Newbie 1867 - Game Over

[Huntress]

Vote Count 1.8

vulcan logician (2) - Ircher, Nachomamma8
Ventriloquist (2) - Etromin, Draynth
Harambey180 (2) - northsidegal, ofrhz
Ircher (1) - vulcan logician
Etromin (1) - Ventriloquist

Not voting (1) - Harambey180


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Wednesday, 16th May, 09.00. BST, (in (expired on 2018-05-16 09:00:00)).

northsidegal replaces Alciel.

[Huntress]

WARNING

Talking about ongoing games is not allowed

(except where expressly permitted by the moderator of that game). A detailed explanation of what you can and can't say about ongoing games can be found here. Once a game has been officially declared over by the mod then it's fine to refer to it.


JUST A REMINDER:

10. ... Also, please ensure that any colours you use show up clearly in both the MafSilver and MafBlack themes.

The colours used in post 199 cannot be easily read with the MafSilver theme.

[Ircher]

1. In 21:

hello

VOTE: Harambey

I would like to note that while this is an RVS vote, this also is an L-1 vote. The people on the RVS Harambey wagon are: Draynth (#6), Vulcan (#9), Ofrhz (#12), and Alciel (21). Honestly, this is probably all irrelevant information, it is just something to note. (It is also a good lesson to at least glance at the thread before placing a vote though that does kinda defeat the purpose of RVS being "random".)

2. In 29:

He didn't state a reason so I voted for him, same reason why you're asking me thid. Didn't state mine since no one really asked him why for his vote.

Looking at this again, this is a bit more than I expected. Now, I think it is still safe to say for the most part that Alciel's vote could still be considered RVS; however, if Alciel had read some of the thread beforehand, they would have probably noticed that their vote would be L-1, or at the very least, they would have noticed that Harambey already had a fairly large wagon. Again though, this is more or less not indicative of alignment.

3. In 30:

I'm not really sure the wagon here is actually putting pressure on, though, because it's clearly a pressure wagon surely that defeats the purpose?

Yeah, but the threat of being lol-lynched is generally enough to get conversation going.

4. In 34:

Vote: Harambey180

I think the fact that he hasn't posted yet is strange. He's been active onsite for a while after the L-1 wagon formed, and I think that it's likelier that he is scum who is avoiding posting for a little while in the hopes that what's mostly just a baseless wagon will die out than town who saw the wagon form and had nothing to say/could find nothing to address.

Okay, one other thing I want to note about this post is that again, it is a L-1 vote. The reasoning isn't necessarily good, but it isn't necessarily bad/unreasonable either. Mainly, it is simply a bit on the thin side.

5. In 35:

Why would I try to 'defend' myself against a wagon this early on? By staying silent I also won't give scum more information / opportunities to throw more shade in me. And the more I talk, the more I'm putting myself in a losing position based on the past. Because of how I verbalize things, I guess.

I mean, it is a reach, but one reason to 'defend' yourself would be because scum can (and occassionally have, esp. newbies trying to play the newbie lynchbait card) lolhammer. That aside, I don't think you really had anything to defend against, so I think staying silent probably is the best move here actually--it makes you not appear super jumpy or paranoid. At the same time, I disagree that staying silent denies scum information that will help them and that won't help town, yet I don't find this line of reasoning unreasonable.

6. In 41:

Alciel's post #29 is really odd and I don't get what point he's trying to bring across.

How exactly is this odd? So far, Alciel's voting reasons seem reasonable even if a bit on the stretch side. (If this is answered later in the thread, you can ignore this question.)

7. In 44:

His vote didn't have a reason compared to others that at least posted something though nothing concrete, it's my first game and I'm still testing the waters, I'm also waiting if someone would question my lack of reasoning since I don't know if not giving reasoning is that common or not.

Despite what I said earlier, with each post Alciel makes, Alciel's original vote becomes worse...

8. In 51:

VOTE: Ircher
You don't buy vulcan having a strong townread on Crepppy for it, I don't buy you not getting that vulcan wasn't serious

This comes across as super accusatory; I'm not sure though how I would interpret it from an alignment perspective.

