Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Gustavo]

I guess this is why last scum doesn’t give up. While I fee it’s a slam dunk by poe, if something hinky is going on then they can still win.

[Nauci]

I'm town let's lynch someone else

Who?

Irrelephant maybe

Someone put a vote on NM so I can do the lolhammer

Actually though the reason I want to lynch BV before NM is because if BV flips bulletproof, Gustavo is no longer mechanically mostly-cleared. Lynching BV and being wrong is more helpful/informative than lynching NM and being wrong.

I also want to add to the case against BV that he was really certain that EITHER Mom OR the worst was scum, and spent a while deciding which one D2. This could be coming from the third partner trying to clear the better-playing scum by lynching the worst (pun intended).

We have 3 nights worth of conftown but yes I agree with this

However it's not a case for why bv is scum lol

[Nauci]

Catch up reading makes me regret outing today instead of tomorrow

[BlackVoid]

It could still have been Gustavo. You just have to read and figure him out.

What do you think?

I'm actually reading his pred in ISO right now to double check that I'm not going wrong. I think the way he and Gemini were trying to work with each other and gamesolve points away from them being partners. I'll check Gustavo as well to be sure.

[Nauci]

I mean, if Nauci is scum (which is really just not the case, aside from my strong townread on her this would be an incredibly bizarre long-game play for scum that makes it harder for her to win), that still would clear me and Keyser because there's only one scum left.

pedit: pretty sure NM's gonna be stubborn and stick with Gustavo, so I think we can just decide who to lynch.

I'm thinking BV > NM > Gustavo

I assume nightkills would be Nauci > Me/Keyser > Town loss

pedit2: I'm gonna start by looking at mom/tw/gustavo interactions

Gotta sort between Gus and errant if bv flips green, basically

[Nauci]

Mechanically, that could no longer be true. If he flips 1sbp, he becomes ~equally likely to have been the N1 target, except by virtue of flipping green he'd be

more

likely in retrospect than you to have been the target.

Him flipping green doesn’t make him more likely the target though. Like why would scum shoot that slot?

Because Mathdino is so good at nailing the worst to the wall he did it here as a ghost from a past game

Tw definitely shoots math if math was town

[Gustavo]

Because Mathdino is so good at nailing the worst to the wall he did it here as a ghost from a past game

Tw definitely shoots math if math was town

Until I see evidence from multiple past games, you can’t really use that as an argument.

[Nauci]

@brass

>mwnn’s alt

Wat

[brassherald]

@brass

>mwnn’s alt

Wat

MWNN is my alt.

[Nauci]

Also sorry for scumreading you for so long Keyser, in retrospect it was ~75% playstyle, and hopefully it won't happen again!

Yeah the way I express myself sometimes isn’t clear or helpful but once you figure out I’m town I become obvious town.


Re: Errant, since the neighborizor claim (which is 75% town ) I’ve admittedly taken my eye off him, but warmed up to him before then. Will re-read his posts next in connection with the two lynches on scum.

Stun's replacing wish was for y'all to tr Keyser, who seemed to have as much a town perspective as Skitter

I'm clearing Gus based on that

Ffs no one end the damn day unless Skitter and bv have responded in full

[BlackVoid]

I really can't see either errant or gustavo being scum. Gustavo's whole "I'm voting Shoshin and my mind isn't being changed or it'll get toxic" attitude is a bit too far to go as scum. He does switch to Gamma but he backs it up with the accusation that Gamma wasn't voting. Since he used the same argument against me, I believe that he truly believes it.

[Nauci]

So my head says scum are Not_Mafia, Mom, and the worst, but my heart says it's Gustavo, Nauci, and mathdino.

nice

So we've learned to not follow your heart

(Don't tell Mrs Irrelephant I said that)

[Nauci]

ok i'm basically caught up

i think i want

nm >> bv = gus >> ep >> nauci

where i'm assuming me/irrelephant, keyser are town

keyser/irrelephant are only not necessarily town if nauci is town fake-claiming here, which would just be like idiotic; if she's scum and lying they're still town; also the setup seems to indicate she's telling the truth; and either way she's going to get resolved by dying before lylo presumably and on the off chance she doesn't we can figure it out then

townread ep

and i townread bv + gus too but less than everyone else

so i think nm is my preferred lynch today

Skitter you're breaking my spirit

[Nauci]

Also, N_M just gave up so why haven't we ended the game?

like this is pinging me - i feel like you're urging people towards a lynch which is ..... not like you at all

Extremely this

[BlackVoid]

You are in the middle of an absurd tunnel. What's more likely? TheWorst getting a townie mislynched before he went down or him guiltying a partner knowing he had to survive several more days and claim results every day?

