Mini 2006: Scummer in this game UPick GAME OVER

[mastina]

Mastina I will be home in 30-45 to chat and try to sort you. Will you be online?

Probably not, no, but I have a very low tolerance for this shit especially when it has been explained multiple times and shown multiple times.

Every time a flaw in your process is shown, you've been bringing up a different reason to continue and not reevaluate.
Masons can be guaranteed to be the same alignment with said alignment not being town? NOPE THE WIKI SHOWED PROOF OTHERWISE.
Masons can be mafia? NOPE NOT IN A NON-BASTARD GAME.
Masons aren't conftown to one another? NOPE NOT BY OUR EXPLICIT FUCKING WORD FROM THE MOD AMONG OTHER SOURCES.
Four masons can't be in the game? I LAID OUT LOGIC FOR EXACTLY WHY THIS PROCESS WAS POSSIBLE.
Four masons can't be townreading the other pair? I LAID OUT PRECISELY MY REASONS FOR TOWNREADING THEM OFF OF PRINCIPLES THAT ARE WIDELY KNOWN ESPECIALLY BY YOU. (Namely, Play > Role; townplay > counterclaiming my role, as it fucking should be.)
Oh, one mason pair retracted the claim but the other mason pair is maintaining the claim they must be fakeclaiming? MASON COP FLIPS.
Mason Cop is a red herring role? IGNORES EVIDENCE FOR WHY THIS ISN'T LIKELY.
Mason Cop died overnight to prevent gambit from being exposed? MASONS BEING CONFIRMED WOULD BE EVEN MORE DISASTROUS FOR SCUM; THIS THUS WOULD EITHER PROVE NOTHING OR IF ANYTHING GIVE EVIDENCE THE CLAIM IS REAL. (Especially given:

Momrangal was suspected. If Momrangal said we weren't masons, we could mislynch her. This gets us to D3 before scum can die.

)
Masons claim the kill on the dead scum overnight is theirs, they must be trying to bait the real vig? NO VIG COUNTERCLAIMS.
Dead scum was a lightning rod? NOT RELEVANT BECAUSE IT DOESN'T CHANGE ANYTHING.
Scum might have shot one of their own? IGNORES BOTH THE MOMRANGAL KILL AND MY NO BUSSING POLICY.
Claims have been changing, must be scum? IGNORES HOW EACH CLAIM HAS BEEN GIVING STEADILY MORE INFORMATION AND HOW EVERY TIME UNTIL THE FULLCLAIM WE STATED WE HAD MORE INFORMATION TO CLAIM.
Role is a counter to yours? I FULLCLAIM AND DEMONSTRATE WHY THIS IS NOT THE CASE.

And this isn't even a fucking complete list. You get the point.

[mastina]

have you read any of my thoughts?

Yes but they haven't stood out to me to the point where I really remember any of them.

[OnTheMark]

Just got home. I see you said we aren’t talking.

And okay. I guess I won’t ask anything or try to sort you then.

::(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(:(

That really hurts. Like badly. Like I blocked off all of tonight to reread sort and interact with you to figure shit out. You saying no sucks.

Because I can’t talk with Nico so I like don’t know how to fix things

Pedit will read that wall of text inside

[mastina]

You saying no sucks.

Said probably not, not definitely not. But point remains. If you want the information?

It's already there.

Just do an iso of me and most of it has been said.

Multiple times.

[mastina]

I think it's RC playing on Alisae's account these days, Alisae has become way ruder that what she used to be.

For the record--Kokichi Oma's iso does little except say that he was scum, but tentatively, I'd loosely say that his iso does spew Sudowodo (now Pine) as being town.

[OnTheMark]

I think it's RC playing on Alisae's account these days, Alisae has become way ruder that what she used to be.

Alisae would never allow this IMHO.

[OnTheMark]

Can everyone please make a post like that? I think there is likely a lie detector if roles have to do with flavor. It would give us a free cop that they can use down the road.

@Mastina what do you make of this?

