Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

@Elephant - Finally (because Im forcing myself to close this window and actually work), re:my flicker unvote -- really LOOK at the timing.

I voted there TUESDAY explicitly inviting Oxy to join me. I stayed there for 30 hours. Luckily, I requested my break BEFORE Oxy posted his gambit thought, and WITHOUT unvoting. Only THIRD, and immediately after, does Oxy post his gambit thought with a vote. FOURTH I unvoted, WITH a specific offer to put mine back up if Oxy came off.

If Oxy had joined me at any time before 3pm Wednesday, I wouldnt have come off Flicker. Doing so would have killed me, given my Tuesday comments. Its also important that I didnt try to unvote when I requested a break. The unvote only happens because new information came from Flicker and from Oxy that I wanted to analyze without giving scum a possible hammer. In short - it wasnt fear of lynching Flicker, though I now town her - it was the need for analysis of new information.

[teacher]

And so long as we're just throwing shade, I can't imagine why scum!teacher wouldn't want to do it ;P

I really do enjoy you and look forward to purgatory.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.06

Teacher (1) Oxy,
brassherald (1) Teacher
Not Voting (4) Irrelephant11, Meji Fan, Flicker

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[Irrelephant11]

@teacher, what is brass's scum-motivation for pretending you're locktown PR at the start of the day?

sidenote: brass was only ever on a team with flicker/teacher (brass/meji is too much of a findmuck), both of whom seem actually willing to lynch him. I don't feel like the towncred earned by either of them, were they on a team with brass, would be worth giving up the opportunity to win with two scum. brasss is very likely town at this point.

I find teacher's most recent posts unconvincing and his motivations scummy. I'll scumcase him again, if that would be helpful to anyone. At this point I've read his ISO so much I could write sermons about it, and it reads scummier every time.

I think meji is getting semi-pocketed & teacher/flicker continues to be the team. If this is the case, Flicker and teacher are taking advantage of the fact that meji has expressed interest in voting brassherald to set up a mislynch.
Either that or flicker is getting hard pocketed (Flicker: you've asked "what does scum meji have to gain from townreading me?" and if you're town the answer is pocketing) and teacher/meji is the more subtle team.
Flicker/Meji comesin at third most likely, and in this case teacher just killed the chance to lynch scum anyway. I'd like to vote teacher.

Anyone want to try to stop me? L-2 is obviously dangerous, but if four townies are ever going to vote together L-2 has to happen at some point. I'll give you till sometime mid/late tomorrow (this seems to be enough time for flicker to respond?).

[teacher]

Elephant: Since your own reads have been off, maybe try what I did and reread Thor. I decided to listen to wisdom,

Meji: If you and Flicker are town, as I expect you are, I wont blame you for hammering me since sleeping apparently just gets us to the same loss tomorrow unless Elephant moves.

[Oxy]

I really do enjoy you and look forward to purgatory.

Spoiler:

also same

[teacher]

@Oxy-@Elephant: One (less likely both) of you is town barking up the wrong tree. What if anything can I do to get you off?

[Oxy]

show me why it's got to be meji + flicker

or, less likely, why it's elephant - and don't include this game day because i can't scum read elephant for scum reading you

[teacher]

I cant do elephant ISO. He makes sense as a partner for Brass, but if scum he deserves all the kudos he will get. The scummiest thing Ive got is his switch on Flicker.

I cant do Meji-Flicker. Really, at all.

I can do Meji-Brass. The low activity tunnel had no chance of ever really happening. Pysch shows that once a wagon (on Nauci) comes together then falls apart, it is very unlikely to pick back up again. Even from RVS.

I personally like Brass and either one of you two, and as you know, you. But as Ive said all day, the one thing I know is Im town. Im also pretty damn sure Flicker is after rereading her iso, and that Brass is Maf.

But Im largely done with trying to argue it.

[Oxy]

But Im largely done with trying to argue it.

Yeah, I'm ready for some votes

[Flicker]

Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim.

@Flicker, this is all you have said about teacher's night result. Most players then spent like two pages discussing it and its ramifications. Do you have any response to that discussion?

Actually, I did respond, here (emphasis added):

I know I'm due for a prod so I'll just post this really quickly: if everyone could stop tunneling teacher I'd really appreciate it. Maybe I'm just the VI that's gonna cause town to lose, but I still believe he's the tracker.

His claim, especially from the N2 actions, are just too weird of a lie IMO.

A fake tracker claim, with a fake jailkept claim, seems like a ridiculous, unnecessary lie for scum to make when the much easier lie is a nullread. I'm also not convinced NK15 would

never

have jailkept the player he believed was the tracker. I don't think it's the optimal play, but I can appreciate changing your mind, as well as the argument teacher makes here (and elsewhere):

Spoiler: NK15 jailkeeping teacher scenario

I think NK thought I was town, for the reasons Oxy excerpted. Certainly, his D2 and Twilight D2 comments seemed to say he would not JK me.

