Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[brassherald]

"Either write something worth reading or do something worth writing."

Votecount 1.15

Gamma Emerald(5)

~ Mathdino, Bernie Sanders, Shoshin, Not_Mafia, Gustavo

Bernie Sanders(3)

~ Keyser Söze, Irrelephant11, Momrangal

Momrangal(2)

~ skitter30, Nauci

Nauci(1)

~ the worst

Gustavo(1)

~ Gamma Emerald


Not Voting (1): Errantparabola

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-04 17:10:00)

I've decided to remove the post count from the vote counts and just do the rest of them by hand since I keep messing up the settings. Please always tell me if I miss a vote or make a mistake

[Gustavo]

At least the name links to the vote. Thanks.

[Errantparabola]

Resuming my skim.

Town or vague town or at least one concrete reason for town: the worst, Irre, Nauci, Shoshin, Bernie, Keyser --> especially Keyser, it's been refreshing to see me think something and then later on see Keyser post it.
the rest range from null to conflicted.

I think there's definitely something scummy about how skitter dances around her scumreads but I think it's in line with what i've seen from her, playstyle wise. More on this if necessary but that's where I'm at there.

549 is a pretty bad post from Momrangal.
Nauci's list in 674 is definitely not great and I think there's a good chance its fabricated and the towniest part is her self-meta section

828 is a towny replace out let's face it.

Okay, who the hell is Nauci and why is she the greatest player to grace mafiascum? Arguments are cogent beyond belief. Actually, extend that to a lot of players in this game. In my limited experiences, the 2018 crowd has been really great, I'd play mafia regularly with this crowd. That being said: my read on Nauci: ehhhhhhhh.

You showed an unwillingness to work with me. After reading your posts I no longer believe you are town. I won’t work with scum.

From a probabilistic perspective, scum says this more often than town I think, in the weighted sense
1048 is also bad

Gustavo I'd just solely read on the basis of stungun who I highly doubt could've had anything near that level of thought in his scumrange as a newbie

this is a towny read to have

EP, what's your position on Gamma and why?

Back when I said I'd shoot him it was null but so were pretty much all the other people in that gang.
Now it's null but only because I skimmed too fast to process anything he said
Seeing as it's the big wagon I'll take a peek at him later.

Irrelephant, I didn't think that post was that townie, it felt like the sort of thing scum who knows you're town would read it.

That's fair but also generally the only value I provide to the game. I'll be the first to admit that I'm a trash scumhunter. My last legimitate scumread was all the way back during Team Mafia, on Katyusha (I was wrong). I like to think I punch far above random on correctness in regards to my strong townreads, that's where I look.

why on 171? i don't think that's a particularly townie post tbh. it's like nai to me.

Reads strongly like a good and genuine application of towny criticism as well as mirrored my thoughts at the time.
"Hot take:" --> the dude is like "hell no, you guys are wrong and I'm really feeling the inclination to tell you why."
(also it's not like the competition for towniness was that strong at that time)

[Errantparabola]

I'm really pumped to start playing this game in earnest, actually. Everyone seems to have a good sense for things here.

Roughly speaking, my reads fall like so:

Town:
Keyser, Bernie, Irre are varying degrees of town.
throw in the worst and Gustavo as hail-mary going out on a limb town.
Shoshin and Nauci are town with specific grains of salt.

The rest:
Dino, Gamma, Notmaf, Mom, skitter.

More reading to come later but bye for now!

[Nauci]

I'm saying your logic is wrong. Multiple people have objected to your reasoning and you haven't taken any of it in.

This still implies I’m town.

I’m not taking it in because those people aren’t really looking at his actions. They are biased because they already town read him and they refuse to consider a new perspective.

Nobody has explained why town sho would lie like he did, why town sho would refuse to answer me, or even why town show would accuse others of misrepping when he is guilty of it himself.

So since nobody can do that, their opinions don’t really hold any weight.

This is basically multiple cases of conf.bias.

IDK. I feel like I internally put forth a real shake on the scumshin idea, and it just didn't hold water under scrutiny. I'm a pretty paranoid person so it's rare for me to actually have as many town reads as I do this game. I'll be sure to do another careful ISO towards the end of day 1 but seems like a waste to focus on one of the most substantive slots that we already have so much data for.

A lot more engagement how? If I need to be more engaged, what the fuck do you want from me? If others need to be more engaged with me that's placing the burden of removing the scumread on other people which isn't fair to me because regardless of what I do if no one else does what you want "oh no one is engaging with him, SCUM!!!!"

Oh dear lord.

*FEELS INTENSFIES*

has Gamma finally cracked?

I mean in a sense yeah? I'm not very happy with the standard Nauci seems to be judging me from.