9. In 53:

I'll

hop on

the Ircher wagon. It's

SUPER awkward

to take me seriously there.

VOTE: Ircher

Sure, I agree it was awkward, but

super awkward

? That aside (which probably isn't relevant), why are you

hopping on

to the Ircher wagon... Versus perhaps leading it, esp. if you find my read on you to be something that comes from scum. What this really sounds like is that you think Draynth's vote gives you "permission" to vote me without appearing suspicious.

I still got my eye on Harambe though. Perhaps he clammed up when the wagon gained momentum.

I can see scum!Harambe being like "Oh shit! They took me to L-1 already!" And not knowing what to say.

But we can

always wagon him later if need be

. For now, let's examine Ircher.

First of all, Harambey is an SE meaning they are experienced. Even if you disagree with their initial defense for not speaking, his later posts

clearly

show that he is a competent player. What I mean by this is that the probability that scum!Harambey reacts in the way they did (and are unsure of what to do) is next to zero. It is perhaps about as unrealistic as my expectations regarding your read on crepppy, so I guess it isn't necesssarily impossible. Also, what is with this "always wagon him later if need be" part? I mean, it is fine if you scumread Harambey; however, this comes across more as to an excuse for you to switch wagons on a whim if there isn't much public support for an Ircher wagon.

10. In 54:

Probably scum will be on the Ircher wagon bcuz going from 0 votes to L-1 during V/LA will probably give an awkward response from Ircher.

Where does the notion that the wagon will instantly jump to L-1 come from?

11. In 56:

Harambe has a point. Wagoning him when he's gone is pointless.

If you agree, why do you not move your vote elsewhere? (Perhaps back on Harambey who you apparently scumread since they were around at the time...)

12. In 63:

No, it wouldn’t be the same. A naked vote indicates some level of comfort with the vote because the person didn’t feel the need to defend it. But tacking on a “hello” indicates that the person didn’t feel comfortable naked voting yet felt like they had to say something, but couldn’t come up with anything less lighthearted than hello. It’s awk

I really disagree when the vote in question has a high likelihood of being an RVS vote. "Hello" reinforces the idea that the vote in question is an RVS vote. Now, a question for you--while your reasons seem

okay

, why is it that you appear to ignore the idea that it could be an RVS vote despite this being mentioned? As in, why are you persisting with this angle with the new given information?

13. In 105:

Are you for real? Seriously, I didn't think that hard about it. It was RVS. As I said before, a wagon formed on page 1 is bound to dissolve. It's not even a good way to put pressure on scum because they know it's RVS.

This doesn't even address the primary focus of Nacho's read; it addresses the side-issue of the Harambey vote. Also, he didn't necessarily say that it began a serious vote, just that it became a serious vote after some time. (See your 53; you strongly suggest that Harambey is a scumread for you.)

14. In 107:

There are two ways to interpret my earlier statements. As you have done, putting all sorts of motives in where there are none -OR- as someone who is pretty much clueless, moving his votes around because he has NO INFORMATION to go on.

I am just going to point out that mafia is hardly a black-and-white game, and that there is almost certainly more ways than the two you suggested to interpret your earlier statements.

15. In 111, Ventriloquist posts what basically amounts to a list of observations followed by a vote on Etronim -

I have no qualms with what is stated in the post itself. What I find somewhat strange is what is not stated: you have made a good list of observations, but you have not attributed much in terms of reads to them.

16. In 115:

Here's somthing I don't get: why make the joke in the first place? It doesn't seem necessary and trying to crack non-obvious jokes on page 1 seems to be a bit of a stupid/risky thing to do.

To be quite honest, I am not sure where you were planning to go with this....

17. In 127:

"A somewhat suspicious leap onto my wagon"
I was the first vote and you literally say the reasoning is valid

It was a gut read; the way it came across seemed a bit suspicious.

It's because it feels like a forced scumread to me.
In my opinion town are generally less likely to misinterpret what vulcan said. This is all purely based on my own experiences though.

I wouldn't call it forced, although I would call it reachy, esp. later on.

