Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

[Wisdom]

So, everyone. Unless you want to tell me why one of the above scumteams is likely to be the case, you should vote G1.

[Eddie Cane]

you know, if i could feel better about you being town (or at least about the odds of you and NSG not being scum together), i'd vote G3 today. i'm pretty sure wisdom+NSG is not a thing and i'm pretty sure wisdom+you is not a thing (though, if it is, kudos to you, because everything about today has been acted out so well that i wouldn't even feel bad about losing to it)

you are good enough to know to respect good dead players at least to a degree. does that say anything to you?

(this is specifically wrt scumreading roj and fitz, I think cakez fosd me and the rest of the dead trd me so split)

why am I the only person commenting on DV getting killed after a pretty unremarkable d1 with barely any comments on or against? lol

[BuJaber]

I still think Eddie/muffin/koki is more likely than nsg/koki/RMOJ

From my pov the options are (assuming wis town):
Eddie/muffin/koki
Eddie/nsg/koki
Koki/nsg/rmoj
Muffin/nsg/koki

math says nsg is more likely scum than eddie
Fitz will never vote with me. G2 won't vote g2. I tried to change your mimd but couldn't. I literally can't get enough votes.

Not how I imagined it but VOTE: group 1

[northsidegal]

I still think Eddie/muffin/koki is more likely than nsg/koki/RMOJ

From my pov the options are (assuming wis town):
Eddie/muffin/koki
Eddie/nsg/koki
Koki/nsg/rmoj
Muffin/nsg/koki

math says nsg is more likely scum than eddie
Fitz will never vote with me. G2 won't vote g2. I tried to change your mimd but couldn't. I literally can't get enough votes.

Not how I imagined it but VOTE: group 1

remind me again why you've completely discounted the possibility of anyone in group 3 being scum?

like, where are you coming from with

nobody

in your group being scum?

[BuJaber]

Rmoj and koki are both in my group

[BuJaber]

I don't understand what you're referring to

[northsidegal]

my bad, misread - i think the number of combinations threw me off.

i still don't believe you're entertaining the thought of two scum being in group 3, though.

[Eddie Cane]

Where I'm at right now approximately:

Town

BuJaber
Wisdom
Dramonic

[GAP]

Northsidegal
Koki
Muffin

[GAP]

SirCakez
Eddie Cane

[GAP]

Riku
REALMEN
Pine

[GAP]

Havingfitz

Scum

he was killed for a reason


...his only two living scumreads are group 3

muffin you of all people should know this .-.

[Wisdom]

eddie and nsg both ignore my post and push other angles

lel

[BuJaber]

If you mean before the switch then I do account for one optiom of RMOJ being scum in g3 pre-switch.

But yes I believe 1/1/1 split is a losing tactic for scum when eddie is a mover and we have a guilty. If he is scum his move means they can do any partition they want and then manipulate in the best way based on votes/and town's reads. If eddie is town they would have to assume he will put 2 of me/koki/wis together.

[zMuffinMan]

@NSG,

asking for a read independent of associatives seems pretty silly to me, since associations are a pretty important part of how i read the game and it's hard to take that context out of it

but ok. on D1, i actually didn't mind your early play because i thought the way you were reading kokichi seemed townish (it was at a time where not many people were giving reads and i thought the initiative taken seemed townish - this was also partially based on the assumption that your read here would evolve or be expanded on at some point, which didn't really happen) and i thought your reaction to DV's pressure seemed town (mostly the bluntness with which you reproached him) but other than that, you left no impression on me D1 and i don't remember any of your other posts very well. you either weren't around for important events or when you were around, you provided mostly innocuous commentary (e.g. asking wisdom to check his buj read but not actually suggesting you thought buj could be scum), which makes me think you were in a pretty comfortable position (nobody really calling you scum, not in any particular danger) and you didn't want to rock the boat much

