Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
replaces into 104 page game, skips catchup to skim and goes for game impact
Alternating 9p he did it kinda all at once though it did take him many hours that day

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
here deadline is very soon on his replace so he crams and mostly just reads ISOs of wagons (because game impact is important)

BV what say yee?

Gustavo · Post Post #2231 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:43 am

In post 2222, Bernie Sanders wrote:2217 being directed to Gustavo

I’ll get to this tomorrow probably. Thank you

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2232 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:50 am

In post 2195, Gustavo wrote:
In post 2188, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 2185, Gustavo wrote:Ill only vote you/skittle/elephant today.
Scumread of me is new I think? Where’d that come from?

Where’d your other scumreads (for example on Mom) go?
You being an ass made me want to lynch you. Pretty sure I haven’t had a mom scum read today.

In post 2197, Irrelephant11 wrote:Oh you right, my bad. You scumread Keyser and Bernie earlier, though, I thought (based on 1678).

I have apologized for being over the top. I agree it was too much, and hope you can forgive me. At the same time, I think that's a bad reason to lynch someone. Do you scumread me?

Gustavo can you please respond to this, or maybe let me know that you're going to later? I'd like to know why you are no longer scumreading Bernie or Keyser, and whether or not you scumread me (& if so, why).

Nauci · Post Post #2233 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:00 am

In post 2229, Bernie Sanders wrote:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

In post 503, BlackVoid wrote:@insanity, fair enough. I kept trying to stay in the game because I wanted to make this big, pro-town catchup post full of in-depth reads and then go from there but it really never panned out. The longer it took, the more I felt like I was in this game long enough without posting so felt obligated to catchup. Also, yeah I shouldn't have replaced in. I thought I could handle a short game. What I didn't realize was how content-dense it was even with a low page count. I certainly apologize to both you guys and the town.

Are you my smurf account

In post 503, BlackVoid wrote:@insanity, fair enough. I kept trying to stay in the game because I wanted to make this big, pro-town catchup post full of in-depth reads and then go from there but it really never panned out. The longer it took, the more I felt like I was in this game long enough without posting so felt obligated to catchup. Also, yeah I shouldn't have replaced in. I thought I could handle a short game. What I didn't realize was how content-dense it was even with a low page count. I certainly apologize to both you guys and the town.

I ended up spending my catchup time filing human rights violation reports to the UN for an Egyptian activist though

I learned from that game that my catch ups should be incremental

Nauci · Post Post #2234 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:00 am

Oops I meant to link this

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10184714

Doesn't matter sorry for fluff posts

skitter30 · Post Post #2235 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:04 am

In post 2159, Nauci wrote:I didn't realize that the TW wagon fell apart long before I was even paranoid about ending the day too early and unvoting.

Skitter, Irrelephant, Errant, BS: Did you move because your <current vote target> is scummier than tw to you, or because you town read something(s) tw post?

i don't townread like anything he posted; i'm thinking of moving back there

i moved iirc because mom was around and acting scummy and there was more momentum for a mom wagon than a tw wagon

--

In post 2162, the worst wrote:it's really obvious gamestate stuff that I'm sure I've already talked about???

i was a conspicuous cw to mom here.
the fact that {you, skitter, mom} actively read like scumbuddies is like, a fucking honeypot fmpov.
you're also both weakly shading me, ignoring my reads and really clumsily positioning me for a mislynch

I am not easy to mislynch, even if I am kinda only half engaged with this game. sorry to disappoint you but i'm not going to roll over and take this shit.

again, you realize that me/nauci/mom is honestly an asinine understanding of the gamestate, right?

i pointed out why already a couple of days ago, but you're basically saying that scum!me and scum!nauci decided to team up to hard-bus our third partner (and at eod both of us were voting her and all three of us were off-wagon?)

and that we're teaming up to push you?

i really don't believe you think this tbh

pulling the 'obviouis cw to mom' is stupid when you shot down me making that argument yesterday. i'm paying attention to your reads, but i don't respect them because the trajectories make like no sense, and i keep telling you that

and i'm not weakly shading you; i'm actively telling you i want to lynch you; i'm ambivalent between you and mom but posts like this tilt me more towards you

huh i just realized something about the setup potentially that i don't want to share right now.

