Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Nauci]

Lmao that's beautiful

Okay I opted out of group work so I can slack off and read today and then code until 5 AM too make up for my hubris

Priorities for me are evaluating, in this order, momrangal, bv, errant, tw, Shoshin, Irrelephant unless Keyser/Skitter have suggestions

Updating vote record first

[Irrelephant11]

Your playstyle frustratingly doesn't seem to match any game you've ever played.

Scratch this thought about Keyser. After looking through ~5 town games and 2 scum games over ~3 total hours I think his only tell is his politeness. This could be confbias but he seems to get way more rude and aggressive as town, maybe not at first but almost every town game it happens. It doesn't happen as scum, though - he stays v polite. Polite and passive are his MO here imo.

The only other thing about it though is that at the end of his last town game he admitted he was trying to change his meta and mix things up. Regardless of alignment I assume that somewhat affects meta-reading him for here. Still, though, town-Keyser usually seems to have a bite to him that I'm not seeing here.

Also I just want to say Keyser townreads me like just so easily all game, and it really doesn't feel like he's had to work for it? Suggests he

knows

I'm town.

On another note, Mom's ISO doesn't look suddenly *super scummy* in retrospect (I still see the things I townread her for as slightly towny), but she's nullscum at best for her thoughts on Gamma, her entrance today, and her lurkiness after returning from V/LA. Curious to hear her reads.

[Keyser Söze]

“Knows I’m town”?

I’ll go through the progress of my read of you next

It will be good sanity check for myself too.

[Irrelephant11]

What do you mean? You’ve never anything but townread me, iirc

[the worst]

EP ily

[Keyser Söze]

What do you mean? You’ve never anything but townread me, iirc

Awww Irrelephant, if I scum read you will you feel better about me?

[Irrelephant11]

Maybe I would!

I mean you’re always allowed to towncase me for other’s benefit, I just remember thinking about your reads of me that you’re awfully sure about me, which fits with Shoshin’s other points of you knowing multiple players’ alignment

[Keyser Söze]

Well you have been trying to kill townies so far... that’s a bit scummy. I may need to revise my read...

[Irrelephant11]

Townies? Who... Gamma and you? I’m equally willing to lynch Mom, the worst, and Not_Mafia. You scumread at least two of those players, yes?

[BlackVoid]

Oh dear lord. *FEELS INTENSFIES* has Gamma finally cracked?

I'm not sure what you mean by "cracked" so please clarify if I'm wrong. I'm assuming you meant that Gamma was frustrated with the scumreads on him. I'm drawing attention to this because this feels like you are vaguely making Gamma look bad when he was under pressure and piling on.

I actually have a feeling

VOTE: bernie sanders

This is a bad vote. Making a note of this because I feel like in every scenario where Irrelephant could take a stance or put down a vote, he always tends to scumread/vote townies and townread people in my POE pool. That's one of the reasons almost nothing he's said in the game has made me townread him. I've actually followed one of his games - it was a newbie game where he was town, he replaced in and immediately figured out the scum. His arguments and direction of reads made sense to me which is another reason I'm considering him not making sense as an indicator that he's scum and not just someone with a different way of approaching the game than I do. I'm going to go look back at the game after I finish catching up.

Bernie is not scum with (and is therefore less likely to be aligned with) math, shoshin, momrangal, not_mafia, skitter, or nauci, all but one of whom I'm townreading, and who can townread not_maf at this point? (sidenote: it's hilarious to me that not_maf is the perfect replacement to carry the torch of invisibility's playstyle)

His likely partners if he flips scum are keyser, gustavo, the worst, gamma, and errantparabola which is actually a pretty good lynchpool

This doesn't explain why Bernie is scum to begin with and his interactions with TheWorst actually make no sense as scum to scum. Weren't you townreading errantparabola?

Defending the worst comes across as towny to me here given how widely scumread tw was at the time - unless they’re scum together, in which case this seems like pretty bad play?

The problem with this is that none of the points Momra made in favor of TheWorst are actually good ones. I think I touched on this before but do you actually agree with the points Momra is making about TheWorst?

Nauci's list in 674 is definitely not great and I think there's a good chance its fabricated and the towniest part is her self-meta section

Can you talk about why because I had pretty much the exact opposite thought. I think the direction of her reads lines up decently enough with mine that it pushed her over to a townlean for me. But I hated the self-meta section. A lot of it felt fake although I'm more inclined to attribute it to playstyle at this point.

From a probabilistic perspective, scum says this more often than town I think, in the weighted sense
1048 is also bad

Disagree with both. I don't think the first one is indicative of alignment. I'm not sure what the scum-motivation is but since you're arguing probabilities instead of motivation, I'd like to see instances where you've seen scum say this if you can remember. Edit: you took it back in 1295 but I still want to know your basis for making it in the first place.

Two things about your reads in 1278: First, why are you townreading TheWorst? Second, I'm somewhat surprised skitter is in your lynchpool. I get people scumreading her if they have a completely different playstyle but you said yourself that your styles are similar. Was there anything particular that bothered you?

