Newbie 1881 - Game Over

[nancy]

Anyway don't follow me unless you actually agree with my reasoning. I'm just saying me doing this isn't out of the norm for me. If you think Trinity is mafia then lynch her. Shrug.

[nancy]

I'm sorta wanting to agree with Nancy and go with it. What do you all think?

Why do you need to hear other people's opinions, though? Also why don't you find it scummy that I'm doing this when you've been scumreading me whenever I move my vote before?

[WhyMafia]

Hmm

[OkaPoka]

why does iceman want to leave someone he marks scum to someone he marks null is the real question

[WhyMafia]

I'm slightly hesitant to do another flash wagon this late
But I see what you're saying nancy
Do you no longer perceive Oka or Trinity as scum? Or are they still scum reads

[WhyMafia]

I don't like Oka's last post
It's way too shady and distracts from the two main wagons

[nancy]

Another flash wagon? I didn't realize there had been one before lmao.

No, I already backed off the Trinity scumread after talking to you, and I scumread Oka still yes but in the world where Flicker is mafia then Oka isn't mafia so her scum flip clears him. (And that's not a preflip, Quick, lmao.)

[OkaPoka]

but nancy and iceman's posts don't distract from the main two wagons?

[IcemanCh]

I'm sorta wanting to agree with Nancy and go with it. What do you all think?

Why do you need to hear other people's opinions, though? Also why don't you find it scummy that I'm doing this when you've been scumreading me whenever I move my vote before?

It wasn't that you were moving you're vote it was your reasons for moving the your vote.

You kept taking off your vote so no one would hammer and it prevented pressure from being applied.

This is different because you're moving for good reasons that kind make sense to me.

[IcemanCh]

why does iceman want to leave someone he marks scum to someone he marks null is the real question

Because there's more then 1 scum right?

Also, her reasoning and logic just resonate and make sense to me..... Does that make sense?

[nancy]

I don't agree that pressure is no longer there when I take off my vote. I think you can push people very effectively and apply a ton of pressure without ever voting them.

@WM I don't have an issue with that post from Oka.

[nancy]

Anyway I'm out, I'll be keeping up and stuff but I have laid out my reasoning, y'all can agree/disagree as you please. I'm not interested in muscling anything through or dictating where the lynch goes with the holy powers of persuasion. Think for yourselves and don't be sheep.

[IcemanCh]

Anyway I'm out, I'll be keeping up and stuff but I have laid out my reasoning, y'all can agree/disagree as you please. I'm not interested in muscling anything through or dictating where the lynch goes with the holy powers of persuasion. Think for yourselves and don't be sheep.

Pull pin, throw grenade, walk away.

[OkaPoka]

We can add Flicker to the list of need to be sorted tomorrow.

[IcemanCh]

I don't agree that pressure is no longer there when I take off my vote. I think you can push people very effectively and apply a ton of pressure without ever voting them.

@WM I don't have an issue with that post from Oka.

That's just not true and I'm not 100% sure why you keep saying it. I might be new but, I know effective pressure only really comes from intents to hammer. Which you've made sure we've avoided at all costs.

[IcemanCh]

We can add Flicker to the list of need to be sorted tomorrow.

Trinity is at L-1 right?

[OkaPoka]

i believe there is an intent to hammer her

[IcemanCh]

Well make that a double intent.

I don't think she's scum. I think I've lost interest in pursing Oka as scum. For now. I think I have other questions.

UNVOTE:

[nancy]

I don't agree that pressure is no longer there when I take off my vote. I think you can push people very effectively and apply a ton of pressure without ever voting them.

@WM I don't have an issue with that post from Oka.

That's just not true and I'm not 100% sure why you keep saying it. I might be new but, I know effective pressure only really comes from intents to hammer. Which you've made sure we've avoided at all costs.

One of my best friends who plays mafia almost never uses her vote. She has been playing way longer than I have, she is one of the best scumhunters I know, and she has pushed through more lynches without ever even voting the person than I have pushed through while voting them. Believe me, your vote is important but you don't need it to apply pressure to someone or even to lynch them. Not that I'm saying you should play like her... just have an open mind.

[IcemanCh]

I don't agree that pressure is no longer there when I take off my vote. I think you can push people very effectively and apply a ton of pressure without ever voting them.

@WM I don't have an issue with that post from Oka.

That's just not true and I'm not 100% sure why you keep saying it. I might be new but, I know effective pressure only really comes from intents to hammer. Which you've made sure we've avoided at all costs.

One of my best friends who plays mafia almost never uses her vote. She has been playing way longer than I have, she is one of the best scumhunters I know, and she has pushed through more lynches without ever even voting the person than I have pushed through while voting them. Believe me, your vote is important but you don't need it to apply pressure to someone or even to lynch them. Not that I'm saying you should play like her... just have an open mind.

\
I have an open mind but, I haven't seen any actual pressure from the way you're doing this. It's just the rug being pulled out from under town.

[IcemanCh]

Everytime town get's their footing BAM it's gone.

[nancy]

Alright then. Just lynch Flicker tomorrow when Trinity flips town if I'm not alive and Eragon the day after that.

Think about this before you hammer, though. Which two slots have been the least engaged all game? Not Trinity, she's been engaged in her own bumbling way. Who?

Literally everyone has been really active, except Flicker and Eragon. Everyone except those two have had a meaningful say in how the day has progressed.

Just think about that before you hammer.

Now.

IC night action stuff.