It still makes sense for NK to JK me, even with his townread, because he knew that read could be wrong. Given the surface interpretation of NK's D2 comments, I truly believe scum!me would have to be assigned the night actions. NK thus JKs me to cover the risk his read was wrong, but also to conf!town me if he does die. This is possibly the best move NK can make, even though it deprives the town of my tracking, because its 50/50 rather than the >33% chance of JK scum (magnified by the risk I cant actually track), and it provides a conf!town if the kill nonetheless goes through.

(Flicker: you've asked "what does scum meji have to gain from townreading me?" and if you're town the answer is pocketing)

To what end? To re-direct me to a different mislynch? To actually end the day without a lynch, despite posts opposed to the idea? The only plausible goal I see for scum!Meji to townread me is to make the mislynch machinations from their partner less suspicious, because five people scum-reading a slot at this point means either someone is (soft)bussing their partner (unlikely) or all the townies are wrong (very possible).

Although, thinking more, I suppose the other, more obvious option is to prevent me from voting them...

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass. But, before that, I think I need to go through my scum team analysis and put Meji back in the mix. I also think I'll go through the scenario of brass being town, just to be thorough.

[Oxy]

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass.

I would completely support this to prove that there is at least one in {brass, teacher, flicker}

[Irrelephant11]

Oh, I missed that on re-read. Well, okay. I disagree, still, I think.

Actually let me analyze some potential scum-teacher night result lies.

Spoiler: Long anaylsis

In a world where teacher/flicker is the team:
1: null- or red-checking someone other than flicker removes the option to point back to breadcrumb. Still, red-checking meji would possibly point back to flicker as the most likely partner/other scummy player. Also sets up a teacher/meji 1v1. Flicker makes the most sense as the teammate for either side of the 1v1 and so also has slight potential of votes/doesn't get listened to. Lowers likelihood of scum win overall, therefore bad choice.
2: Red-checking brass might have worked, but given the replacement maybe teacher wasn't sure he wanted to 1v1 a freshly energetic player. Has the similar problem re:Flicker, though nearly guaranteed to get meji's vote. Still, 1v1 lowers likelihood of scum win, therefore bad choice
3: I am of the opinion Oxy and I have both played townie enough games to be able to beat teacher 1v1 in most cases. Neither of us were ever getting a fake red check. Neither would Flicker in this team setup, obvs.
4: Null-checking me or Oxy is also weird, because "why didn't you aim for someone scummy"
5: Null-checking Meji or brassherald would probably not factor into D3 overall. We'd all move on and hunt for scum, with teacher on the table but not more than anyone else. First legitimate option so far, except for not being able to point to breadcrumb. imo scum teacher is excited to point to breadcrumb.
6: Null-checking Flicker brings attention to the team (if teacher ever flips red, flicker gets a lot more attention, if not outright suspicion) with mild benefit of pointing to breadcrumb. Not much worse than option 5, but probably not the choice scum would make here, because associations. This also makes it harder to mislynch meji by saying flicker/meji is the team, because "why wouldn't Flicker make the kill in that scenario"
7: No Result is an easy way to say "I tried to check someone scummy (townread me), but I can't tell you anything past that (no associations for you)." Unconfirmed PR also makes sense as the JK pick. That is, until one carefully reads NK15's final words, which I believe teacher did not do until he made the night result claim. Also, added bonus of hopefully being "just too weird of a lie".

In a teacher/meji world:
1, 2 and 3: false red-checking makes the game harder for scum, so I'm not re-analyzing this.
4: Stays the same
5: pretty much all still true, despite meji's different theoretical alignment.
6: Null-checking Flicker would make some sense. Flicker would probably like teacher for it (she's sometimes townread players who town her and scumread players who scum her). It also wouldn't reduce the opportunity to mislynch her much, because on most flicker teams she doesn't make the kill. The only team she does make the kill is when she's with meji, which also helps clear meji. Actually yeah if flicker is town this would have worked great.
7: No result is not as good as null-checking flicker, and that is probably very evident. Only reason to choose this is wifom.

Welp, this lowers the likelihood of a teacher/meji team, but in a teacher/flicker world, scum teacher who hadn't read NK15 carefully enough and was pressured to make a pick really would be very likley to choose no result.

Fun how more analysis and information keeps pointing me in the same direction

[Oxy]

I don't want to knock your analysis - i think you make a number of excellent observations.

I don't think you should consider teacher not being able to reference his crumb when evaluating a possible scenario.

Scum!teacher should have had a good understanding of what this day would look like when making his crumb

And could be expected to make a similar crumb for whomever he chose to claim as his target.

[Irrelephant11]

oh good point, I was thinking from the perspective of "it's n2, what am I gonna say come d3" not "it's d2, what am I gonna say tomorrow"

hmmm

[Irrelephant11]

wait I remember why I had that perspective - teacher was fishing for info at the start of D3 before giving his night result, and if he's scum that would suggest he hadn't yet decided what the result would be

[teacher]

Im V/LA for weekend and mothers day video making. Ill be checking, but limited mobile posting.