[BlackVoid]

And there's the fact that town would have actual PRs that'll eventually get him through POE. Or it may just look weird that he has a PR when town already has so many and setup spec dooms him.

[Nauci]

bv i'm really just getting the vibe that you want to push this lynch through?

Yeah, I want to push N_M through. Maybe I'm not playing completely optimally by not going through an extensive analysis of clearing Gustavo before I do it. I think it's ridiculous people are actually voting me over him and I'd hate to give this scumteam a free mislynch on me even if they wind up losing.

I haven't read the game closely enough to see what the context is. But N_M's posts here just gave me the impression that he knows he's caught and the game is done so might as well get lynched and move onto the next one.

Is there anyone I should be seriously considering outside of N_M?

After all that effort for 2 days and talking up your "don't vote until sure" act, you're going to throw out this anti town garbage?

We have 3 chances to nail scum yet your first priority seems to be keeping you alive with even vanity pleas like this

[BlackVoid]

There's literally no chance of town losing as long as I don't get lynched. I know theoretically skitter isn't clear but I've played enough with her to know that her flipping scum is not a possibility.

It seems you are pissed and you're omgus'ing because I pushed you this game. Maybe don't be intentionally scummy next time you draw a PR if that annoys you so much. I've been fairly dead on this game outside of Irrelephant and I was even backing off of Irrelephant before your results.

[Nauci]

Bv the 1sbp perspective would have involved a "why would scum shoot at Gustavo OR me" data point, which *has not at all happened* and I reread your catch ups.

It's a far bigger issue than not crumbing it.

Also as 1sbp you extremely want to be NKed and there's no way you don't know that

[BlackVoid]

You literally argued that I was a better lynch than TheWorst despite Rask having results on TheWorst showing that he did not visit me. You want me to be scum so bad but I'm not. You're going to have to snap out of your tunnel and actually realize it makes no sense for me to be scum with TheWorst.

[the worst]

mafia goon**
damn auto-correct

[/delayed bah post]

[BlackVoid]

Bv the 1sbp perspective would have involved a "why would scum shoot at Gustavo OR me" data point, which *has not at all happened* and I reread your catch ups.

It's a far bigger issue than not crumbing it.

Also as 1sbp you extremely want to be NKed and there's no way you don't know that

I told you. I already decided I wasn't going to hint at being 1-shot BP in the thread. I didn't really care which of us were shot as it doesn't really help me develop my reads very much at that point.

The common logic of 1-shot BPs wanting to be nk'd is overrated. There's some benefit to a scum no kill but it's only really useful if there are TWO no kills. Otherwise, it just puts the game at evens.

[Nauci]

hi i'm a she

i feel like there's enough lynches left that we're basically guaranteed to get to 4way, and depending on how exactly the flips go and if i'm alive i probably get hammer. i can't project exactly what i'll do there because it'll depend on future flips but this prob won't be the worst xylo i've been in

(aside: i'm eternally surprised that i make it anywhere near xylo)

basically my point is that the order doesn't matter *too* much since there's enough cleared slots that we can basically lynch through the unclears and win, although it would be nice to win today, so i'm going to try for that

bv i'm going to read your response but i need to do stuff irl now, but i'll be back later this afternoon at some point

Lol you can ask poor brass how many times I've spammed him with livejournaling about how I was terrified of being NKed

But since day 2 there's been a never ending supply of PRs or conftown to NK

[Nauci]

Because Mathdino is so good at nailing the worst to the wall he did it here as a ghost from a past game

Tw definitely shoots math if math was town

Until I see evidence from multiple past games, you can’t really use that as an argument.

2 of just the games I linked on TW in my case had Math build his wagon from scratch. Don't remember if there are more.

They work together well as town so math is just really good at sorting tw

[Gustavo]

Really wish shos wouldn’t have Fucking claimed