[mastina]

Can someone give me the balance reasons for 4 masons and a balance cop all being town? I just don't think that's possible unless scum have a godfather strongarm role as 1 person or something crazy like that

This I still maintain is more likely to mean Nahdia and Lovebird are town, albeit not as strongly.

[mastina]

Can everyone please make a post like that? I think there is likely a lie detector if roles have to do with flavor. It would give us a free cop that they can use down the road.

@Mastina what do you make of this?

It was one of the posts which revealed to me Kokichi was scum.

It says nothing more.

[OnTheMark]

Can someone give me the balance reasons for 4 masons and a balance cop all being town? I just don't think that's possible unless scum have a godfather strongarm role as 1 person or something crazy like that

This I still maintain is more likely to mean Nahdia and Lovebird are town, albeit not as strongly.

I could go with one of Nahdia or Lovebird being town if you two are but I don’t think both.

[OnTheMark]

Assuming the scum team is 3 players I'm pretty comfortable calling it Mastina/Wisdom/LLD. Gg.

You think Mastina and Wisdom are scum together after that post? What?? hahahaha.

This post does kinda spew you town and LLD town. Is it possible CheekyTeeky and Kokichi are scum together and that is an exaggerated reaction to a buddy?

[mastina]

Nahdia
MathDino
OnTheMark
Lovebird
Lady Lambdadelta
Pine
Not_Mafia
MOMOMEN

So assume OnTheMark, Pine, Nahdia, and Lovebird are spewed town. (In about that order of strength.)

You're left with:
MathDino
Lady Lambdadelta
Not_Mafia
MOMOMEN

...Two scum in this pool.

If I were asked to rate the confidence in scum being in there. It'd be about 57.5%.
Or rather, both scum.
One scum, good 90%, but we're talking, both remaining scum. That's 57.5%.

Still. I could use some crowdsource feedback on my process here.
NicoRobin and I are conftown by virtue of being masons and also shooting scum.

OnTheMark is more likely town through a combination of their role being Asceticizer when scum had an Ascetic and via play being more likely to be town.
Pine is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi Oma spewing the slot as town, role symmetry with Mathdino, and previously mentioned reasons I was townreading him which still hold: the Alisae play, the Alisae replace, Pine's play, their gamesolving, their thought process, and so on and so forth. (I've posted on this before.)
Nahdia is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi spewing the masonclaimers as town, Nahdia retracting the claim when doing so as scum then would be disadvantageous to scum, and general townplay from both beeboy and Nahdia.
Lovebird is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi spewing the masonclaimers as town, Lovebird's thought process bleeding town when the claim was retracted, and beeboy having a solid read there which is something which may be trustworthy especially from a Team Mafia mod. (Team Mafia mods are privy to some info from Ellibereth.)

That'd leave those four names, yes? Two of which would be scum, yes?

I guess I can lay down an initial vote now.
VOTE: Not_Mafia.
50% odds of being scum aren't the best, but they beat random odds.

[OnTheMark]

Nahdia
MathDino
OnTheMark
Lovebird
Lady Lambdadelta
Pine
Not_Mafia
MOMOMEN

So assume OnTheMark, Pine, Nahdia, and Lovebird are spewed town. (In about that order of strength.)

You're left with:
MathDino
Lady Lambdadelta
Not_Mafia
MOMOMEN

...Two scum in this pool.

If I were asked to rate the confidence in scum being in there. It'd be about 57.5%.
Or rather, both scum.
One scum, good 90%, but we're talking, both remaining scum. That's 57.5%.

Still. I could use some crowdsource feedback on my process here.
NicoRobin and I are conftown by virtue of being masons and also shooting scum.

OnTheMark is more likely town through a combination of their role being Asceticizer when scum had an Ascetic and via play being more likely to be town.
Pine is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi Oma spewing the slot as town, role symmetry with Mathdino, and previously mentioned reasons I was townreading him which still hold: the Alisae play, the Alisae replace, Pine's play, their gamesolving, their thought process, and so on and so forth. (I've posted on this before.)
Nahdia is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi spewing the masonclaimers as town, Nahdia retracting the claim when doing so as scum then would be disadvantageous to scum, and general townplay from both beeboy and Nahdia.
Lovebird is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi spewing the masonclaimers as town, Lovebird's thought process bleeding town when the claim was retracted, and beeboy having a solid read there which is something which may be trustworthy especially from a Team Mafia mod. (Team Mafia mods are privy to some info from Ellibereth.)

