Newbie 1881 - Game Over

[Flicker]

@flicker in response to your thing, please don't go ahead and lynch me. we still have time to scumhunt.

Okay, that doesn't really answer my question, though. Like, say Trinity was the one who claimed instead of you, do we go ahead and lynch Trinity to avoid running someone else up and getting another claim?

This post is specifically what I'm referencing from my first newbie game, if that helps at all:

There is another reason now why we should not lynch anyone but you: You claimed vanilla townie. If we bring other people to L-1 and a claim we just make PR hunting easier for scum.

(I asked NK15 to elaborate on this, too, and IIRC he never did, probably because we got bogged down in D2 massclaiming. Oh, Newbie 1863. )

[Micc]

Votecount 1.20

OkaPoka (3) -

IcemanCh, WhyMafia, Formerfish

TrinityNZ (2) -

OkaPoka, Flicker

Formerfish (1) -

Quick

Not Voting (3) -

Eragon, TrinityNZ, nancy

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2018-07-23 11:49:57).

Prodding Formerfish.

[Formerfish]

Why am I being prodded short of 48 hrs?

[OkaPoka]

@flicker in response to your thing, please don't go ahead and lynch me. we still have time to scumhunt.

Okay, that doesn't really answer my question, though. Like, say Trinity was the one who claimed instead of you, do we go ahead and lynch Trinity to avoid running someone else up and getting another claim?

This post is specifically what I'm referencing from my first newbie game, if that helps at all:

There is another reason now why we should not lynch anyone but you: You claimed vanilla townie. If we bring other people to L-1 and a claim we just make PR hunting easier for scum.

(I asked NK15 to elaborate on this, too, and IIRC he never did, probably because we got bogged down in D2 massclaiming. Oh, Newbie 1863. )

if we still have time i think its worth to continue to scumhunt and run people up if we find someone who becomes more scummy than trinity if that answers your question.

[Flicker]

So, you're not worried about helping scum PR-hunt?

[OkaPoka]

risk v reward

find it unlikely that we are going to get someone scummier than trinity tho

[Flicker]

Why am I being prodded short of 48 hrs?

Subject: Newbie Game Queue (Players and Mods)

Deadlines have been updated to 10 days for Day 1, and 7 days for all further Day phases. Prodding now occurs after 30 hours of inactivity. (7/2/2018)

[TrinityNZ]

You left out the last part: please talk about who you think is mafia right now and why.

That’s hard, I really don’t know right now, I’m confused.

It's okay if you're not sure. Just give it your best shot.

Here is everyone alive:
IcemanCh
Eragon
WhyMafia
Flicker
TrinityNZ
Quick
OkaPoka
Formerfish
nancy

Start with which people you think are town, then put them aside, and look at who is left.

You don't have to have a super confident scumread or anything like that. But from your perspective, if you're town, you absolutely need to lynch someone today, and you want that person to be mafia. So you have to figure this out. Who do you want to lynch?

This is my order from town to mafia:

Nancy
IceMan
OkaPoka
WhyMafia
Flicker
Formerfish
Quick
Eragon

I could lynch any of the last three.

[OkaPoka]

Could you expand more on your reads? Particularly the scum reads/last 3.

[WhyMafia]

So Trinity. Is the main reason you switched on Oka is because of his relentless push on you? That he wouldn't risk it as town? Because by that logic, as scum, couldn't he do that, and undertake that defense? That's just WIFOM (Hope I used that correctly ;P ). Knowing that you'd town read him bc no scum would be that brazen sounds like a wonderful idea for scum to just do it anyway

[WhyMafia]

Upon re-reading I'm slightly more hesitant on Iceman now. The thing that casts doubt for me is his repeated claims that people are mis-interpreting by his Lynch the IC by Day 3 statement at the beginning. He clearly states here -

but do you policy lynch ics?

Trying to pull up a bunch of other stuff but I'll answer this now since you've asked twice.

On D1 or D2 no. After that I think you should yes. Here is why.

As a town player and IC is just a more experienced player to help find scum. To me they only have a slight advantage although most of that is lost because new players can be a pain in the ass.

As a scum player they are like a super heros. They can easily sway new players into confusion and mislynches. There is a much bigger advantage to a scum!IC.

I also feel like scum is going to night kill the active/most experienced players first. So it brings in the whole..... why is the IC still alive after a few nights?


I just think that a town!IC makes LYLO super difficult.


Of course if we have a strong read on someone other then the IC we would lynch them instead.

Tldr..... If we have no super strong roads then IC should be lynched before LYLO.

that he advocates a policy Lynch on the IC contingent on us having no strong opinion on anyone.

I thought this was a towny bc of his frankness, and willingness to put himself out there despite nancy appearing solid town at that point. He also backed up what he said, and I can see how he would be thinking what he thought. I dislike 1072 bc idk it gives me bad feelings. Like, it feels so off, and it feels like he's trying to retract that statement.

