Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[skitter30]

ok i'm back

duckling when you're on lmk so we can talk about this

[skitter30]

skitter i actively am not convinced you're town why the hell would I mimick th tpr meta you specifically more than anyone else are familiar with.

this should have pinged you as a ~possibility~ numerous times after our last game together and yet you've just been blatantly pushing for my lynch. that's tpr hunting not scumhunting.

so you wanted me to pick on your pr tells but deliberately didn't play up that meta?

like that post i quoted i thought may have been a pr soft that i was supposed to pick up on but i wasn't sure if it was or if it was just an unfortunate word choice

so i made a deliberate point of acknowledging it, but you didn't like acknowledge that back or anything so i thought i was mistaken

if there were other tells i was meant to pick up on i didn't

[skitter30]

like i'm very confused about how you were approaching me here given jungle republic

[the worst]

correct I very very softly hinted at you early. you showed cognisance of those hints but then outright scumread me while acting like you were not even considering the possibility I was playing it up?? that doesn't smell like town!you so soon after d2 of jungle republic. :/

I'm at a job so can't really talk a lot

[Gustavo]

@Gustavo - what do you make of Mom's posts RE: TW/Gemini... Indicative of anti-associations?

I’ll let you know when I get time to read it.

[skitter30]

honestly, no, it didn't occur to me because this looked nothing like jungle republic; i'm really confused why you expected me to assume you were doing the same thing as jungle republic when you *weren't* behaving anything like jungle republic

like that post i quoted i saw but i wasn't sure if you were actually softing to me or if i was reading into things that weren't there. i also remember being paranoid that you were deliberately softing to me to get me to back off given that i couldn't actually talk about what i was seeing at that time

i didn't see anything after that and i forgot that post existed till like three hours ago

[skitter30]

like there you were cocky as fuck when you were an actual lynch target that you wouldn't actually get lynched given the seer thing which is where the soft happened

here you kinda slipped it in, in a way that only i would see, when i was pushing you; and i didn't see that sort of cockiness/surety anywhere

i'm honestly very confused about how you played this

and if you were deliberately trying to pr-soft to me idk why you played against the meta i'm familiar with

or why you'd expect me to pick up on those softs when you were playing against the meta i'm familiar with

and for that matter if you think i'm scum why you'd soft to me, or why you think i didn't just kill you given all of this

[skitter30]

i kinda need to rethink everything right now because i don't know how to read you

and if you're town i don't really know where scum is; i need to like re-orient my entire understanding of the gamestate

irregardless of this pr business your associatives with mom are gross and pushing me as a mom partner here is asinine and at best indicates that you completely don't understand the gamestate and at worst indicates that you were trying to tie me to a mom flip

[the worst]

I probably don't disagree. re-read and tell me where you're at. I'm wrong on some reads here so need to recalibrate myself.

[skitter30]

what are you not disagreeing with exactly?

i really don't trust this pr thing and i'm paranoid to a not-insignificant degree that you're using this to get towncred and to get me off your back

like ignoring the pr thing i still don't townread like anything you've done this entire game

like last time when you claimed everything kinda snapped into place and i was like 'oh your behavior till now makes an insane amount of sense' but i'm just not getting that here; i don't understand your mindset like at all

i also don't understand why you semi-claimed a result on ep today either; it feels more like you're announcing 'i did something claimable' than an actual result that you're sharing to clarify the gamestate

like i don't know how i'm supposed to be approaching your slot or how i'm supposed to read you because you muddied this read with an insane amount of wifom that i don't know how to resolve

[Nauci]

So, I'm treating Gustavo as 85%+ confirmed town, vca says it's very unlikely that Bernie, errantparabola, or Keyser are scum (if anyone wants this in more detail let me know), somewhat unlikely that it's Not_Mafia or the worst, and... that's most of it I think.

That leaves me with BV, skitter, and Nauci. skitter and Nauci are never a team so let's park this votemobile on VOTE: blackvoid, who has yet to vote since replacing in \o/

Also Shoshin said at one point that she was burnt out on mafia and I hope she sees this and decides to keep playing mafia because she was v fun imo

Agreed,

@Irrelephant

.

@Shoshin

, you were awesome.

