Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[SirCakez]

Agreed. I think pine and wisdom are scum. I'm willing to sacrifice myself for us to win.

Why Wis? This intrigues me.

Also group numbers best play analysis is fine but I'm not gonna focus on that.

[riku]

So I see people are saying scumvibe riku. Scumvibe riku. I naturally give them off.

[riku]

Oh, and Cakez for scum, probably.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think anything DV's done is outside the scope of what i know of him as scum (though it's been a while)

he's the kind of player i would generally read more on tone than other things and i think his generally happy-sounding entrance is a good sign but nothing all that strong

his big post on NSG didn't sit well with me though (#218). apart from having a radically different interpretation of NSG's posts (actually, i thought NSG's response about reading kokichi was reasonable (particularly the 'in 2 pages' part), especially since i do that sometimes too), the thing i actually dislike about #218 is the way it's structured - this isn't so easy to explain but i think it looks too much like an artificial story he's weaving. for example, the phrases "easy to say the words, but a lot harder to back up" and "doesn't stack up" et al really bother me and the way he's written it looks too much like someone who's put together a carefully constructed case than someone talking about how they genuinely feel about certain posts (it feels a lot like he's written a speech for a court case or a formal debate or something)

i dunno. it feels robotic to me

his kok read came across a bit more natural-sounding though

[zMuffinMan]

though i suppose if i squint hard enough i could see his points about NSG making sense from his pov - i just think the way he wrote about it was bad

i actually liked #35 a fair bit (in the context of votes happening at the time and the way i opened the game, it felt pretty natural). and i have no real issue with the way NSG's sorting her reads either

[Eddie Cane]

I was told dvs strength as xcum is sounding town tonally? bins said that iirc

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think so (unless you mean generally sounding pro-town? in which case, that's a different type of tone from what i'm looking for)

i think DV has a lot in common with mastin in terms of how they approach scum vs how they approach town

[zMuffinMan]

i described the difference as 'whimsy' when i talked about it re:mastin - it's a difference in how comfortable they feel when they play either alignment

it's why, say, i think staring down DV in face-to-face and seeing what he does is a good way to read him over listening to him talk

and it's why i think the way he entered the game is at least a good sign

[dramonic]

okay, i understand its hard being shit at something you've done for almost a decade and its hard to accept that, so i'll break it down even more.

If scum does the most basic strategy of even spreads

we have a 5 / 4 / 4 day 1, each with 1 scum. we are assuming optimal lynching for this scenario. we lynch a 4.

that leaves the number at 7:2 going into night. we enter the day with 3 / 3 / 3, with 2 of the 3 containing scum. IF we mislynch and hit 3 town, its 4:2 going into night and then 3:2 going into day, so lylo. 1 mislynch.

if we lynch correctly, its 5:1, and day starts with 2 / 2 / 2 and 1 of those groups contains a scum. if we mislynch, 2 out of 3 of the slots filling that bill, then we are 3:1 and a night kill or not leaves it at mylo / lylo tomorrow. 1 mislynch.

yes, mislynches are less likely by a bit because of the fact there's less mislynchable slots, but there's also far less opportunities to lynch properly and scum control who you lynch. also, people will wifom and self vote a ton so unlike normal slots will be advocating for their own lynch some of the time as we've seen lots of here.

then there's the other dynamic:

scum goes for wifom

lets say they stick with a 4/5/4 split. the 5 has no scum, and we lynch it. then its 5:3, nk 4:3, lylo. 1 mislynch.
4 has no scum, and we lynch it. then its 6:3. nk 5:3. pretty much lylo.
or scum could do 3:7:3, and if the scum are not in the 7 and we lynch it we just lose, but if scum wifom'd and put all of them and we don't lynch it (the likelier outcome) then free 3 townies dead. or, they put 2 scum in it, we lynch it, and we are now at 3:1 lylo after the nk.

and then we get into the fact its still mountainous and towns on this site do awfully in mountainous, worse than rand a lot of the time.


in conclusion: yes granddad, computers

are

in fact useful. technology

isn't

evil. also, this is pretty much confirmed to not be mountainous because its not in the open queue so there's elements that aren't open. fuck off.

You appear to be playing a RNG, so I'll leave you to that.
Meantime, let's play mafia?
Maybe?

The extras who die in each group are a lot of information. People do bad in mountainous because of heavy information shortage. This setup vomits information every phase.
I didn't know this was such a hard concept to grasp.

[northsidegal]

oh boy

[SirCakez]

Oh, and Cakez for scum, probably.

lol

[riku]

Oh, and Cakez for scum, probably.

lol

This is as scummy as it is towny.

[riku]

BuJaber - Neutral
DeasVail - Neutral
dramonic - Town
Eddie Cane - Neutral/Scumlean
havingfitz - Who knows
Kokichi Oma - Neutral/Scumlean
northsidegal - Neutral
Pine - Scum lean
REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE -
riku - Town
SirCakez - Neutral
Wisdom - Town
zMuffinMan - Town

Let's see how wrong I am.

[dramonic]

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE -

?

[Eddie Cane]

correct

[riku]

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE -

?

I have no eyes for realmen.
I missed it.

[BuJaber]

People talking about how scumsided this is or whatever.. you are assuming our ability to find scum remains the same throughout when it should get better as every lynch is more educated than the lynch before it.

Not that it matter because scumsided or not we all signed up for this game and have to play it. You can complain about balance later. Tell me where the 3 scum are. That's all that matters.

Riku - I never said it wasn't reachy. It was an early game read. It is inherently less evidence based than late game reads. But if I turn out to be right please give me the credit I deserve for that scum sniping.

Let's talk about dramon individually - the people who townread him.. what is townie about their posts? I've read their ISO multiple times and don't see anything that could give you that impression. I can accept a null read but please link one post that is townie. Because I read indifference at best and intentional fluff at worst.

[riku]

And if your wrong, Bu? Are you willing to take the blame? Or are you only willing to take credit?

[BuJaber]

Kidding me? Of course I will in this game.
. Even if I'm wrong I'm still likely to hit scum anyway.

Besides I'm not basing my lynch decision on the dramon/koki association. That was just one of 2 scumteams I proposed for IF the split is 1/1/1. Though I suppose this particular pair could be in 0/1/2 split but I'm really doubting scum had the cajones to be put 2 scum in G3.

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

i think the scum are cakez/dramonic/deasvail

hence,

VOTE: group 3

[Kokichi Oma]

Why do you scumread Dramonic?

[riku]

Why do you scumread Dramonic?

Are you still scumreading Wisdom. Why?

[Wisdom]

i think the scum are cakez/dramonic/deasvail

hence,

VOTE: group 3

Why wouldn't a scumteam with zero g2 players push g2
None of these three even tried

[Wisdom]

Like i can see some of these three being scum but they have at least Pine as their buddy

[dramonic]

I caught two scum already, now I'm bored