NY 213 - Game Over!

[davesaz]

Hopkirk, what does group A / group B mean?

[Pine]

yawn

[davesaz]

I didn’t notice Srceenplay I just saw someone point out he’s site flaking

Where did you see that?

I think Vax is town Vax replaced Srceenplay right

What's your Vax and Performer reads?

He’s my dad

You replied to the where you found out Screen was going to flake.
The more important question was your Vax and Performer reads.
Actually I'd settle for your reads on anyone.

[davesaz]

@dave lt looked like etl was reaching when he said tex was defending me and deflecting. I need to re ISO etl if he's saying my case is fake. I don't know what you mean about the depiction of my 623. I said he's reaching, I don't remember him responding to that.

Had there been any followups from you between those points?

[Hopkirk]

Hopkirk, what does group A / group B mean?

You can read it is strong/weak town, but I didn't feel the phrasing it fit super well since it's not in order and there's people who could go in either/potentially down to neutral.
The intent is a lynchpool more than a reads list, but it's still a reads list for most intents and purposes.

[Hopkirk]

Also why the bottom group is a POE pool rather than 'scum'. I'm almost definitely townreading scums.

[Hopkirk]

Rampage's iso is hilariously ironic.

194- Attacks Creature for popping in and saying why he's been inactive. Rampage thinks town Creature would give some thoughts rather than just say he has a busy schedule.
509- (three days later)- Rampage pops in and says why he's been inactive. Rampage has a busy schedule but doesn't give any thoughts.
@Rampage: In hindsight, do you think the tell you had is legitimately something that applies to scum?

681 is very meh. The only thing that stood out being the easiest vote/lynch. Really, the second half of 681 applies to 681.

[Ausuka]

I'm neighbours with Performer and wavemode. I'm confident wave is scum and once we lynch him and he flips red me and performer can function as masons.

[Gamma Emerald]

Spoiler:

osuka - how he has at least 4/6 of 769 to be scum, is a mighty big # of scum out of those 6 - that doesn’t seem probable.
In terms of working together as town, I was asking folks to form a substantial wagon by half day at latest - it's one of the guidelines I use to scumhunt. An alternative as we've all seen before, is trying to get only 1 wagon near day's end, the person suddenly tells us they're a pr, then we're left scrambling for another wagon. Yes, we still have some time left but rushing at the deadline is a bad idea.
Your 745 made me think you were likelier town though, with your 751 question to tex looking like you're trying to stay invested in figuring out thought process, along with your brief interaction with ausuka on pg 30.

Hop seemed town based on my ISO of him. His 692 was about gamma seeming scummy

ausuka at first I thought ausuka was scummy, then tr for her interaction on pg 18 of what I thought at the time was openness & honesty, now I put her at null because she speculated about traitor talk, literally no one else brought it up before that. On the other hand, she could have a point about a50 instead being the traitor, but that could be worked out later in the game. I found it really odd she had dunn & mylon as tr.
Fairly confident in ausuka's meta read of me. She's moderated me when I was pr, we've played scum together (I think in my 2nd game onsite, it was terrible), I was town & she was scum in another game, and we probably played in a few more. Good to see another familiar face, how have things been?

a50 for the tone of his posts & how he touched on helping protect prs. Huge fan of that, always a believer in protecting our prs. He had sr on gamma & osuka, had tr on ausuka.

Jar due to 453. Tr me because he had meta with me, ever since my first game onsite over 2 years ago.

Golden due to my 452. Had sr on screenplay & I would've too, if I replaced into another slot

Pine - tone of his posts & called out osuka for being LAMIST

Texcat - the way she’s been scumhunting in her ISO, like her 541 about arcangel being an sr, and her follow-up to arcangel not answering her questioning.

Khan - proactively progressing things, noted the awfully random traitor talk on pg 6. Had a50, rampage, me as scum on pg 31 in his reply to osuka - which was strange and possibly scummy, so I put khan as null because he posted an unexplained associative of us 3. Pg 34 interaction between khan & ausuka – made me move khan to tr. The inquiring of a sudden tr from ausuka to osuka, was one of the telling things in that interaction.