That'd leave those four names, yes? Two of which would be scum, yes?

I guess I can lay down an initial vote now.
VOTE: Not_Mafia.
50% odds of being scum aren't the best, but they beat random odds.

I would take LLD out of that pool tbh.

It’s 100% a read of “I know her from being friends and talking sometimes”.

[OnTheMark]

VOTE: MathDino

I feel this more than Not Mafia but if Not Mafia becomes a thing I will go there

[OnTheMark]

@nicorobin: yeah except mastina is lying because she's mastina

Except no I fucking don't lie.

I deceive as town, sure. But I know what deceptions are smart townplay and what are just fucking stupid. I exaggerate as town, sure, but I know when to level with the town. I switch things as town, sure, but I know when to reveal this gambit. Fuck, I wrote a whole fucking article on it; you'd know since you read my MD stuff. It's called Risk-Reward Analysis. (The link to the original MD article needs fixing since it links to the MD article above it, but oh well. Wiki version's probably more up to date anyway.)

The reward from fakeclaiming here is zilch. I gain nothing here. The risk is tremendous. Namely that it leads to a shithole. I'm not fucking stupid. I know when not to pull gambits just as much as I know when to pull gambits. This is NOT a game to gambit in. I do have the minor information held back--I was holding back that NicoRobin enabled me and I am holding back the exact nature of my abilities in spite of claiming that one of my abilities generates a negative utility.

But even there that's calculated. There is zero reward to me revealing what I'm holding back; in contrast, there is a rather significant risk to revealing it.

And the whole time, my play has been governed by that.

There was zero risk in claiming my negative utility. There was great reward because I could croudsource targets, allowing for me to give the option least-damaging for said negative utility, making it the most pro-town as possible. Given that Momomen are confirmed to be Loud, and that their Loudness does not get overriden by my ability, by claiming it I was able to select the optimal target: them.

There was incredible risk and moderate reward in Yume messaging AliPine. I frowned upon it greatly because it was not an action I approved of; the risk was too high for what would only be a moderate reward. In contrast, when I messaged Momomen, there was limited risk and the potential for huge reward since at the time we were not outed as masons.

I was not the one who outed us as masons. That would be AliPine. It was an action I wouldn't have approved of, because there was incredible risk and zero reward to it, but since it was out of my hands, it wasn't something I could do anything about.

I was not the one who outed that I am enabled. That action had incredible risk and moderate reward.

You can notice a stark contrast between actions I take, and actions others take that impact me. Including those of NicoRobin.

When I take an action. It is a calculated risk, meant to optimize reward. Hinting at my theory is a case where there is moderate risk but incredible reward, for instance--a little bit gutsy, but if I'm right, the payoff is huge and overall it's acceptable. Fullclaiming on the other hand would be incredible risk for no reward; not something I'd endorse on D1, but on D2 I am anticipating the equation changing such that the rewards significantly outweigh the risks.

The mason gambit is also a calculated risk. In normal gamestates, it would be an action I'd deem usually low-risk, with the reward being anywhere from moderate to incredible...

...But

in

this

specific gamestate

. The mason gambit has high risk, zilch reward. It gives nothing because Yume and I have roles where we don't really WANT to claim mason. It takes away because of the other claims out there. Mason Cop? If we were fakeclaiming and said mason cop targeted us...LOL WHOOPS. Other mason claims? LOL WHOOPS WE GOT COUNTERCLAIMED.

You see what I mean.

This gamestate, sticking to a mason gambit would be high risk, zero reward.

But we're sticking to our claims...because that's our actual fucking roles. We CAN'T lie and say "lol just gambiting".
Both because that'd be a lie since we fucking ARE masons.

