Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[skitter30]

regarding what? that you're town or the gamma/shoshin thing? i really want gustavo to answer the latter question

[the worst]

well I was meaning gamma/shoshin but obviously I mean both

[Nauci]

At a glance, I find the lack of counter wagon possibly disturbing... I also don't want to vote w/ Not_Mafia. Not one bit.

@Everyone on the Gamma wagon:

Who else would you vote if it wasn't Gamma?

[the worst]

why do you not want to vote with NM?

gut says maybe you rn?

[Shoshin]

it was 1146; it exhibits a level of nuance that i think usually doesn't coem from scum.

What's the nuance that doesn't come from scum?

[skitter30]

actually i reconsider my take on the lack of opposition to the gamma thing; nauci, if gamma ever flips scum that's a gross post and you're my first bet for a partner

specifically i'm considered that the first time you brought up this take is *after* i made a thing about it, and that you've been pushing the gamma and/or his wagon for a while now despite not joining it

like how do you just now decide 'at a glance i find the lack of a counter wagon' possibly disturbing; you literally just had a thing about people's voting patterns, and nm has been on the wagon for like three irl days now.

[skitter30]

like the timing of that take is incredibly suspicious given your trajectory thus far

[skitter30]

it was 1146; it exhibits a level of nuance that i think usually doesn't coem from scum.

What's the nuance that doesn't come from scum?

i meant that nuance of that level doesn't usually come from scum in my experience

[Shoshin]

it was 1146; it exhibits a level of nuance that i think usually doesn't coem from scum.

What's the nuance that doesn't come from scum?

i meant that nuance of that level doesn't usually come from scum in my experience

I'm blind and don't see any nuance so can you point out exactly what she said that displays nuance of that level?

[skitter30]

-the only reason I could see for scumrelephant to defend the towniness of both Shoshin and Gustavo is to keep Gus as a mislynch for later while pocketing Shosh, but that seemed way too far fetched. There are a half dozen good potential mislynch targets for down the road when half the game isn't close to town read. Scumrelephant would have benefited from letting one set the other up as scum to remove one of the most townread slots either way, but made cases for why neither of them might be scummy. The post digging up Shosh votes and refuting Gus without necessarily scum casing him was a point for townrelephant and I don't think there's a huge chance it was a hyper elaborate ploy, and even if it was, I don't mind scumrelephant bring tryhard pro-town. But the responses about Keyser still have me too wary to move to anything close to a town read.

it was specifically this paragraph; it exhibits a strong understanding of the gamestate and trying to understand the motivations of other players

[Shoshin]

Hmm, okay. It's a townish post.

[Shoshin]

At a glance, I find the lack of counter wagon possibly disturbing...

How do you find something "possibly" disturbing?

[skitter30]

either way, i just lost the townread; i'm down to like ~3 now

[Bernie Sanders]

I think if gamma emerald was scum and momrangal was town counterwagons wouldn't be split as so

Gamma Emerald(5) ~ Mathdino, Bernie Sanders, Shoshin, Not_Mafia, Gustavo -> N_M and possibly mathdino potential scum
Bernie Sanders(3) ~ Keyser Söze, Irrelephant11, Momrangal -> Think probably just momrangal scum, MAYBE keysor if he has a really good scumrange
Momrangal(2) ~ skitter30, Nauci -> Probably town wagon
Nauci(1) ~ the worst -> Potential scum vanity
Gustavo(1) ~ Gamma Emerald -> eh

Not Voting (1): Errantparabola -> Potential scum Vanity

A) Gamma is scum and scum do not want gamma lynched. Only momrangal really fits this bill imo, everyone else is either doing vanity, including even gamma, or voting gamma
B) Gamma is scum and there's scum votes on him. Think this is possible but likely not as coordinated or strategic effort. Math if scum probably just distanced and got inactive, no case or anything he'd get credit for pushing. N_M might've done as independent action, idk his busing willingness though possibly looked and saw gamma as a sinking ship. Odd scenario and doesn't feel super likely altogether.