Overall, I like his pushes and his frankness. When he describes how someone/something is anti-town and calls them out for it, it makes me want to trust him more. He says stuff and goes after people that do fishy things, regardless of who they are, and I like that. I liked his interactions with Quick, and I liked 1115 because it directly represents how I felt about the unvote, I just didn't really know how to put it into words.

[WhyMafia]

Iceman is one of my strongest town reads though. I thought about post 1072 a bit more, and thought about what he could've been thinking; and I don't really see the scum motivation behind it

[OkaPoka]

unless 1072 was backpedaling and misrepping his own statement? I mean his first post on policylynching the IC wasn't we should scrutinize the IC it was policy lynch day before lylo if we have no strong reads.

[nancy]

@Everyone, but especially experienced MS players

What do you think about the above? Both in general, and in relation to Oka in this game?

Yeah, I was thinking about this earlier, and was like, I really don't want to push in too many more places today because I don't want to risk outing a PR, but um, that's not a real reason not to just lynch someone because they claimed VT. You lynch who you think has the highest chance of flipping mafia. Generally speaking you don't want to sacrifice dayplay for night play.

There's a limit to this, like if you run 3 people up near the end of a dayphase and don't like how the lynch felt on any of them, and they all claimed, you probably want to be super super super certain that someone out those 3 is mafia, or super super certain that all 3 of them are town, before you push another person to claim. At that point it's probably optimal to just lynch inside the slots that have claimed.

@nancy

I geniunely don't know what you want from me at this point, but in the interest of not spending a lot of time on anything, I won't go over the rest of your big, spoilered post point by point.

Um? I don't understand what you mean by don't know what I want from you. I haven't asked for you anything?

I had a sort of half-baked theory about scum partners, so I partly voted to test out the reactions to that, but I didn't get the reactions I was expecting, and WhyMafia did a couple things that close to 100% disprove my theory (I won't say what it was now, maybe on another game day or in the post-game), so there's that.

You should talk about this as soon as you've gotten from it what you wanted to. Don't wait until post-game.

What is the rule of 3?

You can read my most recent newbie scum game here: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=23817

I have already looked at all of your games. You would know this if you had been reading my posts. >:[

Rule of 3 is the idea that when a scum player groups 3 people together they are disproportionately likely to include a partner in that grouping.

[OkaPoka]

How would you characterize my scum vs town game? Sorry if you've said this before, maybe I missed it or forgot it.

[OkaPoka]

Also is there evidence to this rule of 3 thing? If a scum player groups 3 town players would that mean there is a chance of their partner being in there too?

[Flicker]

Um? I don't understand what you mean by don't know what I want from you. I haven't asked for you anything?

Feels like you still wanted more from me in 897 (which was the post I was referencing).

I had a sort of half-baked theory about scum partners, so I partly voted to test out the reactions to that, but I didn't get the reactions I was expecting, and WhyMafia did a couple things that close to 100% disprove my theory (I won't say what it was now, maybe on another game day or in the post-game), so there's that.

You should talk about this as soon as you've gotten from it what you wanted to. Don't wait until post-game.

Okay, I won't wait until post-game, but I'd rather wait until WhyMafia, the player I think could be his scum partner, or another player flips scum before I talk about it. Like, I'm pretty sure it's a dead theory, but on the off-chance I'm right I don't want to risk them changing their behavior.

[nancy]

@Trinity I dunno what to say honestly, it's not really good enough to just list names in an order, you have to be able to talk about why those names are ordered the way they are. Like, you were able to talk about FF and Oka at least to some degree, that fact that you're completely unable to articulate any form of a scumread on anyone else at this point is super super worrying. You've also got FF in your lynch pool which is ???, you have stated a townread on FF, please explain how that makes sense.

I was planning on voting Oka this morning when I woke up but after Trinity's recent posting I'm kinda torn. In the world where Trinity is mafia then her flip would clear Oka and that's not a small thing. In the world where she's town then I want to lynch Oka pretty much always but my townread on her isn't as strong as it was and if I think there's a realistic chance of Trinity being mafia then I'm kind of inclined to give that read more time to develop and just put Trinity/Oka aside until tomorrow.

I think I want to lynch Quick the most at this point. There's just so much scum motivation in the way that he's been treating the Oka wagon and I've been mostly turning a blind eye to it but I don't think I can anymore. He's also just not doing anything this game and generally speaking that's never a bad type of slot to lynch on day 1.

@Everyone please share with the class who you would be willing to lynch today.

I think my lynch preference for today is Quick->Eragon->FF.

[Quick]

Trinity is creeping up on me as being Scummy now. It seems whenever Trinity is asked something, they completely disappear. Very suspect.

@nancy, what do you mean when you say I am not doing anything? I feel like I have been pushing my SRs just fine, offering my reasoning on why I TR the people I do. What do you want from me?