But ALSO because lying about not being masons when we are?

Somewhere between moderate to incredible risk (let's say high), somewhere between zero and moderate (let's say low) reward.

We.
Are.
Masons.

And I don't fucking lie like this.

That is people's perception of me.
Not the reality of me.

so mastina and nicorobin are obviously lying regardless of card right?

This is a fair assessment of OnTheMark's viewpoint, yes.

It is also self-evidently...well, evidence for why he's scum.

Would this remove momomen from the list assuming the loud is confirmed?

[OnTheMark]

[mastina]

VOTECOUNT 1.35

Not_Mafia [2]

- Lady LambdaDelta,

Momrangal

Momrangal

[2]

-

Lovebird

,

MariaR

Lovebird

[1]

-

OnTheMark

MariaR

[7] -

Pine

, MathDino,

mastina, NicoRobin

, Not_Mafia,

Nahdia

, MOMOMEN

Kokichi Oma

[1]

-

Kokichi Oma

So Kokichi was scum off the wagon and was confident there wasn't going to be a scumflip as shown by his self-vote. He could fuck around because scum weren't in any real danger. The question to ask here: all scum off (scumteam is LLD/Lovebird, OnTheMark/Lovebird, or LLD/OnTheMark; I find all of these to be...rather questionable to say the least), one scum on two scum off, or two scum on?

I'm genuinely curious which people think. One scum on, two off, or one scum off, two scum on; it makes a big difference here for scumhunting. CONVENTIONAL wisdom would say two scum on, but I'm not sure I can lock it down.

Spoiler: Additional Rudimentary VCA which is probably worthless thus the spoiler

VOTECOUNT 1.34

Not_Mafia [2]

- Lady LambdaDelta,

Momrangal

OnTheMark

[1]

- MOMOMEN

Momrangal

[3]

-

Lovebird

,

Kokichi Oma

,

MariaR

Lovebird

[1]

-

OnTheMark

MariaR

[5]

- Pine, MathDino,

mastina, NicoRobin

, Not_Mafia

Not Voting [1]:

Nahdia

So there isn't hard data here, but my INSTINCTS tell me that Kokichi Oma didn't want to be associated with the Momrangal wagon--to me, this makes me feel better about Lovebird being town. Potentially also Nahdia, who was also on there, but less so.

VOTECOUNT 1.28

Not_Mafia [3]

- Lady LambdaDelta,

Momrangal

,

OnTheMark

OnTheMark

[4]

-

NicoRobin, mastina

,

Pine

, MOMOMEN

Momrangal

[4]

-

beeboy, Lovebird

,

Kokichi Oma

,

MariaR

mastina

[1]

- Not_Mafia

Not Voting [1]:

CheekyTeeky

So my instincts here say scum aren't focused in any location; they would be evenly distributed. This would make Nahdia and Lovebird be town, and place 0-1 scum in Not_Mafia/Mathdino (doubtful both scum are in the 1s there), 0-1 scum in Pine/MOMOMEN, and 0-1 scum in LLD/OnTheMark, with two of these three groups having one scum and one of these three groups having none.

The key then would be finding which two groups.
If we work on the underlined-as-town, then those groups become 0-1 scum in Not_Mafia/Mathdino, 0-1 scum in MOMOMEN, and 0-1 scum in LLD, leaving possible teams as Not_Mafia/MOMOMEN, Not_Mafia/LLD (doubtful as LLD is voting Not_Mafia), Mathdino/MOMOMEN, Mathdino/LLD, and MOMOMEN/LLD. But that's only under the assumption that the underlined are town.

Btw random number crunching if you do rule out the Not_Mafia/LLD team (not the best assumption, but hey, random numbers are fun), Not_Mafia is only scum in one scenario; LLD is only scum in one scenario; Mathdino and MOMOMEN are scum in two. But if you asked how much trust I place in said numbers, it'd be as close to absolute zero as you can get without reaching zero.