Null:

Gamma - strongly agreed with gamma's stance on vax, as well as his clear & concise reasoning, proactive approach, and lines of inquiry - such as against golden for defending edosurist. I could see gamma's posts coming from town. He had wheme as tr but he wasn't sure why, which was a red flag. Could see scum making that up as a deflection topic.
Later during osuka’s wagon analysis - picked me of all the people osuka was analyzing on his wagon - looked like scum targeting. He was the only one who picked me out of osuka’s wagon analysis, and he was the only one who asked me why I did a reaction test against wheme. All of that made me move my tr of him to null.

Dunn never replied about his sr on me, despite it being on my opening post. He's a traditionally hard slot to read. Just a bare poster on d1, and if it wasn't for him thinking I was scummy, I would've added him to the "fine with lynching" pool of lurkers today.

fumu/lovebird/dave - hard to get a read on this slot. Need to see more from this slot

scioness - kept defending creature before pg 16. Voted one of my null slots (ausuka) at the time

Creature naked voted me (suspicious without explanation), stayed active with his one-line posts (good sign). Later he just randomly votes mylon of all people. Later naked voted me again. Added to my sr for fishy sequence of unexplained events

rampage - I do agree with his post 100 talk about lynching lurkers. But his 509 looked very odd for unvoting creature simply since he "took up an entire page." That just makes no sense from town, it looks like a manufactured reason. The rest of the ISO just looked too bare to be town, seemed like coasting scum. He said he would catch up, then posted about being unable to catch up, didn’t say anything about his reads (sr or tr), even did an unneeded claim - in other games, I’ve seen folks do a claim like that with no good reason, later they turned out scum. By this point of the game, he should’ve put up something more than what he's put up.

Etl voted me for my opening post, said it was lamist. See my 623 for further sorting of him. Had sr on jar, me, rampage. gamma & wheme were his tr. I called him out for one of my posts, and he didn't reply about it - looked scummy, like he's brushing it off and just in some death tunnel. All he’s done is keep his vote on me ever since I came in, which makes him even fishier.

Arcangel - see texcat read for more on my read on arcangel. Also, arcangel voted texcat first, and voted her again in that 604 post. Since we’re nearing the half-day mark, the series of posts from arcangel does not make me tr her. Also in the area of possible lurking scum

wavemode naked voted osuka, voted texcat (my tr), voted the charles slot due to him asking a game setup question (scummy reason to vote someone), did a prodge post, continued lurking, popped up to vote osuka after osuka’s wagon analysis. Definitely suspect line of actions from wavemode, can’t see that coming from town.

vax kept defending creature before pg 16. Later made what looked like an opportunistic vote on scioness, while scioness voted ausuka. Definitely on sr due to his ISO.

flavor - after half day, still hasn’t voted anyone - lurk central. Self meta post looked like a fluff post - how does that help anyone who hasn't played with you, tr you? Also, see my 959 for elaboration

wheme, mylon - for lurking and/or low content (fluff). As I stated in my opening post, it’s not wise to let folks like that slide by (handing them a free pass). On a related note, fairly certain at least 1 of scum is lurking in some way. Also, they made plenty of bare posts that had no elaboration.

idk about a couple of your reads
Creature, even beyond his typical activity readability, has made a couple comments that seem pretty likely to come from him as town. I think he's definitively town.
As for the read on me I don't see what you mean about my read on wheme? I also checked what you meant by me picking you out and that wasn't me just selecting a name; he actually seemed to be hardlining for you, and it felt a little strange to me. And I didn't ask you "why did you reaction test", I asked what you were doing. That's not very fair criticizing me for asking about something I wasn't aware of until you pointed it out.
Your logic on A50 was actually something I overlooked from him (the PR thing), that solidifies my townread on him. Can't really explain why unless he gives me permission, cos the reasoning involves outing one of his alts.
I think you're putting the cart before the horse on a couple of meta reads. Just because their reason to read you how they are is good doesn't mean they're town, they could get the same data as scum. I prefer looking at it in the sense of them actually paying attention for certain things meaning they're town, cos they are proving they need to sort you. This is why the comments Creature has made help me townread him, because they make a lot of sense for him to ask based on his meta with the people he's asking about.