--

In post 2168, the worst wrote:I guess maybe I should have done my homework on how many damn essays this game would produce but like most of the list isn't spewing massive NAI wallposts rife with wonky questions and then having a tantrum because they're not being townread over it. :/

am i in this group?

--

In post 2187, Nauci wrote:
In post 2185, Gustavo wrote:Ill only vote you/skittle/elephant today.
I am out of snacks and would appreciate if you stopped summoning a craving for Skittles.

(I'll assume that you cased Skitter in the 10 pages I haven't read yet, for now.)

lol no that hasn't happened

--

In post 2208, Bernie Sanders wrote:I'm going to hard pull the BoP card and ask people to stop speccing PR and NK stuff anymore today, and I think I have to insist on mom today over duck. Nauci irrelephant I'm sorry but despite the meta thing I think my experience makes my judgment here more reliable.

i was probably going to swtich back to tw after this post, but eh sure. i'm really ambivalent between the two of them

--

In post 2210, Momrangal wrote:Ugh, been in a depression rutt sorry about that

i'm sorry, that sucks, i hope you feel better soon

--

In post 2213, Irrelephant11 wrote:ebwop UNVOTE: lol

if she doesn't post more and you don't revote her, this is an icky unvote

--

In post 2218, Shoshin wrote:I don't want this day ending until BV is caught up.

I'm no longer townreadnig him because his catch up is taking way longer than it should.

he gets busy irl sometimes with work. i don't think it's ai; i think he's catching up as he can

In post 2223, Shoshin wrote:
In post 2221, Errantparabola wrote:wasn't the original reason you townread him due to some really apparent meta read? Is the length of time that he's taking enough to invalidate that?
Nah, the original reason is because I liked the nuance in his posts. But Skitter brought up a valid point about how it's easier to fake that sort of posting when you're catching up rather than playing in real time, and now it feels like he's stalling by taking forever to catch up.

i don't think he's stalling.

--

In post 2224, Nauci wrote:Not majoring in anything (dropped out of Carnegie Mellon Computer Science ages ago).

I'm in a programming bootcamp 10 hours a day with 3-6 hours of homework, and I've been trying to catch up on sick days. Missing one day is like missing several weeks of a class at college

bleh, good luck

--

In post 2230, Bernie Sanders wrote:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
replaces into 104 page game, skips catchup to skim and goes for game impact
Alternating 9p he did it kinda all at once though it did take him many hours that day

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
here deadline is very soon on his replace so he crams and mostly just reads ISOs of wagons (because game impact is important)

BV what say yee?

i was in the second one; i'm going to point to newbie 1797. he replaced in early-mid day2 i think and we basically had someone who scum-claimed and i kept stalling hammer because i wanted bv to catch up; he didn't really over day2 and most of his day2 posts were saying 'i'll catch up tomorrow etc'. and i thought it was scum/partner-indicative. he caught up over the first week of day3 (he did also interact in real time a bit more there). we got into a walling 1v1 thing. i lynched him. he flipped town.

it took him like two irl weeks to fully catchup there.

i was also in a hydra with him (we didn't rep in; we started at the beginning of the game) and i was basically the main poster for i think most of day1 because he was too busy to play; he eventually caught up but if i wasn't posting he'd have done the 'catching up soon bit' thing too because he didn't really have time to play. we were town

Gustavo · Post Post #2236 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:29 am

In post 2224, Nauci wrote:Not majoring in anything (dropped out of Carnegie Mellon Computer Science ages ago).

I'm in a programming bootcamp 10 hours a day with 3-6 hours of homework, and I've been trying to catch up on sick days. Missing one day is like missing several weeks of a class at college

Question. If I had data exported in an xml format and wanted to use that data to create a program or better yet an app that would send reminders when things were due to be renewed.

What language would best work for that kind of thing?

Thank you

Gustavo · Post Post #2237 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:32 am

In post 2232, Irrelephant11 wrote:Gustavo can you please respond to this, or maybe let me know that you're going to later? I'd like to know why you are no longer scumreading Bernie or Keyser, and whether or not you scumread me (& if so, why).

I don’t town read you. I’m good with day 1 policy lynches.

Sho/skittles/nauci are my current scum reads. I don’t have good feelings about you or Bernie.