If you're a cop/neapolitan then you should generally check someone who is in your lower or upper null reads, scum tend to hide there a lot. If you ever get a guilty check, don't out it straight away at daystart. Wait a bit, maybe 1/3 of the dayphase, then claim it. During that time before you claim, push on your red check to see how others respond, or push on others to see how your red check responds. This lets you get much more information out of your check.

If you're a tracker you're kinda like a cop but you generally want to target the person who you think is most likely to make the night kill. That's generally very contextual. If there's only one scum alive, you can clear townies. If you track someone and they go nowhere, and there was a nightkill that night, then the person you tracked is cleared as town. So with 1 scum alive, it's best to track inside the PoE, so that you can save mislynches.

If you're a doctor, you should generally protect the person who you think is most likely to be town or the person who you think mafia is most likely to kill. My personal philosophy is to protect the person who I would miss being in the game the most. This doesn't always work, because sometimes that person is just never a realistic NK, but that's where I start.

If you're a jailkeeper, just act as if you're a protective most of the time. You can jail defensively, which is like protection, and offensively, which can potentially roleblock the mafia kill. You should only offensively jailkeep and target someone in the PoE if there is only 1 scum alive. With 1 scum alive, unless there is a really obvious NK, it can be good to jail offensively inside the PoE because if there is a nightkill then the person you jailed is cleared as town, and that saves town a mislynch. If there's no nightkill, chances are that you blocked them from making the kill, but it's not a hard guilty. This especially doesn't apply if the jailkeeper is outed or if another PR is outed and scum know that there is a JK, because scum can do a no-kill gambit to try to fake a guilty.

Don't ever breadcrumb who you're targeting.

I think that's everything.

Oh yeah. If I die tonight then any Doctor or Jailkeeper claim later in the claim should be very very suspect. The only way that a Doctor claim could be real I think is if we're in column A and mafia lucked out on roleblocking the Doctor. But in that case mafia would generally know that they had blocked the Doctor and the Doctor should die n2. So yeah, definitely don't clear people for claiming either of those roles if I die tonight.

The chances of me being alive tomorrow are actually something like 66%, I think, because only 3 out of the 9 possible rands have no protection. I kind of low-key hope that we're in a rand without protection because I dunno if I want to be in this game anymore but that's not really up to me I guess.

[OkaPoka]

we should all request a speed night btw

<3

[Micc]

Votecount 1.22

TrinityNZ (4) -

OkaPoka, Flicker, Eragon, Formerfish

OkaPoka (2) -

WhyMafia, TrinityNZ

Formerfish (1) -

Quick

Flicker (1) -

nancy

Not Voting (1) -

IcemanCh

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2018-07-23 11:49:57).

[TrinityNZ]

Quick, preflip associations happen when person C says that person B is mafia because person A is mafia and they seem like partners, but person A has not flipped, C is just convinced that A is mafia. Looking at a wagon and noticing that your scumreads are on the wagon and deciding that you're not comfortable helping someone who you explicitly

do not trust to the point that you want to kill them

to kill someone else has exactly nothing to do with that.

How on earth are you okay with lynching someone when you don't even have a good idea of what they have done this game? This is literally way too late to be thinking about the game "off the cuff". You are lynching someone. That means they're dead. Forever.

Why can't Trinity be voting Oka because she thinks he's mafia? "Opportunistic" is just a buzzword. It doesn't mean anything. What does "breaking the pattern of OMGUS reads" mean and how is that mafia indicative?

What do you think about her claim?

Well, that's how I play. I don't "count" on my SRs being correct before a lynch. I've said my prefered lynch, not much more I can do about it.

Newbs are generally pretty easy for me to read so I don't feel the need to pour hours into ISOing them.

Opportunistic isn't a buzzword to me. It a legit thought process. Voting opportunistically is when someone votes in a way that looks like there is a good chance for either a wagon to form on that person or there is a good chance of a lynch on that person.. It's about getting to the vote quickly without much reason given. I don't come from a place where "buzzwords" are a thing. As far as "breaking the pattern of OMGUS reads" goes, part of my reads come from what I call narrative that people set the tone of for their play. When they do something that is out of alignment with that narrative, it's Scummy. For example, if you were to all the sudden say you are never changing your reads for the rest of the game, that would be Scummy af to me because you have already changed your reads a million times. This does tie into my read on Trinity in that, I feel previously, Trinity's reads were very much OMGUSsy in nature. Where I am getting this from is their read on me and how it developed. It developed because I SR her. That was the reason for her SR on me. I didn't get that same feel for Trinity's vote on Oka. Instead, what I saw was a VC with Oka at like L-2 at the time and Trinity coming out of the woodwork to put Oka at L-1. My read on Trinity is what I call an Occam's Razor read. I have developed a system for categorizing players into 4 different types with 2 different options of 2 things. I can share it if you want, but not inclined to atm unless asked. Traditionally when people think of Occam's Razor they think of the rule of thumb that the simplest explanation is the correct one. The way I think about it is the process to which people develop reads. In this case I am using some concrete data (that isn't open to interpretation) to inform me of the motivation behind Trinity's play. The information I am looking at is what I just described.. There was a VC, then Trinity voted to put someone at L-1. And that is what I am using to inform my read on Trinity.

Quick, your comments that you find newbies pretty easy to read, and that you have a system for categorising players that places me as scum are going to look pretty silly when I’m confirmed as town. It might be back to the drawing board for your categorisiation system

These comments are actually feeling a bit scummy to me, as once I’m confirmed as town you can then backtrack and say that something didn’t work right in your system, so you can use that as an excuse.