I'm having a really hard time understanding this bit.

Are you angry that I have a high bar for town reading someone? Or just that I applied that bar to you? I mean I evaluate what there is to evaluate and it's nothing personal if I don't think your contributions deserve a town clear, and I'm not posting my reads of you like some angry command to DANCE MONKEY, DANCE UNTIL I PERSONALLY DEEM IT A SUFFICIENT PERFORMANCE.

I'll town read you if I see posts with town motivation, and defensive posts are at best NAI...

[Gustavo]

IDK. I feel like I internally put forth a real shake on the scumshin idea, and it just didn't hold water under scrutiny

Weren’t you upset that sho answered questions before somebody else could answer them and was stepping all over your ability to scum hunt? those aren’t things town typically do so I feel you should at least have a low grade scum read on her but it doesn’t seem you do if you’re defending her.

[Gustavo]

From a probabilistic perspective, scum says this more often than town I think, in the weighted sense
1048 is also bad

1. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen scum say that. Town need people to work together scum doesn’t.
2. I don’t understand how that post could be perceived as bad if you understand how wagon analysis works but ok...

[brassherald]

Votes have not changed since last night and new page has not been reached, no VC this morning.

[Gustavo]

Let’s lynch Gamma and end this day already

[Irrelephant11]

I would like at least a couple more Mathdino/the worst thoughts and words before we lynch anyone
Also where is Bernie to respond to votes
Also Gamma if you’re town now’s your chance to help, share as many thoughts as you can on as many people as you can before getting lynched please and thanns

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm gonna need you to demonstrate how what she has said about her meta is a lie.

Did that already. She said she doesn’t give reasons or whatever (can’t remember the exact phrase) but most of her votes has reason. She said I should know based off her meta she doesn’t do this but her meta showed she did.

That’s a lie. A straight up, bold faced lie

She said she doesn't give reasons SOMETIMES. Holy hell, I would think that would be the intuitive conclusion, given never explaining your votes is a good way to not be trusted. I guess I can understand a little though.

[Irrelephant11]

Irrelephant, I didn't think that post was that townie, it felt like the sort of thing scum who knows you're town would read it. I didn't like EP's post, felt scummy to me.

why?

[Gamma Emerald]

Doing my questioning:

Bernie:

why should clownspiracy make you asking deflecting-type questions not something I should be wary of?

Not_Mafia:

is there anyone you think has been getting less attention than they should?

Errant:

What do your reads look like, and is there anything you think most people missed that is informing them?

Momrangal:

What do you think of {mathdino, tw, nm}, especially compared to other times you've seen them? In addition, are there any people you'd like me to reconsider my read on?

[Gamma Emerald]

You should vote who you think is scum mate. Not who you think i’m bussing. I may be wrong about BS.

I.e if I flip scum, then look at my associations.

Possible point on Irrelephant? Not sure about the current practical strength but I have a personal theory that people voting weird places based on associations have a decent chance of flipping scum

[Gamma Emerald]

@Gamma - what do you think my read of you should be right now, based on my above opinions of your play so far?

this is a really weird question

I wanted him to realise how much of a lynchbait-type persona he’d become in my eyes.

However, he ended up scum reading me for my observations of him... so not the desired effect

Not

exactly

. I thought your observations were poor, yes. But it wasn't enough for me to think you were scum. I must've missed you responding to that btw.

[Gamma Emerald]

I understand why you read my words in that manner, but I'd like to clarify that "more engagement" meant literally just more words/posts. I haven't seen enough posts to really get a feel on what your thought processes or emotions or whatever else are like, and I generally read people by what I feel like their point of view/thought processes may have been. I have seen a bit that could be scummy, and I haven't seen enough that feels very town to me to change that evaluation much. I just need more content from you, regardless of what you comment on or who interacts with you.

Do you *need* someone to prod you in order to post? Why not just comment on the relatively dramatic events thus far? It's not like our arguments are a VIP only party and you're not invited.

So basically you just needed more from me? Why don't you have enough yet? I actually decided to ramp up my activity to get you to maybe show some development here and the fact you're not gives me some Regardless Of vibes.

[Gamma Emerald]

@Nauci I never asked about scum!irrelephant?
And how am I your other top pick based on that logic?

You asked me how the Gustavo interactions helped my reads, so I explained the two reads that I now have more data points for because of his interactions

You are the other poster who is currently active and needs a lot more engagement to swing my scum vibe, versus nsg/tw/etc.

I have no idea how to even get nm to converse so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

A lot more engagement how? If I need to be more engaged, what the fuck do you want from me? If others need to be more engaged with me that's placing the burden of removing the scumread on other people which isn't fair to me because regardless of what I do if no one else does what you want "oh no one is engaging with him, SCUM!!!!"