VOTECOUNT 1.11

mastina

[1]

-

Lovebird

Momrangal

[1]

- Lady LambdaDelta

MariaR

[5]

-

mastina

,

Wisdom

, CheekyTeeky,

Momrangal

,

Sudowoodo

CheekyTeeky [1]

- RedFlavor

No Lynch [1]

-

beeboy

Wisdom

[3]

-

MariaR

,

NicoRobin

,

Kokichi Oma

Not Voting [1]:

MOMOMEN

Okay so this jumps out to me as well. Kokichi was on the otherwise-all-town counterwagon to MariaR who we know to be town. I'd strongly think that'd mean both buddies aren't on MariaR, ruling out OnTheMark/Mathdino, OnTheMark/Pine, and Mathdino/Pine. (Of course, two of them are underlined anyway.) There's 0-1 scum in there, and if you operate under the assumption of the underlined as town, it'd be Mathdino.

That still leaves 1-2 scum in the off-voters, the random wagoners. Your options there for a double-scum are Lovebird/LLD, Lovebird/Not_Mafia, Lovebird/Nahdia (definitely not!), Lovebird/MOMOMEN, LLD/Not_Mafia (extremely doubtful), LLD/Nahdia, LLD/MOMOMEN (the only team to not use underlined), Not_Mafia/Nahdia, Not_Mafia/MOMOMEN, or Nahdia/MOMOMEN. A lot of teams, a lot of options.
Even more when you throw in 1 scum in there and 1 scum on MariaR.

In other words--this votecount does give a critical piece of information (the MariaR wagon doesn't have two scum on it), but it's otherwise not very useful.

[mastina]

I would take LLD out of that pool tbh. It’s 100% a read of “I know her from being friends and talking sometimes”.

Frankly that's something I'd be all too happy to do.

Would this remove momomen from the list assuming the loud is confirmed?

Oh I can confirm the Loud is real, but I don't see why that removes them from the pool.

[Not_Mafia]

1 on

VOTE: LLD

[mastina]

1 on
VOTE: LLD

Alright, so you think that LLD/Kokichi were the scum off.

Can you tell me which of Mathdino/MOMOMEN you think is the scum on?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

1 on

VOTE: LLD

why aren't we lynching this slot again?

Because Mathdino is telling us not to?

Pine are you really gonna hold me to that one day thing because I hunger for blood.

[Not_Mafia]

1 on
VOTE: LLD

Alright, so you think that LLD/Kokichi were the scum off.

Can you tell me which of Mathdino/MOMOMEN you think is the scum on?

Momo

[Lady Lambdadelta]

1 on
VOTE: LLD

Alright, so you think that LLD/Kokichi were the scum off.

Can you tell me which of Mathdino/MOMOMEN you think is the scum on?

Momo

This is a scumclaim.

He's actually saying the team is

LLD/Kokichi/Momo.

After my interactions wiht Momo and Kokichi on day 1.

No way. I don't buy that as a genuine read prog.

[Not_Mafia]

I don't remember any of your interactions with MOMO

[OnTheMark]

VOTECOUNT 1.35

Not_Mafia [2]

- Lady LambdaDelta,

Momrangal

Momrangal

[2]

-

Lovebird

,

MariaR

Lovebird

[1]

-

OnTheMark

MariaR

[7] -

Pine

, MathDino,

mastina, NicoRobin

, Not_Mafia,

Nahdia

, MOMOMEN

Kokichi Oma

[1]

-

Kokichi Oma

So Kokichi was scum off the wagon and was confident there wasn't going to be a scumflip as shown by his self-vote. He could fuck around because scum weren't in any real danger. The question to ask here: all scum off (scumteam is LLD/Lovebird, OnTheMark/Lovebird, or LLD/OnTheMark; I find all of these to be...rather questionable to say the least), one scum on two scum off, or two scum on?

I'm genuinely curious which people think. One scum on, two off, or one scum off, two scum on; it makes a big difference here for scumhunting. CONVENTIONAL wisdom would say two scum on, but I'm not sure I can lock it down.