Though I’m kind of annoyed right now. Not a single person scum reads the scummiest person in the game yet nobody can explain what about this behavior makes him town.

BlackVoid · Post Post #2238 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:17 am

In post 1664, Irrelephant11 wrote:I’m estimating two scum on wagon and one off

Those of you off the wagon, since Gamma is town, which of the other four off the wagon seem most likely to be scum?

Why should a player arbitrarily restrict themselves to four people and try to figure out which of them is the scummiest? It seems like a nonsensical exercise when they could simply look at the whole game and figure out which of the players are the scummiest. How someone voted (or didn't vote) Gamma is definitely something that'll factor in but that's not a reason to pull a number you think is reasonable and scumhunt based on that number. This feels like you're trying to guide people into focusing on specific places when there's no pro-town reason to do it.

In post 1744, Errantparabola wrote:That's disappointing, because I was pretty confident that if I made mathdino metadive me he'd see i'm obvious town :>

I think in a vacuum, stuff like this is more likely to come from town. But I'm not sure this is justified considering you haven't posted much content at all. Can you explain what specifically you did here that's outside your scumrange? Have you played with MathDino? Making him meta-dive you implies that you haven't. That means it's applicable to any other player, not just Mathdino.

In post 2075, the worst wrote:gamestate is highly highly consistent with Nauci and skitter being scum with Mom. in retrospect vesides recognising that I shouldn't be lynched she hasn't done a lot. I think I was being stupid yday.

Can you go more into your theory on Nauci/Momrangal? Also, why does skitter spend the end of D1 trying to lynch Momrangal if they are scum together?

Irrelephant is switching his votes around a lot to mostly scumread players. He votes Momrangal, then Not_Mafia, then skitter, then TheWorst, then Momrangal again, then Keyser. I'm conflicted on what this means. His votes don't really make sense as it's hard to believe that he's changing his mind so often on people who clearly can't be scum together and is helping a lot of wagons form. On the other hand, I feel like scum would not want to change their votes so often. Something I'll look into when I read his town and scum games.

In post 2106, Keyser Söze wrote:All of my town reads scum read me which makes this a difficult game for me.

Minor towntell here.

In post 2108, Errantparabola wrote:It's very goal-oriented and that makes me think he's not playing with an agenda

How is Keyser's scumhunting goal-oriented? Regardless of his alignment, I got the opposite impression - that he's not going to a conclusion with it.

In post 2136, Keyser Söze wrote:@BV RE: 1224
If you compare the urgency/emotion of Gamma during the first half of the game vs his charged last stand, you should be able to notice a significant difference in him letting his guard down. I think it actually made him feel more real/genuine to me, actually concerned about the game. If he’d began the game with a little more zest he’d be alive right now. Vulnerability can be a town trait.

Okay, just to be clear, you're saying that Gamma "cracked" in a way that made you think he was town?

In post 2141, Shoshin wrote:I don't think it's helpful to discourage her efforts regardless of what you think about how she used the time. To be sure, it's not how I would have used 3 hours but to each their own. The important thing is that Nauci's probably town.

I'm not discouraging Nauci's efforts. I probably didn't phrase it well but I was pointing it out as something I thought was scummy. I agree that Nauci's probably town and I'm trying to solidify that read so I have a narrower pool but some of her stuff bothers me. I'll try and articulate it in a separate post.

@2152, Shoshin, I'll look and post my thoughts on that in a bit.

@2156, Nauci's points on Irrelephant are pretty dead on.

@Skitter, is TheWorst usually capable of reading you accurately? He doesn't seem to realize that you're town here and I'm trying to figure out whether it's alignment-indicative. How well/deeply does he normally read you?

In post 2200, Nauci wrote:I don't like self-meta as in I don't like when I read people's self meta, because it's super unreliable. But since not everyone shares that opinion, I provided some on myself, and with as many links as possible so it's something they can discover for themselves (made logistically easier) instead of taking my word for it.

I'm still not sure why you'd post it if you believe that it isn't a reliable way for others to read you anyways.

In post 2218, Shoshin wrote:I don't want this day ending until BV is caught up.

I'm no longer townreadnig him because his catch up is taking way longer than it should.