Before I finish my catch up I just keep mentally going back to posts like these

So much of your content was fluff (Bernie speculation, "I don't feel like posting" posts, posts like these, etc.). I FOS you for the exact same reasons that I did back in page 5, just a little less because there's *some* engagement on the board.

But this reaction to my read of you just strikes me as strange and I don't have time to meta-dive you to figure out what it means for your alignment.

I'm reacting this way because your read just doesn't feel like it's developing in any meaningful way despite me feeling like there's reason for it to. Even if your read didn't change I would have expected something along the lines of "yes he's posting but it feels manufactured". I do actually get a bit of that in this post though.

[Gamma Emerald]

Let’s lynch Gamma and end this day already

How about let's not just yet
the fact that the game suddenly stalled is really fucking questionable

[Irrelephant11]

That’s actually v true

I’m guessing at least two if not all three scum are in {Gamma, Bernie, people voting for Gamma or Bernie}

Otherwise they could easily be pushing one lynch or the other
Kind of like Gustavo seems to be doing?
Really can’t read Gustavo

[Gamma Emerald]

Doing quick activity checks to determine if anyone could be scum due to the stall
Mathdino hasn't posted since posting here
Bernie hasn't even posted on his main and has also declared a v/la on his main
Not_Mafia has DEFINITELY been active elsewhere, thinking this might actually be mafia
the worst has been active elsewhere, plus despite being bored at one point has not tried to engage since then, probably scum
Shoshin has been very active in one other game, this might be passable but still sketchy
skitter hasn't been active elsewhere, same for momrangal and keyser
EP's kinda been active elsewhere, but it's sprinkled in so I don't think it's scummy
Nauci hasn't been active elsewhere
everyone else has posted since brassherald last posted so not going to deal with them
VOTE: the worst
Still definitely want to keep talking with Gustavo but he's actually provided signs that he's not bsing so I don't like the vote as much, and given the compilation of things against the worst I think he's the best vote rn

[Errantparabola]

From a probabilistic perspective, scum says this more often than town I think, in the weighted sense
1048 is also bad

1. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen scum say that. Town need people to work together scum doesn’t.
2. I don’t understand how that post could be perceived as bad if you understand how wagon analysis works but ok...

Keep in mind I think you're tending towards town due to your predecessor, and rereading I'll take back what I said regarding the post about you not working with scum. I still didn't like the way it felt like you were tooting your own horn about your strong entrance

Errant:

What do your reads look like, and is there anything you think most people missed that is informing them?

Basically most of the points I think are salient are in my posts, as are my reads? What was your intention with that question

[Gamma Emerald]

From a probabilistic perspective, scum says this more often than town I think, in the weighted sense
1048 is also bad

1. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen scum say that. Town need people to work together scum doesn’t.
2. I don’t understand how that post could be perceived as bad if you understand how wagon analysis works but ok...

Keep in mind I think you're tending towards town due to your predecessor, and rereading I'll take back what I said regarding the post about you not working with scum. I still didn't like the way it felt like you were tooting your own horn about your strong entrance

Errant:

What do your reads look like, and is there anything you think most people missed that is informing them?

Basically most of the points I think are salient are in my posts, as are my reads? What was your intention with that question

I figured since you're the freshest person here I should ask you what you thought might have been missed

[Momrangal]

What do you think of {mathdino, tw, nm}, especially compared to other times you've seen them? In addition, are there any people you'd like me to reconsider my read on?

Duck.

Also, NM posted like, once? I feel like I remember him posting alot more as town and I expected him to make a bigger entrance here now that you've brought him up.

I actually townread math which IDK how to really take considering I usually scumread him regardless of his alignment. Objectively speaking, though and in a vacuum everything he's done is straight null alignment wise. Nothing he's done is outside his range of play as scum but I have a gut feeling that he isn't here, and it may be his progression.

Duck, I've stated my thoughts on him multiple times, and I am not really seeing the lack of spirit that everyone else seems to see. I don't think he's played like he did when he was scum though this fade is a little weird, but I think it's entirely plausible that this game may have slipped his mind. I also see him as town based off something that I don't really want to talk about

[Gustavo]

Still definitely want to keep talking with Gustavo

About what? I’m here.

[the worst]

Hey the worst, any thoughts on Errant?

there's a very specific reason I'm not talking about the NSGslot much here

EP's contribution... his catchup was kinda ok but felt largely consensusey. I'd be kinda curious to see his reason for townreading me but temporarily willing to put that down to being psychic until further notice
there's really nothing there that I find particularly alignment-telling, just kinda obligatory. maybe +1% scum equity for feeling safe/survivalitic but not going there yet