Newbie 1875 | D4

[Nexus]

Nexus are you scumreading plat and este only in conjunction with each other or are you scum reading each of them individually

A very good question.

When I get home from work I will have an answer for you

[Invisibility]

oh i got prodded
hi

[Invisibility]

i feel better about espeonage
UNVOTE:

[teacher]

Here it comes, another wall (though I will try to break it up into multiple posts). This one will (1) respond to Elephant’s posts that come after my Plat=town case in 290, and (2) provide the center of my Nexus=Scum case. The second post will (3) continue that case, (4) play out the ramifications of that conclusion for the rest of my reads, and (5) respond to others’ questions and comments. Finally, the third post will (6) provide details on how I plan to play the rest of the day. Sorry that I haven’t mastered the art of conciseness.

The key theory behind this first post is possible/probable. Scum survive on what is possible. Detecting them depends on what is probable. (I already linked the detailed write up, but here it is again.) With that out of the way, lets respond to Elephant and case Nexus.

*******

1. Responding to Elephant

Except that scum!Klick has to keep a mislynch around for tomorrow . . . .Lynching the easiest lynch is not always (or even usually) scum’s best play

This is a perfect demonstration of the theory. I agree that it is POSSIBLE scum!klick partnered with scum!Plat still defends Espe, but it is not PROBABLE. You accurately described optimal scum play UNLESS they are a D1 target. At that point, any town lynch (even the easiest one) is better than a scum lynch, and scum can rely on both the flip and the night kill to create revaluations. Thus, it is far more LIKELY that scum!klick at least stays neutral on town!Espe if scum!Plat is a partner. For that reason, I am very confident Klick-Plat is not a team.

Why do you townread Invis so “hard”? Not that i necessarily disagree about the slot I just don’t think my read is “hard”

This feels like nit-picking. I said explicitly that this was “the weakest part of my case.” You don’t seem to disagree with the thrust (Invis=townish) yet you direct attention to the side point rather than the conclusion that Plat is town. If you agree that Invis is likely town, who is Plat partnered with? (to be clear, I think you are one of Nexus’s more likely partners, which is why Im suspect of this side-defense).

*******

2. Now onto why Nexus is scum.

Here, it is the same basic theory, and centers on the fact that Nexus pushed Plat+Espe together. For about a week, since 154 at the latest (and more likely starting two pages before that), Plat and Espe have been the leading wagons. But, as Elephant already explained in 143 and 144, Plat and Espe are UNLIKELY (but possible) to be the scumteam. Nonetheless, Nexus pushes them both together in 165 and 186. That to me feels like scum advancing either or both of two mislynches in a way that does not attract much attention since the views on both slots (in isolation) are accepted. Same with 249 and 263 – both just feel like mislynch cheerleading.

[Irrelephant11]

Oh I'm not really townreading Nexus, and I think your case has a lot of merit. But you say yourself it's founded on a couple specific townreads that I'm not sure are strong enough logical foundation. I'm not asking questions to tear it down, just to inspect if it's actually useful

I'm also not trying to suggest possibilities, I really do think it's *probable* that scum will cast a medium amount of shade on their partner. then again, this is more likely when there are more than two scum, so point taken.

You also didn't answer my question about Invis, though - it really is just a question to clarify your read on Invis. Like the main reason I asked is I was wondering "what am I missing about Invis" not "this is bad part of a big bad argument and I want to defend Nexus" - this is borderline misreppy from you.

I'm also not a huge fan of you determining Nexus's alignment with so little interaction with Nexus himself.

Gonna re-read to look for a plat partner, brb

[Irrelephant11]

Still townreading teacher, since I do understand being paranoid of me after our last game

[xRECKONERx]

teacher
stungun0404 (1): platfleece
Klick:
Irrelephant11 (2): Klick, Espeonage
platfleece (3): Nexus, stungun0404, Irrelephant
Xander
Nexus (1): teacher
Invisibility
Espeonage

Deadline for D1 is (expired on 2018-07-06 00:00:00).

platfleece has been prodded.

[teacher]

Post 2 of 4, designed to (3) continue my Plat=town case, (4) discuss the ramifications for that case on my board-reads. I’ve moved (5) responding to others to post 4, after (6) how I plan to play out the rest of the day.

*******

3. Plat=Town

So I already talked about my difficulty partnering them in 290. But I should also link up my earlier discussion of D1 theory in 166. Simply, regardless of play, I do not think that the first likely lynch on D1 is scum as opposed to lynchbait. I frequently view the first accepted lynch as likely town. That reaction is reinforced by the gameplay here. The reasons to suspect Plat seem weak

compared to

the consensus against him.

