Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.04

Teacher (1) Oxy,
Flicker (1) Teacher,
No Lynch (1) Flicker,
Not Voting (3) Irrelephant11, brassherald, Meji Fan

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

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[teacher]

who do you want to lynch

Answer in T-22 hrs.

[Irrelephant11]

how does a pairing between Brass and me make sense given my actual push on Nauci D2 (which Flicker defended), and the push on Brass D3 (until Elephant made the DDS-Nauci point)

I know this question was to Oxy but I haven't explored it enough so I'm going to check it out at some point today

Also Flicker and Meji's last two posts are so bleh I almost just want to call them a team for it. Seems unlikely, but

I'm still in my 24-hour "teacher is town" period and I'm gonna spend a little bit trying to understand NK15 jailing teacher while I believe teacher. This should be fun,

[Meji Fan]

teacher, brass or oxy

Except I haven't really decided who I like best as I'm not sure whether I can buy teacher now

[teacher]

I'm still in my 24-hour "teacher is town" period and I'm gonna spend a little bit trying to understand NK15 jailing teacher while I believe teacher. This should be fun,

Hint - due to the surface of his words, scum!me is definitely assigned the night actions. Thus, he confirms my slot either way: if he dies, Im town; if he lives, Im mafia.

By the way, you promised a town!me read too. Not trying to give you more work, just trying to defend the mislynch possibility by all possible routes.

[teacher]

Except I haven't really decided who I like best as I'm not sure whether I can buy teacher now

Seriously, Meji - please ASK me any question you want, actually EXPLAIN the townread on Flicker, CASE Brass's slot Post mid-day 1, or DO SOMETHING. I *think* youre town, but the hardlurking at mylo doesnt help town wincon.

I cant see scum!you with anyone but Brass. Thus, continued lurking is striking me as potentially advancing scum!you's wincon since the current likely lynches are (Me Flicker).

Play to win please (since I town you). But understand that I do see some potential reason for you not to.

[teacher]

955 goes to Brass too. Two lurky spots that MIGHT be team (though I think its unlikely) continue to lurk, while town negotiates various potential mislynches? Again, I dont find it likely and will be remaining in my (no lynch, Elephant,

Flicker

) compromise position, but just trying to stir some conversation from these spots.

[Meji Fan]

Why back down on Oxy? Please explain that again. Flicker feels much more like scattered town than scum trying to keep their options open. I'm not very find of Elephant, Flicker or myself, I don't feel enamored with Oxy/teacher as a team, I've been suspicious of brass since D1 and feel they could still be it

[teacher]

Why back down on Oxy? Please explain that again.

I probably should have included him, but feel like he has less associatives than elephant and cannot be a consensus lynch unless Brass changes (which I view as less likely than a Flicker change).

I cant see him teamed with anyone but elephant or

very unlikely

Flicker, so lynching them is better than him:

• Me-> Day 3
  
• Brass -> I grok Elephants Nauci-DDS argument.
  
• Flicker -> just inside the realm of remote possibility, but I agree on Elephant's points in 942.
  
• You -> Day 2 would have been a potentially unnecessarily early bus in 445 while I had pushed (in 366) Nauci over Meji.

[Oxy]

reread nauci and meji isos again.

Meji backing off the teacher read undercuts my reason for town reading him in a world where teacher is scum

Nauci I think was simply town

so right now I'm back to 2 in {teacher, meji, flicker}

tbh, my teacher scum read is waning with the sheer effort teacher is exuding, but that might be the opposite of what I should take from this.

teacher, is this effort alignment or personality indicative, and why?

I need to reread all three of their isos together, but I don't have time right this moment.

[teacher]

teacher, is this effort alignment or personality indicative, and why?

I honestly cant answer, since I havent scummed in a long time (10ish years). My guess is both.

Im certainly competitive and want to win. Im also an addictive procrastinator. Bottom line, the effort alone is probably there regardless, so NAI.

But I think the FORM of effort is pretty town indicative -- begging you to identify my partner, and even identifying possible candidates and providing clear reasoning. I think scum!me tries just as hard to avoid the rope, but

attempts to hide their partner better,

since its still a decent chance I get lynched today and I (per the point above) play to win.

