Is it possible you could repost this with links? Anyway, I see what you’re saying about Taly. I think that’s what the worst was hinting at earlier. I think I glossed over that the first time I read it because it was so subtle. Also Taly suggesting that it was town amongst the worst, Sajj, Reality who was responsible for the underground makes no sense, nor does the bs about Creature piling up votes on his wagon to create WIFOM. That was proof positive that Taly was lying about Creature meta because scum!Creature would never do anything like that.In post 4692, Shoshin wrote:@Nancy
You said earlier that Taly doesn't make sense with Creature. But in 681 he suggested moving away from the Creature lynch despite voting Creature early on D1. That's the most common pattern that scum fall into when distancing early in the game. They look for ways to justify another wagon, wait for town to start the wagon, and then hop on when safe to do so.
At the same time that Taly hints at town Creature, Random calls Creature lynchbait. The sequence of votes that follow are interesting.
Joral agrees with Taly/Random and votes Renais in 700.
Wheme responds by voting Creature in 710.
I vote Creature after Wheme in 721.
These are both town votes preventing a counterwagon on town Renais. There's no other way to read these votes. If I were scum, I could have joined Joral on Renais.
Random tries directing my attention to Renais in 739. The lynch is building on Creature but Random wants my attention on Renais. What's Random's intent? If I had voted Renais, do you think Random would have joined me? If not, what was the point of asking that question in the first place?
Renais could have been a counterwagon to the Creature lynch if I joined it. Wheme used his vote loosely. The scum would have joined the mislynch. Joral was already voting. Renais was playing like lynhbait. But instead, I say that Renais isn't who I want lynched. And I stick on Creature. That's a big town-tell for me.
The counterwagon on Renais isn't going anywhere, so Random suddenly starts pushing Nico in 753. Why the sudden turn onto Nico? Nico's lurking, but that doesn't make Nico scummier than Renais or TPF. But that's where Random ends up turning. What's his intent?
Nico doesn't go anywhere, so Random votes TPF in 791. You follow him in 793. That's understandable, because TPF is scum, but it's also terrible timing. We need votes consolidating on Creature, yet Random is still looking for another lynch. Why?
It doesn't take much to see that Random doesn't want to lynch Creature. He looks for mislynches on Renais & Nico. That doesn't work, so he turns to TPF. His least-preferred lynch is Creature, the scum redirector and 1-shot strongman, so when he can't get a mislynch, he looks for a counterwagon on a worthless scum role.
Random never votes Creature.
The day ends in a no lynch.
This is why I've been suspecting Random the entire game.
I still don't see how this sequence ever comes from town. It's too calculated. Yes, town sometimes push mislynches, but they do so cluelessly. Town don't look for lynches on every viable mislynch (Renais & Nico) before eventually pushing a lynch on less valuable scum (identity cop vs redirector/strongman) when there's an obvious scum in front of their eyes (Creature). They also don't call that obvious scum "lynchbait" while pushing lynches on actual lynchbait (Renais & Nico) - there's a massive inconsistency in the way Random approaches that.
If I'm wrong about this sequence events, please explain. I don't want to make the wrong decision here.
Hmmmm . . . I was going to say that the worst made a huge mistake gladiating Wisdom over random but maybe not. I will be watching Taly very closely in the future, he’s very sly.
Random suspiciously avoiding my request for a scumchat link is NAGL. Yeah, maybe Wisdom is right and I should just vote him?