I acknowledge that a lot of scum won't be willing to back down like this but it also feels like scum realising the pressure they're drawing as a result of a push (see post below)
Maybe I'm just searching for reasons to scumread ircher here

I think you are at this point.

18. In 130:

Why in the world did that post 3 times

Probably because you hit the submit button thrice... Here's a tip: don't press the submit button multiple times if it is slow to submit; you will simply submit the post multiple times.

19. In 132:

Yeah I think L-1 votes especially can be uncomfortable to drop because of how much scrutiny they can receive, and I think by saying hello, you were trying to mitigate that discomfort. It gutpinged me as scummy tbh. I do concede this is may be more personality indicative than scum indicative though

Okay, but you are still voting Alciel and haven't really elaborated on why that is the case given the above statement.

20. In 133:

townreading this for the defensiveness mixed with disbelief. Also the “didn’t think that hard about it” is kinda towny

This is weak imo.

21. In 134:

I agree with this, I think scum are very careful and will do their best to think hard about every post they make

I don't agree with it, but since both you and ofrhz think the same here, I guess I ought to elaborate, yes? So, the reason why I don't find it towny is because 1) it didn't address the case presented against Vulcan really (their read progression) and 2) scum can, have, and will use AtE arguments, and this is definitely one of them. Even if I were to concede that the post was null (which I'm not necessarily doing by the way), I don't see how pursuing an aggressive tone registers as town-indicative.

22. In 141:

Do you consider the above to still be the case; i.e.: do you still scumread me based on the above or is your vote now for a different reason?

You know, I love how Vulcan pretty much ignores this, though I am almost certain they were still on when I made this post. (7:45 PM for their post versus 7:53 PM for my post.)

23. In 144:

What would you say if someone asked you about the most important part of mafia?

This really wouldn't help get the game going, but I appreciate the effort in keeping the game active.

Still, I will answer this: there is no

most

important part of mafia.
An active game state is important; without it, scum can easily lurk their way to victory and present fence reads that they cannot really be held accountable to.
It is also important to scumhunt; if you are not looking for scum, there is a problem, and you are not advancing town's win condition.
Yet at the same time, one must also townhunt. Having no townreads is about as bad as having no scumreads, esp. in the latter parts of the game: townreads help town PoE who the scum are.
Finally, if you do a little research, you will quickly find that a 7-2 mountainous game is very scumsided. Thus, night play is just as important to winning as day play is.

24. In 148:

Are you still scumreading vulcan for his jump onto your wagon?

More or less at the time. Is there any particular reason you ask?

25. I know it is not a good idea to postulate teams pre-flip; however, I really think that an Ofrhz/Vulcan team is likely. They both seem scummy to me individually, yet at the same time, their interactions with each other come across as natural scum interactions. (They could also be TvT or TvS as well, but perhaps I should say that they make sense from an SvS perspective as well.)

26. In 158:

To keep the rest short, plenty of his posts are very short and Ircher seems to change their mind occasionally.

I don't have any major qualms with the rest of your read on me (in part because I think it is reasonable and partially true); however, this part of your read is playstyle-related and thus null. (If anything, changing my mind occasionally is more likely a towntell than a scumtell for me, but I think we'll just keep this at null.)

27. In 174:

Nonetheless, putting others in the spotlights by blaming them for lurking, while Draynth himself has already lurked more than 1 1/2 days on three occasions so far, is very suspicious to me.

Oh come on, we all apply double standards at times. I think you are reading into hypocrisy a bit too much.

28. In 180:

Saying that I'm lurking in the same way that ventril, alciel or etromin are lurking is completely unfair.

I mean, I'm leaning towards town on you right now, but I think your activity this game could actually be described as active lurking, which is worse than just lurking. I say this because you seem to be in the thread semi-regularly (maybe not regularly, but more than some other lurkers), yet whenever you post, I don't feel like you are bringing too much more to the game and are being a bit on the passive side. (I mainly townread you for gut-related reasons, so it isn't a really strong read at all.)

[Ircher]

@Mod, Eh, maybe I should've spoilered that actually. Can you do that for me?

