Echo Bay Grits SEO dead thread

[TheBrie]

Right now I have a vague feeling that Vax and the worst could be scum together. I'm not sure where it's come from except the fact that if they are they're doing a brilliant job of not looking like they're working together.

[Ankamius]

Xyzzy are you talking to me with that post?

[Ankamius]

There's very little risk to ganski outright outing the SK stuff she is since it's very likely to be worst.

[Ankamius]

Watch

Ganski stating a scumread on Lovebird is going to be the reason they get shot

[Ankamius]

They have around three days to take a shot before the day ends.

[Taly]

TW and Vax could be NMs partners

[Ankamius]

Gammagooey
Austerity
wingedcatgirl

Toranaga

Davsto
StefanB

the worst
Theta Alpine

Vaxkiller

light_ganski
Ausuka

Lovebird

Roughly where I'm at

Still here for reads except worst is sk

[Ankamius]

Where's the stuff moi promised

[MagnaofIllusion]

Still sitting on the laptop. I frankly haven’t been motivated to actually retrieve it given I posted my reads and no one seemed interested. Probably will get around to posting tonight or more likely tomorrow.

[Ankamius]

I kinda want to have a friendly competition with this

But that requires people shooting

[Ankamius]

YES Davsto YES

[TheBrie]

I don't know what to think. I'm sort of glad I'm dead just so I don't have to deal with it.

[Ankamius]

Yeah, you have to deal with me instead

Which probably is worse tbh

[Taly]

Lol I'm so glad I'm dead honestly

Being scum is exhausting because I'm a much stronger townplayer and it's hard to replicate that.

I could feel the fake helpfulness coming from my posts throughout D1

[TheBrie]

Yeah, you have to deal with me instead

Which probably is worse tbh

But I know what you are. Dead. And since I'm dead, I can do whatever I like without risk of getting killed.

[Ankamius]

Yeah but I'm crazier

[Ankamius]

the worst is not town because the worst is the SK

[MagnaofIllusion]

Btw it is pretty telling that nobody is even bothering to look at NKed Town’s reads .

[Ankamius]

no but worst is taking MY reads into account

[Taly]

I mean I could've been NKed off reads too

Everyone either though I was locktown or near confscum a d this game has potentially 4 different factions.

I doubt towns going to win...

[TheBrie]

Looking at my reads won't help them.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So in the box is what I had prepared for post night. Nothing altered. The only changes I would make to living players would probably be that theWorst is likely SK not Munitions Traitor.

Let me start by saying this is all done before Nightfall is over. Any changes to reads based on deaths overnight will come after a clear break.

First I’ll go into some very general thoughts. My theory on PRICKS still absolutely holds. With an Ico scum flip I think there are likely at least 1-2 more scum in there and at least one Munitions scum.

Sando made a very good point early on at 241. I think scum are more likely to hold their shots early Day 1 of this game. The wild and wooly early game got a number of Town killed for from the hip shots and scum have incentive to NOT have that happen when so many bullets out there. Which also dovetails into why PRICKS was attractive to scum … it gave them a reason to hold their shots and a protection. 1226 I think supports this theory as I’m Town reading most of the unflipped early shots at this stage.

Also I disagree completely with anyone who pushes “Player X shot non-Traitor scum, they were bussing”. In a multi-scum game it doesn’t pay to bus with Daykills as the inherent Town cred for that kill just makes you a target for being killed at Night.

So let’s filter my reads right now.

Vaxkiller, Lovebird, Ausuka, Light and Gamma are what I would call Townreads. During my read-though I noticed with each that as the game progressed they made posts and observations that aligned with my thoughts at that stage. In a couple of occasions I found myself thinking “I just wrote that in my notes”. Gamma is probably the weakest as I read through I was completely backwards in assessments about NotMafia partners (I think Taly is much more likely to be Grits due to massive Ico links) but I had the advantage of hindsight so it wasn’t enough to deter me from putting him in my Town right now.

Now let’s talk my top scum reads first.

