Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Gustavo]

Mechanically, that could no longer be true. If he flips 1sbp, he becomes ~equally likely to have been the N1 target, except by virtue of flipping green he'd be

more

likely in retrospect than you to have been the target.

Him flipping green doesn’t make him more likely the target though. Like why would scum shoot that slot?

[Irrelephant11]

it’s worth noting, actually, that gemini and i stated in a pm before this game that we were really looking forward to being the same faction again this game; so her replacing out might actually be a scum-indicative replace-out, especially with her doing it after she’s put under pressure for the first time. i prompted her to sign up for this game, and we were looking forward to playing with each other again.

but at the same time, this could also mean she’s got things going on irl, that she has general disinterest, or other things. so i want to give her replacement a chance first before i jump to any conclusions from this, but also want to throw it out there since i am town this game and had already sensed that she might be scum. sure enough, it’s a scumlean for me until further content develops, though


@irrelephant, who are you townreading? i would like to see you hard commit there, as you have yet to.

my answer: well, i’m already hard townreading keyser soze and shoshin, and i have voiced a slight town indication that needs further content to sort it out on gamma emerald. the last one is admittedly not a particularly strong read though, so i wouldn’t exactly trust it if i am lynched today and flip town, but i would trust the other two. also stated a gut townread on mathdino, another one i wouldn’t exactly trust, but my gut rules for now...

@skitter: what’s your reason to believe shoshin is scum playing super aggressively?

my answer: i have no reason to believe this myself, but would like to hear more about this. i definitely feel skitter is more likely of the 2 to be scum, because while they were aggressive, their gameplay so far is much easier imho for scum to duplicate.

Stun, can you explain your transition from suspecting me to a townlean to hardtown?

your content seems hard for scum to duplicate; little-to-no scum incentive for scum to play like you have so far, especially on d1. your aggressive act making a splash early on, your willingness to reconsider perspectives, etc.

i mean the list goes on and on, and it makes me question why would you be scum in this game? to which, i can’t gather an answer to

who can possibly townread momrangal right now? totally nai imho, and way too quick to jump to a townread there. convince me

@stungun I like Shoshin, you, Bernie, Mom, and Mathdino for town so far, in that order. None of them are particularly strong because few players have said a ton. I was voting you for pressure because it seemed to rattle you, but the rattling had a towniness as it went on.

I feel like conventional wisdom says Keyser is playing in a towny way, but none of the things he’s saying actually feel genuine? To put it another way, his play fits in a town box, but almost seems too perfectly shaped for it. I’m not saying he’s scummy yet, just that I haven’t seen enough to sort.

Pedit: math what are you saying about me there?

4 of those reads are fair, but what about momrangal’s 5 posts suggests town to you?

same with shoshin, what about momrangal rings you as town?

The most townie thing I'm seeing from you is that you keep referencing your mindset from this other towngame and are like drawing parralels from your play there to your play here.

This is what I'm liking about stungun

I might kinda follow you on the Stungun read.

Because at the time it was mathdino's slot and he is regularly the N1 NK if he's town (I think? He has said so about himself at some point at least)

I'm finding a not-small set of weird interactions regarding stun/gus and the flipped scum, but that's all they really add up to: weird. This post will prolly take me a while though because am distracted

[Irrelephant11]

lol whoops, enjoy those, didn't mean to post them yet xD

[Gustavo]

but just cause somebody says they are regularly NKd doesn't mean they are.

[Irrelephant11]

I mean, okay. If BV flips town though he's obviously more likely to have been the N1 NK than you, who hasn't yet flipped. just by virtue of having flipped, you know?

[Gustavo]

I just went through like the last 6/7 games and math was killed n1 (I think) once. The mod of that game was lazy and didn't indicate when each person died.

but he isn't though. my slot was universally town read and his wasn't. my slot wasn't getting lynched so it makes sense to kill those people day 1.

[Keyser Söze]

Hi everyone, can I have your thoughts on these 8 posts by stungun (Gustavo slot) - all in relation to the two flipped mafia slots:

i’d be most prone to join the gemini wagon as of right now because i don’t have any sort of town vibe from her yet, and i shared a town mason with her last game i played. i feel like her questions might have an intent of stirring the pot—so that would be my official reasoning. i would like to see more AI content from her. haven’t gotten much of that yet. i want to give her a chance to give some gamereads first though, because she’s not one i want to gang up on yet. after all, she’s the main reason i decided to join this game (well along with invisibility playing and mwnn’s alt modding). but i can’t deny that something feels off from her content so far.

Stungun said he played with gemini (the worst) just last game, so he'd have a good indication if gemini was playing differently. Here, very early, stungun broadcasts to everyone that he's not seeing the same town-gemini who he shared a masonry with. For me, this looks natural...

it’s worth noting, actually, that gemini and i stated in a pm before this game that we were really looking forward to being the same faction again this game; so her replacing out might actually be a scum-indicative replace-out, especially with her doing it after she’s put under pressure for the first time. i prompted her to sign up for this game, and we were looking forward to playing with each other again.

but at the same time, this could also mean she’s got things going on irl, that she has general disinterest, or other things. so i want to give her replacement a chance first before i jump to any conclusions from this, but also want to throw it out there since i am town this game and had already sensed that she might be scum. sure enough, it’s a scumlean for me until further content develops, though

You could say these two paragraphs are fence-sitting... but Stungun has strongly indicated that this is a scum-indicative replace-out (scum-Stun gun didn't need to reinforce that in our minds). I think the defensive/apologetic tone could be explained by the fact they were fresh from a completed game together... so he didn't want to be too harsh (?).

