Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Oxy, no, fmpov its (in order)

Brass-Flicker
Brass-Meji
Brass-Oxy

I definitely dont see Oxy-Flicker or Oxy-Meji. I can see Flicker-Meji but find that substantially less likely than Brass-Meji - on associations alone.

I want brass bad. I am worried Flicker is a mislynch. But I am not sure I want to force a sleep only to relive this all tomorrow.

(Im substitute teaching today, so will read the serious/longer posts this evening).

[teacher]

Since I cant get online until much later, I will note:

1. Brass is due for a replacement in 2 hours. Interested to see what happens there.

2. I am explicitly not closed to Flicker. I agree Nauci had some towny moments. But those could have been ploys for towncred, rather than actual towns. I just feel more comfortable with Flicker's playstyle and my read on her. But my reads have been hilariously wrong this game, so Im very open to being convinced. Espcially interested in hearing from Elephant, whose reaction to Flicker's D1 I shared, so if he has soiled on her from some play-specific action, Im all ears.

[Oxy]

Looks like we're going to get some extra time today, anyway, teacher. Brass looks like he's lurking out.

Which would be a town tell in my mind - scum!brass would is one mislynch away from a win with 2 members of town reading him as town (by both your reasoning, teacher, and my own).

[Irrelephant11]

I mean I think I made it pretty clear that things have soiled for me rgarding Flicker (also sidenote: interesting that by the end of the day if we havn't lost we'll have narrowed down both scum to 1-in-3 sets)

Flicker played pretty townie for most of D1, but things really took a turn when she panicked and unvoted JB. She explained D2 why she didn't vote someone else, but all she ever said about the actual unvote was that JB struck her as genuine and towny. It was a vague way to get towncred imo. Follow this up with D2, where she kept saying she was overwhelmed/confused (397, 410, 414), and then had 469, which at the time I was too distracted to really dislike, but I really dislike it. It doesn't make sense from a town perspective, because why assume scum missed the deadline? For that matter, why is it more likely Thor was scum than the nightkill target (at this point you hadn't said your tracker result, teacher). On the other hand, from a scum perspective, I can think of a few reasons for this post including
-obscuring that Thor was the nightkill target
-knowing scum actually did miss the deadline
-adding confusion
-lynching Thor

In 574 (you have said tracker results at this point), Flicker changes the list to put "Thor was scum's night kill target" at number 1 most likely. That's ISO 36 for her. Then, from ISO 37-40, Flicker spontaneously joins the Thor wagon and hammers without any explanation.

To clarify, she says she thinks Thor was town and then states intent to hammer

without any explanation

.

D3, she has kept everyone on the board at various points. Yes, she felt townie at many points, but her actual

actions

haven't matched her feel.

[teacher]

Mod: May we have a 3rd SE to replace Brass and an extension of the deadline?

@Oxy: NAI to me, but I get where you are coming from.

[teacher]

Elephant - at the risk of putting you back on me, I will point out that scum!flickers defense of me plays pretty against her wincon if I’m town. I really am down to a brass lynch today.

[teacher]

By the way I think we can now be confident that there is at least one scum in (brass meji me).

[Irrelephant11]

???

What is this argument? Flicker might defend you so you townread her and never vote her. Flicker might townread you to further the likelihood of your mislynch (which I thought you’d said before?). Flicker might townread you to cement our 3v3 game state and prevent brass’s lynch. You and Flicker have both said “scum would never townread me what do they gain” which makes no sense? As soon as two votes from town are on town scum is gonna hammer regardless of their “reads”.

[Oxy]

As soon as two votes from town are on town scum is gonna hammer regardless of their “reads”.

truuuuue

[mhsmith0]

Replacing brassherald countdown will be set to 72 hours after replace.

[mhsmith0]

Quick replaces brassherald effective immediately.

[Oxy]

Oh sweet - hey quick

[Oxy]

I hope you'll read the whole game - it's not too long, but it's dense.

Feel free to skip 100% of James' posts. I promise you won't miss anything useful, and you'll safe yourself a lot of hassle.

(no offense, james.)

[teacher]

???

What is this argument? Flicker might defend you so you townread her and never vote her. Flicker might townread you to further the likelihood of your mislynch (which I thought you’d said before?). Flicker might townread you to cement our 3v3 game state and prevent brass’s lynch. You and Flicker have both said “scum would never townread me what do they gain” which makes no sense? As soon as two votes from town are on town scum is gonna hammer regardless of their “reads”.

point taken.
B

[Irrelephant11]

@MOD:

So we have until Thursday at 10:50 PM EST?

Welcome Quick, let's see if you re-read as fast as your name suggests!