Theta I think is very, VERY likely to be scum and a great NotMafia partner candidate. 319 looks like a “Hey, look I’m positing singleball it shows I’m not scum” post to me. 789 very much looks like a Beetlejuice post to me. He had just been called out for having little content among the PRICKS (think it was TheBrie but forgot to jot down who specifically in my notes) and pops in with a IIoA post that looks great on the surface but in the game at that point is unwieldy and isn’t helpful to actually finding scum. If anything it just is a way for scum to figure out who Town would shoot and aim away from them at Night. I also think his shot on Hebi is scum motivated. Look at his reads list and see where Hebi was residing as opposed to NotMafia. He postured about NotMafia but knee-jerked a shot on Hebi for “Oh my god he killed Creature” which was an absolutely safe shot on a “not partner” given the general feelings about Creature being Town. Lastly I think his 1132 is scum indicative and links him to Arch / Tora – he’s calling the best shots two low content posters (who I know are both Town) but completely ignored Tora’s slot.

Tora likewise I think is scum and has links to Theta that make me think partner. Firstly both slots have very, very scummy entrance posts that look like trying to “Jungle Town” tell. Before his shot he mentions that Theta looks scummy but ends up shooting Town instead of his scum read. He mentions Random not an iota before that shot. And then goes back to distancing from Theta. And his ISO is filled with active lurking with very little content.

If either on flips non-Traitor Munitions the other should be ventilated ASAP.

Now on the Grits side I think Taly fits that bill to a tee. His ISO is filled with posts that link him to Ico. 250 is an example … he’s bemoaning that Varsoon might have an actual reason to suspect Ico but doesn’t re-read or do anything with it. Soft distancing in my mind. And his repeated waffling on “Oh I think Ico is scum but I want a case” near the end of day is indicative of not wanting to be caught not suspecting Ico but not wanting to encourage Ico’s death. 851 I see as further distancing as Ico was a supposed top shot but that evaporated later. 1297 I think also is a link to Ico.

Likewise I think 570 points to not being a NotMafia partner and I don’t see my Munitions read in Theta being aligned with him either based on 1251.

So those would be my top shots.

Who else is in my scum pool but not as strongly?

Winged I still suspect for all the reasons I articulated before – too much “Mother May I?” posting regarding using her shot and no attempt to parse anyone’s alignment. I think I boxed her in with my call-out about her scum-claiming that meant she needed to shoot Ico to have a chance at surviving Day 2. I acknowledge she could just maybe be lazy and bad Town which is why she isn’t in my Top scum picks but it would be a long way for me to actually Town read her.

Austerity is a tough nugget for me. I want to Townread her on the strength of 434 and a few others but her strong Town read on WCG completely throws me. I don’t see any reason to near lock-town that slot. A WCG scum flip would catapult her into the top of my scum reads but Winged being Town would move her to weak Town.

theWorst actually reads to me as a solid candidate for BP Munitions Traitor. 981 I have trouble Town reading due to the multiple Town BP flips and the fact that no-one seemed to pay attention to his not having a followup shot. If there is a missing Nightkill tonight I would completely suggest he was recruited. 969 looks like a “Jungle Town” tell attempt and I really can’t see Town who posted all these players in 1000 he had lots of experience with then saying he had trouble getting reads. 373 is a bit of Cogdis and thus triggers me as well. And I see 1154 as scum motivated posting.

Davsto rounds out my mid scum reads. Despite his insistence that he had good reasons for scum reading Mom there is way too much focus on a single slot for my tastes from him. I see links to Taly at 729 and 964. I think 1058 is more likely to come from a scum perspective than Town (although it could be Town) and dislike how he’s arguing both sides of the same coin by saying “Mom was scummy for having a bad case on me” and “Just because I was wrong doesn’t mean I’m scum”. 1148 to me points to him being Munitions IF Winged is Town.

That leaves Stefan and TheBrie in my “Null” pile. Not enough seen indicative of alignment to me on either side of the coin by the end of Day 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And here's my current post Day 1 score-card ...

Town - Vax, Lovebird, Ausuka, Light and Gamma
Null - Stefan and

TheBrie

Weak Scum - The Worst, Winged, Austerity, Davsto
Strong Scum - Theta,

Tora

,

Taly

[Eddie Cane]

I mean magna half the living players were xcum

[Taly]

Lol aww, I'm considered strong scum even in the dead thread.