4 of those reads are fair, but what about momrangal’s 5 posts suggests town to you?

same with shoshin, what about momrangal rings you as town?

stungun challenging the town reads being expressed on Momrangel... why not just let your scum teammate be town read...(?)

@shoshin: my question for you is above, why do you townread momrangal?
my answer: their content so far would be extremely easy for scum to hide behind and skate to a victory with if kept up, so i definitely can’t give them even a townlean yet.

stungun directly confronting Shoshin's t/read of Mom... does stungun want t/cred for Mom's scum flip...? Can't see that from here. Has stungun actually even called Mom explicitly scum yet? Feels like a genuine null read that is frustrating him.

hot take: scum is among bernie, nsg, nauci, momrangal, and the worst

will vote momrangal or nauci if no one is willing to pressure nsg with me.

Names two mafia...

eh, i want a clear majority on a player whose not given much substantial content (as in townreads and such), so i’m absolutely not passing up this opportunity.

VOTE: Momrangal

Momrangal is now at L-3, so this slot could only probably fit one more vote for our purposes as of right now, but absolutely no more than that.

This looks like a pressure vote, more than a, I think-this-is-scum-lynch-it vote. He emphasizes the fact that he didn't want the wagon going beyond L-3! Scum-stungun wasn't gonna win any town-cred points suggesting that: in a sense he's opposing the mom D1 lynch.

Meanwhile, just looked through other nsg replace-outs to see if I could gather anything, and lo and behold I came across something suspicious. And given the circumstances, I do

feel confident

in asserting that one of the worst or nsg IS scum, because I feel there’s too much evidence between the two options that would support either replace-out being scum for them

BOTH

to be town. However, if one flips scum, I do find it highly unlikely the other flips scum, because having 2 scum replace-outs on d1 would surely be an outlier type of game. has anybody ever seen that happen?

Stungun basically stressing his theory that at least one is scum of the replace outs (and not both). Wouldn't scum-Stungun prefer to open up avenues than close them?

UNVOTE: Momrangal.

Still a null read for me, but I don’t think this slot is official D1 lynch material, and I’m actually more wary of the people that were on her wagon (the worst, nsg, and skitter), so back to the drawing board.

stun now opposing the mom wagon and suspicious of the players on mom's wagon!

[Gustavo]

I see no issues with these posts

[Keyser Söze]

I have no major issues of concern with those 8 posts either.

I.e Stungun hasn't acted in the way I would expect for him to behave knowing that mom/the worst are scum.

- I would have let the town core t/read Mom...
- I would have stayed on the mom wagon and not opposed it, nor emphasizing that I didn't want it to go further than L-3...
- I wouldn't have named both my partners in my hot take/bottom reads...
- I wouldn't have telegraphed my vote on mom as a mere pressure vote on a null read, I would have invested more distancing for t/cred...

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah, agreed, actually. Mom and tw were both pretty confident about Stungun's towniness, too, which I think one of them would be a little more hesitant if he was actually scum (hedging their bets in case of eventual stun-lynch). Gustavo is town.

Do we need to worry about errant?

[Irrelephant11]

Also sorry for scumreading you for so long Keyser, in retrospect it was ~75% playstyle, and hopefully it won't happen again!

[Gustavo]

Do we need to worry about errant?

He definitely needs to be looked in to at some point but today it’s nm or bv. Probably nm

[Not_Mafia]

It’s not

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah I just skimmed his ISO and he basically comes in shooting shots at Mom and tw, it's prolly not errant

VOTE: Not_Mafia
This is L-1, NM I dare you to hammer

[Keyser Söze]

Yeah the way I express myself sometimes isn’t clear or helpful but once you figure out I’m town I become obvious town.


Re: Errant, since the neighborizor claim (which is 75% town ) I’ve admittedly taken my eye off him, but warmed up to him before then. Will re-read his posts next in connection with the two lynches on scum.

[Gustavo]

I forgot about the neighborizer.

[Keyser Söze]

looking at his interpretation of his town win con I think he’d hammer himself here

[Irrelephant11]

Yikes at the scumteam this game. 2/5 replace outs were scum (99% sure, anyway), which is pretty uncool for having a game. Killer town, though, lots of hard work put in to narrow things down this much, go team!

[Gustavo]

My gut says with the neighborizer scum is either bv or errant but let’s lynch nm anyway

[Gustavo]

Town

Odd Night Doctor
Tracker
Neopolitan
Neighborizer
1 shot BP

Scum

Encryptor
Goon
Ninja or Blocker?

Who thinks this looks balanced?

[Irrelephant11]

ooh good point

VOTE: Blackvoid

[Keyser Söze]

I forgot about the neighborizer.

town neighborizor balances out the scum day chat.. (?)

[Gustavo]

Idk. I’m not sure what reviewers think about with that.

VOTE: bv

I think I’ll just black list NM going forward. That’s more than once he’s been a done useless turd. He even cost me a win.

[Gustavo]

Someone look over Errantparabola posts. I’m heading out and can’t.

[Gustavo]

Who did he neighbor?