Labyrinth Mafia (Endgame)

[the worst]

they're not on every page. but for example miller:

Play Advice
If you are a Miller, there are two schools of thought about optimal play:

The first school of thought is that you should claim immediately, ideally in your opening post. This ensures that the Cop will not waste an investigation on you. It becomes more likely that you will be lynched or shot by a Vigilante, however; otherwise, it would be too easy for Mafia to fakeclaim Miller as well. This is by far the most common way to play the role on mafiascum.net.

The second school of thought is that you should not claim, but should play in such a way as to not get investigated; ideally, you would get yourself killed at Night. If investigated, however, you should expect to get lynched.

[Shoshin]

they're not on every page. but for example miller:

Play Advice
If you are a Miller, there are two schools of thought about optimal play:

The first school of thought is that you should claim immediately, ideally in your opening post. This ensures that the Cop will not waste an investigation on you. It becomes more likely that you will be lynched or shot by a Vigilante, however; otherwise, it would be too easy for Mafia to fakeclaim Miller as well. This is by far the most common way to play the role on mafiascum.net.

The second school of thought is that you should not claim, but should play in such a way as to not get investigated; ideally, you would get yourself killed at Night. If investigated, however, you should expect to get lynched.

Good advice. I think both are valid ways of thinking, and what's optimal depends on the specific playerlist.

[the worst]

yeah, definitely. the nature of the setup too.

if you show up as guilty to all investigatives and are in a setup with lots of power roles, claiming sod1 would be a must tbh

[Scioness Sajj]

@theworst
i mean i was asked so I did claim how it was beside how many shots i was. i still could be 2 or 3 or whatever shots with a novice modifier i think. i didn't think claiming novice would matter.

@wisdom
i was thinking about calming after chick was hammered but the thread got locked before i have made up my mind. and then i didn't really bother thinking about the game until the day started. i mean i ultimately thought that it wouldn't matter that much i.e. if people were scumreading me they would still regardless of the claim.
i sure have misjudged the situation.

[the worst]

that's fair, Sajj. like I said with more time I think I would have realised I was being stupid within like 24 hours but just wanted you to know what pinged me about the claim.

[MathBlade]

Ok mb I mixed you up with someone else who did what I said

You were still utterly certain town was scum so =[

Pretty sure in my hood I said if Shoshin town I would be pushing Random will double check later but I mean cmon y’all. Like even if I scumread all things wrong

Friendly neighbor is a role that forces scum to adapt.

Neighbor itself is one of the most powerful roles in the game.

Friendly neighbor is damn good

[mastina]

So.
This was a game I was in.

[the worst]

technically.


was it a good read? it sounds like you were actually pretty well tuned into the gamestate considering the limited time you had (Ank mentioning your theory that 9p could be LyLo is what originally tuned me into the idea of there being 4 scum)

[the worst]

Well in this case 7p with one scum down. you know what I mean

[MathBlade]

technically.


was it a good read? it sounds like you were actually pretty well tuned into the gamestate considering the limited time you had (Ank mentioning your theory that 9p could be LyLo is what originally tuned me into the idea of there being 4 scum)

Yeah at least you saw my very limited dumping ground

I am actually working on posting less and using scribble notes more

[MathBlade]

It’s a shame I couldn’t post after I was dead lol

[mastina]

was it a good read? it sounds like you were actually pretty well tuned into the gamestate considering the limited time you had (Ank mentioning your theory that 9p could be LyLo is what originally tuned me into the idea of there being 4 scum)

That implies I read it.

I read the early pages, I read some random pages on the last day we were alive plus a little after we died (including enough to know that Shoshin follows my school of theory going by Shoshin's direct quoting of my MD threads/articles at some points ), enough to pick up on Wisdom being scum and to have a reasonable idea as to what would be town/not town, including to be on the lookout for an extra scum, but I didn't have a SOLID grasp on the game at any point; my success here I'd say is more based around my skill as a mechanical player combined with educated guessing amounting to luck.

[Shoshin]

was it a good read? it sounds like you were actually pretty well tuned into the gamestate considering the limited time you had (Ank mentioning your theory that 9p could be LyLo is what originally tuned me into the idea of there being 4 scum)

That implies I read it.