Also agreed WRT Gus and BV. The rest, not so much. However, the number of town reads you have would be pretty strange if you were scum so +1 pt for House Townrrelephant. Oh and

2458

is interesting, though the formatting of the > >> line was tough to parse. However, I think Skitter started pushing for a momrangal lynch like, halfway into Day 1, which feels pretty absurd.

___

I don’t think VCA clears Keyser.

Yes I had my EoD1 vote on Mom...

This was ++points for House Town Soze and a large part of my townlean read. It was the vote that made the strugglewagon viable for a moment. If TW were to flip red Keyser would look really good, IMO.

___

i'm kinda waiting to see where tw is going to push today

i'm low-key thinking that he was pushing mom/me/nauci knowing that mom would flip red so that he could then push me/nauci today

i'm still *very* interested in having tw explain how he thinks that makes sense

or how he went from

gamestate is highly highly consistent with Nauci and skitter being scum with Mom

. in retrospect vesides recognising that I shouldn't be lynched she hasn't done a lot. I think I was being stupid yday.

to the following when pushed

@Bernie you may be overestimating how much I've put into this. it's independent scumreads with the gamestate softly supporting them as partners sometimes.

I'll re-read their ISOs when I have time later though.

Hall of fame post right here. People seem to have been extremely distracted by the bizarro "pr" breadloafing meta, but TW's refusal to answer questions, bullshitting joke posting, and inconsistent, unexplained reads are why I scumread him.

@The Worst

will you respond to Skitter's point? It's an objective point irrelevant to our alignments.

___

Take a look at the scummeta Nauci dug up on TW on D2

If TW is town here it is genius play. What a gambit. Play out your scum meta to perfection, but actually be the town PR to save the game

___

Skitter is town. Skitter is soooooooooo town.

Based off what?

You think it's plausible that Scum!Skitter would, beginning at page 18, push for a lynch on Momrangal, who was providing Day Chat to the scum PT, when Skitter is a pretty talkative person who would likely make great use of Daychat?

___

Scum Worst fake claimed gooncop in Open 719

Fake claim of some sort of copping role in a weird role madness game? TW planning his fake claiming

"We're not lynching me today" type shit like 5 times Oh hey in that same game he aggressively scumread a town who had his number and called votes on him gross and bussed the hell out of his teammate

Hilarious comment from meta discussion thread: "takes input well enough as town. walking noise machine as scum."

Okay my meta dive assessment of TW is that lots of fluffposting is NAI. Post count is NAI (he's racked up >300 as both alignments). Tends to be a bit more defensive/short tempered as scum, and contribute more sharp questions/observations as town (on top of fluff posts). I apologize for being unnecessarily rude to the duckling but I do not rescind my scumread (almost all non-scum-reads on TW are as a result of the claiming that he has clearly done as scum).

However, in light of current events, I think we have room to spend D3 hunting for Scum #3 unless something happens w/ TW's claim that isn't just noise.

[Nauci]

Oh and I didn't see crumbing of PR in his TPR games (didn't look at Jungle because Skitter has already mentioned/analyzed it) while skimming his many hundreds of posts.

[Nauci]

(However, he got murdered night 1 at JK and didn't have a chance in one of them. Sorry I need to stop forgetting these notes.)

[Gustavo]

You think it's plausible that Scum!Skitter would, beginning at page 18, push for a lynch on Momrangal, who was providing Day Chat to the scum PT, when Skitter is a pretty talkative person who would likely make great use of Daychat?

Anything is plausible in mafia.

[brassherald]

VC will officially come tomorrow morning along with the flavor for day start, a link to the day start, etc. I usually work 9-6 each day with 2 hours where I don't need to create billables, but today, I worked 8:30-7 and I had billables pretty much the entire time, except for those 10 minutes I went to get an iced coffee. I'm pretty much pooped.

