Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[brassherald]

Officially, if Math does not post within 24 hours, I'm prodding him, since I believe the timer was almost up the end of Day 1. If he does not respond, he will be replaced.

[Errantparabola]

These past few days have been pretty crazy so my brain has sort of done what is essentially a hard flush of this game over the night. I know there were hanging questions about reading skitter and the worst and etc etc so I might reread but I also might ignore those questions, unless it really really really bothers you that I'm doing that.

I remember someone was scumreading me for being too confident or something adjacent to that, and that really annoyed me, so please stop doing that!

[Bernie Sanders]

I think we should potentially look into hypoclaiming today, but I'm not sure how exactly it would work.

[Shoshin]

I think we should potentially look into hypoclaiming today, but I'm not sure how exactly it would work.

What is hypoclaiming?

[Bernie Sanders]

At minimum, no full readslists though.

[skitter30]

If I did anything that would signify my target is likely town on mechanics upon my flip I targeted X

If I did anything that would signify my target is likely scum on mechanics upon my flip I targeted Y

is prob the best you can do something like this

idk how successful hypoclaiming might be; idk how good people will be able to keep up the fake townread and/or scumread, which would presumably help scum sort out the relevant prs if enough people don't do it well

[Bernie Sanders]

Actually I'm not sure it's a good idea. Mathdino thoughts?

[Nauci]

Can you explain what you meant by refusing to post justifications (about gamma potential partners) day 1? Is it that justify and explain mean different things to you?

Yes and yes.

Okay, follow up: what does justification mean to you?

[Irrelephant11]

My answer is still Keyser but we’ll see. It mostly comes from townleaning Skitter still and switching between scum/null-reading Keyser

[Irrelephant11]

Errant do you have any strong reads at this point?

If not, please gather and offer reads on all players on Gamma’s lynch as you have time.

[Bernie Sanders]

VOTE: momrangal

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: momrangal[/] because wowwww Mom talking about Gamma is terrible and gross in retrospect

Examples to come

Pedit: same

[Irrelephant11]

Irrelephant11
Shoshin
stungun0404
Keyser Soze

Mathdino
Bernie

Nauci
the worst
northsidegal*
Invisibility

Gamma Emerald
skitter

That's where I stand. Moved invis with meta considered

Stun-town
Keys???town
Mathprobtown but I'm probably gonna flip back and forth there
Gamma??? Worth looking into
Elephant???town
Nanci???
Sho???
Skit???
DUCCKKKKYYYYYY!!!!if scum, never playing with Gemini again
NSG??
Bernie???town

Mentally I'm on page 9, but I don't know invisibilitys meta. I've never played and I pulled something I thought was scummy and rolled with it. I know you touched on it once but like, even if it is his meta whats stopping him from being scum here? If it's his meta it should be NAI and you shouldn't be town reading him off that.

Mom, what's your current read on Gamma?

I'm hung up on it.

Gamma is not town, and makes sense as scum but at the same time something doesn't feel right.

Wagon comp could be better and I may be hung up on the fact that Bernie is on there. It doesn't seem like much of a bus placement but in my mind, both Bernie and gamma have decent chance of flipping scum but I don't see much associations between them.

That aside, I feel like gamma has been getting a little bit more engaged and I don't want to discourage that especially when I think I see some probing I don't remember coming from scum gamma

this post is gross and fence-sitty. 'gamma is not town, and makes sense as scum but at the same time something doesn't feel right' - like what does this even mean?

Guess it means I'm scum getting cold feet from a Gamma!bus

Realtalk tho, you're pulling this out of context

What do you think of {mathdino, tw, nm}, especially compared to other times you've seen them? In addition, are there any people you'd like me to reconsider my read on?

Duck.

Also, NM posted like, once? I feel like I remember him posting alot more as town and I expected him to make a bigger entrance here now that you've brought him up.

I actually townread math which IDK how to really take considering I usually scumread him regardless of his alignment. Objectively speaking, though and in a vacuum everything he's done is straight null alignment wise. Nothing he's done is outside his range of play as scum but I have a gut feeling that he isn't here, and it may be his progression.

Duck, I've stated my thoughts on him multiple times, and I am not really seeing the lack of spirit that everyone else seems to see. I don't think he's played like he did when he was scum though this fade is a little weird, but I think it's entirely plausible that this game may have slipped his mind. I also see him as town based off something that I don't really want to talk about

Sorry about the order of quote I’m on mobile

VOTE: momrangal

[skitter30]

VOTE: mom

ftr i consider irrelephant's vote suspect given that he was hard townreading her yesterday for little reason and i literally called out all of her bad interactions with the gamma wagon yesterday repeatedly

p-edit: yes, all of those

[Irrelephant11]

I’m estimating two scum on wagon and one off

Those of you off the wagon, since Gamma is town, which of the other four off the wagon seem most likely to be scum?

[Errantparabola]

my biggest reads are keyser and bernie as town.
scummy off the wagon are skitter and momrangal but I'd have to read on how they interacted with Gamma prior for specific scumminess related to being off the wagon

[Nauci]

my biggest reads are keyser and bernie as town.
scummy off the wagon are skitter and momrangal but I'd have to read on how they interacted with Gamma prior for specific scumminess related to being off the wagon

That's kind of weird when Skitter (and I, but less so) started the momrangal wagon and is the only reason it continued to be a thing at all.