Spoiler: Additional Rudimentary VCA which is probably worthless thus the spoiler

VOTECOUNT 1.34

Not_Mafia [2]

- Lady LambdaDelta,

Momrangal

OnTheMark

[1]

- MOMOMEN

Momrangal

[3]

-

Lovebird

,

Kokichi Oma

,

MariaR

Lovebird

[1]

-

OnTheMark

MariaR

[5]

- Pine, MathDino,

mastina, NicoRobin

, Not_Mafia

Not Voting [1]:

Nahdia

So there isn't hard data here, but my INSTINCTS tell me that Kokichi Oma didn't want to be associated with the Momrangal wagon--to me, this makes me feel better about Lovebird being town. Potentially also Nahdia, who was also on there, but less so.

VOTECOUNT 1.28

Not_Mafia [3]

- Lady LambdaDelta,

Momrangal

,

OnTheMark

OnTheMark

[4]

-

NicoRobin, mastina

,

Pine

, MOMOMEN

Momrangal

[4]

-

beeboy, Lovebird

,

Kokichi Oma

,

MariaR

mastina

[1]

- Not_Mafia

Not Voting [1]:

CheekyTeeky

So my instincts here say scum aren't focused in any location; they would be evenly distributed. This would make Nahdia and Lovebird be town, and place 0-1 scum in Not_Mafia/Mathdino (doubtful both scum are in the 1s there), 0-1 scum in Pine/MOMOMEN, and 0-1 scum in LLD/OnTheMark, with two of these three groups having one scum and one of these three groups having none.

The key then would be finding which two groups.
If we work on the underlined-as-town, then those groups become 0-1 scum in Not_Mafia/Mathdino, 0-1 scum in MOMOMEN, and 0-1 scum in LLD, leaving possible teams as Not_Mafia/MOMOMEN, Not_Mafia/LLD (doubtful as LLD is voting Not_Mafia), Mathdino/MOMOMEN, Mathdino/LLD, and MOMOMEN/LLD. But that's only under the assumption that the underlined are town.

Btw random number crunching if you do rule out the Not_Mafia/LLD team (not the best assumption, but hey, random numbers are fun), Not_Mafia is only scum in one scenario; LLD is only scum in one scenario; Mathdino and MOMOMEN are scum in two. But if you asked how much trust I place in said numbers, it'd be as close to absolute zero as you can get without reaching zero.

VOTECOUNT 1.11

mastina

[1]

-

Lovebird

Momrangal

[1]

- Lady LambdaDelta

MariaR

[5]

-

mastina

,

Wisdom

, CheekyTeeky,

Momrangal

,

Sudowoodo

CheekyTeeky [1]

- RedFlavor

No Lynch [1]

-

beeboy

Wisdom

[3]

-

MariaR

,

NicoRobin

,

Kokichi Oma

Not Voting [1]:

MOMOMEN

Okay so this jumps out to me as well. Kokichi was on the otherwise-all-town counterwagon to MariaR who we know to be town. I'd strongly think that'd mean both buddies aren't on MariaR, ruling out OnTheMark/Mathdino, OnTheMark/Pine, and Mathdino/Pine. (Of course, two of them are underlined anyway.) There's 0-1 scum in there, and if you operate under the assumption of the underlined as town, it'd be Mathdino.

That still leaves 1-2 scum in the off-voters, the random wagoners. Your options there for a double-scum are Lovebird/LLD, Lovebird/Not_Mafia, Lovebird/Nahdia (definitely not!), Lovebird/MOMOMEN, LLD/Not_Mafia (extremely doubtful), LLD/Nahdia, LLD/MOMOMEN (the only team to not use underlined), Not_Mafia/Nahdia, Not_Mafia/MOMOMEN, or Nahdia/MOMOMEN. A lot of teams, a lot of options.
Even more when you throw in 1 scum in there and 1 scum on MariaR.

In other words--this votecount does give a critical piece of information (the MariaR wagon doesn't have two scum on it), but it's otherwise not very useful.

I hate to be that person but can you restate your question please with saying which wagons specifically?

It is hard for me to follow what exactly you are asking for.