Echo Bay Grits SEO [game over]

[Lovebird]

Oh, maybe not.

[Lovebird]

Who do you scumread?

Btw, I wrote my last post before I saw yours. Just fyi

[light_ganski]

Reads are incoming

Do you actually have a reason or a case for scum reading me btw? Cos I haven't seen one yet

[Lovebird]

Of course I have reasons.

[light_ganski]

Trying to sort my thoughts out here
Not in any particular order:

Townier players

Fairly confident townread now on vax
Gammagooey looks better and better through D1 and I think he's town
Davsto and StefanB as well

Scummier players

Ausuka - this is what I mean about not. Being. Able. To. Townread. Players. In. This. Game/ This is not by any means a confident scumread but there's something in my gut niggling me about this one
Theta Alpine strikes me as a

possible

second partner to taly? Its a weak af read but those two's TRs of each other don't look at all natural
Austerity and wingedcatgirl both feel like lacklustre scum, not really rocking the boat or pushing anything hard (case in point wingedcatgirl's unnecessary hesitation in her D1 shot, I get caution and discussion because I'm generally a cautious player but this strikes me as scared scum)
Lovebird is likely scum. The disagreements with taly D1 doesn't strike me as townie vs scum but as one team vs the other and her entry today screams "I'm bragging about shooting scum". Ergo she is the most likely munitions goon I am seeing atm. The fact she DIDN'T just shoot me straight out

marginally

improves my opinion of this slot but I'm still highly suspicious

Spoiler: PRICKS question

I know some people have made the relevant point as to whether PRICKS membership is inherently scummy or not; for the most part I see it as NAI for this reason: IF YOU ARE TOWN ITS PRO TOWN TO STAY ALIVE, it means there's one more living townie and scum are one shot further from winning. Thereby joining PRICKS is an objectively good decision WHICHEVER ALIGNMENT YOU ARE, because not getting caught in the crossfire of day one's lolkills furthers your win condition either way, which is why there's

probably

both in it but I wouldn't view membership as evidence of

either

. Sorry for the capslock attack but I feel people are really overlooking this and it's a kinda obvious point. if there's another reason I should

specifically

be scumreading PRICKS please do tell

Second post coming up

[light_ganski]

And yes there's a reason I've left worst out of this list I'll get to that in the next post

[the worst]

I'm ~special~

[light_ganski]

Sorry all I'm terrible at writing posts quickly, but I'm concerned *someone* is gonna shoot me unnecessarily and I won't be able to get all my thoughts out and I have some highly pertinent points to make here that no one else has brought up properly yet

So to the mysterious third nightkill.
First of all I do NOT buy the idea of there being a night vigilante in this setup, if anyone has reasons otherwise do tell us.

So that leaves us with SK or third scum team. I'm not completely ruling out the possibility of the latter, but I find it unlikely considering:

• > What we already know from the setup and flavour, it is strongly suggested that there are only two teams representing the two companies (grits and munitions) AND that flavour suggests the existence of a singular 'executioner' character (less so the second point but its still relevant)
  > The lack of strongman flips OR kills: we had one NK (TheBrie) that was presumably carried out by a strongman but none of the scum yet flipped were strongmen, and no-one has been strongman-killed during the day phase. This is weak evidence for there only being a strongman SK as opposed to there being strongmen on the scum teams (though I accept this is a much weaker point)

This leaves us with the problem of finding the serial killer, which is the main reason its taken me ages to make these posts, because this has been niggling me. How does one find an SK in this mess? How would one play as an SK in this mess? Thats what I've been trying to think through:

• > Firstly, whilst avoiding the day one
  shit
  shotshow is beneficial no matter your alignment its vital as SK... if you die you've lost. So whilst I don't think PRICKS membership is alignment indicative as to town vs group!scum,
  it is highly likely that the SK was within PRICKS
  