Spoiler: latest essentially the same

Gamma Emerald(5) ~ Mathdino, Bernie Sanders, Shoshin, Not_Mafia, Gustavo
Bernie Sanders(2) ~ Keyser Söze, Momrangal
Momrangal(2) ~ skitter30, Nauci
the worst(1) ~ Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11

Mostly nothing interesting (irrelephant change off would be more notable if from someone else)

Really quick from my skimming apart from gamma

TW still pretty mediocre TBH even with content. kinda just wanna lynch him because it would feel good if I was right but I'm wavering on how high percentage it actually is despite everything and losing town tw would be kinda bad. was super hoping to get more from math on this as some due diligence (dont think theyd be s-s) but he said though he scumread him he had bad luck calling it early
Momr I think might be scum now. half hearted nauci wagon join when she had way more reason to do me i dont like or understand. view on gamma and concern feels fake and even kinda excusatory. I get the impression she magicks reads because when she talks or responds to other people about her reads shes just like boring justifying and explaining and not like reconsidering doubting but also still not really like town explaining their thoughts. lack of emotion but also I feel like she doesn't try to convince or care if her explanations make an impact if that makes sense?
EP is logically okay but feels off. feel like he exaggerates how much he can take away from specifics that i dont see how someone can feel strongly from. his reads are pretty close to mine which I still think are probably more or less accurate (doubt i misread any of the people im towning and scum are probably still in my pool though if I was here ideally I'd have been able to narrow it down more) but makes lots of judgments with like a "well, obviously" way and so much confidence that hes objectively right which feels like scum knowing aligns. this latter part has potential stylistic caveat though so yeah
N_M yeah idk N_M. neglecting this game to the point where I still haven't due diligence metad invisibility also (sorry) given shoshin vouched but again blind read is hes just noobscum play (pretty common bland newbie type of scum, shallow lazy and doesnt town agenda and often flakes out)

mathdino doesnt even feel scummy but just hasnt really towntelled, low odds on him though. keysor I remember towntelling a lot and is probably just town but only mention here as unlike a lot of others he gives me the impression he MAY have a decent scumrange and like be one-of-those-guys and gets a kick out of what hes doing

Now gamma, him starting to engage and ask questions now after it being brought up so often and so hard and giving content after essentially having it beaten out of him and even then it's really not great. idk if he's really actually interested in his questions and pursuing his leads or kinda just talking and if his approach is really to find scum or just look interested and do what people expect. the activity thing, reads based on checking profiles is probably the best thing out of him altogether as far as scumhunting but even then at this point and lacking so much else I can see scum getting to that point mentally of thinking of how to look like scumhunting given somehow just not seeing any good points or whatever else and like "oh I could check the activity". funnily enough normally I'd really townread it, as a supplementary thing to substance reads it'd be going the mile beyond and a huge tell IMO, but as the primary just "thing you're doing" and justification for tw vote meh. but again there's the problem that it's actually potentially just true about TW wrt this game and again there have been some anti-team-tells which means I have to be wrong on one of them. finally I can't judge as to AI but its throwing me off how unfazed he seems to be about his wagon and not even really counterwagoning himself (though its possible momrs scum and idk maybe not comfortable justifying scumread on me?) but doing tw vote.

In context with wagons though gamma has been fairly easy and most people he'd be with would really be hanging him out to dry in a way that doesn't make sense. I actually think momrangal is probably the best vote here; if gamma is scum I think she's almost certainly counterwagoning but if gamma is town I think she's still in a good position to push on me for being on it with her off. I think skitter and nauci are probably town onto her and finally if gamma is town I could see her potentially being with the worst as an alternative (TW scumread mom and voted for pressure but seemed to lose interest)

VOTE: momrangal

My lynch priority is something like

momrangal > N_M > Gamma Emerald > TW > Errant > (over math and then over anyone else)

fact that I probably have to be wrong on either gamma or tw in spite of everything makes it kinda hard to justify going there (I think better EV move is lynch outside and really try to find probably source of misread and townread him ideally if I get the chance)
N_M being thrown in there is pretty much just based on invisibility slot again though admittedly there is an element that I highly doubt I'll be able to sort anything that comes from N_M either

as an FYI I'm probably not going to be able to take time and even skim read like this again (which still took hours and that's even mostly just selected ISOs) until deadline though I will try to check VCs if I have to compromise but this is where I'm at right now.

as pedit side note its bizarre how after hours writing up a post the same things get brought up right before
ps super rushed this so possible misread something in skim or missed one or two things if they got brought up already

[Nauci]

actually i reconsider my take on the lack of opposition to the gamma thing; nauci, if gamma ever flips scum that's a gross post and you're my first bet for a partner

specifically i'm considered that the first time you brought up this take is *after* i made a thing about it, and that you've been pushing the gamma and/or his wagon for a while now despite not joining it

like how do you just now decide 'at a glance i find the lack of a counter wagon' possibly disturbing; you literally just had a thing about people's voting patterns, and nm has been on the wagon for like three irl days now.

