Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Gustavo]

Lack of votes is antitown

[BlackVoid]

If me, skitter, Bernie, and Gustavo can all trust each other, the odds of this game being a town win go way up.

Outside of that I'm not really sure which of the other six players are scum. I do think Not_Mafia is the likeliest to be town among them but it's not as solid as my other reads. That still leaves about five people that I need to sort through: Nauci, Irrelephant, Keyser Soze, TheWorst, ErrantP.

[Gustavo]

I don’t think I can trust you. I actually think you’re a good chance at being mom’s partner.

[Keyser Söze]

If me, skitter, Bernie, and Gustavo can all trust each other, the odds of this game being a town win go way up.

Outside of that I'm not really sure which of the other six players are scum. I do think Not_Mafia is the likeliest to be town among them but it's not as solid as my other reads. That still leaves about five people that I need to sort through: Nauci, Irrelephant, Keyser Soze, TheWorst, ErrantP.

You trust Not Mafia more than me?

I could understand Gustavo being higher than me (due to Shoshin saying he protected Gustavo, and we had no NK on N1)... but this just takes the biscuit Do you know Not Mafia is town? Because he should be in everyone's null zone right now.

I think you should present your reads using that graph Errant designed

[BlackVoid]

I don’t think I can trust you. I actually think you’re a good chance at being mom’s partner.

You should. I've already put much more into this game than I've ever done as scum over whole games. As scum, I would almost certainly have voted Momrangal early on because looking good is more important than being right. I was unsure between Momrangal and TheWorst and really wanted to make sure I made the right decision there. I would

never

have made a post like 2423 as scum. I wouldn't spend a whole catchup pushing my partner and then flush any potential towncred I could get down the toilet by backing off at the last moment. I also didn't "disappear." I went to sleep and when I woke up, I found out N_M hammered. I don't think I can convince you that not voting until you're ready isn't anti-town but since you know for a fact, I hold onto my vote, you should see that it isn't alignment indicative.

[BlackVoid]

If me, skitter, Bernie, and Gustavo can all trust each other, the odds of this game being a town win go way up.

Outside of that I'm not really sure which of the other six players are scum. I do think Not_Mafia is the likeliest to be town among them but it's not as solid as my other reads. That still leaves about five people that I need to sort through: Nauci, Irrelephant, Keyser Soze, TheWorst, ErrantP.

You trust Not Mafia more than me?

I could understand Gustavo being higher than me (due to Shoshin saying he protected Gustavo, and we had no NK on N1)... but this just takes the biscuit Do you know Not Mafia is town? Because he should be in everyone's null zone right now.

I think you should present your reads using that graph Errant designed

You really should read the thread more closely. I explained my Not_Mafia townread over the last page. You can't arbitrarily claim that people should be in everyone's null zone. The whole point of this game is to figure out alignments. When you can't do it through their content (such as with Not_Mafia), you do it through how they interacted with flipped scum, what their predecessors did, and how flipped scum interacted with them. It's a fact that Momrangal started off making a hard push on Invis. It's a fact that N_M hammered Momrangal before she could draw out a claim. Those are points indicating slight town.

My read on you is actually pending until I read through your ISO with flip in mind. I'm not yet sure whether I trust you more than N_M. I'll figure out an order to my reads once I read through everyone and make a list.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm defending Not_Mafia for good reasons. You haven't commented on those reasons. You're throwing shade AT the fact that I'm defending him to try to make me look suspicious but haven't actually engaged me on WHY I'm defending him. I'm unsure on TheWorst. I'm still thinking it over. Where did he claim to have a result on me? I'm pretty sure he's not waiting for any response from me. He's never tried to honestly engage me so far besides silly responses like "lol" or "I hate walls."