as for your play today, the thing that bothers me most is how you're interacting with wisdom. i think if i were town in your shoes and i thought wisdom was town making a game-throwing move, i'd be doing everything in my power to change his mind - instead it feels a bit like you've thrown in the towel (also i think the "enjoy throwing the game two days in a row" comment was disingenuous, given you didn't voice any discontent with his decision D1 apart from asking him to check the buj read). you haven't been doing much in the way of game-solving (e.g. unless you think all three scum are in G3, at the very least you should be doing more to sort me+eddie, though i guess your question here counts as doing that to some extent)

you are the person outside of G3 i think is most likely scum

[northsidegal]

bujaber, unvote for a second, because i seriously want to talk about this because from the way i'm currently approaching the game there's literally no chance town wins if you're voting me (not necessarily you specifically, just saying)

eddie and nsg both ignore my post and push other angles

lel

you've already shown me that you don't care about interacting with me. if you actually care about a response, your reasoning for:

muffin/Kokichi/fitz
muffin/Kokichi/Realmen
Eddie/Bu/muffin

fitz/Bu/Realmen

and

fitz/Kokichi/Realmen

really is not strong enough to warrant anything, especially the sort of confidence that you have. i think your assumptions about what scum would or wouldn't do are faulty (and probably are going to lose us the game).

[Eddie Cane]

eddie and nsg both ignore my post and push other angles

lel

ignore what

lel

[zMuffinMan]

muffin you of all people should know this .-.

i do know this. if DV didn't flip a PR, i would be thinking this right now. i actually figured if you were town, you'd be dead today, because leaving your role alive in this game seems stupid given it has potential to wreck scum completely. but DV died over you and i'm currently thinking that scum picked up on a PR tell from him so his reads aren't an all-important factor to me atm

[Eddie Cane]

This is the D2 partition for reference:

1	2	3
northsidegal	Eddie Cane	BuJaber
Wisdom	Kokichi Oma	havingfitz
	zMuffinMan	REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

These are all the possibilities if both me and nsg are town:

Eddie/Kokichi/Bu
muffin/Kokichi/Bu
Bu/Kokichi/fitz
Bu/Kokichi/Realmen

Those are all extremely unlikely because Bu and Kokichi being both scum means that Kokichi fakeclaimed a guilty on a group that contained himself AND a buddy.

Eddie/Kokichi/muffin

Scum lose on a G2 lynch. Okay, sure, Eddie has the move so he'll move Kokichi out, but this is a bad grouping for scum because Eddie and muffin are bound to be suspected because of roles. If town ends up lynching G2 after the move, Kokichi is a natural follow up so they're still losing.

Eddie/Kokichi/fitz
Eddie/Kokichi/Realmen

Unlikely because Eddie doesn't move Kokichi to the group his other scumbuddy is in. He had infinite excuses to move him to G1.

muffin/Kokichi/fitz
muffin/Kokichi/Realmen
Eddie/Bu/muffin

Slightly more probable than muffin/Kokichi/Eddie but still, it's unlikely muffin chooses to group himself with Kokichi and Eddie. It's a group that gets lynched most of the time and losing two scum is not a good idea.

muffin/Bu/fitz
muffin/Bu/Realmen

Same as above, except it's even worse. If G2 isn't lynched and G3 is, muffin loses both buddies.

Eddie/Bu/fitz
Eddie/Bu/Realmen

Eddie does not move the heavily suspected Kokichi to a group with TWO of his buddies, especially since this brings Bu and Kokichi in the same group and makes it the most likely lynch to go through.

fitz/Bu/Realmen

Nope. Scum don't all go in G3. And if they did this they'd at least put Kokichi and me together to make it likely that's what's getting lynched.

fitz/Kokichi/Realmen

A little better than the above but still a risky choice when Bu is one of the guilties. Lynching G3 gets rid of two scum and Bu, and basically makes sure Kokichi is never winning this.

you mean the shit post that was a waste of probably 30 minutes of your time?

team solving isnt gonna win, 3 scum have way too many variables.

[Eddie Cane]

muffin you of all people should know this .-.

i do know this. if DV didn't flip a PR, i would be thinking this right now. i actually figured if you were town, you'd be dead today, because leaving your role alive in this game seems stupid given it has potential to wreck scum completely. but DV died over you and i'm currently thinking that scum picked up on a PR tell from him so his reads aren't an all-important factor to me atm

I highly doubt there was a PR tell. He barely posted or addressed PRs.

