Echo Bay Grits SEO [game over]

[StefanB]

Rereading Lovebirds ISO I see what people meaned.
There was also a very early point about most scum are traitors, tell me where that came from?

[light_ganski]

SO here is how I see it.

There were 3

scum

bad factions and now there are 2

Flips
2 grits goons plus a grit traitor 1 shot BP
1 munitions goon
???

So with 1 team completely wiped (I can only assume so. I cant imagine a 4 person scum team with 3 factions with what we have left... unless the rest of you are all scum, which is mind boggling) This gives us a good idea of what to expect with the other scum teams.

With 11 people alive, if the other teams follow the same exact setup, it means we would have 5 scum left (seems unlikely)

Im thinking the munitions scum team may consist of a goon + Strongman (and only be 2 ppl)
And the third team could be the same OR consist of 2 goons and a traitor.

This setup seems unlikely to me (vs scum teams with 3/4 members), and even if it turns out to be correct I don't want to presume we've got all of the grits, I don't want a nasty surprise in that regard

[light_ganski]

/Also think SK is more likely than third team

[the worst]

I'm so disgusted that the only Munitions goon we've taken out was fkn Not_Mafia of all people

[light_ganski]

Rereading Lovebirds ISO I see what people meaned.
There was also a very early point about most scum are traitors, tell me where that came from?

I think that point was a misunderstanding of "there are mafia team(s) with at least 2 goons" as "the mafia teams ONLY have 2 goons"

Though I am fine with a lovebird shot too atm. Her activity today (and she's posted quite a few times) consists of bragging about the taly shot (1385, 1386, 1387), making a list in which she seems to want most people shot (1393) without reasoning, and threatening to shoot me (1473) without feeling the need to divulge why

[Vaxkiller]

BTW im town reading Aust

[Vaxkiller]

altho... now taht we know there are multiple factions... nm

[Vaxkiller]

Yesterday ico didnt want to lynch him, but since he flipped grits, and grits team HAS to be no more. Now I dont know.

[StefanB]

Yesterday ico didnt want to lynch him, but since he flipped grits, and grits team HAS to be no more. Now I dont know.

That deppends if there is a SK, teams of 4 are posible. If there is another goon or a traitor is another question.

[Theta Alpine]

theta do you have anything to say about the game today?
-snip-
I was expecting other people to shoot by this point but I'll go ahead and say I'll shoot on friday if nobody else has by then.

sorry about that got a little distracted with other things
i still need to figure out what is going on in this game
i was expecting two night kills

three night kills kind of threw me off

also in other news i just realized we only have a few days before we have to make a shot or risk ending the day early [due to the 7-day from last shot/game start deadline]

I'm so disgusted that the only Munitions goon we've taken out was fkn Not_Mafia of all people

eh better then not having any munitions flipped
that would have been a nasty surprise

altho... now taht we know there are multiple factions... nm

we have literally known that since snarky flipped [not not mafia since you never specified anti-town factions]
we do know that we have at least 2 factions/players capable of making night-kills
and that we have not won yet so there is at least one anti-town player left

VOTE: lovebird
i do think everyone should do pseudo-votes for who we kill on friday

i would also like to suggest that we make a list of people and have the scummiest person be shot by the next-scummiest person
that way the town hopefully gets to save their shots and scum hopefully loses theirs [preventing most of the auto-loss conditions]

[Gammagooey]

theta have you actually read everything from today yet?

austerity had basically the same idea as you that's been commented on already. (with dav and I both saying that plan is basically a town loss if there are scum anywhere near the top, when scum will be pushing their scumbuddy higher on the list, b/c of likely bulletproofs left in the game [at least SK+traitor if teams are identical, if not more])

a lot of people have said that they both want light_ganski to live through today and lovebird to prob die before the end of it though so if you want to make those things happen between you and other people you can probably figure it out

[Theta Alpine]

theta have you actually read everything from today yet?

austerity had basically the same idea as you that's been commented on already. (with dav and I both saying that plan is basically a town loss if there are scum anywhere near the top, when scum will be pushing their scumbuddy higher on the list, b/c of likely bulletproofs left in the game [at least SK+traitor if teams are identical, if not more])

a lot of people have said that they both want light_ganski to live through today and lovebird to prob die before the end of it though so if you want to make those things happen between you and other people you can probably figure it out

i have read a bit though i need to read more

i already know that the plan that was suggested results in a town loss if scum are in the upper ranks
i have a work around though
the post i am working on [also has my reads] details the plan

[Vaxkiller]

we have literally known that since snarky flipped [not not mafia since you never specified anti-town factions]

Known how?

[Theta Alpine]

because we had the second faction flip at that point [the first was echo bay citizens]

[Ausuka]

I kinda want to shoot the worst and get rid of his BP so I don't have to face consequences for the poor decisions I would otherwise make.

