Newbie 1867 - Game Over

[northsidegal]

there's never ever been a situation where i've accepted my lynch as town. i doubt there ever will be.

i seem to be running into this sort of scenario pretty frequently lately, which is strange.

[vulcan logician]

There is a difference between being resistant to the idea of your own lynch and being single mindedly opposed to being lynched without regard to any other game factors.

there's never ever been a situation where i've accepted my lynch as town. i doubt there ever will be.

i seem to be running into this sort of scenario pretty frequently lately, which is strange.

There is a difference between being resistant to the idea of your own lynch and being single mindedly opposed to being lynched without regard to any other game factors.

[vulcan logician]

@Nacho You see why I said town should lynch you, right? You would most likely go after nsg anyway. Your game is hard to read. It's very null. If nsg survives (and she is scum) she will be stuck confirming one player as town which will help people's PoE a lot and make her job very difficult. I think nsg is scum. But if we're gonna lynch anyone besides her, I think it should be you.

I'm still down for lynching nsg today too. I don't mean to take that off the table. I'm just exploring options that might make D4 easier.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm sorry for holding the game hostage; meant to get some posting in yesterday but instead fell asleep in the middle of a conversation. I will post everything that I intend to post by tonight, will start posting shortly.

[Nachomamma8]

First, I'd like to expand on why I think that Rampage's reaction to NSG is town as shit:

I think we need to wait for everyone to check in. If no one counters the claim, then we have to proceed as if NSG and VT are town, which leaves Scioness, Nachomamma, and me to choose from. I am leaning towards Scioness myself. I had a gut feeling about them, but I know I am vanilla. So in my eyes it is down to Nacho and Scioness. However, with us being in a situation where we mislynch today and tomorrow and lose, this becomes a rough state of affairs. I would almost prefer to be the lynch as it takes me off the table and the remaining 2 town can make their own reads as NSG will die tonight, but at the same time, I am hopeful I can convince Vulcan that I am town as well.

If Rampage is scum here, then he's feeling a bit hot under the collar, which means he'd be eager to pass the pressure off on anyone else. Enter NSG wagon, where there are multiple people saying that they want to vote NSG, but also want to wait for people to talk first. As a result, I think Rampage would be fairly reluctant to let go of the possibility of an NSG push as scum, meaning that even if he thought that NSG would be cleared by claim, he'd shut up after seeing the IC vote her anyways just to confirm/deny his suspicions.

[Nachomamma8]

i mean dead trcker nsg clears you but i think you would be holding hammer anyways tomorrow so

Vulcan Logician is cleared regardless of what NSG is. Either she's telling the truth and he's town as a result, or she's the last scum and Vulcan is town by virtue of not being her.

[Nachomamma8]

The fact that nsg thought Rampage "has to be lynched" today only further validates my suspicions.

From NSG's perspective as a town tracker, she has three reasonable options to track: 1) Rampage, a player who she suspects pretty strongly and believes needs to be resolved before LyLo. 2) Me, a player she has no real idea how to read but believes could be a significant threat. 3) You, a player she's null reading and had a weird gut reaction to one thing.

I think that choosing 1 or 2 is reasonable - either she clears the largest mislynch target for the next day or she clears the player she believes will be the hardest to read, but instead she makes the worst possible choice for town and most convenient for scum and uses a wiki article that suggests investigating nulls to justify it. I don't believe that's how NSG the town tracker approaches last night for a second.

[Scioness Sajj]

I won't hammer.

2 isn't a question and as to 1... I can't recall. Where are you going with this?

was thinking about people's reads throughout the game and some pieces were missing.

[Scioness Sajj]

I agree with Scioness, we need to talk through who should be responsible with the hammer in the case that we are wrong. For me, I am leaning Scioness if it comes to it.

ugh
i'm not particulary fond of a situation when i first mislynch nsg and have 50/50 chance of losing the game

[Scioness Sajj]

If anyone else has something to say, say it now.

Intent to hammer nsg

um.

what happened to not rushing through this?

No one can trust your tracker claim, nsg. And because of that,

it's next to useless

. The only use that can be found I posted above.