Responding in backwards order:
-EP has made it very clear that the worst set out to investigate you somehow
--the worst started the day with something like "ooOOOooOOoo I had a good night last night~~~"
---You have said nothing about this despite it being like the biggest news

-Your reasons are (tell me if I'm misrepping/missing something):
--"I feel like he wouldn't quickhammer in a way that's suboptimal for his team [like hammering before claims]."
---If NM is scum, he rescued Mom from having to fakeclaim in a way that could suggest something about the setup and/or she was just gonna claim vt; also, *everyone* knew tw was crumbing PR, so what would NM have to gain from waiting? rhetorical question; nothing.
--"Momra reluctantly backed off of her Invisibility push after Shoshin pushed her hard... suggests that Not_Mafia is town."
---Meh, if Mom is on a team with Invis/NM her goal was not likely ever to actually lynch him, so Mom gets townpoints for herself for having her reads progress & townpoints for Invisslot from Shoshin by letting Shoshin defending it. I don't see what about this suggests town NM,

except

for their vote parking that at I included in the vca at the beginning of the day that *you found ridiculous* ("ridiculous" being a quote) and then didn't respond to it when I went in depth as you requested. Honestly I'm not sure what there is to townread about you rn, anyone who has you +null is confusing to me (even as you're not aligned with tw imo, so we'll see how that bears out)

Also you not voting as town sounds like a personal problem that I'll let you fix on your own

If me, skitter, Bernie, and Gustavo can all trust each other, the odds of this game being a town win go way up.

L O L

sticking your name in with the three most widely townread players is hilarious and no one can tell me otherwise

@Bernie what do you think about blackvoid?

[Keyser Söze]

You really should read the thread more closely. I explained my Not_Mafia townread over the last page. You can't arbitrarily claim that people should be in everyone's null zone. The whole point of this game is to figure out alignments. When you can't do it through their content (such as with Not_Mafia), you do it through how they interacted with flipped scum, what their predecessors did, and how flipped scum interacted with them. It's a fact that Momrangal started off making a hard push on Invis. It's a fact that N_M hammered Momrangal before she could draw out a claim. Those are points indicating slight town.

My read on you is actually pending until I read through your ISO with flip in mind. I'm not yet sure whether I trust you more than N_M. I'll figure out an order to my reads once I read through everyone and make a list.

Apologies - I forgot it was you who made post #2764 too. Tbh you're one of the few (if not only) players presenting N_M as town.

[BlackVoid]

1. You can find it hilarious all you like but I have a pretty hard time seeing any of those three as scum and I also have a hard time getting a good townread out of the remaining players because none of you have thought processes that I can easily follow.

If NM is scum, he rescued Mom from having to fakeclaim in a way that could suggest something about the setup and/or she was just gonna claim vt; also, *everyone* knew tw was crumbing PR, so what would NM have to gain from waiting? rhetorical question; nothing.

2. This is actually not true. If Momrangal didn't want to give away anything about the scum roles, she could have fake-claimed a role that gives us no information. Why on earth would N_M "rescue" Momrangal from fake-claiming? The whole point when you're run up as scum is to either prevent your lynch that day or draw out a counterclaim by fake-claiming. Scum very, very rarely ever claim VT at L-1 and that's a pretty bad move. If he let Momrangal fake-claim, and attention turned towards TheWorst, he would at least have another solid claim. Then it would be a toss-up which one is less believable.

3. Can you quote where exactly either Errant or TheWorst said that TheWorst had a result on me?

[Gustavo]

I don’t think I can trust you. I actually think you’re a good chance at being mom’s partner.

You should. I've already put much more into this game than I've ever done as scum over whole games. As scum, I would almost certainly have voted Momrangal early on because looking good is more important than being right. I was unsure between Momrangal and TheWorst and really wanted to make sure I made the right decision there. I would

never

have made a post like 2423 as scum. I wouldn't spend a whole catchup pushing my partner and then flush any potential towncred I could get down the toilet by backing off at the last moment. I also didn't "disappear." I went to sleep and when I woke up, I found out N_M hammered. I don't think I can convince you that not voting until you're ready isn't anti-town but since you know for a fact, I hold onto my vote, you should see that it isn't alignment indicative.

Reading the posts, I really don’t feel this is true. I honestly think you were torn about bussing and was hoping the wagon shifted. You never expected me to vote which set up for a quick hammer.

[BlackVoid]

I don’t think I can trust you. I actually think you’re a good chance at being mom’s partner.