@teacher, at this point I can't see you being scum while Flicker is town. Indeed, if there's definitely a scum among me/oxy/flicker (which will be pretty much confirmed when Quick posts), I'm never unvoting Flicker. While I could see you being scum with Flicker, I could also see you being town while Flicker is scum. Flicker is so scummy to me. I also honestly think going to sleep would be bad for town at this point. Is there any chance of you voting Flicker today?

[Oxy]

Agreed. It's possible that teacher, meji just haven't synced up yet to hammer, but it's unlikely. team is exactly flicker + teacher.

[Oxy]

or flicker + meji. fuck I hate this triangle.

[teacher]

I might vote flicker. I’ve been checked out since Saturday for mother’s day and teaching. You (elephant) have written some good posts I want to bite into.

[teacher]

I will check back in with a lengthy analysis post later tonight. These are just some catchup questions I have during a free period. 26 third graders on a sunny day in May are EXHAUSTING.
.

@MOD:

So we have until Thursday at 10:50 PM EST?
Indeed, if there's definitely a scum among me/oxy/flicker (which will be pretty much confirmed when Quick posts)

Im just missing the certainty here, among this trio. Care to explain?

Brass looks like he's lurking out. . . . Which would be a town tell in my mind - scum!brass would is one mislynch away from a win with 2 members of town reading him as town (by both your reasoning, teacher, and my own).

I want to explore this further, because the major thing holding me back from Flicker is fear of a brass-meji team. Oxy, why would this be a towntell from a slot saying he's sick of mafia, and who has shown only fits and spurts of activity (and getting townread for it)? It was in part Elephant's shift to aggressiveness that made me suspect him. If brass came on all bells and whistles last week/weekend after taking Sat-Tuesday off, it would have been a red flag for me. Lurking was thus NAI.

Oxy/brass just doesn't make sense.

As per above, this is still my biggest hangup. I will reread your post here tonight after I get out of school. I read your first DDS quote as sincere and NAI, not a gambit. I see the second DDS quote as potential distancing, and potentially trying to get *liked* by those with more reserved sensibilities who also found Nauci's cursing off-putting (from Playstyle, I sense such genteel-ness from a few slots this game, so could see the play). In short, it doesnt rule a team out. Nor does Nauci's response -- I see what you are saying, and I understand it, but it just isnt as strong for me. I think this could really just be a strong personality incompatibility regardless of eithers alignment. But as explained above and below, my greater fear is Brass-Meji.

I sincerely think Flicker/meji is more likely than brass/meji

This I need to explore more. I dont see the Meji tunnel as cutting strongly against team as I once did. Nauci never gained traction. But even if she had, and flipped scum, Meji could claim town cred for staying off town wagons and nailing scum. Likewise, I never see Nauci or Brass moving strong on Meji. I think this is more likely than Flicker-Meji because of D2. See also my Post 1073. If you disagree, tell me what undercuts Brass-Meji for you, please?

[Meji Fan]

Quick or Bust

[Irrelephant11]

re: first question, Oxy and I are voting Flicker. If the other three players post without hammering, then one of us is scum, same as you/meji/quick

At this point, if that's true, quick/meji can't be the team.

[mhsmith0]

Votecount 3.08

Quick (2) Teacher, Meji Fan L-2
Flicker (2) Irrelephant11, Oxy L-2
Not Voting (2) Flicker, Quick

Day three deadline is Thursday May 17, 8 PM PST. (expired on 2018-05-17 20:00:00)

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch!

[/size]

[teacher]

Thanks; hadnt noticed Oxy's vote switch.

OK, the current vote status will get me off Meji-Quick pretty fast. I think I know what Im likely to do tonight.

[Oxy]

I want to explore this further, because the major thing holding me back from Flicker is fear of a brass-meji team. Oxy, why would this be a towntell from a slot saying he's sick of mafia, and who has shown only fits and spurts of activity (and getting townread for it)? It was in part Elephant's shift to aggressiveness that made me suspect him. If brass came on all bells and whistles last week/weekend after taking Sat-Tuesday off, it would have been a red flag for me. Lurking was thus NAI.

Mate, your post where you voted Brass noted that he had adopted his predecessor's pattern of lurking as a reason to scum read him. You don't get to have that one both ways, so pick a side (we're at war).

I believe him when he said he was sick of mafia, but I also believe him when he said he felt that this game was holding him back from a break.

That implies a feeling of responsibility to finish the game. Obviously, his need for the break overwhelmed his sense of responsibility to the game.

I think that your average person would feel MORE responsibility if they replaced into a scum slot in this position because they wouldn't want to screw over that one individual who has gotten very close to a scum victory by lurking out and looking scummy.

A town player, otoh, might feel that responsibility to the game in general, but not to an individual because they don't know who is town, making that connection less real.

I'm not explaining it well, but it makes sense in my head.

p.edit I probably wouldn't discount meji + quick, if I were you with your reads, until quick posts

[Irrelephant11]

I think I know what Im likely to do tonight.

The

suspense