[Ausuka]

People are way too distracted by how shiny and lynchbaity Performer is. This is normal imo and it doesn't make him scum. Wavemode on the other hand is lurking intentionally and making horrible votes. As I've said pretty confident this reds and that's huge +EV because it means people can't go after Performer anymore.

[Ausuka]

Wavemode and FL are very likely two of the scum; FL made a horrible meta defence post on wave earlier. I think Rampage is a third, {KK/Jar} fourth, maybe android and texcat for the last two. But we should start with wave imo.

[Gamma Emerald]

Does Wave ever flip town here.

Why is this getting brought up? Wave hasn't been much of a discussion topic up to this point.

@Performer offtopic: Wheme/Screen are son/dad f I remember right.
@Performer ontopic: how much of your recent reads were based on stuff you were thinking but hadn’t written, and how much was based on reisoing?

Oh shoot they're father and son? Then one of my notes is near concrete now.

Group A: Almost 50, Ousuka, Creature, Pine, Dunn, KK
Group B: Mylo, Gamma, Robster, ETL, Wheme, Scion, JJD
Neutralish. Wouldn’t vote.: Lal, LB/Dave, Flavour Leaf, Ausuka
Need to reread pool: Vax/Arc/Performer/Android/Wave/Texcat/TheRampage

Group a and b mean?

[Kublai Khan]

Hi guys, sorry I have to be away for a bit. But I'll be back in no time .

V/LA 26th Tuesday 7pm to 27th Friday 8am AEST

Oh, noooo.. What could this game possibly be like without a strong Myloninja13 presence?

[Hopkirk]

@Gamma: see 1004 for A/B.
Why does wave not being bought up before matter?

[davesaz]

Heh, iso'd wave and yeah that's likely to be scum.
VOTE: Wavemode

[wavemode]

do what you want, I'm just a town neighbor

it's like i said, no matter who you lynch today it's gonna be wrong

let's get this over with

[Hopkirk]

Given neighbors can be mafia, who are you with?
3p is like 90% including mafia. 4+ I assume is even more likely. Mafia would also know these people are neigbors given daytalk and no third parties.
2p seems odd/improbable in a 25p game.

[Ausuka]

I'm neighbours with Performer and wavemode.

[Hopkirk]

I missed that.
Lets get more votes.

[Hopkirk]

Why didn't you push Wave when you were townreading Performer?

[Ausuka]

Why didn't you push Wave when you were townreading Performer?

neighbourhoods are NAI. I'm not scumreading wave because I'm in a hood with him and a townread, I scumread him based on play.

[davesaz]

@wave, you seriously got nothing at page 41 and you're only keeping up to the point you don't get replaced? Because that's what the scumread comes from.

[Hopkirk]

I just finished a game with a 3p neighbourhood. I think someone said there's scum in over 90%, hang on.

[Ausuka]

I could be wrong but like I think there's plenty of potential for 3 town neighbourhood in a 25p game.

As a sidenote it's probably mechanically optimal to lynch in {rampage, wavemode} because they've both claimed VT. (completely unprovoked)

[Hopkirk]

I am a town neighbor.
Shoshin and brawl are both in my hood.

Then one of Screen and Shoshin and Brawl are probably scum, a 3 town neighborhood is probably unlikely?

8% of three town neighborhoods have been all town based on previous setups.

Likely one scum in the hood.

I checked post game, only looking at mini normals, and most contained 1 mafia. Not 100% where the 8% came from though.
Idk about large. Looking at the stats would probably be worthwhile.

Performer actually looks like he's been trying to sort your neighbourhood which is really good if Wave flips scum.

Anything from Wave in the neighbourhood at all? Worth summarising what he's said there, preferably with (paraphrased) timings.