Sure, 24 was bad, but it was RVS. More important to me is that Plat acknowledged it was bad. Every time he has been pressured, Plat’s responses have (as Espe said) bled town – they are mature and understanding without true fear of being lynched.

Likewise, my own omgus-in-advance case seemed good, but in fact Plat did not scum espe for voting him (I discounted this reaction because Elephant scummed Espe instead, but it still is a point in favor of Plat). And I am not aware of any other actual case being made, but the Plat lynch wagon seems more to be the slow consensus of weak cases without a counter push than an actual captured scum. Bottom line, I believe scum is ok with this lynch, so I am not.

*******

4. My Readslist.

So for all of the reasons in 290 and here, Im pretty well convinced Plat is town. Lets discuss how that impacts the whole boards readlist (again, based off of 0):

• teacher
  : dirtbag.
  
• stun
  : This is an ISO townread for me, independent of the Plat case (where he is currently voting). Because of lack of external evidence, it is weaker than Plat or Klick, and around the same level as Invis.
  
• Klick
  : My thoughts in 241 haven’t moved. Very likely town, in part because of the Plat defense. Weaker than Plat, stronger than Stun/Invis because it is external rather than just ISO.
  
• Elephant
  : I will never strongly townread Elephant after the way he cakewalked me in our previous game. But I have been gradually moving him to scum. I don’t like his Plat vote without ever making a case, when he has discussed just about everything else. The mechanical discussion (especially how he introduced it without discussing a drawback) could have been designed to out a PR, or otherwise could have been to appear chatty and helpful (something that had been given pretty weak townreads already this game). The acceptance of Nexus’ reasons for scum reading Plat+Espe in 187 seems really weak compared to the force with which Elephant himself had rejected that pairing in 143-144 – too willing to accept the improbable. The questioning of my case in 290 after it was posted also seemed sideways. This may be paranoia, but null-scum.
  
• Plat
  : town, Ive covered this.
  
• Xander
  : My most interesting slot. As explained in 290, Im inclined to read this as paranoid town. They are discussing and answering questions, but with some contradictions (e.g., Im suspect because Im setting Plat up to be a mislynch followed by Plat and me are scum together). The fact that they aren’t voting, and cant really explain their play on Espe gives me pause, so I will put them at null-town.
  
• vNexus[/b]: Scum, Ive covered this. But I also don’t like the intentional continuation of a lurky game from an SE, so add policy into the reasons for my vote.
  
• Espe
  : I like the reaction to Plat, saying it bled town. I agree, but a scum have said the same thing simply for the towncred. I also like, and have less worries about, the Klick conversation with Elephant. But I still have meta issues generally, and especially with an IC lurking out. I will put this as a null.
  
• Invis
  : An ISO town case similar to Stun. I said before I have difficulty with Invis’s meta and that remains true. However his reactions have read genuine and I certainly don’t feel like he is pushing (or even voteparking) for a mislynch. Townlean weaker than Klick, stronger than Xander.

[teacher]

Post 3 of 4, to discuss (6) how I plan to play the rest of the day, with the theoretical explanation for the newbs.

We have approximately 80 hours to achieve a lynch. Town should lynch – not only is it the only way we can get rid of scum, but it also the only way we can learn verifiable facts. Not only is the dead person’s role flipped, but also there is wagon composition. If the dead flips scum, we know the other scum was probably off wagon. If it flips town, we know there was very likely one (and probably only one) scum on the wagon.

Achieving a lynch should be a day long process, to allow time for L-1, announcement of intent, and roleclaiming. So we really are running out of time. I have stood with my plat=town case out there for more than a day. I am going to hope these longer walls can move somebody for the next little bit.

If I cannot rally a nexus wagon today, I plan to spend D-3 (i.e., Tuesday) in my compromise lynch pool. That pool – which is accurately described above (and not in my drunken 290) – is Nexus, Elephant, Espe. I will vote whichever one of them is ahead during Tuesday, to try to get us to L-1, so will probably move to Elephant if I cant get people to move to nexus.

If I cannot advance any of my preferred targets to L-1 on Tuesday, on Wednesday I will become willing to vote almost anybody. As stated above, at bottom a lynch is more important than a lynch target, and especially in a lurky game I want to allow sufficient time to allow the L-1, intent, and claiming process to occur.

Basically why I am posting this is to encourage Xander and Invis to cast actual votes, and people to get geared up for a deadline that falls right in the middle of national holidays in both the US and Canadia.