1231 doesn't feel like town reacting to a case scum is making on them. @Gamma do you feel grossly misrepped by town!Key or actually think scum!Key is pushing you? it feels like you're not really willing to commit to either take?

Why isn't "Gamma is unsure" an option here? Town doesn't know who scum is so will often be considering multiple possibilities.

hard read: Gamma and Gustavo are not the same alignment.

Why can't they both be town? If you think it's plausible for a town-Gustavo to hop onto a Gamma wagon the way he did, then it holds true regardless of Gamma's flip. Unless you're saying Gustavo's vote on Gamma is scummy but since Gamma is scum and you can't see it as partner-y, Gustavo is town. In that case, it's confirmation bias assuming Gamma is already flipping scum. Anyways, I'm going to compile all my questions to you later in a neater post after I see how you dealt with Gustavo D2.

K I was mostly voting Bernie to have a chance to sort him before voting a scumread but if he’s V/LA that’s pointless

What did you hope to accomplish by voting him that you couldn't by just asking him questions? You went to quite some detail about who could or couldn't be Bernie partners so I'm not sure I believe that it was a post with the intent to "sort him."

In general I think stuff like Ate and self meta and sentences like that and things that people tend to hold as null or scummy actually come from town more often

I think I understand what you are saying here and why you liked Nauci's self-meta. I actually agree that self-meta is often more likely to come from town. Stuff like "there's no way I'd do this as scum" or "I'd have played this completely differently if I were scum" especially when it's said in a way that's really genuine are indeed townie. My problem with Nauci is that it wasn't said as a response to being pressured or in response to an accusation. It felt more like listing off things about how good she is which I read more as false bravado at that point. Just randomly saying "I give zero fucks about how I'm perceived" didn't sit well with me.

K I’m fine with a Gamma lynch. He’s gotten worse under pressure and my reason for ever having a townread will either be proven or disproven before the lynch goes through. He definitely hasn’t been super helpful, and in his last dozen/two dozen posts he fees less like town trying to help make his own lynch worthwhile and more like scum trying to hide associatives

This is really generic and bad. He got worse under pressure? How? I actually thought he started scumhunting more under pressure whereas earlier he was pretty lurky and unreadable. I think if Irrelephant had seen Gamma's posts getting worse, he would actually comment on them.

We still have plenty of time before deadline. Thanks for the votes, Nauci. It's pretty helpful.

I thought it was a rather poor use of 3 hours tbh if she was strapped for time. It felt kinda showy. Why not use that limited time to develop reads? Vote counts are something that would typically be more useful later on with flips.

1363 by Bernie is a very townie post.

794 and surrounding were solid af fmpov. like I am not a fan of how I was positioned as scum for my predecessor and irl busyness here. it crossed my mind several times that I was an easy af push for scum to hide behind, and

I found Mom seeing things exactly the same way.

either she's town or has me pocketed hard but I'm not sure what scum!Mom's method is in WKing me here

LOL what? In the post you linked, Momrangal shaded your biggest rock-solid townread that you vouched for (Bernie) and talked about how he's pushing you for a mislynch. This is one of the scummiest posts in the game. Edit: you talk about this later in 1450 but I still don't follow. "Gross" is a bizarre way to describe a push on you that you don't find scummy. I'm gonna need you to explain exactly what these tells are because you're holding onto these "secret tells" that Bernie is town and that doesn't help read you at all.

1371 by Nauci lines up with my own reads well enough that I think it's more likely to be town.

I think Bernie and Mom aren't s/s but maybe also not t/t so I need to reread there

Why can't they be town/town independent of your read on Momrangal? I'm always puzzled when someone claimes that two people are the same or different alignments. How can you make such a determination? The only thing you can really read into pre-flip is whether two people can be scum together, or not.

fake hammer tho

What town motive is there to call out a fake-hammer? I can think of the obvious scum motive; that you don't want your Gamma mislynch slipping away because Gamma reacts in a towny way when he thinks he's been hammered.

@Skitter, I'll summarize thoughts on the Gamma lynch here since you asked. It didn't change my reads much. I still find Irrelephant/TheWorst scummy and am thinking Momrangal is potentially a scum wagon that didn't go through. But that's me saying that nothing rules out this existing scumread as opposed to developing a new one. I think Not_Mafia's and Gustavo's vote are both pretty bad but Gustavo's isn't bad enough to outweigh my stungun townread and Not_Mafia/Invisibility is in a null spot for me. I wish Errantparabola was made to take a stance and put a vote down.

Finished reading until page 65 (end of D1). I'm going to take a short break and then read D2.

[the worst]

BV I see my name several times. If you have questions I haven't already answered pls address them to me.

[Keyser Söze]

@BV RE: 1224
If you compare the urgency/emotion of Gamma during the first half of the game vs his charged last stand, you should be able to notice a significant difference in him letting his guard down. I think it actually made him feel more real/genuine to me, actually concerned about the game. If he’d began the game with a little more zest he’d be alive right now. Vulnerability can be a town trait.