[Nauci]

You guys have got to stop town reading math

He's promised to come back and post several times, but I'm pretty sure every time he glances over, he sees that people are oddly town reading him and decides lol I can only make it worse by posting and fucks back off

I know because I suck at scumming and that was basically how I did it. And because Math repeatedly professes to suck at being scum.

Even NM has participated more at this point than Math and it's gross that we're letting him off the hook with some bizarre sort of elder respect or "seems good" approach.

It's even more questionable than the mysterious stubborn town reads of mom all of day 1

Outside of that though, I still scumread momrangal.

But this game doesn't look like it's going to progress at all w/o the half of the game who have been left behind actually participating so I'm de-prioritizing this versus bootcamp for now. I guess I need more than 3 hours of sleep a night...

Irrelephant, after all we learned from teh newbie game, why do you still think that wagon analysis has credence? What are you basing it on? Hunch? Statistics? Why is on/off wagon such an important measure to you? Does the VT flip factor into it? How?

What does "gross" mean WRT mom's posts on Gamma? If you think Mom is scum, does that affect your read of Bernie?

What about Keyser's end of day behavior makes you FOS him?

Your posts fell back into complacent/shallow as soon as we backed off the pressure on you and I don't like that one bit

[the worst]

he's been offsite for a few days with irl stuff

focus elsewhere nauci.

[brassherald]

I forgot to do a votecount before work this morning. Sorry, only one today

[Irrelephant11]

VOTE: mom

ftr i consider irrelephant's vote suspect given that he was hard townreading her yesterday for little reason and i literally called out all of her bad interactions with the gamma wagon yesterday repeatedly

p-edit: yes, all of those

Sorry, what part are we scumreading here? The way I'm voting your scumread? Or the way my read on Mom changed to match new information? (Or some third option, don't let me box you in)

Irrelephant, after all we learned from teh newbie game, why do you still think that wagon analysis has credence? What are you basing it on? Hunch? Statistics? Why is on/off wagon such an important measure to you? Does the VT flip factor into it? How?

What does "gross" mean WRT mom's posts on Gamma? If you think Mom is scum, does that affect your read of Bernie?

What about Keyser's end of day behavior makes you FOS him?

Your posts fell back into complacent/shallow as soon as we backed off the pressure on you and I don't like that one bit

because Thor's wagon analysis was correct in that game, and it's extremely hard to lynch town without scum's help. It's also just an estimation based on how the lynch and the counterwagons felt at the time

"gross" has a pretty obvious connotation here
If you're asking me to explain the read, it's how mom had Gamma in her scumpile right up until he became a viable lynch, at which point she said the weird thing that skitter challenged and stayed off the lynch. Out of the people off the wagon, she certainly had the worst progression. I don't know yet if she's the lynch I want today, but it's a start

Though... isn't Mom actually V/LA? Maybe I should come back to her.

Nothing specific is coming to mind about Keyser's EOD that was AI, why do you ask?

Disagree, I've been on mobile a lot lately but my play is not shallow, I'm pushing players to give us all more to sort from, and making sure things get noticed that need to. I'm town. Moving on.

[Irrelephant11]

Irrelephant, after all we learned from teh newbie game, why do you still think that wagon analysis has credence? What are you basing it on? Hunch? Statistics? Why is on/off wagon such an important measure to you? Does the VT flip factor into it? How?

Also I'm basing VCA thoughts on this

But wait, if you think VCA is so useless, what is this for??? Sounds like you're admitting it's just LAMIST

Speaking of which, Keyser's vote wasn't reflected in the final vote counter.

I just finished updating mine. I messed up a thing and the first 3 votes weren't showing up but it's fixed now.

UNOFFICIAL Votecount Record DAY 1

Spoiler: final vote count day 1

Gamma Emerald (7) -

Nauci #102

,

Mathdino

#734[/size],

Bernie Sanders #841

,

Shoshin

#1162[/size],

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #1163

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1189

,

stungun0404/Gustavo

#1199[/size],

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1300

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst

#1472[/size],

Irrelephant11

#1484[/size],

Invisibility/Not_Mafia

#1485[/size],

Bernie Sanders

#1620[/size]

Momrangal (3) -

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #5

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #97

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #315

,

skitter30 #427

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #428

,

skitter30

#1070[/size],

Nauci #1079

,

Bernie Sanders #1363

,

Nauci

#1468[/size],

Keyser Soze

#1573[/size]

Invisibility/Not_Mafia -

Momrangal #51

,

Bernie Sanders #142

,

Nauci #1411

,

Gamma Emerald #1413

Bernie Sanders (1) -

Mathdino #7

,

Nauci #8

,

Keyser Soze #1252

,

Irrelephant11 #1254

,

Momrangal

#1270[/size]

