Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

(btw, that last part is a real assumption i'm working on at the moment)

[Wisdom]

Sure, mine can too, but its not as direct as self-targetting ones

[dramonic]

If we shouldn't make decisions based on the likelihood of things being true, in other words if all scenarios are equally likely, why do people not use randomness more?
More specifically to partition mafia setup is there an actual difference between 4 town 0 scum dead and 4 town 1 scum dead if the first scenario gives us confirmed scum? Wouldn't they be equal in terms of town to scum ratio but scenario 1 would give towm something to act upon given that they know the alignment of one member of the day 2 groups?

I know this was aimed at Muffin but I can answer to.
You should not act on randomness if you can avoid it, obviously. Reads are important and all, but mod info is canon. Furthermore, specifically to this setup 4 dead townie for 0 scum is really bad because it means we have to lynch scum every day thereafter and scum gets a lot of power from that. Depending on which rendition of 4 dead town you take the result varies. If for example we lynch group 3 and we all flip town, you go into tomorrow knowing there is scum among Wisdom, Kokichi and Pine (from your PoV). Scum can choose to split them all equally, making this a roulette to find out who was scum/lying. Sure you can rely on the rest of the group, but it's still a crapshoot. If the 4 dead townie are group 2 (let's say 5 for the sake of argument in case RMOJ flips town too), we'll know Riku was scum but we'll have a pretty tough time lynching him anyways because Scum could just play the gambit game and put him in a larger group (like a 3-2-2 split). Is there scum in all three groups and lynching Riku in group 1 gonna make us lose? We have an outted scum sure, but lynching him can make us lose. Not only that, but NOT hitting scum kills us too because it's lylo.
Now, if you choose instead to lynch the 4 town 1 scum route, you go into day 2 with no information on living players, but a dead scum. at this juncture there is no endgaming setup for the scum besides baiting us to lynch a larger townbloc (like 3-2-2 with the 3 all being town). This gives us 2 100% safe groups to lynch (with potential scum in them too!). NOW you play on reads, discuss, be merry, have a drink and mislynch people in the worst case scenario. Scum can of course pile into group 1 knowing that it's a dangerous group to lynch because it's the ONE group that can kill us, but we don't lose if we don't call them on it, so it's nbd.

The funny part is that when we net 2-3 scum as a result of my plan dram muffin and co will just call me "lucky" and "you just flipped a coin for your reads" and stuff
Ive seen it a million times

I wouldn't say you flipped a coin for your read. What I'm saying is that you're being antitown and putting your reads above mod info. It might give good results (doubt it, but), but that doesn't make it a good play.

Who cares about the eyes of others
You reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you put yourself, who you know is town, in a lynchgroup

You also reduce the possibilities of scum getting lynched when you fuck up a cop guilty. Just sayin

btw, wisdom, do you currently think dram is scum or why did you switch your choice to the REAL MAN?

No, I think hes town
I just think realman is townier
Bonus that dram is toxic and im good with him dying

Hey fun question.
What do you do if both Cakez and Muffin swap into group 1?

Also, come on people. A role that can only move itself has ZERO Town utility and TONS of scum utility. Cakez is scumzor.

Every swapping role has towns of scum utility, self-moving isn't a special case of that. It also has town utility vs the "let's put a townpile together" scum strat.

[zMuffinMan]

you're using an assumption about the setup to push a mechanical idea (that cakez or i must be scum) and you're trying to pass it off as "reads-based"

there is nothing reads-based about this assumption and there's no actual reason to assume that cakez and i must be a T-S pair, but you're pushing the idea like one of us flipping town would incriminate the other

[dramonic]

yo Wisdom, stop trying to shade muffin and paint his actions as scum.
See how stupid it sounds?

[zMuffinMan]

that's his strategy though

seems to be working; people think he's town

[Wisdom]

Hey fun question.
What do you do if both Cakez and Muffin swap into group 1?

that would be bad because we'd miss out on killing pine and riku

[Wisdom]

yo Wisdom, stop trying to shade muffin and paint his actions as scum.
See how stupid it sounds?

So i should just let him manipulate town into thinking im scum then?

[Wisdom]

Like im scumreading him and i see scum motivation in what hes doing
Should i not point it out?

[SirCakez]

I am not
But now that cakez claimed this you figure that his flip will incriminate you further
So youre pushing g2 even more

This sounds like you think I'm town now??

[dramonic]

Hey fun question.
What do you do if both Cakez and Muffin swap into group 1?

that would be bad because we'd miss out on killing pine and riku

That doesn't answer the question.

Like im scumreading him and i see scum motivation in what hes doing
Should i not point it out?

And this doesn't work the other way because...?

[Wisdom]

you're using an assumption about the setup to push a mechanical idea (that cakez or i must be scum) and you're trying to pass it off as "reads-based"

there is nothing reads-based about this assumption and there's no actual reason to assume that cakez and i must be a T-S pair, but you're pushing the idea like one of us flipping town would incriminate the other

Again.
Im scumreading both you and cakez.
You both claimed self-targetting group motivating roles.
I think scum should have one of those.
Cakez feels townier than you.
Thus my current thoughts re you being scum and cakez being town.
All of this is transparent in ny posts.

[zMuffinMan]

I am not
But now that cakez claimed this you figure that his flip will incriminate you further
So youre pushing g2 even more

This sounds like you think I'm town now??

exactly

i'm going to reiterate;

anyone reading wisdom as town, why?

[Wisdom]

I am not
But now that cakez claimed this you figure that his flip will incriminate you further
So youre pushing g2 even more

This sounds like you think I'm town now??

I do, I've said so

[Wisdom]

And this doesn't work the other way because...?

It does
Do I think thats the case? No

[Wisdom]

That doesn't answer the question.

What is the question? Tell me what the three groups are and if amy actions are available

[SirCakez]

I am not
But now that cakez claimed this you figure that his flip will incriminate you further
So youre pushing g2 even more

This sounds like you think I'm town now??

I do, I've said so

I see
What if Muffin and I both flip town?

[Wisdom]

Then eddie probably flips scum
But i find that unlikely, scum probably have one of the direct self-targetting roles

[dramonic]

Group 1: Cakez, Muffin, 3 of {Fitz, DV, Eddie, NSG}
Group 2: Wisdom, Koki, Buj, Pine, RMOJ
Group 3: Dram, Riku, one of {Fitz, DV, Eddie, NSG}

Let's pick DV cuz you don't appear to have a read on him.

[Wisdom]

Also i consider myself pretty transparent and obvtown in this game so i have a very hard time seeing what muffin is doing as town

[SirCakez]

There's also the possibility of other unrevealed roles

[dramonic]

Also i consider myself pretty transparent and obvtown in this game so i have a very hard time seeing what muffin is doing as town

Cut back on the powder.

[Wisdom]

Group 1: Cakez, Muffin, 3 of {Fitz, DV, Eddie, NSG}
Group 2: Wisdom, Koki, Buj, Pine, RMOJ
Group 3: Dram, Riku, one of {Fitz, DV, Eddie, NSG}

Let's pick DV cuz you don't appear to have a read on him.

If you put Fitz or Eddie in G3, then G3
Otherwise G1

[dramonic]

So lynching a group of 5 with your reads is okay
But lynching a group of 5 with confscum is not.

Got it.

[Wisdom]

But again, this would be a waste
Ideally I want to lynch as many I can from {Pine, Riku, muffin, Cakez, Eddie, Fitz} and save as many as I can from the rest