​

Spoiler: Reads to this post

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Nachomamma8

(+78%) - He makes many good observations when he posts. I also like how he acknowledges alternative views (such as in 98) even if he does not necessarily agree with them. 164 to 167 are really good, analytical posts.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Draynth

(+21%) - I feel 51 across as super accusatory, perhaps a bit too much. 127 comes across much better in my opinion. 145 also comes across as a town!post. Honestly, I'm leaning town here, but there just doesn't seem enough from Draynth to warrant placing them in the neutral read category versus having them as a null read. Also, the possibility that slot is active lurking exists.

Etromin

(+8%) - 70 has a town!vibe to it.

Crepppy

Ventriloquist

(-7%) - 111 is a decent post except for one really glaring issue: little to no reads. It is more a list of observations, which is fine, but I feel that you need to accompany those observations with some kind of reads (eg: town, townlean, null, scumlean, scum).

Alciel

(-8%) - RVS L-1 vote is notable but not alignment-indicative (21). Explanation in 29 fits the "This is an RVS vote" narrative, but it also raises the question why didn't seem to consider the L-1 aspect of their vote. 44 seems consistent with the reasons they give earlier, but I'm starting to get a scum!vibe overall (not a strong one--very weak, but there) from the voting logic being used. It would be nice for Alciel to begin trying a little harder at developing reads (as of 112), but since I later state in the thread that most of my reads were basically null or close to it, I can't exactly harp too much on this.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)

Harambey180

(+55%) - I really like how he responded to his wagon in 35. Some decent reads in 69; however, I agree with Draynth that there really was no need to try to slow down/stop my wagon while I was gone. In general, his posts have been good, and I really like how he is trying to keep the gamestate moving. (Notably, he has done this many times so either he is scum trying to be a town leader (unlikely, but possible), or he is town trying to ensure town's victory.)

Ofrhz

(-32%) - I really don't understand why Ofrhz appears to not really acknowledge the possibility of Alciel's vote being RVS; in particular, they are still voting Alciel even at 63 with seemingly zero thought towards the idea. Now, they acknowledge this idea (or something else that suggests it wasn't scum-indicative) in 132, but they don't move their vote and don't really elaborate too much more on their read there.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Vulcan Logician

(-65%) - His beginning was fine, and I definitely read too much into his joke. That aside though, 53 is scummy in multiple ways, and is enough by itself to warrant a full-fledged scumread. 56 seems pointless, and not just pointless in a null way, but actually a scummy way. Maybe I'm just biased, but I also have some issues with 105 as well: it fails to address Nacho's primary point (Vulcan's read progression on me) and instead focuses on the secondary aspect of the Harambey voting becoming serious. Now, I can't know for sure, but I am fairly convinced that Vulcan ignores immediately answering my question in 141.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

The colours used in post 199 cannot be easily read with the MafSilver theme.

Eh, sorry, I'll try to remember that in the future.

[Huntress]

ofrhz has been prodded.

[Ircher]

V/LA tommorrow

Sorry, I wasn't planning on this; it just came up. I might not be on much Sunday either because I have a test to study for.

[northsidegal]

hey all! kind of busy right now, will catch up later.

[vulcan logician]

Hey guys... I gotta apologize for not posting and getting prodded once again. I bit off a little more than I could chew by playing two games at once. I thought I could do it easy, but, meh... it's a lot of work.

I am about to finish up some ISO reads, so hopefully that will compensate for my lack of posting.

Welcome nsg.

[vulcan logician]

vulcan because his posts still don't appear to me like he's playing that well. I want to help him improve his skills by voting him because that's an experience you'll have to learn at some point. Purely game-wise, his posts don't add that much new and he seems to follow the others around a bit. I don't quite like that.

Fair statement, Harambe, though I think you'll see I do better as the game progresses. Early in the game I do tend to stick to other townies, what I guess is called "sheeping"... I'm new but have been told I'm okay at the game. My losses outnumber my wins at this point, but I won my last two games (not only that, but survived all the way through). Each game I play, I get better.

