also, just as a general warning to everyone: DON'T. FUCKING. CRUMB. OR. SOFT.

Scum WILL find you. They may even figure out your exact role. They're good at it in this setup and so many people in the past have been killed for it.

i tentatively agree with this?

i had a huge leg up on scum actually the last time i played this setup

but that's because i was in a neighbourhood and the neighborizer was getting other claims elsewhere and we were coming up with secret night action plans, etc etc

so i'm pretty confident i'm better at catching crumbs than the scumteam this game

but as a general statement yes please don't soft

[Mathdino]

I also didnt notice that one FTR. Dave probably did though with his age, education, and experience.

it's age / experience / education get it right

i will have you know that that was a VERY STRESSFUL GAME for my team

[Ircher]

Also, just as a general warning to everyone: DON'T. FUCKING. CRUMB. OR. SOFT.

It wasn't a

soft

.