You should. I've already put much more into this game than I've ever done as scum over whole games. As scum, I would almost certainly have voted Momrangal early on because looking good is more important than being right. I was unsure between Momrangal and TheWorst and really wanted to make sure I made the right decision there. I would

never

have made a post like 2423 as scum. I wouldn't spend a whole catchup pushing my partner and then flush any potential towncred I could get down the toilet by backing off at the last moment. I also didn't "disappear." I went to sleep and when I woke up, I found out N_M hammered. I don't think I can convince you that not voting until you're ready isn't anti-town but since you know for a fact, I hold onto my vote, you should see that it isn't alignment indicative.

Reading the posts, I really don’t feel this is true. I honestly think you were torn about bussing and was hoping the wagon shifted. You never expected me to vote which set up for a quick hammer.

You already voted before I made that post.

[Irrelephant11]

1. You can find it hilarious all you like but I have a pretty hard time seeing any of those three as scum and I also have a hard time getting a good townread out of the remaining players because none of you have thought processes that I can easily follow.

If NM is scum, he rescued Mom from having to fakeclaim in a way that could suggest something about the setup and/or she was just gonna claim vt; also, *everyone* knew tw was crumbing PR, so what would NM have to gain from waiting? rhetorical question; nothing.

2. This is actually not true. If Momrangal didn't want to give away anything about the scum roles, she could have fake-claimed a role that gives us no information. Why on earth would N_M "rescue" Momrangal from fake-claiming? The whole point when you're run up as scum is to either prevent your lynch that day or draw out a counterclaim by fake-claiming. Scum very, very rarely ever claim VT at L-1 and that's a pretty bad move. If he let Momrangal fake-claim, and attention turned towards TheWorst, he would at least have another solid claim. Then it would be a toss-up which one is less believable.

3. Can you quote where exactly either Errant or TheWorst said that TheWorst had a result on me?

Okay re:your reads, but like, it's a scummy way to present yourself as on par with those three players ("

us

four can win it!")

Regardless, NM following his town meta and quickhammering gets him towncred (look at you, giving him towncred rn) when the lynch was inevitable anyway

Yes:

Okay:

N1: I neighborized worst
D2: The thread was made.
N2: The thread was unlocked.

Post order (we joked around a lot, those things are omitted. and posts are heavily paraphrased for obv reasons)

EP: I know youre a PR
EP: What are your reads, do you still scumread Nauci & Skitter
TW: Nauci & Skitter are probably partners with mom, i'm not surprised at the flip
TW: I'm probably going to be looking at BV tonight
EP: So you're a cop? why don't you investigate one of your scumreads
TW: It makes more sense to investigate at the top of the lynchpool <-- (basically claiming cop or something simiilar??)
TW: BV is a nullread and most likely wont be night killed
EP: I still dont think it makes sense not to investigate a scumread
TW: I'd always choose someone like this regardless of who i scumread
EP: did you have a result on N1
TW: maybe you'll find out eventually
EP: Why not investigate me instead of BV
TW: no thanks

Also 2655 and I guess you somehow missed

Wow so TW has a guilty on BV?

[Gustavo]

Oh so I had. I still don’t see why you didn’t vote or want to vote there. Especially with the comment you made today

[Gustavo]

Has tw claimed his results yet?

[Irrelephant11]

No

[Gustavo]

VOTE: the worst

[Gustavo]

Claim results and I’ll unvote.

[BlackVoid]

It isn't scummy because "us four" can in fact make a win much more likely. POE is a pretty strong tool at finding scum. If I can get all four of us to trust each other, then yes, odds of winning go up because it narrows down the scum. Once we have another scumflip, we have more information to rule out more people etc.

N_M hasn't got any towncred except from me. He was a leading wagon with four votes. You also skated over the fact that that scum rarely if ever claim VT and quickhammering a partner because "they were going to claim VT" makes zero sense.

I think I misread that. That does imply he has a result on me. Not sure what "response" you are expecting though. If he claims a guilty, I'll know he's scum and bury him. Otherwise, it doesn't really affect my read much. When he actually full-claims, I'll work it into my read. He was actually crumbing D1 that I should be investigated though so I can believe his choice of target.

[Keyser Söze]

The worst loves this though:

hedonistic at the expensive if the player list?
me?
nevah~ :3

I bet he’ll claim at the end of the weekend.