At this point I recognize that others are better at the game and follow their lead, especially early in the game when gut reads seem more important. (I suck at the gut reads/reading emotions aspect.) Later in the game, when more information is available I do better. I enjoy the evidence/analysis/logic part of the game the most. When the skillful players are all NKed, I have no trouble stepping up and filling their shoes.

[Harambey180]

Ircher's post 202 is pretty much a compilation of '28 things that you guys could have done better'. I like the effort you put into making such a long post consisting of 28 things you think about, but it's not quite my style.

Also, because it's a long post, it is probably a good idea to bold some parts like questions. I read about half of it because I don't want to spend too much time on this game and I have other things to do as well. If you asked me questions, then I missed them and please repeat them for me.

Your readslist is still pretty good though. It's not the type of readslist that I'm used to see but I can see you really thought well about your reads. I'm still not really fond about, how to say this, what you want with your posts. I can't really think of a way to say this that you will understand what I'm trying to say, but whatever.

Finally, when I saw that 'town leader' thing you said about me in your read on me, I remembered an idea I had earlier. I thought it would be a good idea if we had someone as a 'team leader' that coordinates everything that happens. Probably two people, because there's a chance that if we assigned this 'task' to one person, that person could be scum. If you picked two people that seem to absolutely disagree with eachother then the odds of both being scum is about 0 percent, so then you'd have at least one Townie in the team leader group. I don't know what you guys think...??

Should we need one or two people as team leader(s) to coordinate everything that happens in this game?

Things like: making sure that one discussion doesn't go out of hand, let people take turns, make sure that two topics aren't discussed at the same time (because that's less efficient imo). That's what I'm thinking of rn.

[vulcan logician]

@Vulcan

Who do you currently scumread?

Reads incoming. Just finished an ISO of everybody. I lean scum on Ircher and Harambe atm, see below for my reasoning.

[vulcan logician]

Ofrhz: Seems townish. Some of his observations seemed like he was genuinely trying to puzzle out others' motivations.

Etromin: Null- she seems like a newbie trying to get her sea legs.

Ventriloquist: Null so far... not many posts quite yet, but he replaced in so...

Alciel/nsg: nothing to go on.

Draynath: Light on the post count, but I like the quality of his posts... townish side of null.

Ircher: Biggest scum lean (but it's early in the game). His "scumhunting" seems like disguised "shadethrowing." He doesn't seem motivated toward resolving the truth, rather plausibly making positive/negative statements about people. For instance, my joke. Other people have questioned my joke, so this isn't OMGUS. It's the way Ircher went about it. It's as though he saw it so much as an "opportunity" that he didn't even consider stopping to assess it at face value.

Harambe: Lean scum. This is mostly gut. I like that he is contributing and keeping the game alive and for that reason, maybe he's better to examine on day 2. That will give him some time to show his townie colors too (if he has any). I don't like gut reading people, but really what struck me was his silence when the L-1 wagon formed on him. Of course, even scum know that a page 1 wagon is unlikely to remain intact the entire day cycle, and there really was nothing that Harambe could say in his own defense at that point. But he could have made a joke or something, or came out and said "Jeez guys, why are you taking me to L-1 on the first page?" None of this. He clammed up. Only later on did he post a response to it, and his response felt contrived.

Nacho: Seems like a skilled player. I get serious town vibes from his posts. He seems legitimately concerned with unraveling the mystery. If he's scum, he's talented scum.

[Ircher]

Vote Count 1.8

vulcan logician (2) - Ircher, Nachomamma8
Ventriloquist (2) - Etromin, Draynth
Harambey180 (2) - northsidegal, ofrhz
Ircher (1) - vulcan logician
Etromin (1) - Ventriloquist

Not voting (1) - Harambey180


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Wednesday, 16th May, 09.00. BST, (in (expired on 2018-05-16 09:00:00)).

northsidegal replaces Alciel.

[ofrhz]

Sorry all for being mia. Life’s been busier than usual. If my time doesn’t free up, I’ll look to replace out in the next day or two

[ofrhz]

Upon rereading I am learning towards Vulcan and Draynth's logic on this one, seems like mafia would want to miscontrue information and this clearly was dry humour. Maybe an attempt to justify voting for someone else when the reasoning is pretty thin.