I'm not super sure what you're talking about but the post I made was just after I read Shoshin's reply to me and I didn't read any of the updates because I hadn't had time

@the worst

I have absolutely no reason whatsoever to think that NM is town so following that blank vote feels vvvvvv bad

Not to mention I don't town read you or Irrelephant and don't want to vote where you are wanting to either

And I don't believe in doing this just to end the day when we have a few more days

Excited to read the giant Bernie post but don't have time tonight T_T

[Nauci]

At a glance, I find the lack of counter wagon possibly disturbing...

How do you find something "possibly" disturbing?

Because while it's possible that the half of the town that's actually active has collectively settled on actual scum

Or a bunch of scum know we're about to mislynch and are happy to sit bad and twiddle their thumbs; no need to draw unnecessary attention to themselves to save their own via counter wagoning. The wagon is too big to all be scum but there's just so much passivity.

I remember the glee and anticipation of Irrelephant11 and Brassherald during d3 of our game where they were actively F5ing a lot, waiting for town to fall on their own sword to their own theories, and the quietness makes me very paranoid that's happening

But I say possibly because I have no way to rule out the possibilities that A: most of the active players are town and scum aren't fighting it because they're the afk ones, or B: scum are the people who did try to push someone else but just haven't been successful enough for there to be much of a counter wagon

I think I scrolled past Bernie voting for momrangal so that might change this analysis, but that was my train of thought at the time of that post

[the worst]

Mom is town tho

[Nauci]

I don't think NM would blank vote bus short of wifom, Bernie

Either he's scum hopping on an opportunity, or town who thinks gamma is scum

I don't see how he would break from apathy and silence for next level mind games when he can just as easily do what we expect: nothing.

Can't 100% rule out chaos factor for NM because I don't know him well enough; can people who have played with him comment on how often he does something as chaotic as that?

[Nauci]

Mom is town tho

1: Momrangal being potentially town is why I said Bernie's vote my change my previous feelings about the lack of counter wagon

2: seriously I don't understand why everyone is town reading her, TW can you explain your thought process there

[the worst]

794 and surrounding were solid af fmpov. like I am not a fan of how I was positioned as scum for my predecessor and irl busyness here. it crossed my mind several times that I was an easy af push for scum to hide behind, and I found Mom seeing things exactly the same way.

either she's town or has me pocketed hard but I'm not sure what scum!Mom's method is in WKing me here

[the worst]

besides honestly that's just the wrong track. Gamma is just not town here, and it's seriously gross the way you're pussyfooting around his lynch.

[Nauci]

Okay you have to admit that it's reasonable for me to question if your townread on her is worth its salt if the post was defending you, regardless of the rest of the context, right?

I probably have 2-3 games where I've run up a wagon personally or there was a wagon on someone I thought was scum, but I protested ending the day any earlier than necessary before exploring more avenues and gathering more information.

There's nothing mutually exclusive about being suspicious of Gamma and suspicious around the circumstances of this vote count/game state.

@brass: NM hasn't post in 2.5 days

Irrelephant11/TW/whomever else was planning to hammer: can we wait to see if Math/NM respond to prods in time? Which is a minimum of 12 hours from now, I think?

Short list of players I absolutely do not want lynched today:

Skitter, Keyser, Shoshin

Rather not lynch:

Bernie, Gus, Math (not a TR, but would be far easier to sort tomorrow)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯:

Irrelephant11, Errant

OFF WITH THEIR HEADS (except not actually: while I'd be okay with any one of these heads rolling, I need more time to figure out which is actually scum since obviously not all can be):

Not_Mafia, The Worst, Gamma, Momrangal

Goodnight!

[the worst]

yeah but why are you asking me to remove context from my reads on people? :/

Irrelephant11/TW/whomever else was planning to hammer: can we wait to see if Math/NM respond to prods in time? Which is a minimum of 12 hours from now, I think?

obviously

[brassherald]

I prodded NM, I missed it last night, it was late and I was tired.

[Keyser Söze]

Will do a read through of momrangel and one last attempt at Gamma, who I’ve resisted voting despite the shade I’ve thrown his slot... I’m currently thinking he’s town who hasn’t played his optimum pro-town game and is being lynched for it. It’s WIFOM reasoning, and therefore a very weak town lean. I understand the votes though ¯\_(ツ)_/¯