[Xander]

I'm gonna be travelling, so VLA till Wednesday

[Irrelephant11]

I will never strongly townread Elephant after the way he cakewalked me in our previous game. But I have been gradually moving him to scum. I don’t like his Plat vote without ever making a case, when he has discussed just about everything else. The mechanical discussion (especially how he introduced it without discussing a drawback) could have been designed to out a PR, or otherwise could have been to appear chatty and helpful (something that had been given pretty weak townreads already this game). The acceptance of Nexus’ reasons for scum reading Plat+Espe in 187 seems really weak compared to the force with which Elephant himself had rejected that pairing in 143-144 – too willing to accept the improbable. The questioning of my case in 290 after it was posted also seemed sideways. This may be paranoia, but null-scum.

but you haven't addressed any of these things to me, though. Like individually these reasons could be scummy or they might not be but you haven't asked me for my reason for voting Plat (trying to get wagons to exist and get players to vote), why I brought up mechanics (there was very little to talk about and I wanted to decipher if any scum would get excited about the discussion as a way of outing PRs), whether I really believe Nexus (sidenote: my thoughts at that time on Nexus were "lazy, unhelpful town, how annoying"), or what my questions were about (see above). I get paranoia, but come on, you've asked me ZERO questions about the things you're finding scum motivation behind, which is really not a pro-town way to play given a majority of players will give you honest responses.

Your sheer force of effort is pretty towny, and even if you're scum you deserve to live another day just to make the game play-able, but wow is it frustrating that you're not asking questions about any of this

VOTE: Nexus

Agreed that we need a lynch, and we also need to L-1 soon because I'm not lynching a PR claim

pedit: Xander at least vote before you go! Gahhhhhhhh

Still working on reading associations just had to respond here

[teacher]

Finally, post 4 of 4, to (5) respond to everybody else since I went v/la weeknd. I moved this to last so I could hit the posts after I started building these walls…..

s it normal for this many people to be replaced during a game?

This game is NOT normal, at least compared to my exposure on site, but not due to the replacements. Replacing in/out seems relatively common (and NAI in my limited experience; Id expect 3ish in a 9 player game). Lurking, in contrast, is more rare. Ive seen more prods in this game than all my others combined. So normally you at least have a basis for a read on the slot that is being replaced, unlike here.

I might even do a list.

You didn’t make one. I sure wouldn’t mind one.

I honestly have more of an idea where nexus sits on reads than teacher, just from denisity inside each post.

This was certainly true, I didn’t put out my reads on many slots because they change too often over the course of the day. Now that its end of day, Ive put them out there. But allow me to introduce you to the kettle – you never made the list you said you might. Id love to know your whole board thoughts, especially given how much you’ve lurked.

why isolato over xander, though?

I think this has been overtaken by events, and I have posted a more recent reads-list. Let me know if you want me to answer this based on the then-current board situation, however.

the main reason I asked is I was wondering "what am I missing about Invis" not "this is bad part of a big bad argument and I want to defend Nexus" -

Probably not much. Id crop this one up to drunken misphrasing. Invis was one of my two hardest townreads based on pure ISO, not that I think they are locktown. I just don’t see lurky-prodded invis partnered with lurky-prodded Plat, nor (and this is belated) unvoting Espe. I am as comfortable with Invis’s alignment as I will ever get given their playstyle.

[teacher]

wow is it frustrating that you're not asking questions about any of this

Love you too, snookums.

Honestly, I dont see questions as that helpful on the points I read the most into -- scum can come up with some explanation (I assume), and town might have just as weak of one because they arent thinking things through as much. So I dont question points I find salient because I dont want to warn scum off (at least until I make a case). Instead, I try to ask questions on the points I dont care as much about, because I care more about the thought process behind the answer than the answer.

I am (as Ive said) really not that good at reading in isolation. Im better at the analytical side of the game -- VCA and associations. To the extent Im trying to read ISO, its more about personality consistency to me than the logic of individual play. If I feel like I understand how you think (even on points I dont care as much about), I can apply that approach to whatever point Im silently stewing over.....

[Irrelephant11]

Love you too, snookums.

<3

[teacher]

I'm also not a huge fan of you determining Nexus's alignment with so little interaction with Nexus himself.

I've tried, both directly and indirectly.

Indirectly, I encouraged Xander to question Nexus immediately after their arrival, in 171. No luck.

Directly, I questioned Nexus about their Xander read in 217. No response.

I also tried directly again in 261, only to get 263's empty cheerleading (without any further explanation) back.