[Gustavo]

Oh you’re a lawyer

[Bernie Sanders]

heh
was actually a little worried I mightve been wrong on mom or reading into nai even though she felt super scummy and was probably never lynching anyone else in that situation
but it kills pretty much any convincingness in saying so even if my say 80% is still something I'd vastly prefer than letting whatever else happen or essentially letting chips fall where they may

[Bernie Sanders]

not at my home computer until tomorrow to dig at today
first impressions wrt today is BV isn't actually as scummy as he first feels around that wagon
TW have to revisit, was definitely speccing as mom-partner but if so bus was kind of useless for him. feels somewhat a crapshoot and laziest way to sort it would be via the claim (setup spec of game this size and normal-like is sometimes easy) but by the same token getting the info to judge that is ehhh would have to weigh things
mom did probably have at least a bus vote (feel like mom wouldve even maybe just asked her partners to bus her at some point into the day given situation) and I think it could easily have been N_M or EP there instead of TW though tw did do partner chaining kind of thing with nauci skit and not answering severe criticism of that scumgrouping

could probably soft-solve the game (flowchart kinda decision tree aka mathdino style that wins) at minimum today with reasonably small groupings and haven't even yet comprehensively analysed associations

[Keyser Söze]

VOTE: Gustavo

Bad vote.

How can I make a good vote if I'm barely reading the game?

VOTE: Mom

Why did you vote Mom?

Did you decide to start reading the game?

Tell me why this isn’t a bus vote.

[skitter30]

momrangal (6)~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11, Gustavo,Not_Mafia

i think bussing votes are something like

tw > irrelephant > nm = errant > bernie > gustavo

in that order

i don't think bv's lack of vote yesterday is really that problematic tbh

[skitter30]

This was ++points for House Town Soze and a large part of my townlean read. It was the vote that made the strugglewagon viable for a moment. If TW were to flip red Keyser would look really good, IMO.

actually i kinda disagree with this; i think that's the kind of thing scum would try to highlight for distancing points, especially since the gamma wagon was all but inevitable at that point

[Nauci]

momrangal (6)~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11, Gustavo,Not_Mafia

i think bussing votes are something like

tw > irrelephant > nm = errant > bernie > gustavo

in that order

i don't think bv's lack of vote yesterday is really that problematic tbh

I'll agree here.

I missed his explanation post at the time but it seems plausible now.

Hmm you've given me new sources of paranoia on Keyser I guess, but I still lean town there. How do you feel about Irrelephant today? After reading his town game and skimming our scum game again, I think that while all of the individual posts he has made are within his scumrange, his overall progression of reads has been fairly town now that Mom has flipped, so I moved him into green.

[skitter30]

Oh and I didn't see crumbing of PR in his TPR games (didn't look at Jungle because Skitter has already mentioned/analyzed it) while skimming his many hundreds of posts.

so jungle republic is 7T :3Mafia : 2Wolves, with the wolves having an nk, and one of the townies is a seer, which is like a cop cept only for wolves, and tw rolled seer; seer is the only pr in that setup

so basically he purposefully acted lynchbaity day1 and i kinda tunneled on him.

he softed at some point day1 remarkably similarly to how he softed in open 720 i think (math's noir game), which he knew me + some other people in that game would probably pick up on

i noted the soft and tried to back down a bit since softing pr and all that jazz although i still thought he was remarkably scummy and i think i voted him post-soft anyways cuz i thought he was scum

day2 i start by casing someone, ap, who i thought was scum and tried to get tw to wagon him with me. tw incidentally had a guilty on ap and after i kept pushing him to wagon him with me decided to just claim and out the guilty

and i basically believed him right away because his behavior till that point made *a lot* of sense

he also cleared me + other people who would recognize the noir soft as being wolves given that he didn't die overnight, and he was right

check of day2 of the last jungle republic for reference if you're interested

[skitter30]

wrt irrelephant: i dislike his mom progression quite a bit actually; i don't like the day1 townread and i don't like the day2 scumread given the day1 townread; i don't like how he kept throwing his vote around day2; i can see that being a bussing vote as the mom wagon picked up steam

i don't like his hop-on and hop-off of the tw wagon today either tbh

[skitter30]

the thing with duckling is that i like basically always read him wrong but as tvt we eventually mindmeld but that hasn't really happened here like anywhere

i don't townread like anything he did, irregardless of the pr claim

and i think that chaining me to mom is gross and like i don't think his understanding of the gamestate is that bad? like i don't think he actually believes that tbh? especially since he softened that stance when pushed by me and bernie

but then i like don't think scum!him really like follows up a mom lynch with trying to lynch me; i'm pretty hard to mislynch and can get really stubborn and like can out-argue most people and i'd make sure everyone knows he gets flipped after me if he actually managed to push my mislynch through, and like he knows all of this

so i dont' know what he was getting at with chaining me to mom because i don't really think scum!him would try to lynch me after her, unless he was just trying to broadly shade and/or discredit me