Interestingly, I'm pretty sure I spent 20+ hours on this catchup (actual time spent reading/writing). I don't think I've ever spent this much time catching up before but I wanted to do this very thoroughly because I found over my past few games that the more detail I go into in a game, the more accurate my reads tend to be.

Okay, finally caught up. Give me a bit to organize my thoughts.

Keyser Söze · Post Post #2239 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:29 am

You wrote: “Okay, just to be clear, you're saying that Gamma "cracked" in a way that made you think he was town?”

My thought: I don’t think the ‘cracking’ was strictly town indicative as such, but I would say it enabled/spurred him on to be more readable (which excited me).

Shoshin · Post Post #2240 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:30 am

Why is 2106 a town-tell, BV?

BlackVoid · Post Post #2241 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:30 am

In post 2230, Bernie Sanders wrote:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
replaces into 104 page game, skips catchup to skim and goes for game impact
Alternating 9p he did it kinda all at once though it did take him many hours that day

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
here deadline is very soon on his replace so he crams and mostly just reads ISOs of wagons (because game impact is important)

BV what say yee?

I've actually been thinking quite a bit on what's the best way to catchup and sort of experiment accordingly. There are some pretty insane ones that you missed:
Newbie 1797 - My first game with skitter. I actually took a really long time to catch up (around ten days). In the time that I was still catching up, a scum player (Drixx) was lynched and I had no stance on him at all. I caught up the next day and was able to turn-around the scumreads on me but eventually ended up getting mislynched. I knew I had to figure out a way to catchup that was going to be effective. I could do a wall with a list of my reads. But the problem with that is that I'd have to do a succint, easily, digestible post with a summary of my thoughts and I figured it would be challenging to remember everything I've read and post it in a way that's appealing to read. I also figured I could link to posts and comment on them (like in the game I linked above and in the most recent scumgame of mine). But it loses context and nobody other than skitter would read it. Eventually I decided on quote/response style because I can go in-depth then and there and also have context. It would lead to some ugly posting but I could eventually summarize. Alternating 9P and the recent Newbie game were much shorter/less dense games than this one so the overall time was shorter.

I went for immediate game-impact in Alchemist's game because deadline was close. Deadline was actually close in most games I was replacing into so there was a sense of urgency. The only game I remember replacing into recently without the deadline being close is my scumgame. Also, I really didn't think it would take this long. I expected to spend some 6-8 hours on it, not over 20. I'm not one to replace into a game and say I won't read it. Anyways, how I catchup is something I've been thinking and trying to experiment with for a while. Regardless, I'm done now.

BlackVoid · Post Post #2242 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:33 am

In post 2240, Shoshin wrote:Why is 2106 a town-tell, BV?

Because I think scum generally try to townread people who they can manipulate into townreading them. It could be unsuccessful of course but they can always change their reads. If a townie is tunneling a scum player, it's easy to tunnel back and get lost in a 1v1 or just play around them and work with other people. Town would be frustrated in that instance because their townreads are legitimately their townreads and if they can't work with them, that sucks. They can't just turn around and start working with their scumreads.

Shoshin · Post Post #2243 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:43 am

In post 2242, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 2240, Shoshin wrote:Why is 2106 a town-tell, BV?
Because I think scum generally try to townread people who they can manipulate into townreading them. It could be unsuccessful of course but they can always change their reads. If a townie is tunneling a scum player, it's easy to tunnel back and get lost in a 1v1 or just play around them and work with other people. Town would be frustrated in that instance because their townreads are legitimately their townreads and if they can't work with them, that sucks. They can't just turn around and start working with their scumreads.

I don't think that's really true. I agree that scum townread people for a reason, but what those reasons are vary - and one common reason (the one I suspect here) is that those players are either widely read as town or unlikely to be lynched.

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2244 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:48 am

In post 2134, BlackVoid wrote:The problem with this is that none of the points Momra made in favor of TheWorst are actually good ones. I think I touched on this before but do you actually agree with the points Momra is making about TheWorst?

Spoiler:

Mmm it seemed like her points here were mainly "hey give the worst a minute before you decide he's lurky scum". At the time I think I did agree that there was more pressure on the worst than I expected, so I thought Mom saying so was NAI at worst.