Why didn't you vote for Ircher in this post? Because based on what you wrote here, this should have been followed up with a vote on him.

[ofrhz]

Harambe: Lean scum. This is mostly gut. I like that he is contributing and keeping the game alive and for that reason, maybe he's better to examine on day 2. That will give him some time to show his townie colors too (if he has any). I don't like gut reading people, but really what struck me was his silence when the L-1 wagon formed on him. Of course, even scum know that a page 1 wagon is unlikely to remain intact the entire day cycle, and there really was nothing that Harambe could say in his own defense at that point. But he could have made a joke or something, or came out and said "Jeez guys, why are you taking me to L-1 on the first page?" None of this. He clammed up. Only later on did he post a response to it, and his response felt contrived.

This read is very shallow. It doesn't take into account anything Harambey did after the RVS wagon, nor does it explain how Harambey's response was contrived. I feel like Harambey has explained his initial silence during RVS?? And he has contributed a lot more to this game after the first 2 pages, so it's lazy how your read is formed entirely on this one thing.

[ofrhz]

Finally, when I saw that 'town leader' thing you said about me in your read on me, I remembered an idea I had earlier. I thought it would be a good idea if we had someone as a 'team leader' that coordinates everything that happens. Probably two people, because there's a chance that if we assigned this 'task' to one person, that person could be scum. If you picked two people that seem to absolutely disagree with eachother then the odds of both being scum is about 0 percent, so then you'd have at least one Townie in the team leader group. I don't know what you guys think...??

Should we need one or two people as team leader(s) to coordinate everything that happens in this game?

Things like: making sure that one discussion doesn't go out of hand, let people take turns, make sure that two topics aren't discussed at the same time (because that's less efficient imo). That's what I'm thinking of rn.

Hard townreading this
Harambey has already positioned himself to be the "town leader" of this game if he wanted. Experienced scum would be happy to seize this leadership position, so they can guide the conversation to topics that benefit them. Yet Harambey here seems open to yielding that position to other people by asking for posing this question
That said, I don't think we need to formally elect someone

[ofrhz]

I'm about halfway through typing up a readslist with explanations but I'm out of time so have a summary instead

Town

Harambey, Nachomama, Draynth
---
Ventriloquist, Alciel/NSG
---
Vulcan, Ircher, Etromin

Scum

[Huntress]

Etromin has been prodded.

[Draynth]

UNVOTE: Ventriloquist
People don't really seem interested in this and given there's like 3 days left I should be on a wagon more people are ok with I think,

VOTE: Vulcan Logician

That's L-2

If anyone doesn't want vulcan lynched, can you please explain why?

[northsidegal]

okay, i'm reading through this now.

[northsidegal]

page 1 – i think it's pretty obvious that vulcan logician was joking on his crepppy townread, so ircher making a big point out of that is pretty awkward. lightly townreading VL for the joking around, awkwardness seems to be a pretty reliable tell for newbies who roll scum and i don't really see that there.

[northsidegal]

Sorry if you guys find my catchup "spammy" or something, i just like putting my thoughts down as i have them reading through.

Top scumread at the end of page 3 is harambey – he was pretty obviously town in the one game i've played with him before, but i'm not really seeing any of that here. His reaction to the votes on Ircher (that i agree with) seems unnatural, and mentioning everyone when asked for reads (from 69) is something that i've found to be a moderately reliable scumtell, at least when it comes to relative newbies. It basically just falls under the umbrella of "pretending to scumhunt", where scum mention everyone even if they don't have much to say just to appear like they're considering a lot.

(that tell just worked on catching scum!Draynth in a game that finished recently, actually – ofhrz was in that one.)

[Ircher]

I'm about halfway through typing up a readslist with explanations but I'm out of time so have a summary instead

Town

Harambey, Nachomama, Draynth
---
Ventriloquist, Alciel/NSG
---
Vulcan, Ircher, Etromin

Scum

You would join a Vulcan wagon, esp. near deadline, correct?