I actually think the crumb may be an important point. I made very clear that I was crumbing in twilight, answering Thor's instruction to "functionally communicate" by saying "what makes you think we aren't."

Tracker!me had to crumb, to try to communicate with NK to not cross night actions. As a result, scum!me would have to crumb too, otherwise I couldnt blend in. So the crumbing itself isnt very AI.

But who the crumbing is on is pretty AI, I think. Does Scum!me crumb Scum!flicker, drawing attention to the team? As Elephant says, I think not. I think Scum!me crumbs Nauci/Brass - a scum read I had D2 that would would have been equally credible.

In other words, I think the placement of the crumb further undercuts the Flicker-Teacher team theory (plus the D1 push and D3 pressure). And as Elephant says, the results undercut Meji-Teacher.

Maybe, just maybe, Im town like I have been screaming?

teacher was fishing for info at the start of D3 before giving his night result, and if he's scum that would suggest he hadn't yet decided what the result would be

Or maybe its just what I said - I wanted uncolored info from scum who would be worried I had a redcheck.

[teacher]

And could be expected to make a similar crumb for whomever he chose to claim as his target

Seriously man? I had to be able to at least CLAIM an attempt to communicate with NK (if not actually try to communicate with him). Thus, all of the hypothetical other crumbs would have to be relatively large, like the Flicker one was. I took pains to write that post somewhat weird, so that it would seem off and make NK dig at it further, and also have a post soon after it further hint at crumbs/attempts to communicate (the response to Thor).

I truly challenge you. Search through my afternoon posts and try to find another similar crumb. I didnt leave one.

[Irrelephant11]

Except that maybe you do crumb your scum partner to keep NK15 off her, actually?
I'll repeat that I don't necessarily think you do the nightkill as scum, since you called attention to yourself with a claim.

hmmmmmmmm

[Oxy]

But who the crumbing is on is pretty AI, I think. Does Scum!me crumb Scum!flicker, drawing attention to the team?

yes, you could have done this. In no way is this out of your scum range. why would it be? you gave a no result.

[Oxy]

And could be expected to make a similar crumb for whomever he chose to claim as his target

Seriously man? I had to be able to at least CLAIM an attempt to communicate with NK (if not actually try to communicate with him). Thus, all of the hypothetical other crumbs would have to be relatively large, like the Flicker one was. I took pains to write that post somewhat weird, so that it would seem off and make NK dig at it further, and also have a post soon after it further hint at crumbs/attempts to communicate (the response to Thor).

I truly challenge you. Search through my afternoon posts and try to find another similar crumb. I didnt leave one.

I'm not saying that scum!you would have left multiple crumbs to keep his options open, though you might. I don't know.

I'm saying that scum!you probably wouldn't deviate the following day from whatever crumb he made.

Thus, had you chosen to claim a result on meji, you would have probably left a meji crumb.

I'm not arguing that it makes you scum. It was a very narrow point aimed at a very narrow subset of elephant's analysis, and I don't think that arguing it made you any more or less scummy in elephant's eyes. Why even argue the point?

[teacher]

I'll repeat that I don't necessarily think you do the nightkill as scum, since you called attention to yourself with a claim.

FOR THE LOVE......please get out of your tunnel. Dont you realize that your theory that I dont carry out the nightkill (because I have attention on my spot and so could be JK?) is completely contradictory to your hard assumption that NK never Jailkeeps me based on his words???? If you think his words are so strong, I have to be the killer. If you think they arent so strong, then my JK claim is more plausible. I really dont get how you can have both positions, which is why I see NK's actions as a logical, 50/50 bet while announcing he was conf!towning me if he died.

Also, just because I missed this earlier:

@teacher, what is brass's scum-motivation for pretending you're locktown PR at the start of the day?

sidenote: brass was only ever on a team with flicker/teacher (brass/meji is too much of a findmuck)

to be able to spread scumreads on all slots in a mislynch hunt without actually doing so. He can change the read on me once its called out, such that he has now questioned everybody but Oxy -- something notably you all have been scumming me for.

Aside on Brass-Meji, I really am not closed to them. I still think its one of you, but dont see this as impossible. Meji never got traction with his tunnel, and had he been lynched D2, Nauci/Brass would have claimed town-clear from it.

[teacher]

Why even argue the point?

Becuase Im town and want to win?

[teacher]

(sleep,

Brass

, TRULY ANYONE BUT ME) - in case I hadnt made that clear enough. I am pretty sure Flicker and Meji are town, but I dont know that, and Id rather take the chances if sleep isnt an option. Now Im hitting the road. Be well y'all.

[Irrelephant11]

Well so I think NK15's words are clear that he thought you were town.

I also think you didn't consider how clear he was end of day. This is why you might be paranoid enough to not do the nightkill and miss how bad a fake result No Result is.

Except that if you were paranoid you probably would reread, so maybe the second sentence above is moot.

Except that maybe the reason you are arguing for there being more than one level to his words is because that's how you read it overnight when analyzing his most likely course of action.

I need to think.