In post 3961, mastina wrote:Nahdia
MathDino
OnTheMark
Lovebird
Lady Lambdadelta
Pine
Not_Mafia
MOMOMEN
So assume OnTheMark, Pine, Nahdia, and Lovebird are spewed town. (In about that order of strength.)
You're left with:
MathDino
Lady Lambdadelta
Not_Mafia
MOMOMEN
...Two scum in this pool.
If I were asked to rate the confidence in scum being in there. It'd be about 57.5%.
Or rather, both scum.
One scum, good 90%, but we're talking, both remaining scum. That's 57.5%.
Still. I could use some crowdsource feedback on my process here.
NicoRobin and I are conftown by virtue of being masons and also shooting scum.
OnTheMark is more likely town through a combination of their role being Asceticizer when scum had an Ascetic and via play being more likely to be town.
Pine is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi Oma spewing the slot as town, role symmetry with Mathdino, and previously mentioned reasons I was townreading him which still hold: the Alisae play, the Alisae replace, Pine's play, their gamesolving, their thought process, and so on and so forth. (I've posted on this before.)
Nahdia is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi spewing the masonclaimers as town, Nahdia retracting the claim when doing so as scum then would be disadvantageous to scum, and general townplay from both beeboy and Nahdia.
Lovebird is more likely town through a combination of Kokichi spewing the masonclaimers as town, Lovebird's thought process bleeding town when the claim was retracted, and beeboy having a solid read there which is something which may be trustworthy especially from a Team Mafia mod. (Team Mafia mods are privy to some info from Ellibereth.)
That'd leave those four names, yes? Two of which would be scum, yes?
I guess I can lay down an initial vote now.
VOTE: Not_Mafia.
50% odds of being scum aren't the best, but they beat random odds.