Keyser Soze -

GeminiTwin12/the worst #227

,

Irrelephant11 #421

Nauci -

Mathdino #189

,

Shoshin #191

,

Irrelephant11 #473

,

Momrangal #799

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #801

northsidegal/Errantparabola -

stungun0404/Gustavo #170

GeminiTwin12/the worst -

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #169

,

skitter30 #527

,

Bernie Sanders #633

,

Nauci #675

,

Gamma Emerald #1294

stungun0404/Gustavo -

Shoshin #96

,

Irrelephant11 #99

,

Bernie Sanders #133

,

Shoshin #965

,

Gamma Emerald #1140

skitter30 -

Irrelephant11 #85

,

Keyser Soze #219

,

Irrelephant11 #222

,

Irrelephant11 #423

,

Momrangal #502

Shoshin (1) -

skitter30 #15

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #970

,

Gamma Emerald

#1503[/size]

Mathdino -

stungun0404/Gustavo #12

,

Shoshin #13

,

Bernie Sanders #323

Irrelephant11 -

Nauci #9

,

Nauci #704

,

skitter30 #741

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #788

UNVOTE (1) -

stungun0404/Gustavo #136

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #569

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #828

,

Keyser Soze #851

,

Irrelephant11 #900

,

Shoshin #999

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #1191

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola

#1193[/size],

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1303

,

Irrelephant11 #1315

,

Nauci #1385

,

Gamma Emerald #1390

,

Nauci #1445

VOTE RECORD BY PLAYER DAY 1

Spoiler: final votes by player day 1

Gamma Emerald

-

stungun0404/Gustavo #1140

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #1294

,

UNVOTE #1390

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #1413

,

Shoshin

#1503

Momrangal

-

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #51

,

skitter30 #502

,

Nauci #799

,

Bernie Sanders

#1270

Invisibility/Not_Mafia

-

Momrangal #5

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #169

,

Gamma Emerald #1163

,

Gamma Emerald

#1485

Bernie Sanders

-

stungun0404/Gustavo #133

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #142

,

Mathdino #323

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #633

,

Gamma Emerald #841

,

Momrangal #1363

,

Gamma Emerald

#1620

Keyser Soze

-

skitter30 #219

,

UNVOTE #851

,

Bernie Sanders #1252

,

Momrangal

#1573

Nauci

-

Bernie Sanders #8

,

Irrelephant11 #9

,

Gamma Emerald #102

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #675

,

Irrelephant11 #704

,

Momrangal #1079

,

UNVOTE #1385

,

Invisibility/Not_Mafia #1411

,

UNVOTE #1445

,

Momrangal

#1468

northsidegal/Errantparabola

-

Momrangal #97

,

UNVOTE

#1193

GeminiTwin12/the worst

-

Keyser Soze #227

,

Momrangal #315

,

Nauci #801

,

Gamma Emerald #1300

,

UNVOTE #1303

,

Gamma Emerald

#1472

stungun0404/Gustavo

-

Mathdino #12

,

UNVOTE #136

,

northsidegal/Errantparabola #170

,

Momrangal #428

,

UNVOTE #569

,

Irrelephant11 #788

,

UNVOTE #828

,

Shoshin #970

,

Gamma Emerald #1189

,

UNVOTE #1191

,

Gamma Emerald

#1199

skitter30

-

Shoshin #15

,

Momrangal #427

,

GeminiTwin12/the worst #527

,

Irrelephant11 #741

,

Momrangal

#1070

Shoshin

-

Mathdino #13

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #96

,

Nauci #191

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #965

,

UNVOTE #999

,

Gamma Emerald

#1162

Mathdino

-

Bernie Sanders #7

,

Nauci #189

,

Gamma Emerald

#734

Irrelephant11

-

skitter30 #85

,

stungun0404/Gustavo #99

,

skitter30 #222

,

Keyser Soze #421

,

skitter30 #423

,

Nauci #473

,

UNVOTE #900

,

Bernie Sanders #1254

,

UNVOTE #1315

,

Gamma Emerald

#1484

[Irrelephant11]

Weirdly enough, I read that progression as more town motivated because I couldn't see why he would wait until the last last last minute to pull out an incriminating meta dive, especially when Keyser had just made the momrangal wagon also viable. Unless mom-bernie actually is s/s which would seem weird too.

I agree with this read of Bernie EOD1, though I'm curious why you (Nauci) think mom/bernie s/s would be weird

[Keyser Söze]

D2 to-do list

- I'm going to relook at the D1 read progression by [Mathdino, Shoshin, Not_Mafia, Gustavo, the worst, Irrelephant11, Bernie Sanders] on Gamma (I do not expect the whole scum team to be in here. But neither have I ruled out it being a full-town-wagon. I am hoping to sift out the

opportunistic scum

from the

frustrated townie

.)
- Then I'm relooking at Bernie Sanders-Momrangal post Gamma t/flip.
- relook at the nature of my Gustavo t/read (strong town connection with stungun0404, but I do not share the same trust factor with Gustavo).
- a final sanity check on Nauci (developed into one of my strongest town reads vs scum-Nauci who knew I was town when defending me).

[Gustavo]

VOTE: keyeser

Really hate when people say they are going to do stuff instead of actually doing it.