[Gustavo]

I think Not_Mafia's and Gustavo's vote are both pretty bad but Gustavo's isn't bad enough to outweigh my stungun townread

Have you even addressed the 2 cases I’ve made on sho? Skimming your posts I don’t believe you have. Until you explain town mentality for the things I’ve pointed out, you can’t say my vote is bad.

[Gustavo]

Checked again. You haven’t given opinions on either case so piss off calling my vote bad. It’s the best case I’ve seen by anyone in the game.

[brassherald]

So, you already know about father-son president pairs, but did you know that one grandson of a former president was elected? Benjamin Harrison was William Henry Harrison's grandson.

Votecount 2.8

momrangal (4)

~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst

the worst (1)

~ Keyser Soze

Shoshin (1)

~ Gustavo

Keyser Soze (2)

~ shoshin, Irrelephant11

Gustavo (1)

~ Not_Mafia

Not Voting (2): BlackVoid, Momrangal,Nauci

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2018-07-15 20:30:00)

[brassherald]

Momrangal has been prodded. If it turns out I got the date of her VLA wrong and she is still VLA, it will not count against her. For now it does.

[Shoshin]

I thought it was a rather poor use of 3 hours tbh if she was strapped for time. It felt kinda showy. Why not use that limited time to develop reads? Vote counts are something that would typically be more useful later on with flips.

I don't think it's helpful to discourage her efforts regardless of what you think about how she used the time. To be sure, it's not how I would have used 3 hours but to each their own. The important thing is that Nauci's probably town.

[Shoshin]

I could see Irrelephant as scum.

[Shoshin]

Nauci, how cacluated were Irrelephant's votes as scum?

[Irrelephant11]

*sigh*

I’ll cut in and say they were

very

calculated. Honestly it’s nice being townread but I’m playing pretty similar compared to that game, just worse.

[Shoshin]

*sigh*

I’ll cut in and say they were

very

calculated. Honestly it’s nice being townread but I’m playing pretty similar compared to that game, just worse.

That's the sense I got from the way Nauci talked about it, but I'd like her perspective.

[Shoshin]

You read through Key's games?

[Shoshin]

Did he narrate things as town? Or interpret things in ways that don't make sense?

[skitter30]

ep that post is hilarious

--

Priorities for me are evaluating, in this order, momrangal, bv, errant, tw, Shoshin, Irrelephant unless Keyser/Skitter have suggestions

mom > tw > irrelephant > errant > bv

i'm not super worried about bv or errant atm

--

Also I just want to say Keyser townreads me like just so easily all game, and it really doesn't feel like he's had to work for it? Suggests he knows I'm town.

On another note, Mom's ISO doesn't look suddenly *super scummy* in retrospect (I still see the things I townread her for as slightly towny), but she's nullscum at best for her thoughts on Gamma, her entrance today, and her lurkiness after returning from V/LA. Curious to hear her reads.

i still don't understand your mom progression.

i'm kinda wondering if scum would once again reverse this read and call attention to it given how scrutinized this read has been tho

also i don't really see the keyser-knowing-you're-town-thing

--

LOL what? In the post you linked, Momrangal shaded your biggest rock-solid townread that you vouched for (Bernie) and talked about how he's pushing you for a mislynch. T

his is one of the scummiest posts in the game.

yeah i remember that post as pinging me kinda bad; i don't remember if i made a thing about it at the time tho

--

@Skitter, I'll summarize thoughts on the Gamma lynch here since you asked. It didn't change my reads much. I still find Irrelephant/TheWorst scummy and

am thinking Momrangal is potentially a scum wagon that didn't go through.

But that's me saying that nothing rules out this existing scumread as opposed to developing a new one. I think Not_Mafia's and Gustavo's vote are both pretty bad but Gustavo's isn't bad enough to outweigh my stungun townread and Not_Mafia/Invisibility is in a null spot for me. I wish Errantparabola was made to take a stance and put a vote down.

yeah i was basically wondering if you thought the mom wagon was a wagon on scum.

nm's vote was bad but nm-like so i'm doubting if it's ai

gustavo's was meh but kinda makes sense with ihs personality, if that makes sense? like i think he's just wrong/bad town

--

So, you already know about father-son president pairs, but did you know that one grandson of a former president was elected? Benjamin Harrison was William Henry Harrison's grandson.

i was going to post that fact but forgot

[Irrelephant11]

Did he narrate things as town? Or interpret things in ways that don't make sense?

Narrate? Hm. Off the top of my head I remember him saying “this narrative makes sense” as scum a couple times about other people’s posts. Oh you asked “as town”. Maybe? This isn’t something I was looking for. I know he engaged people he disagreed with. He always had some level of “oh huh +1” spectating-feeing, regardless of alignment. I definitely can’t answer the second question though because i only read ISOs, so I don’t know if his interpretations fit contextual truths or not