Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

prodding flicker, brassherald.

[teacher]

what I deserve for catching up tired and mobile. Thanks mod +Oxy.

[Irrelephant11]

(Also, FTR, I thought I was gonna be the first vote on Meji, not the third. I think I started drafting this post after post #452, and y'all haven't let up since.)

@teacher I forgot about this until now, but Flicker expected to start the meji wagon. I'd say that would have been a better form of bussing/towncred, but it diddn't work, so she settled for third vote. Also yes I do still have suspicion toward you, and if you were scum Flicker would most likely be your partner. But I think the same is true for both meji and brass. Therefore, my vote.

Also you know it's not me/Oxy at this point.
Oxy/brass just

doesn't make sense

. Re-read this:

Is...Swearing new for you or something?

I really don't like to pry and I'm saying this in general concern from one fellow human being to another...Maybe you should replace out if your health is in poor condition and focus on yourself rather than an online forum game?

DDS suggests Nauci replace out. Sure,t he suggestion could be a gambit (who would tell their partner to replace out?), or it could be sincere and NAI.

Nauci - I can't get a really good read off of her. Most of her posts I find semi or incoherent and I can't really see what she's seeing. I understand now that she is ill and uses this site as an emotional crutch, but I also don't need a reminder every post that she's ill. Not trying to be insulting or start a pity party, and I probably will get blasted for this, but I can't stand seeing it every post about her personal life with the constant need to swear. Swearing excessively just gives me the vibe that you don't know what you're talking about, or half heartedly trying with no thought/reason.
My 2nd unappealing poster.

But then he insults her. There's no world where two players who know they're the same alignment openly insult each other to the point that

fuck you DDS don't police my language or tell me what to do with my time because of my health. Call it annoying if you want but fuck off with the "you should focus on your health" or "emotional crutch" patronizing language

My posts have been off the cuff and not up to my usual writing standards but my points have NOT been incoherent. if you can't comprehend a post's meaning because I said fuck, that's your problem

the other player gets very angry, start swearing, and gets the player who suggested replacing out to replace out. This can't be gambit, it'd be breaking the rules. It's crazy to me to think it's sincere between two scum, because they have incentive to like each other personally (not to mention the psychological we're-a-team aspect) and they it escalates needlessly quickly.

I don't think you can honestly tell me those two players were a scumteam. I think it's much more likely they're both town, or not aligned.

At that point, the only PoE reason to vote brass is if you think he's more likely to be my partner or meji's than flicker is. You just said you're "off" me, which I think means you townread me? From there, I sincerely think Flicker/meji is more likely than brass/meji. We can talk next about brassherald/nauci towntells and the likelihood of those two teams.

[Oxy]

okay so elephant + oxy is off the table

[teacher]

Yup.

[Irrelephant11]

As is oxy/teacher and me/teacher, right? Not that anyone thought differently, but it's worth saying if it's true.

[Oxy]

Teams that we know aren't a thing from this voting pattern (by this evening, let's say):
Oxy + Elephant
Oxy + Flicker
Elephant + Flicker

p.edit it's teacher that is voting brass with meji, not flicker. so it's the above teams that can be excluded without a hammer

[Irrelephant11]

oh my bad, right. Okay well that's helpful.

[Oxy]

So now the question for me is,

Do scum!team {Teacher, Meji} prove that there is at least one scum in {teacher, Meji, Brass} when I'm saying never lynch brass, and you're saying that you don't think brass is scum?

-> If they can't convince us to vote brass, they can expect me to argue to lynch within {teacher, Meji}, which would ensure that scum is lynched.

This seems... rather unlikely.

[Irrelephant11]

I mean it could be another way of trying to get a no lynch compromise. But yeah, I've for the most part already given up teacher/meji as a team.

[Oxy]

From my PoV, if {teacher, Meji} is no longer a possible team, that confirms scum!Flicker

and possible teams are:
{Flicker, teacher}
{Flicker, Meji}

[Oxy]

I mean it could be another way of trying to get a no lynch compromise.

You mean scum!team {teacher, meji} do this as a way of trying to deadlock us into not lynching? How would that work?

[Irrelephant11]

Right, same. With an outside possibility of brass/flicker that doesn't change where I place my vote.

pedit: if Flicker follows teacher/meji onto brass (the direction she's currently leaning, I think?) then there's not a majority vote by the end of the day, which I think becomes a no lynch?