FWIW, on the possible Meji partner point - Ive conceded the possibility, but I still think its pretty darn remot. Meji was the counterwagon I STARTED early afternoon and PUSHED in late afternoon D1. Sure, its a possible explanation of my D2, but difficult since (a) explicitly remained open (even preferring them after you destroyed my math case until I saw the associative case), and even then (b) repeatedly stated that Meji was independently scummier than Thor, while passing the ultimate buck to NK. Also, while Meji may have backed off of me, I still read him as saying Im second to Brass, but thats open to debate. To be clear, by the way, I am having increasing psychoses (why Ive brought it up twice) about Meji-Brass - again, just not wanting to lose, and likely just being ridiculous about continued lurking when it is playstyle rather than alignment indicative.

[Oxy]

I'm having trouble giving any weight to associations between you and anyone because of the wifom implied by how much weight you have put on light pushes when examining associations.

So I see what you're saying, I just don't know if I can use it when sorting you.

I'm considering voting flicker with you, just to confirm (fmpov) that at least one of you is scum

(if you are both town, flicker will get a 1-2 hammer from the 2 scums at some point in the next day)

[teacher]

Elephant seemed down on Flicker too IIRC.

FWIW, I share Meji's scattered town read on Flicker. Its part of why Im so hung up on elephant (I town meji and, to a lesser extent, Flicker. Im nullish scum on Brass and you). Im just willing to take what I view as a decent chance my read is wrong, rather than knowing 100% town loses when I die. I

Im leaving my vote, and will probably follow you anywhere but me if I cant get Brass to de-town-lock elephant.

One question (and again, please note Im leaving my vote), we just havent discussed it in a while - sleeping? Sure we have all just about outed every shred of information. But I would still rather that as I have said (sleep, elephant,

Flicker

, Brass), and would feel remiss in not asking. The NK, if any, drastically cuts down the mislynch odds and strengthens the associations.

Finally, on WIFOM, if I'm scum i think my partner (from my play today facing your noose) is Brass, Meji, Flicker. Not sure if that helps you, but its what I thought of after typing the answer to your effort question. I just dont think you can make the Brass or Meji case really stick, so maybe get out of your tunnel?

[Flicker]

Okay, then. I guess I'll just work through my reads now.

All the possible teams:

Spoiler: All teams list

brassherald/Irrelephant
brassherald/Meji Fan
brassherald/Oxy
brassherald/teacher

Irrelephant/Meji Fan
Irrelephant/Oxy
Irrelephant/teacher

Meji Fan/Oxy
Meji Fan/teacher

Oxy/teacher

If my town reads on Irrelephant and teacher are right, the possible teams left are:

Spoiler: Teams minus Irrelephant and teacher

brassherald/Meji Fan
brassherald/Oxy

Meji Fan/Oxy

Since brass/Oxy is unlikely,* then Meji is the partner of either brass or Oxy.

Brass/Meji is slightly less likely because of Meji's tunnel on Nauci (although NK15 felt like it was a scummy tunnel - wish I'd asked him to explain that further).

As for Meji/Oxy, Oxy bussing Meji while setting up my mislynch for the next day is possible, and there's really nothing from Meji's side until today about either DDS or Oxy, and the suspicious at Oxy are fairly weak.

(*Not that I think it's impossible - something like the Nauci/DDS argument could have happened if one or both of them play as scum primarily by lying to themselves about being town and ignoring day chat. Then, they realize they rub each other the wrong way and DDS replaces out, not as a gambit but because they just genuinely annoy each other. I doubt it, though.)