I thought I'd be dead and wouldn't get to point out koks guilty fwis

[BuJaber]

My post continued: Meaning that pre switch we had some combination of 1/2/0 split or 0/3/0 split.

The combination of putting 1 scum in each group AND 1 of each of the guilty pool in each group is implausible to me and eddie being a mover. It is a very bad strategy imo and I don't think any of the living players are bad enough to think it's the way to go.

-pedit fine VOTE: unvote

Consider my vote on g1 for the time being.

[northsidegal]

as for your play today, the thing that bothers me most is how you're interacting with wisdom. i think if i were town in your shoes and i thought wisdom was town making a game-throwing move, i'd be doing everything in my power to change his mind - instead it feels a bit like you've thrown in the towel

i don't have any pretense that i can change his mind given his reputation for tunnelling and given that i already was kind of disengaged from this game. especially given that the move that i currently view as the only way town can win this (lynching group 3) becomes basically an impossible task with wisdom committed to lynching us, yeah, i guess you could say i've "thrown in the towel". at the very least, i don't feel confident in my ability to somehow come back from this.

(also i think the "enjoy throwing the game two days in a row" comment was disingenuous, given you didn't voice any discontent with his decision D1 apart from asking him to check the buj read). you haven't been doing much in the way of game-solving (e.g. unless you think all three scum are in G3, at the very least you should be doing more to sort me+eddie, though i guess your question here counts as doing that to some extent)

i had no problems with what he was doing yesterday at the time, it was more of a comment looking back.

you seem like someone who would care, so i suggest you look through my scum meta (i keep my wiki up to date) - i am very obviously town this game taking that into account.

[Wisdom]

bu id rather you kept your vote on so we can start crossing off scumteams when they dont hammer

[Eddie Cane]

nsgs posts are kind of pinging me fwiw

nsg got prodded elsewhere too, it wasnt game specific so it wasnt just scum her being apathetic. she flaked a lot as town in the game I was scum against her too. her early posting was town. her posting today is blah.

if we assume nsgs xcum (hey look wis I'm bussing my second partner now) qheres the third scum? wisdom is town, buj is town... muffin is way townier than roj and fitz and the fact literally every dead player wanted fits and most roj iirc. both are scumfucks. so maybe nsg is scum, but lynching group 3 nets scum always. wisdom agrees with this in a town!eddie universe, do you disagree buj?

[northsidegal]

My post continued: Meaning that pre switch we had some combination of 1/2/0 split or 0/3/0 split.

The combination of putting 1 scum in each group AND 1 of each of the guilty pool in each group is implausible to me and eddie being a mover. It is a very bad strategy imo and I don't think any of the living players are bad enough to think it's the way to go.

-pedit fine VOTE: unvote

Consider my vote on g1 for the time being.

i might have to go in a moment but i still want to take this time to talk so i should be back soon.

first, i just want to get a refernce frame for where you're coming from. i know that you're townreading wisdom, scumreading kokichi, i'm not sure if you're still scumreading eddie for the swap or not.

from where i'm standing i'm fairly confident that scum went for either a 2/1 or 3/0 split - i'm still conflicted on you!town or not, but let's look at this from the perspective of you being town.

do you think that

both

fitz and RMOJ are town?

[zMuffinMan]

He barely posted or addressed PRs

that's not strictly true. i went through his ISO to check to make sure i wasn't just thinking something stupid when i started thinking about why DV died. he did talk about roles (he just didn't really address any players specifically while talking about them). a quick example: 710 which was long before cakez's claim and at a point where you hadn't hard-claimed anything

[Eddie Cane]

i dunno man. even if they thought he was a pr they wouldn't kill him if they thought he had shit reads. the only two people I even remember acknowledging him are me (town) and you (meh town)

[Wisdom]

hey look wis I'm bussing my second partner now

yeah only to prove a point that g3 is still better
not exactly bussing

[Eddie Cane]

hey look wis I'm bussing my second partner now

yeah only to prove a point that g3 is still better
not exactly bussing

a point you agree with