Why are you the scummy side of null? Your claim has bad timing, and your tracker target didn't make sense.

i think you are missing nsg's point about her clearing a person tomorrow. assuming you and Nacho die today we have nsg, me and rampage.

town!nsg has a result for example guilty on rampage, then she crosses with rampage and i hold the hammer because i'm cleared.
scum!nsg just picks whoever she wants to hold the hammer tomorrow.

[Nachomamma8]

i also think lynching me today is suboptimal just from a setup standpoint given that it means we always go into lylo without any conftown whereas even if you think i'm scum me being alive yesterday means it will be a guaranteed 50/50

I don't understand any of the arguments for keeping you alive just so there can be a conftown tomorrow in LyLo. 1) If you are town, then finding the last remaining scum after you actually flip town and we're forced to reevaluate will be much, much more productive than lynching someone we don't actually think is scum (because you are our top suspect) and then trying to view tomorrow objectively. If you are town and we lynch elsewhere today, it should be because you confirm yourself as town, not because it's "optimal play" to lynch elsewhere.

[Nachomamma8]

for rampage i've been scumreading him since day one

and, again. you have someone you've been scumreading since day 1. and you don't think for a second "hey, I can end the game here!" and investigate them?

[Nachomamma8]

and i feel like we haven't yet talked about the N1 track target also being fucked:

given rampage's VT soft right there i think that actually makes him the optimal lynch over ircher (assuming ircher hasn't claimed somewhere before and i've just missed it)

VOTE: rampage

you note that rampage softed VT D1, meaning that seeing him go anywhere would have been a guaranteed guilty and you wouldn't have had to worry about accidentally outing the cop. tracking him here would have been a very smart and a very reasonable move, but instead, you track... nancy. who also

just happens

to be 1 of 2 people you could have tracked without confirming anyone else, which, again, just so happens to be the most convenient route for you to take as scum.

[Scioness Sajj]

oops, skipped scioness.

i don't remember you posting anything game related really. you really didn't post enough for me or anybody to sort you.
i will read 714 and let you know what i think.

if it's just a "not posting enough" thing, then like i said - let's not rush through this. i know that i'm town, and i'm confident i can make that clear to everyone as well.

activity isn't something that i'd see as ai considering our game history. the problem is that when you were posting you didn't have anything insightful to say.
i have skimmed 714 but i feel like only similarities are lack of activity in both games and that's not the thing.

[Nachomamma8]

doesn't it make more sense to fake an innocent on you, rampage, and try to start out with a paranoia lynch on nacho?

........what?

no, it doesn't make more sense to fake an innocent on the person who almost got lynched yesterday and instead fake a guilty on the IC. in fact, that doesn't make any sense at all.

[Nachomamma8]

The think about Nacho's play that bothers me is that it is a carbon copy of my scumgame. I am a "truth-telling" scum. I try to keep lies to a minimum. I say things like "Such and such is dodging the questions being asked " or "Isn't it quite odd that this person hasn't spoken all day cycle then, ten minutes after someone accused them of lurking they make a post?" I say things that are true. I notice shady behavior and I talk about it. I usually "have my doubts" about somebody too. I pretend to tunnel them. It's usually someone that others read as null. If this is Nacho's scumgame, he and I use the same playbook. If it isn't then I'm just projecting.

I believe that it's a waste to try to hide in truth as scum; as scum, your greatest asset is the ability to lie and manipulate, and by trying to stay honest you're stripping yourself of your strongest and most entertaining tools for no good reason.

However, if you believe that someone is playing a conservative scumgame, the best way to judge them is by focusing hard on places where they have to lie (so if you're looking at me, you look at my push on NSG, which needs to be completely made up), and by looking at their game as a whole (how has their play benefitted the scumteam as a whole? does it look like they have a way to win the game?).

[Scioness Sajj]

@Nacho You see why I said town should lynch you, right? You would most likely go after nsg anyway. Your game is hard to read. It's very null. If nsg survives (and she is scum) she will be stuck confirming one player as town which will help people's PoE a lot and make her job very difficult. I think nsg is scum. But if we're gonna lynch anyone besides her, I think it should be you.