I read the early pages, I read some random pages on the last day we were alive plus a little after we died (including enough to know that Shoshin follows my school of theory going by Shoshin's direct quoting of my MD threads/articles at some points ), enough to pick up on Wisdom being scum and to have a reasonable idea as to what would be town/not town, including to be on the lookout for an extra scum, but I didn't have a SOLID grasp on the game at any point; my success here I'd say is more based around my skill as a mechanical player combined with educated guessing amounting to luck.

What article?

[the worst]

that's fair mastina. in that case it was a bloody good guess

[mastina]

What article?

Well.

It means anything is possible but the basis of decisions should be probabilities, not possibilities.

This is pretty much a direct quote from my article here.

Though less-up-to-date than the wiki version, the original thread can be quoted to show this:

Basic Thesis:

Mafia thrive on

possibility

; town thrive on

probability

.

Everything in the game traces back to this simple belief.

A mafia player thrives on making players think of the unlikely: "What if this player who was investigated by the cop is actually a Godfather? What if the cop claim after the lynch of a Godfather is actually scum fakeclaiming?" These are things that are of course theoretically

possible

, and which vastly favor the scum because they are probably not actually true.

A town player thrives on making reasonably probable conclusions: No, the innocent is not on a Godfather; no, the cop claiming after a Godfather lynch is not scum fakeclaiming. There remains the possibility of being wrong in deductions like this...but sheer statistical numbers are on your side to hold these beliefs, as 90+% of the time you will be right to have held these stances.

I channel the possibilities with a simple, yet versatile, question: "

Which is more likely?

" Which is the most likely to be the case? This is closely tied to Occam's Razor, in that often the most likely possibility is the simplest one requiring the least number of assumptions.

Nothing Is Ever Certain!

You will never have a scumteam which perfectly fits all the data on hand. There will always be something which makes the team not be perfect. There will always be a valid point which keeps a scumteam from being flawless.

Town players will say scummy shit. Scum players will say shit which sounds town. This is a basic truth, universal to any game you will play. Which is stronger depends on the skill of the player in question as an alignment, not to mention the circumstances behind what they are saying. (A statement that is incredibly scummy in one game might be the beacon of towniness in another; similarly, a statement scummy from one player might be a huge towntell coming from a different player.)

However, regardless of how crappy the scum are, or how elite the scum are, or how good the town are, or how shitty the town are: both sides will always contain at least

some

of both. As a result, when weighing evidence, every player will have a possibility of being either alignment.

The job of a town player isn't to see every possibility--

the job of a town player is to figure out which possibility is the most probable.

Explain Using These Terms

You don't have to use the exact language that I use here. But it helps to use the conceptual language here, and lots of us do this already. When we see someone point out something which we find to basically be impossible, we'll call them out on their bullshit and clearly tell them why we feel their theory, while possible, is incredibly improbable.

Be Realistic

In all aspects of your play. You should have in mind at all times what is a realistic scenario and what is unrealistic. But you should also know what you can realistically do, and what you cannot realistically do. For instance, if you're suffering a bad V/LA, you probably shouldn't promise to write a novella on every player in the game because that is almost certainly beyond your realistic capabilities given your circumstances.

Apply Occam's Razor

Use it often. Point out how unlikely combinations are. Point out how many assumptions (especially flawed ones) a theory relies on. Keeping things simple is a guideline I cannot stress the importance of enough in terms of possibilities versus probabilities. Most remote possibilities flagrantly violate Occam's Razor; most probabilities use Occam's Razor.

In Summary:

As town, focus on what is probable rather than what is possible, and look for those who are failing to do so.

(Incidentally, I am absolutely horrendous at being realistic about what I can/can't do, but I am TRYING to get better about it. Trying.)

[mastina]

Also.

that's fair mastina. in that case it was a bloody good guess

It's my one talent as a town player.

Guess the scum? Well, I do it occasionally, but I won't be able to replicate it again.

Guess aspects of the setup that I by all rights shouldn't be able to guess?

Well, I'll do it again in different games, each time flabbergasted that I got it right and yet managing it game after game.

[Ankamius]

I've been in a game where scum had secret access to a neighborhood, Nancy.

Plus I was considering Wheme being scum too.

That was my game

I'm referring to a Skullduggery game

[MathBlade]

I've been in a game where scum had secret access to a neighborhood, Nancy.

Plus I was considering Wheme being scum too.

That was my game

I'm referring to a Skullduggery game

I’ve been a part of so many as scum I have lost count.
Shadowrun
The mini in my sig
Off the top of my head and had a few before those

I was in Undertale that ended up developing one

[Nancy Drew 39]

I've been in a game where scum had secret access to a neighborhood, Nancy.

