Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

why is who does the night kill relevant?

It only seems relevant in a world where we know that NK either did, or did not jail teacher.

If he did jail teacher, it proves teacher didn't do the night kill, making this argument relevant.

But we don't know that to be a fact, and it's likely that he didn't, so it's not relevant.

that said, I'm getting really close to just effort reading teacher as town.

Please don't take that as a reason to post more because I have to take everything from here on as wifom

[teacher]

FWIW, and I know you cant trust this, the first time being JK ever occurred to me as an option was at daybreak when I got the PM. I certainly never saw two levels. After the PM I read the words and they made sense.

Without the PM, Scum!me takes credit for the crumb and nullchecks a partner. Because being JK is not possible. If Flicker is my partner, I also use the analysis of NK's words that I posted before clear Nauci as JailKept and drive a mislynch onto Meji, since everyone was so willing to be there before. I dont come out of the gate on Nauci's slot.

[teacher]

@Oxy - Xpost.

[Irrelephant11]

Hnggggg I'm so annoyed at a town-teacher, but I'm starting to see it.

I still don't think brass/oxy is plausible.

I don't see a team Flicker isn't on (except for brass/meji, which still sounds too ridiculous to be true. Sorry if I'm wrong on that)

VOTE: Vote:Flicker

[Irrelephant11]

For the record, I'm still not super townreading teacher, I just think teacher/meji became less likely from my analysis and therefore find flicker on every scumteam I think is likely.

With that, I'm out till weekendpost.

[teacher]

I jnow your weejend lwo post but can you or someone make a Flicker scummier than Brass 1v1 case?

[Oxy]

I don't really want to do a full search through nauci's iso again right this second. Here is one example of a post that I found from her that I think comes far more frequently from town than from scum. Below it is an example of such a post from an earlier game of mine. It also came from town.

Quick comment is that I find it super weird how there has been very little talk about me. Every moment I was too ill to properly post I was sure that I'd come back to a thread full of people FOSing me because I usually FOS lurkers super hard. Maybe I missed it, but I'm pretty shocked to find that (outside of meji's inexplicable super tunneling) only teacher has cased me and irrelephant questioned me. I'm not sure what this means alignment wise yet, though.

I fail to follow - your argument is that you're town who is easy to mislynch so it's strange that scum aren't trying to mislynch you.
That's functionally an argument that you're scum - explain?

No I said exactly what I meant.

It's weird for people to not have pressed me for lurking from a scumhunting perspective. Obviously no one knows for sure if I'm town, so it's weird that more people didn't pressure me about being away. Analyizing whether or not people are FOSing me is important data that can be done w/o saying I'm casing myself, because my alignment and the perception of my alignment are separate.

one thing i will say from doing a thread search is that it's interesting how nobody seems to have mentioned my slot beforehand. i really don't know what it means yet, if anything. if i had to guess i'd say it might cast the SEs/IC in a more suspicious light, but that's just speculation.

Your slot is a newbie-slot that site-flaked before they even confirmed their alignment. Not really sure what you're expecting people to read into that?

i didn't expect people to "read into it", it's just the fact that my slot seemed to have just been ignored, and it was 4 whole days before it was replaced. it's just strange to me – i would have expected at least a few more mentions than i've found. my baseless theory is that the more experienced players who perhaps should have called for it to be replaced or prodded earlier didn't because an empty slot benefits them as scum, but like i said – just speculation.

[Meji Fan]

I'm not happy with a Flicker lynch

[Oxy]

I'm not happy with a Flicker lynch

thanks for sharing.
wish you would give more

[Meji Fan]

I'll maybe try to share more tomorrow, but I admit I'm going all tilt a whirl between you and teacher and it's a jumble

[Irrelephant11]

@teacher a short version:

Flicker avoided the D1 Lynch in a weird way, Flicker makes more sense as a partner for Meji, neither Nauci nor Flicker gave much reasoning for the Thor votes but Nauci was sick and missed the chance to explain while Flicker doesn’t have an explanation, & more

[mhsmith0]

prodding flicker, brassherald.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.07

Teacher (1) Oxy,
brassherald (1) Teacher
Flicker (1) Irrelephant11,
Not Voting (3) Meji Fan, Flicker, brassherald

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 11 AM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 11:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[Flicker]

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass.

I would completely support this to prove that there is at least one in {brass, teacher, flicker}

Yeah, but you'll assume it's either teacher or me.

I'm waiting for the weekend to be over before voting, anyway. Seems like the polite thing to do, given all the V/LAs. Up

[teacher]

Prodge and happy mother’s day if it applies. Going to reread Nauci and Flicker ISOs. My own personal gut is Brass, particularly with Meji if both of you are town, but I take Oxus point on that quote and my own on the beginning of D2 anticlaim campign. Not sure and will respond.

[Meji Fan]

Nauci and Brass are the same person

I think it's either teacher/brass or Oxy/brass as Oxy and teacher seem much to hammer and tongs to be together, and I don't think it's Flicker or Elephant, so, I'm fine with putting brass at L-2 or all tilt to L-0

[Oxy]

hmmm...

everyone in my lynch pool wants to lynch brass.

How about, no.
whichever one of you is town needs to get woke

[Oxy]

time is getting short on this list. We need to lynch someone.

Brass and elephant - I need you guys in here over the next couple days

[Meji Fan]

You wanted brass at L-2, so here goes

VOTE: brassherald

Not coming off until brass is dead or I am, take your pick

[Oxy]

good. Now we can put the Elephant + Oxy theory to bed.

[teacher]

I’m off elephant.

My problem is Flicker. I can’t see her with Meji with the day 2 vote to L-1. I don’t think with your suspicions from D1 she was in a strong enough position to bus that early, without a NK. She wouldn’t have gained much town cred for a follower vote. I don’t think she could be with either oxy or elephant either. Since I know I’m town, her only partner could be brass.

I think you all are voting her from lingering suspicion of me. But I have the same lingering suspicion of you (Oxy). I tried to come up with a gambit proposal where we could clear out lingering suspicions of each other, but I haven’t found it yet.

I’d much rather brass as it is to me the only lock scum in the board. I’m unsure whether I’m closed off to others - I think I might be because the worst that could come is sleep. But I’m open to being convinced Oxy is town or I’m underestimating Flicjers potential to bus d2

[Oxy]

I think you all are voting her from lingering suspicion of me.

No, sir. Flicker has consistently been a scum read of mine since the start of this game? I should have pushed her lynch harder day 1, but James made it really difficult to help defend him.

[Oxy]

My problem is Flicker. I can’t see her with Meji with the day 2 vote to L-1. I don’t think with your suspicions from D1 she was in a strong enough position to bus that early, without a NK.

She wouldn’t have gained much town cred for a follower vote.

Are you sure? Because you're giving her a lot of cred. And you were giving strong credit to associations by the time of that vote, were you not?

[teacher]

Pretty sure. You and elephant would have gained more cred. And I can’t see her style making it 6:1, knowing there is a tracker (since scum know column b) when she is definitely more suspect than (Oxy elephant Thor) at that point (I hadn’t voiced Thor at daybreak) and so 50/50 with Nauci to be tracked N2 or N3. I don’t see her bussing at that point. Again I’m open just why I don’t find it likely.

[teacher]

@Mod

: Brass is overdue a prod.