I'm still down for lynching nsg today too. I don't mean to take that off the table. I'm just exploring options that might make D4 easier.

if you are scumreading nsg that's probably where you should be voting.
unless you trust that i or rampage will make a right decision in lylo.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho You see why I said town should lynch you, right? You would most likely go after nsg anyway. Your game is hard to read. It's very null. If nsg survives (and she is scum) she will be stuck confirming one player as town which will help people's PoE a lot and make her job very difficult. I think nsg is scum. But if we're gonna lynch anyone besides her, I think it should be you.

I'm still down for lynching nsg today too. I don't mean to take that off the table. I'm just exploring options that might make D4 easier.

i think that i'm the best paranoia lynch, sure.
i also think that paranoia lynches are really really really really dumb, especially in a scenario where you have a strong scum suspect.

[Nachomamma8]

and, a gripe:

and, as i've already said - i'm waiting to see how nacho re-enters the thread. it's unfair to say that i'm unconcerned with finding scum when i've already said that i don't want to rush and specifically have said what i'm waiting to analyze.

like, nacho has said a lot about how my ISO this game makes me scum but i don't think he's ever gone into real specifics, and i don't think he's factored in me being a PR into his thoughts?

i'm waiting to see what he says when he comes back, myself.

nsg is kind of on the scummy side of null. This sucks because I have no clear reads at this point. Let me jot some more thoughts down about nsg and why I think she's the best lynch. Stay tuned.

can you go more into your read on me? why am i on the scummy side of null for you?

i'm getting sort of impatient and since we are waiting for nsg if anybody wants to talk out reads and stuff in case nsg is a tracker and we are going into d4 im here

i don't like how you have me as the "default" lynch here.

why do you think i'm scum in the first place? i think most of my low-key play this game is attributable to me being a PR - see open 714 for a similar game here.

i also think lynching me today is suboptimal just from a setup standpoint given that it means we always go into lylo without any conftown whereas even if you think i'm scum me being alive yesterday means it will be a guaranteed 50/50

NSG is remarkably close to death (L-1 with intent to hammer already claimed). She is asking the town not to rush. But instead of trying to get her suspicions down in thread and prove why she is town, she's asking everyone else why they think she is scum. Whenever you are town and you are close to death, it's your responsibility to get all of your suspicions and paranoid thoughts out as quickly as possible; every moment you have once someone claims intent to hammer is precious and the longer you wait, the smaller chance you have of making an impact before you shuffle off this mortal coil.

[Scioness Sajj]

Nacho, have you considered what we are going to do if nsg flips town?

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho, have you considered what we are going to do if nsg flips town?

Nope. I expect I'll feel fucking terrible for about 48 hours, then there will be a lot of rereading and apologizing and spam posting and drinking, and then I'll vote incorrectly and probably lose the game?

[Nachomamma8]

But, as of this moment, there isn't really a serious alternative to NSG in my mind. She has a fakeclaim that is either the unluckiest stroke of luck a tracker has ever had in that all of her investigations line up perfectly for what scum would do and needs to do (twice investigating someone she hadn't mentioned at all or seemed to think about at all on previous days, once investigating a dead person who actually looked super fucking town), she has ties to flip scum, and I'm independently townreading you and Rampage at >80% town levels.

How am I supposed to consider what we do here if NSG flips town when all signs point to that not happening?

[Nachomamma8]

Where is your hesitation coming from here? Why do you think NSG might be town here? Who is your alternative pick for scum?

[Scioness Sajj]

that's not exactly reassuring

i don't know it seems very unlikely but not impossible? i have just crawled out of rabbit hole of all the things that can go wrong.

[Scioness Sajj]

Where is your hesitation coming from here? Why do you think NSG might be town here? Who is your alternative pick for scum?

i don't trust myself to:
1. correctly read nsg
2. hammer right in lylo
3. not get mislocated

this isn't a case of scumreading somebody strong enough to doubt nsg scum but me but me thinking what if. you and rampage are 50/50