[Ausuka]

Really though, I don't even know who to shoot at this point and mafia isn't fun.

the worst
Davsto
Austerity
Lovebird
light_ganski
Theta Alpine
wingedcatgirl
Gammagooey

I guess Theta is still a decent shot.

[Theta Alpine]

the worst is probably town so there should be no need to get rid of their bp

after some figuring
we need to have 4 people alive at the end of the day to prevent end-gaming by scum if there is one scum left at that time
[preventing a situation where if we have 3 people alive and one of the non-scum players has used their shot then scum can auto-win by shooting the player with their shot and then night killing the other player]

if we have 2 scum from the same faction it becomes 6 people to prevent auto-loss
[again preventing the auto-win scum would have at 5 people]

and in any situation where more than one scum faction is active then as long as we have at least 3 town players alive we prevent auto-loss

if we have a night vig then this becomes a bit easier as scum cannot auto-win with one player as long as the night vig also has their day shot

in the one scum left scenario if the scum player has a bullet-proof then it goes up to 5 players to prevent auto-loss
in the two scum left scenario it goes up to 7 players if at least one of the scum players has bullet-proof
town having bullet-proof would do the opposite but we should not rely on that given the strongman shot we have seen


so when we make a list our goal is to get either at most one scum in a group of 4 or more players or at most 2 scum in a group of 6 or more players
the size of the group depending on how the flips up to that point work out

then a night kill happens and this games equivalent to lylo plays out

lovebird [their posting today has been wtf]
vaxkiller [not someone i am confident is town]
austerity [your suggestion results in a town auto-loss as detailed in the previous part of my post]
ausuka [your kill yesterday was on a traitor and also from the hopefully dead team so no more town points for it]

-if we have only 1 or 2 scum flips including the sk at this point we stop here-

wingedcatgirl [you did shoot scum but wow you dragged your feet a long time]

-we stop shooting at this point if we suspect the last scum has bullet-proof-

stefanb

-we stop shooting at this point regardless of any other factors-

gammagooey [you have made some good points recently and you noticed the flaws with the plan that had already been proposed]
light ganski [thoughts on you being town have already been made]
davsto [a lot of good points and you also noticed the flaw with the plan austerity made]
the worst [this is town basically all of the time for reasons already explained]

[Ausuka]

uhhh why is the worst probtown ???

also yeah we're not following Theta's thing.

[Theta Alpine]

uhhh why is the worst probtown ???

also yeah we're not following Theta's thing.

did i miss something

why is the worst not town

[Ausuka]

1. that isn't what I asked- you didn't put him as null, you literally

bet the game on him being town aligned,

so you must have some reason for that beside "there's no reason for him to be scum." You said the reasons have already be explained but I didn't see that.

2. because he has more than 1-shot BP and that's a SK thing. (or a scum fakeclaim)

[Theta Alpine]

1. that isn't what I asked- you didn't put him as null, you literally

bet the game on him being town aligned,

so you must have some reason for that beside "there's no reason for him to be scum." You said the reasons have already be explained but I didn't see that.

2. because he has more than 1-shot BP and that's a SK thing. (or a scum fakeclaim)

1- no i bet the game on there only being one scum in the last 4 people in that list
that is a different thing

2- why would the worst have claimed that as sk

[Ausuka]

1. The game doesn't end at that point and you had him as your strongest townread, so surely you want him to survive?

2. because that's his real role and he thinks it might discourage shooting him?

[StefanB]

First problem with that plan.
You have a BP in your survivorgroup, on whit a still active BP. This is a powerinbalance, means that if The Worst is the SK, we have to be very careful to not let him get into a position were he can endgame the town. (And I am to paranoid of the only claimed 2-shot BP, to not at last think this is a posibility)

I am also a bit unconfartable, with Gamma in there. (it may be that we haven't got that many townish players left so we have to take risks)

[Theta Alpine]

First problem with that plan.
You have a BP in your survivorgroup, on whit a still active BP. This is a powerinbalance, means that if The Worst is the SK, we have to be very careful to not let him get into a position were he can endgame the town. (And I am to paranoid of the only claimed 2-shot BP, to not at last think this is a posibility)

I am also a bit unconfartable, with Gamma in there. (it may be that we haven't got that many townish players left so we have to take risks)

that is true
if we include the worst in the group of people that survive today then we will need 5 people to go through to prevent an autoloss from that

and if you are worried about gamma
then just make your own list with a better suggestion

[StefanB]

I look at the playerlist and yeah there is the problem that we don't have that many great choices.
the worst *
Ausuka
Davsto *
Austerity
Vaxkiller
Lovebird
StefanB
light_ganski *
Theta Alpine
wingedcatgirl
Gammagooey *

I marked your 4. I don't know who I really am not paranoid to have as replacement or fith.
What do the selected players think?

But somethink very important that you and I forgot: The Worst has already killed today.