Plus I was considering Wheme being scum too.

That was my game

I'm referring to a Skullduggery game

I’ve been a part of so many as scum I have lost count.
Shadowrun
The mini in my sig
Off the top of my head and had a few before those

I was in Undertale that ended up developing one

Ah, so that’s why you’re such an expert on random.

[MathBlade]

I've been in a game where scum had secret access to a neighborhood, Nancy.

Plus I was considering Wheme being scum too.

That was my game

I'm referring to a Skullduggery game

I’ve been a part of so many as scum I have lost count.
Shadowrun
The mini in my sig
Off the top of my head and had a few before those

I was in Undertale that ended up developing one

Ah, so that’s why you’re such an expert on random.

Lol I wouldn’t say expert but I have a basis.

[Shoshin]

What article?

Well.

It means anything is possible but the basis of decisions should be probabilities, not possibilities.

This is pretty much a direct quote from my article here.

Though less-up-to-date than the wiki version, the original thread can be quoted to show this:

Basic Thesis:

Mafia thrive on

possibility

; town thrive on

probability

.

Everything in the game traces back to this simple belief.

A mafia player thrives on making players think of the unlikely: "What if this player who was investigated by the cop is actually a Godfather? What if the cop claim after the lynch of a Godfather is actually scum fakeclaiming?" These are things that are of course theoretically

possible

, and which vastly favor the scum because they are probably not actually true.

A town player thrives on making reasonably probable conclusions: No, the innocent is not on a Godfather; no, the cop claiming after a Godfather lynch is not scum fakeclaiming. There remains the possibility of being wrong in deductions like this...but sheer statistical numbers are on your side to hold these beliefs, as 90+% of the time you will be right to have held these stances.

I channel the possibilities with a simple, yet versatile, question: "

Which is more likely?

" Which is the most likely to be the case? This is closely tied to Occam's Razor, in that often the most likely possibility is the simplest one requiring the least number of assumptions.

Nothing Is Ever Certain!

You will never have a scumteam which perfectly fits all the data on hand. There will always be something which makes the team not be perfect. There will always be a valid point which keeps a scumteam from being flawless.

Town players will say scummy shit. Scum players will say shit which sounds town. This is a basic truth, universal to any game you will play. Which is stronger depends on the skill of the player in question as an alignment, not to mention the circumstances behind what they are saying. (A statement that is incredibly scummy in one game might be the beacon of towniness in another; similarly, a statement scummy from one player might be a huge towntell coming from a different player.)

However, regardless of how crappy the scum are, or how elite the scum are, or how good the town are, or how shitty the town are: both sides will always contain at least

some

of both. As a result, when weighing evidence, every player will have a possibility of being either alignment.

The job of a town player isn't to see every possibility--

the job of a town player is to figure out which possibility is the most probable.

Explain Using These Terms

You don't have to use the exact language that I use here. But it helps to use the conceptual language here, and lots of us do this already. When we see someone point out something which we find to basically be impossible, we'll call them out on their bullshit and clearly tell them why we feel their theory, while possible, is incredibly improbable.

Be Realistic

In all aspects of your play. You should have in mind at all times what is a realistic scenario and what is unrealistic. But you should also know what you can realistically do, and what you cannot realistically do. For instance, if you're suffering a bad V/LA, you probably shouldn't promise to write a novella on every player in the game because that is almost certainly beyond your realistic capabilities given your circumstances.

Apply Occam's Razor

Use it often. Point out how unlikely combinations are. Point out how many assumptions (especially flawed ones) a theory relies on. Keeping things simple is a guideline I cannot stress the importance of enough in terms of possibilities versus probabilities. Most remote possibilities flagrantly violate Occam's Razor; most probabilities use Occam's Razor.

In Summary:

As town, focus on what is probable rather than what is possible, and look for those who are failing to do so.

(Incidentally, I am absolutely horrendous at being realistic about what I can/can't do, but I am TRYING to get better about it. Trying.)

I wasn't quoting your article but I agree with the basic idea of weighing the evidence to determine what's likely. And in practice, that requires a lot of difficult judgments about how probable different behaviors are. Out of curiosity, are you a lawyer?

Sidenote: I disagree with the idea that it's probable for scum to focus on possibilities more than probabilities. Figuring out what's probable is a bit more complex than that imo (e.g. in this game the townies were the ones coming up with crazy improbable theories, including your partner Ank).

