In post 2965, beeboy wrote:I literally just think Mom claimed her scum role. What aspects of her play are particularly townie?
This is a little difficult to answer without it being just ~stuff~, but really, ~stuff~ just rings town.
But anyway.
This seemed like a good place to once more run through what I am getting at, with all the relevant information.
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FACT: Momrangal has claimed Mason Cop, getting results in the form of "Mason" or "Not Mason".
This is indisputable.
It is generally agreed that this is not a fakeclaim. Those who think Momrangal think it's her real role, just claimed as scum; those who think her town think it's her real role. Does everyone agree so far? Okay then! From this, we can go further with an additional inference.
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Inferred Fact: If there is a Mason Cop in the game, then it is likely there is
at least
one set of actual masons. Possibly two.
So you follow with this, right? You might have thoughts on it, that it's possible to exist without masons as a red herring role, or that the possibility of two mason sets is slim, but you follow with the statement as worded, yes? Likely (even if not definitively) at least one set of masons (maybe two).
Alright, good with that?
I'd love to spend extra time on why I feel a mason cop increases the odds of four masons in the game (namely because it gives the mason cop more people to get results on), but if I did that I'd be taking away from the point of my argument, so let's keep on going.
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FACT: Nico Robin and mastina are claimed masons together; beeboy and Lovebird are claimed masons together.
This is indisputable.
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Inferred Fact: Given our prior inferred fact of the mason cop, it can then be assumed at least one (possibly both) sets of claims is thus true.
Thus, it can be inferred that AT LEAST one set of beeboy/Lovebird and Nico Robin/mastina are masons, with the possibility both are.
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FACT: Cheetory has declined to answer if masons would be explicitly conftown to one another publicly.
This is indisputable.
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FACT: Nico Robin and mastina are claiming that when Nico Robin asked Cheetory if they were explicitly conftown to one another, Cheetory answered "yes".
This is indisputable.
And here's where the critical step is.
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Inferred Fact: Nico Robin and I are claiming information not available by asking publicly. The only possibility is thus that we obtained this information over a private channel. The possible channels are PM/mafia PT/mason PT.
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Inferred Fact Followthrough: Mafia PTs function identically for all intents and purposes to PMs; an answer available by PM is available in the mafia PT, and vice-versa.
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Inferred Fact2: If beeboy and Lovebird are actually masons, they should get the same answer because Cheetory won't treat two mason pairs differently from one another.
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Inferred Fact2 followthrough: If beeboy and Lovebird cannot produce the same answer, then you have a confirmed liar pair in the set of beeboy/Lovebird and Nico Robin/mastina; if beeboy and Lovebird can produce the same answer, then you have confirmation of the answer's accuracy.
And from here, I shouldn't need to hold your hand as I walk you through it. But I will anyway.
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Inferred Facts Followthroughs' Inferred Fact: By asking Cheetory via PM, "Hypothetically, if I were a mason with a player, would we be conftown to one another?", you can test whether mafia can get access to this information. If Cheetory declines to answer, then mafia cannot access the information; if Cheetory does answer, then mafia can access information.
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Inferred Facts Followthroughs' Inferred Fact Followthrough: If Cheetory confirms that masons are explicitly conftown to one another, then you know AT LEAST one set of beeboy/Lovebird and mastina/Nico Robin is town; you also know that mastina and Nico Robin were being truthful about the information they shared.
And therein lies the critical part.
Because we know there are masons in the game.
And we know that EITHER: masons are conftown to one another (Cheet answers in private) OR: mastina/Nico Robin have an answer unavailable to the public which beeboy/Lovebird EITHER: vouch for, OR: deny.
The possibilities you end up with are based on that.
-Masons are conftown; masons are in the game; you have AT LEAST one set of conftown in beeboy/Lovebird and Nico Robin/mastina.
-Masons aren't publicly known to be conftown; beeboy/Lovebird are liars by claiming to be masons and not having the answer and Nico Robin/mastina are truthfully masons.
-Masons aren't publicly known to be conftown; beeboy/Lovebird don't have a way to confirm this and Nico Robin/mastina are lying about that information for...some reason...because lying about mod communication gives them some sort of...mystical voodoo advantage of some sort. (I really don't get this one so if you believe it, you're gonna have some explainin' to do.)
-Masons aren't publicly known to be conftown; beeboy/Lovebird vouch for Nico Robin/mastina's claim that they are, and thus, this confirms all four as town.
I already know that it isn't #3.
So no matter what. You end up with knowing that there are conftown. Off of the setup information we have available to us today.
Through a combination of roleclaims and Cheetory's stances on answering questions.
We get conftown we otherwise wouldn't get.
Point out where this process is wrong.
Because my logic? It fucking holds. Because it is based off of FACTS. With the LOGICAL INFERENCES GIVEN THOSE FACTS.
Unless you want to argue that my inferences are wrong, then be my guest and fucking DO SO. I'd like to see you try.