You yourself had already questioned Nexus about the plat-espe point in 185, so I didnt need to.

Simply searching the game for Nexus will show that you and I tried to engage the slot multiple times, with us each having equal number of direct questions (2). I dont think its fair to say Ive had so little interaction. Regardless, it is fair to say the slot has never been engaged.

[teacher]

FWIW I have half a post typed up on my computer that’s been there for over a day but am also mostly a phone on the weekends. Apologies for the wait.

You have essentially one post since subbing in five days ago. Please post this even if it is not finished.

[teacher]

My god this game is depressing.

[platfleece]

so I'm back from my flight and haven't checked the full thread but it seems I've gotten prodded, so... did my V/LA notice not get noticed I'm assuming? Or am I V/LAing wrong?

Nevertheless, I'm back in full focus in the game now. Will catch up

[teacher]

did my V/LA notice not get noticed I'm assuming? Or am I V/LAing wrong?

You said you were going V/LA in thread, but didnt change your control panel. Most Mods dont necessarily read every post (thats why they ask for bold if trying to reach them), and in any event most use the "activity" panel on bottom to conduct prods and the like. Reckoner said this was their own MO earlier this game.

For V/LA to show up in the activity panel, it has to be formally entered. To formally enter V/LA, click the user control panel link on the top left of your screen. When that comes up, click the V/LA tab all the way to the right. Then you can enter the dates.

[Klick]

I like my vote much more given the response I got from it. No immediate vote change from Irrelephant - that would be a clear OMGUS vote and too obviously scummy - so he says he'll re-read isolato, implying he wants more to go off of before placing his vote. But then when he can't get anything implicating from isolato's posts, he goes for the vote anyway. Why not vote right away if that's reasoning enough for you to warrant a vote change?

IRT my Espeonage read, this is the post that made me originally feel really good about Espe:

Ok this is screwed, plat had a mature response to my vote which bleeds town.

So eh.

I still don't get the invis reads part her talking like town meta. Which I kinda still hate as reasoning.

I struggle to see the motivation behind Espe jumping off the plat wagon in this manner while it's building momentum. If he was scum trying not to look bad on a potential mislynch, I think this would be accompanied with a push elsewhere, not just blanket townreading without follow-up. He's stifling the play he's been pushing up to that point in a way that doesn't follow with a coherent scum plan.
In addition, he came to the same conclusion as I did on plat for similar reasons, lending credit to him being a town player with logical reads.

[Invisibility]

im not sure who to vote right now
i'm going to try to reread tomorrow because the thread is not very daunting in its current state

[Irrelephant11]

I think Plat’s most likely partner is actually probably Invisibility?

I agree that, alone, Invis looks like mmmm probably more likely town than scum? But associations are lot stronger after a flip. Until then, I think it’s wisest to lynch someone we’re pretty sure is scum, then find their partner later

In response to klick, I re-read Isolato to see why I had been townreading the slot. If the reasoning was strong, I wouldn’t vote someone just off a somewhat scummy entrance. The reasoning for townreading Isolato was weak, though, so I voted. I’ve also learned I have a hard time disassociating votes on me from scumminess, though, so it was only with some distance that I could see how your entrance want enough for a vote

[xRECKONERx]

did my V/LA notice not get noticed I'm assuming? Or am I V/LAing wrong?

You said you were going V/LA in thread, but didnt change your control panel. Most Mods dont necessarily read every post (thats why they ask for bold if trying to reach them), and in any event most use the "activity" panel on bottom to conduct prods and the like. Reckoner said this was their own MO earlier this game.

For V/LA to show up in the activity panel, it has to be formally entered. To formally enter V/LA, click the user control panel link on the top left of your screen. When that comes up, click the V/LA tab all the way to the right. Then you can enter the dates.

Thanks, teacher! This is correct

[Espeonage]

I think Plat’s most likely partner is actually probably Invisibility?

I agree that, alone, Invis looks like mmmm probably more likely town than scum? But associations are lot stronger after a flip. Until then, I think it’s wisest to lynch someone we’re pretty sure is scum, then find their partner later

In response to klick, I re-read Isolato to see why I had been townreading the slot. If the reasoning was strong, I wouldn’t vote someone just off a somewhat scummy entrance. The reasoning for townreading Isolato was weak, though, so I voted. I’ve also learned I have a hard time disassociating votes on me from scumminess, though, so it was only with some distance that I could see how your entrance want enough for a vote

Jesus man, if plat flips scum this is surely scum too.

[Irrelephant11]

why?