In post 2148, skitter30 wrote:also i don't really see the keyser-knowing-you're-town-thing

I was going to provide quotes but just ISO him. He starts with "I'm liking Irrelephant11's scumread of me" and then, with basically no further reasoning, townreads me with certainty for all of D1. D2, he really only mentions my alignment in 1835, during which he compliments me a lot, and is certain that everything I said D1 comes from town. All that said, this is pretty weak on re-read. Still, his "wOw have I been pocketed by Irrelephant???" D1 still doesn't sound genuine. I also didn't like this game day how he suggested that maybe he *does* scumread me when I said I would townread him if he did.

In post 2238, BlackVoid wrote:Why should a player arbitrarily restrict themselves to four people and try to figure out which of them is the scummiest? It seems like a nonsensical exercise when they could simply look at the whole game and figure out which of the players are the scummiest. How someone voted (or didn't vote) Gamma is definitely something that'll factor in but that's not a reason to pull a number you think is reasonable and scumhunt based on that number. This feels like you're trying to guide people into focusing on specific places when there's no pro-town reason to do it.

wowww you're reading a lot into this. I already have a clearer perspective about those of us who voted for Gamma, because I know I'm town. This lets me analyze the wagon better. Assuming there's scum both on and off wagon, I wanted to hear off-wagon players' perspectives about each other so as to have better ideas for both groups. You'll notice in my ISO that I've tried to actually pull attention back onto the wagon (which I was part of) multiple times this game day

BlackVoid · Post Post #2245 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:55 am

Current reads:

skitter30
Shoshin
Bernie Sanders
Gustavo

Nauci
Keyser Soze

Not_Mafia

the worst
Errantparabola
Irrelephant11
Momrangal

BlackVoid · Post Post #2246 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:58 am

I don't think there's any way Skitter, Shoshin, or Bernie are flipping scum here. I think most of that sentiment holds true for Gustavo as well but I'm wary because I was spectating a game where he was scum against Shoshin. He acted so confident that Shoshin was flipping scum to the point where continuous analysis was useless and I remember thinking he could be a conf-biased townie. But combined with Stungun's very town posting, I'm more willing to throw Gustavo in the townpile here.

Shoshin · Post Post #2247 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:00 am

Yeah, Gustavo's town. I agree with your reads except the townread on Key and the strong scumread on Irrelephant.

Can you talk to me about those?

BlackVoid · Post Post #2248 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:14 am

I really want to put Nauci in that group as well. The major impetus behind my townread there is that a lot of her points against Irrelephant resonate with me. I also felt like her reads make sense generally. The reason I don't feel as confident is that I have the feeling that Nauci is the type of player who can replicate most of what she does as town as scum so I have hard time finding anything and saying this is definitely town and there's no chance she's scum the way I can for Rask (who admits to having an average at best scumgame), or Shoshin or Skitter. There's a lot of effort, yeah. But there's also a lot of things I could see good scum doing that I don't think are as useful/helpful for town. Like that extensive voting analysis. I haven't checked the time-stamps but it seems like she's using it to cover the gaps in her content posts. I was surprised when Shoshin found it useful and wondered if I might be wrong because at least one town player clearly thought it was useful. But why spend so much time tracking down everyone's votes? How is it even useful this early? If anything I'd actually conceal that information and bring it out later when scum flip.

I also think she has an unusually confident townread on Keyser Soze. I remember her putting him in her townreads early on and not really re-evaluating him based on anything he said. (I need to double-check this though to see if I'm not missing anything). I remember thinking if I'm wrong on my scumreads and Nauci is actually scum, Keyser was someone to take a closer look at.

I also think she's overstating how much she and Skitter are mindmelding. They both have different playstyles and ways of approaching reads. Skitter is significantly more logic based for instance that I can't help wondering if she's scum buddying.

But the worries still seem somewhat speculatory and paranoia-based but I just don't feel confident locking her in as a townread and putting it aside.

BlackVoid · Post Post #2249 (ISO) » Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:16 am

In post 2247, Shoshin wrote:Yeah, Gustavo's town. I agree with your reads except the townread on Key and the strong scumread on Irrelephant.

Can you talk to me about those?

Yeah, I was going to go down the line but I want to cross-check with their previous games so give me a bit.