[Oxy]

so in their minds things would go,

-teacher and meji vote brass
-you, brass and I vote in {meji, teacher}
-flicker chooses to no lynch rather than vote in {meji, teacher}

I guess that's possible. Is flicker strongly town reading both meji and teacher? I'll go check.

[Oxy]

(Flicker: you've asked "what does scum meji have to gain from townreading me?" and if you're town the answer is pocketing)

To what end? To re-direct me to a different mislynch? To actually end the day without a lynch, despite posts opposed to the idea? The only plausible goal I see for scum!Meji to townread me is to make the mislynch machinations from their partner less suspicious, because five people scum-reading a slot at this point means either someone is (soft)bussing their partner (unlikely) or all the townies are wrong (very possible).

Although, thinking more, I suppose the other, more obvious option is to prevent me from voting them...

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass. But, before that, I think I need to go through my scum team analysis and put Meji back in the mix. I also think I'll go through the scenario of brass being town, just to be thorough.

Okay, so flicker is strongly town reading teacher, and is strongly town reading (but preparing to reevaluate) meji.

Damn, I guess they could be trying to force a no lynch.

[Oxy]

@teacher From your PoV, possible teams are exactly,
{Brass, Flicker}
{Brass, Oxy}

Is that a fair reading? (I just skimmed your iso, and want to make sure I have it right)

[Oxy]

@teacher also, could you point me to your post explaining why brass is lock scum?

I can't seem to find it in your iso

[Meji Fan]

If we no lynch today, and I'm still alive tomorrow, I'm quick voting brass, we've gone around and around the mulberry bush long enough

[Flicker]

Meji stole my vote spot and now I don't know what to do. On the one hand, I doubt both scum would start a wagon in this situation, rather than waiting for two townies to jump on a wagon and then quick L-1 and hammering. On the other hand, if I'm wrong about teacher he's all about gambits, or Meji/teacher could be bussing their partner knowing they won't get lynched today. Or, Irrelephant's letting their partner gambit/take votes while they sit back and pretend!town chat with Oxy. Hmm...

@Oxy: I think teacher explains his lock scum brass theory in the post he voted for him in (post #1006).

[Irrelephant11]

Flicker, in 963 you start the post by assuming teacher and I are town. However, you then decide that since Meji is defending you, Meji is town and teacher and I are back on the table. This leads you to narrow it down to me/brass and teacher/brass. In 1035, though, you admit there is scum motivation for Meji to defend you. How does that affect the likelihood of teams?

Also, in 963, you say your list of plausible teams is "in a world where my individual reads are meaningless". What happens when you include individual reads?

[Oxy]

@Oxy: I think teacher explains his lock scum brass theory in the post he voted for him in (post #1006).

Thanks, Flicker!

[Irrelephant11]

Also I'll note that a teacher/meji team is just as capable of quickhammering any player that gets to L-2, regardless of where their votes currently sit.

Still, I continue to find them being a team unlikely, especially as flicker keeps pinging my scumdar.

[Oxy]

alright, I don't buy the whole double vote for a no lynch play. It seems awfully contrived.

I'm pretty confident it's just teacher + flicker.

I guess we will find out.

VOTE: flicker

[Oxy]

I didn't see the p.edit but you and I are in the same spot, elephant.

Meji + teacher is possible, but flicker + teacher is the better bet.

[Flicker]

Flicker, in 963 you start the post by assuming teacher and I are town. However, you then decide that since Meji is defending you, Meji is town and teacher and I are back on the table. This leads you to narrow it down to me/brass and teacher/brass. In 1035, though, you admit there is scum motivation for Meji to defend you. How does that affect the likelihood of teams?

Also, in 963, you say your list of plausible teams is "in a world where my individual reads are meaningless". What happens when you include individual reads?

If you and Oxy are town, my lynch and game over are imminent, but I guess I'll answer this as best I can anyway.

If Meji is possible scum the teams are:

brass/Irrelephant
Meji/Oxy
Meji/Irrelephant, Meji/teacher
brass/Meji
brass/teacher

(Although I go back and forth on whether Meji/Oxy is more likely than Meji/you or teacher. I guess I put Meji/Oxy slightly above because of my previous town reads?)

If I throw my reads back in - though at this point I'm confused/uncertain about everyone - and go back to you and teacher being town, then the teams are:

Meji/Oxy
brass/Meji