[BlackVoid]

Oh so I had. I still don’t see why you didn’t vote or want to vote there. Especially with the comment you made today

Why I didn't vote anyone at the end of D2? I planned on waking up, reading through both Momrangal's and TheWorst's ISOs one last time and either put down a vote on TheWorst or declare intent on Momrangal. I just wanted that extra time to think about which way I wanted to go. I wasn't in the game very long so I felt if I could talk to people and play in real time, I could get some better insights into the game. That's why I asked Rask to elaborate and tell me why TheWorst was a bad lynch from his POV.

Why was I leaning towards TheWorst in that post? I touched on this but I really hated how when Momrangal pushed Bernie, TheWorst said that her posts were great and that he could totally relate here.

794 and surrounding were solid af fmpov. like I am not a fan of how I was positioned as scum for my predecessor and irl busyness here. it crossed my mind several times that I was an easy af push for scum to hide behind, and I found Mom seeing things exactly the same way.

either she's town or has me pocketed hard but I'm not sure what scum!Mom's method is in WKing me here

^ This one. In 794, Momrangal was actually shading Bernie and saying that Bernie's push on TheWorst was scummy. But TheWorst had Bernie as his strongest townread. It didn't make sense. It looked like he was taking advantage of a townie incorrectly townreading him. Obviously, that interpretation was wrong and Momra was scum. But not knowing their alignments, it looked like that at the time so I thought TheWorst may be a better lynch.

[Irrelephant11]

Yes it is scummy because if three town players form a townbloc with a scum player, it becomes v v v hard for town to lynch scum. I feel like this is obvious??

Re:skated over
My point there was "he saved mom the trouble of coming up with fakeclaim (perhaps he knew she would be unavailable to do so anyway), or if she was going to claim vt anyway then he knew that and could just hammer for towncred"
I see that your point also includes "well why not wait for Mom to fakeclaim and then out tw's cc?" to which my response is both "he already knew tw was pr" and "why would tw counterclaim mom's random probably-unrelated-to-his-pr fakeclaim?"
I know you're the only one giving him towncred, and I think you should stop doing that. His actions don't deserve towncred because waiting for a claim doesn't help him as scum, and lolhammering is what he always does as his NAI meta. The only reason I can see to give him towncred is that you somehow know he's town, or based on my vca, which

you

are now skating over how you thought it was ridiculous and still haven't responded to the expanded version you asked for

@all let me know if this tunneling is becoming unhelpful, but I don't want to let up especially since we're probably gonna get some info on BV later so this becomes useful either way (by either cementing tw's result or making it look questionable)

[BlackVoid]

TheWorst wouldn't counterclaim Momrangal.

Look, here's what was going to happen if he didn't quickhammer and someone declared intent: Momrangal would claim whatever she claims, probably a powerful PR.

Then either
scenario A)
1. People will be reluctant to lynch Momrangal and run up TheWorst and he claims. Then we come back and lynch Momrangal (good for scum because they then know his exact role).
2. People find Momrangal's claim to be more credible and lynch somebody else either TheWorst or someone entirely different (good for scum because they avoided a scum lynch).

scenario B)
A townie counterclaims Momrangal's role and Momrangal is lynched. (Good for scum because they have now outed another town PR).

Every way you look at it, Not_Mafia LITERALLY NOT POSTING AT ALL THAT NIGHT would have been more beneficial to scum than his quickhammer. He didn't have to do anything to get these benefits for the scumteam.

How do you not see this and continue to brush it under the rug with "you know Not_Mafia is town?" That feels like you're trying to set up for suspicion on me after he flips town which you know he will.

"lolhammering is what he always does as his NAI meta" is ignoring the context here. I linked a game earlier that shows there actually is a method to his madness. He's not just going to lolhammer a buddy randomly because "lol."

[Irrelephant11]

Okay, sure, NM voting for Mom is townier than NM staying away from Mom's lynch, in the situation that Mom was indeed going to claim in those last 36 hours, which she probably wouldn't because she has mentioned many times how busy she is on weekends. Maybe this is a point in NM's favor. Maybe.

I'm not setting you up for anything, I'm trying to discern why you're so confident in this townread of Not_Mafia in a gamestate that leaves him in everyone else's PoE.

What do you think of my vca? What do you think of Mom and Invis sitting on each other beginning of D1?

[Gustavo]

Nm voting mom is townie than bv being wishy washy about mom

[Gustavo]

Mom/invis also doesn’t look like scum interaction