Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Flicker]

It's fine, I just unvoted the "no lynch" that isn't happening anyway. S'all good.

PEdit: Brass is pretty much my only comfortable vote today, yes (unless someone can point out mistakes I made in my analysis).

PEdit2: I'd still rather sleep over brass, but I feel like "no lynch" is a lost cause.

[Oxy]

Flicker, you were consistently town reading nauci/brass until around post 770.

Have you gone back and looked at Nauci's play to see if it looks scummy in retrospect?

[Oxy]

I might be convinced to sleep, but I am (perhaps foolishly) worried that it will be me that eats dirt at this point.

[teacher]

FYI, I have to sign off for a few but I still remain - regardless of Flicker's responses - at (sleep, elephant,

Flicker

. Brass). I am too close to the game, and it could be her coming in hard on Brass after I had just added Brass to my compromise pool is looking to bait me. I need to separate and think.

@Brass please delurk and provide the Oxy meta?

[Irrelephant11]

Noooooooo my post got deleted right when I was almost done

[teacher]

Wow, somehow I missed all those responses. Oh well. Going to weigh everything still and not post for a bit.

[teacher]

Control-Z brother?

[Irrelephant11]

No, the page got refreshed, the text is gone.

[Irrelephant11]

The content of the post was a town-case on teacher, my attempt to make sense of NK15 in a town-teacher world, and a bunch of responses to things from the past few pages. This is really disheartening, I was working on the post on-and-off all day today in between other things. I guess I'll probably try to make it again tomorrow, or at least a version of it.

[Oxy]

I keep meaning to start drafting posts in google drive for exactly that reason

but then I never do

sorry, elephant

[teacher]

@elephant-I do look forward to it. But if it didnt really change things for you, I dont mind the TL/DR rather than you feeling like you have to make up work just for the sake.... I hate that feeling.

[Flicker]

Have you gone back and looked at Nauci's play to see if it looks scummy in retrospect?

Only in conjunction with whichever partner I was looking at for my analysis. But, thinking back, it's maybe not as towny as I thought? I don't know that there's any value at looking back at it though scum-colored lenses, though.

Honestly, you all plausibly look town to me at this point, which is obviously impossible. Aside from Irrelephant, who I've only recently suspected through PoE team-hunting, I've also suspected all of you to one degree or another. So, a part of me is up for any lynch that ends the day (and possibly the game), even if it's mine (which I

know

will end the game). But the other part of me doesn't want to basically throw in the towel, even though I'm tired and confused kind of expecting a town loss. Whoever wins, I don't know if it's "good game, mafia" or "bad game town." (Don't know why I felt the need to wax on about the game like this, but whatever...)

And with that, I'm probably off until Friday. Various sundry things in my life have conspired to make me very busy tonight and tomorrow. I should be back before my prod Friday, though, and I could pop in for a quick "no lynch" vote if the wind shifts that way.

PEdit: Bummer, Irrelephant. I second teacher, and add that I think a TL;DR now is better than nothing. Then, we at least have something to go off of or question, while you try to piecemeal the rest of your lost replies together.

[teacher]

Ive decided I need to do a sleep, and then decide which one of Brass-Flicker I want better on my own. I was more up on Flicker before this move, and it seems to make sense, but I want to analyze rather than usual seat of pants. I'll give myself a deadline of 1pm Eastern to get on and give my reasoned analysis. Good night you fools.

[Oxy]

We've been here a week, and I'm getting restless.

town:
Oxy
Elephant
Brass

Unconfirmed:
teacher
flicker
meji

I'm going to vote flicker at the end of the post, putting both teacher and I on flicker.

If both teacher AND flicker are town, scum will coordinate and hammer for the win.

If either of them are not town, scum won't be able to hammer.

Within a day-ish, the lack of a hammer will confirm the following:

from mypov: It will confirm a minimum of one scum in {teacher, flicker}
from flicker's pov: It will confirm one scum in {teacher, oxy}
from teacher's pov: 1 scum in {flicker, oxy}
from {meji, brassherald, elephant} pov: 1 scum in {teacher, flicker, oxy}

If you are town, please don't add your vote to the wagon.

VOTE: Flicker

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote.

Oxy can I get 14 hours to sleep before you start your game? If it puts you back on me, Ill leave the vote up. But these were some big changes today and Id like the chance to actually reflect on them,

[Oxy]

that's reasonable, go for it

[Meji Fan]

I don't imagine a world easily where both Oxy and teacher are town so gambit away

[Oxy]

teacher, brass or oxy

Except I haven't really decided who I like best as I'm not sure whether I can buy teacher now

Could you please give a little more on your thought process surrounding teacher?

You said in another post that you could believe that NK jailed him to protect him, and later in this post you still have him in your lynch pool.

I'm curious what other aspects of his play you find scummy/townie, or anything else to help me understand your thought process on his slot.

[Meji Fan]

I couldn't believe NK would jail teacher thinking he was scum, NK loved teacher

However after Flicker posted on thinking teacher was town, I looked again to see if anyway I could buy NK jailing him to protect him, NK loved teacher, and some aspects of NK play seemed curious, so I can't discount NK jailing him


I found teachers case on lynching Thor not terribly compelling as I tried to show NK

His initial vote on Nauci was very interesting to

[Oxy]

and some aspects of NK play seemed curious

which parts, exactly?

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.05

Flicker (1) Oxy,
Not Voting (5) Irrelephant11, brassherald, Meji Fan, Flicker, Teacher

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[brassherald]

Oh, hey, since this game ended, I can finally talk about my real reason for TRing Oxy. I couldn't let onto this before because you can't talk about ongoing games, but I look at this game and the Open 721 and see distinct similarities. I couldn't reveal anywhere that Oxy was town during that game, but this is his town game. He's consistent with his town play here.

I aso find it very convenient that Flicker has as her lynchpool the three people who have mostly said she is likely scum. It's a cop out defense. "If someone is scum reading me, they are probably scum" and she went through and found reasons afterwards. It's suspicious to me.

[Irrelephant11]

So I was too upset (and busy) to post again yesterday.

Here's the tl;dr

teacher as town makes some level of sense (more than flicker as town, for example). He's shown the most effort this game by word or psot count, which is hard to do as scum I'd think. This has included trying to gamesolve D2 (at least nominally) and pressuring many slots. If he's scum, he has done a good job of playing tryhardiness like a new town player might. I had pointed out particular posts, but this is a tl;dr, so.

Even if teacher is town, NK15's words still come across to me as "teacher is town, do what his night results suggest". I

can

maybe see him changing his mind overnight and not thinking much about how that would contradict his last words.

Now that the 24 hours are over, I still see teacher and flicker as the two scummiest players.

I'll respond to more recent stuff in a bit

[teacher]

OK. So I am rested and have reflected. I have my reads and plan for the day pretty well handled. But before I get there:

@Oxy: In what world is your gambit better than sleeping? In other words, why did you choose this?

[Irrelephant11]

@brass who do you want to lynch today? You've said Oxy is locktown from your POV, and you don't want a lynch, but who are you thinking of voting for?