Point to a question that Trinity hasn't answered and explain why activity is alignment indicative.

It's not my point that Trinity isn't answering questions, it's when. Though Flicker has the same problem IIRC, I believe Flicker is just busy with irl things. It's a kind of soft tell I have for people. IDK though, I could be misremembering and if I am it's because I have difficulty remembering what happens 3-4 days ago. I've played more games with like 48/36 hour Day Phases so that's sorta the benchmark I try to use. I know it's wrong to do that but I can't help it. 72/24 is actually my preferred in case you care.

I don't think you have been doing those things. Your push on FF, moreover, is basically just you saying that FF is full of shit and calling him scummy.

I've pushed multiple people and still am. I am poking things, I guess you can't see it for some reason.

[nancy]

How would you characterize my scum vs town game? Sorry if you've said this before, maybe I missed it or forgot it.

The biggest difference was probably your activity levels. The biggest difference between the town games that I read and this game is that your reads actually made sense and your process wasn't a complete nightmare in those games the way it is here.

Also is there evidence to this rule of 3 thing? If a scum player groups 3 town players would that mean there is a chance of their partner being in there too?

Who knows. And... what? If a scum player groups 3 town players... they're... town... and town can't be a mafia partner...

[nancy]

I've pushed multiple people and still am. I am poking things, I guess you can't see it for some reason.

I've read your ISO multiple times.

[TrinityNZ]

So Trinity. Is the main reason you switched on Oka is because of his relentless push on you? That he wouldn't risk it as town? Because by that logic, as scum, couldn't he do that, and undertake that defense? That's just WIFOM (Hope I used that correctly ;P ). Knowing that you'd town read him bc no scum would be that brazen sounds like a wonderful idea for scum to just do it anyway

Yes, you could be right, this is one reason why I’m feeling so confused right now, the longer this day goes on, the more confused I get.

[Quick]

@Flicker,

If you had to give the difference(s) between your Town game and Scum game, what would they be?

I've only rolled scum once (in Micro 805.1), but I wouldn't say I really got the opportunity to

play

as scum, so I don't know [what the difference is].

Why do you ask?

@Quick

I still want an answer to this.

I wanted to know because you talked about your Town game a fair bit and I was wondering what would be different about your Scum game. Seems you don't actually know, which seems odd to talk about your Town game like you know it so well when you don't really know how it contrasts to your Scum game. That's all.

[TrinityNZ]

@Trinity I dunno what to say honestly, it's not really good enough to just list names in an order, you have to be able to talk about why those names are ordered the way they are. Like, you were able to talk about FF and Oka at least to some degree, that fact that you're completely unable to articulate any form of a scumread on anyone else at this point is super super worrying. You've also got FF in your lynch pool which is ???, you have stated a townread on FF, please explain how that makes sense.

I was planning on voting Oka this morning when I woke up but after Trinity's recent posting I'm kinda torn. In the world where Trinity is mafia then her flip would clear Oka and that's not a small thing. In the world where she's town then I want to lynch Oka pretty much always but my townread on her isn't as strong as it was and if I think there's a realistic chance of Trinity being mafia then I'm kind of inclined to give that read more time to develop and just put Trinity/Oka aside until tomorrow.

I think I want to lynch Quick the most at this point. There's just so much scum motivation in the way that he's been treating the Oka wagon and I've been mostly turning a blind eye to it but I don't think I can anymore. He's also just not doing anything this game and generally speaking that's never a bad type of slot to lynch on day 1.

@Everyone please share with the class who you would be willing to lynch today.

I think my lynch preference for today is Quick->Eragon->FF.

Lol I thought you were just asking for a list I will try and do more.

[TrinityNZ]

@Trinity I dunno what to say honestly, it's not really good enough to just list names in an order, you have to be able to talk about why those names are ordered the way they are. Like, you were able to talk about FF and Oka at least to some degree, that fact that you're completely unable to articulate any form of a scumread on anyone else at this point is super super worrying. You've also got FF in your lynch pool which is ???, you have stated a townread on FF, please explain how that makes sense.

I was planning on voting Oka this morning when I woke up but after Trinity's recent posting I'm kinda torn. In the world where Trinity is mafia then her flip would clear Oka and that's not a small thing. In the world where she's town then I want to lynch Oka pretty much always but my townread on her isn't as strong as it was and if I think there's a realistic chance of Trinity being mafia then I'm kind of inclined to give that read more time to develop and just put Trinity/Oka aside until tomorrow.

I think I want to lynch Quick the most at this point. There's just so much scum motivation in the way that he's been treating the Oka wagon and I've been mostly turning a blind eye to it but I don't think I can anymore. He's also just not doing anything this game and generally speaking that's never a bad type of slot to lynch on day 1.

@Everyone please share with the class who you would be willing to lynch today.

I think my lynch preference for today is Quick->Eragon->FF.

Lol I thought you were just asking for a list I will try and do more.