  > Secondly, in a single-ball game, playing as SK is considered so difficult and anti-fun by many players precisely because they've got to look townie enough not to be a lynch target and not townie enough or threatening enough to be an NK target. But in a game with at least two factions, where some players believe there's a third faction, and where it is possible other factions have traitors as grits had one, looking scummy is likely to draw shots from scum looking for the other team or looking to recruit their traitor (it was confirmed in signups this game had recruiting traitors, correct?). Thereby, an SK would best fulfil their win conditions by playing townie and not drawing scumreads

We also know that:

• > There is the explicit possibility in the sign up thread for multiple shot bulletproofs, and the worst has already claimed to be one, yet no other multiple shot bullet proofs have been flipped and as far as I recall there's no one else alive who a shot has failed on, which suggests that there is a dearth of 2+ shot BPs in this game

The worst in 1436 suggested he thinks he's the only multi shot BP, which could be innocuous but feels to me like the fact he KNOWS this is likely the case...

Because it would make sense for ONLY the SK to get extra BP shots, as if they don't in this set up their win condition (killing everyone else) is significantly more difficult to reach

Let me draw your attention to 1429:

we have had exactly zero non-1-shot and exactly zero strongman flips
discuss

I believe it is highly likely, as I have set out, that ONLY the SK has multiple BP shots, and ONLY the SK is a strongman.

The worst fits the profile of how I would expect a serial killer to play in this game. He has been generally townread and played an upfront open game, making more posts than any other player and generally being one of the more well-explained players. He was one of the earliest members of PRICKS (see 167, 169). He is also claimed two-shot bulletproof, and appears to believe he is the only one (1436).

At this point I am

fairly

confident in reading the worst as serial killer, but obviously I would like to see what others think of this and I will not be depriving myself of my shot on him anytime soon. Open for comment.

[Ausuka]

I may shoot theta alpine today.

Multiball is hard.

[the worst]

whilst I am a serial thriller, and kill cereal when the mood takes me, you are on the wrong track.

[the worst]

also highly disinterested in hunting for a serial killer until we have 1+ more groupscum flip, minimum.

[light_ganski]

I have not decided where I will shoot today but I would NOT like to see the worst or lovebird survive to endgame, and I am seriously concerned that I can't work ausuka out.

[the worst]

damnit ganski I thought you were cool.

[light_ganski]

also highly disinterested in hunting for a serial killer until we have 1+ more groupscum flip, minimum.

Very fair point, if I didn't think you were SK. But this reads of misdirection to me: "let's look for group!scum (which we're already doing) because I'm not group!scum so people won't shoot at me and I'll survive to endgame with unspent BP shot(s)"

[light_ganski]

damnit ganski I thought you were cool.

AtE

[the worst]

I AtE as either alignment. god I love your hair today did you do something different?

[the worst]

Pretty sure I never survive til endgame. I was 100% expecting to die last night.i probably eat a scum strongman shot tonight.

[light_ganski]

Blue dye and highlights, thank you for noticing

[the worst]

I find it easier eliminating groupscum then taking out a serial killer once the smoke has cleared (SKs in theory play like a survivalist version of townies, whereas scum have each other to back up and need to intentionally misdirect to a degree--even in multiball). It's not misdirection, it's literally "let's shoot scum with associatives first then if we don't win the game shoot other scumfucks"

pedit: that upside down look suits you too ^_^

[the worst]

OK I accept that is literally misdirection. But it is well intended misdirection

[light_ganski]

"let's shoot scum with associatives first then if we don't win the game shoot other scumfucks"

Usually I would agree but IMO we've already got enough information to deduce the SK's existence

[the worst]

groupscum win by outnumbering SK
SK wins by killing all groupscum
town wins by killing both

why not use the part of the SK wincon that lines up with ours? It's very unlikely they become death proof just by the rest of the scumteams dying.

[Ausuka]

I'm starting to think we should've all just random shot at the start of the game.

[the worst]

I'm starting to think we should've all just random shot at the start of the game.

amen sista

tbh town would more likely win via taking random shots at this stage (assuming scum play along) but that also takes all the fun out of it

[light_ganski]

No, but they are safer because they are no longer at risk of being NKed.

And I'd rather hunt and eliminate both group!scum and the SK as quickly as possible, rather than leave one for later. Be vigilant of all threats, not just those that are most prominent