[Nancy Drew 39]

What article?

Well.

It means anything is possible but the basis of decisions should be probabilities, not possibilities.

This is pretty much a direct quote from my article here.

Though less-up-to-date than the wiki version, the original thread can be quoted to show this:

Basic Thesis:

Mafia thrive on

possibility

; town thrive on

probability

.

Everything in the game traces back to this simple belief.

A mafia player thrives on making players think of the unlikely: "What if this player who was investigated by the cop is actually a Godfather? What if the cop claim after the lynch of a Godfather is actually scum fakeclaiming?" These are things that are of course theoretically

possible

, and which vastly favor the scum because they are probably not actually true.

A town player thrives on making reasonably probable conclusions: No, the innocent is not on a Godfather; no, the cop claiming after a Godfather lynch is not scum fakeclaiming. There remains the possibility of being wrong in deductions like this...but sheer statistical numbers are on your side to hold these beliefs, as 90+% of the time you will be right to have held these stances.

I channel the possibilities with a simple, yet versatile, question: "

Which is more likely?

" Which is the most likely to be the case? This is closely tied to Occam's Razor, in that often the most likely possibility is the simplest one requiring the least number of assumptions.

Nothing Is Ever Certain!

You will never have a scumteam which perfectly fits all the data on hand. There will always be something which makes the team not be perfect. There will always be a valid point which keeps a scumteam from being flawless.

Town players will say scummy shit. Scum players will say shit which sounds town. This is a basic truth, universal to any game you will play. Which is stronger depends on the skill of the player in question as an alignment, not to mention the circumstances behind what they are saying. (A statement that is incredibly scummy in one game might be the beacon of towniness in another; similarly, a statement scummy from one player might be a huge towntell coming from a different player.)

However, regardless of how crappy the scum are, or how elite the scum are, or how good the town are, or how shitty the town are: both sides will always contain at least

some

of both. As a result, when weighing evidence, every player will have a possibility of being either alignment.

The job of a town player isn't to see every possibility--

the job of a town player is to figure out which possibility is the most probable.

Explain Using These Terms

You don't have to use the exact language that I use here. But it helps to use the conceptual language here, and lots of us do this already. When we see someone point out something which we find to basically be impossible, we'll call them out on their bullshit and clearly tell them why we feel their theory, while possible, is incredibly improbable.

Be Realistic

In all aspects of your play. You should have in mind at all times what is a realistic scenario and what is unrealistic. But you should also know what you can realistically do, and what you cannot realistically do. For instance, if you're suffering a bad V/LA, you probably shouldn't promise to write a novella on every player in the game because that is almost certainly beyond your realistic capabilities given your circumstances.

Apply Occam's Razor

Use it often. Point out how unlikely combinations are. Point out how many assumptions (especially flawed ones) a theory relies on. Keeping things simple is a guideline I cannot stress the importance of enough in terms of possibilities versus probabilities. Most remote possibilities flagrantly violate Occam's Razor; most probabilities use Occam's Razor.

In Summary:

As town, focus on what is probable rather than what is possible, and look for those who are failing to do so.

(Incidentally, I am absolutely horrendous at being realistic about what I can/can't do, but I am TRYING to get better about it. Trying.)

I wasn't quoting your article but I agree with the basic idea of weighing the evidence to determine what's likely. And in practice, that requires a lot of difficult judgments about how probable different behaviors are. Out of curiosity, are you a lawyer?

Sidenote: I disagree with the idea that it's probable for scum to focus on possibilities more than probabilities. Figuring out what's probable is a bit more complex than that imo (e.g. in this game the townies were the ones coming up with crazy improbable theories, including your partner Ank).

While that’s true in this case, in general it’s not.

[mastina]

Out of curiosity, are you a lawyer?

I am not!
I am autistic, with a fondness for writing (something I've considered is that my skillset may be well-suited to technical writing, but this mostly manifests in me having started thousands of stories), which gives an aura similar to that of a lawyer (see also, people commonly think that when I'm playing on alts of mine that I'm Titus, who IS a lawyer ), but I myself am not one.

Was told I'd make an excellent politician by many people, though!

[Nancy Drew 39]

@RadiantCowbells, when are we going to be able to see the PTs or scumchat?

[Ankamius]

I want my neighborhood released at least since that was my equivalent of a private PT this game