However

, if Meji is town (which seems more likely now they're trying to stop my lynch, because they have nothing to gain by defending me today unless they're really gonna bus their partner), then I think I have to reevaluate my reads on teacher and Irrelephant. The possible teams then would be:

Spoiler: Teams minus Meji Fan

brassherald/Irrelephant

brassherald/Oxy

brassherald/teacher

Irrelephant/Oxy
Irrelephant/teacher

Oxy/teacher

I find brass/Irrelephant fairly plausible. Note that Nauci's initial read on Irrelephant wasn't much of one (post #97, basically "null because he's too nice"), and skimming their ISO they're neither buddied nor distancing (although brass' thoughts at post #789 maybe changes that a little*), which seems like a middle-ground relationship that scum wants(?).

(*Sidenote - I don't feel great about this post. Aside from his reads on Oxy and I guess teacher, I'm actually not sure what his other reads are here? "Playing guarded," "weird voting patterns," and "short ISO with only one vote" aren't exactly scum or town reads.)

Brass/teacher is also possible - brass starts off saying "I won't lynch teacher," then course corrects when he realizes his "mistake" (of not knowing the setup? of scum-slipping?). But, do Nauci and teacher immediately distance by voting each other as soon as teacher shows up? I don't know; seems like a risky and attention-grabbing gambit. But, if teacher's scum, he's up for gambits. Still, I find this less likely than brass/Irrelephant.

I find neither of Irrelephant's other teams plausible based on today - too coordinated with Oxy, too distancing with teacher.

Oxy/teacher is similar today to Irrelephant/teacher (worse, because of Oxy's vote), ergo also implausible.

The only teams left I haven't looked at are Irrelephant/Meji and Meji/teacher. Both these teams have a similar dynamic - Irrelephant/teacher works hard to establish town cred, including by pressuring/bussing Meji where necessary, and Meji sort of softly questions them without any real pressure. On the other hand, a world where both Meji and Irrelephant/teacher are scum is troubling to me and my ability to make reads.

In conclusion, my list of plausible teams today, in a world where my individual reads are meaningless, roughly in order of more to less likely:

brass/Irrelephant
Meji/Oxy
Meji/Irrelephant, Meji/teacher
brass/Meji
brass/teacher

But, again, what does scum!Meji have to gain from defending me? Which would leave the plausible teams at:

brass/Irrelephant
brass/teacher

So, based on this, brass is the lynch today, and whichever of Irrelephant and teacher didn't vote for brass is the lynch tomorrow.

(Have you ever simplified a really long math problem, and the answer is 1, and you go "wait, that can't be right?" I feel like that here. )

[Flicker]

Also, to lighten the mood a little...

Spoiler: Fun? In MY MafiaScum?!

Are you a

TOWNIE

who likes to lose

? Or are you just tired of this game and want to end it?

Then

VOTE FLICKER

!

A vote for Flicker is a vote for

the Mafia

!

"Down with the Mafia! Protect Flicker!"

™

(This post approved by the Council to Stop Flicker's Lynch.)

[Oxy]

A vote for Flicker is a vote for the Mafia!

hmmm

[Oxy]

that was funny ngl ;P

[Oxy]

Then VOTE FLICKER!

I'm probably paranoid, but can you please do an unvote?
I think bolded text Vote <person> counts as an actual vote? lolol

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote

Until Flicker complies.

[teacher]

Im down for Brass - he's fourth on my compromise pool because I agree he could be with Elephant (and also Meji, and you). Im not leading that way, though, because this could look like coordinated play for Oxy's benefit. Im just saying that if he will go, we have a consensus lynch (that includes two of his apparent stronger scumreads).

@Oxy - my vote will go back on Flicker when she unvotes until you dig out of your WIFOM rabbit hole (and tunnel? )

[Flicker]

UNVOTE:

I don't think it counted since it's in a spoiler, but just in case.

[teacher]

VOTE: Flicker.

[Oxy]

I don't think it counted since it's in a spoiler, but just in case.

oh, derp, you are right.

[teacher]

Wait a minute, it was flicker who townlocked Elephant, not Brass. He may be back on the table. @Flicker - am I reading you right, or is it hard Brass? (again, if we can get 4, I'll go, but Im not working with you, or coming off of you, until a 4th commits).

[teacher]

Also, @Flicker, where does this rank compared to sleep? That is, can you lay this out for me in a staggered order so I know what likely plays are out there.