Transformers Mafia - Dinobots STRONGEST!

[the worst]

they're both so scummy tho

[Fundamental Theorem]

town entrance, town gusto

i think it'd be rly hard to fake this as scum for porkens

(I'll take this as a gutread I guess. I don't agree with it tthough at all.)

[the worst]

basically w/ FT here

can anyone convince me why either of them are even slightly towny? as I understand Antihero is lurking and occasionally posting OK?posts which are well within his scumrange which sounds like a scum approach to this game

refer Brian Skies ISO for why Porkens' actions do not feel town motivated

I'm kinda at a loss for why I should ever take a hard stance on one of them or the other here. and LLD's argument about never voting neither is objectively two dimensional and needs to be considered in context not in place of context

[Toogeloo]

Voting neither at this point is just being stubbornly pointless. You have a problem coming up with your own conclusions on who would be better for the town to live?

[rb]

i find it strange that you have no stance on porkens despite the clusterfuck hes initiated?

[rb]

i think porkens has a good chance of being town, more than antihero - and i think giving someone who i think is very likely town a power from a duel is much better than antihero who i think has done like bare minimum and possibly scum a power from winning duel

[Brian Skies]

and i think giving someone who i think is very likely town a power from a duel

Good for you, even if I don't agree with you that the player in question is actually townish.

[Fundamental Theorem]

I have to agree Antihero isn’t doing much either. I still don’t really get a town!vibe from Porkens ISO though. (And the fact I also want him gone for policy reasons as well doesn’t help his case.)

[Fundamental Theorem]

Like, aside from the audacity of the duel, I need a specific reason why they are town, preferably referencing a post or two from Porkens ISO. I don’t give much stock to the duel argument because I consider it to be heavily WIFOM-based.

[Garmr]

VOTE: neither

[the worst]

Voting neither at this point is just being stubbornly pointless. You have a problem coming up with your own conclusions on who would be better for the town to live?

ugh this post is awful

[Brian Skies]

VOTE: neither

[Gammagooey]

VOTE: UnrealSeal

You bastard! I wanted to be first!

Hey everyponye
Hello everypony!!!!!

Excited to play with you all!

VOTE: gammagooey

Scummy.

Hi I claim miller

Our second sacrifice!

VOTE: Creature

Scummy

Found my duel target

Porkens why did you not duel any of the people you actually called scummy?

I'll be around before deadline tomorrow so I can be cheeky and
VOTE: Unvote
workin' on a readspost now

[Gammagooey]

pretty tired so I'm not going to go into too much detail on each of these, but feel free to ask about them and I should be able to get to answering sometime tomorrow (but it might only be like an hour and a half til deadline as a warning)

Skygazer I think is very likely town for how they claimed, and claiming innocent child if they win a duel is real unlikely to be a scum claim given that if they're still alive in midgame it's fairly likely people will want to test it out.
Spiffeh felt town
Toog's first post looks good and his thoughts generally seem genuine, slightly town
Garmr has a lot of good posts. I'd like to see a few more reads of his on players that aren't being talked about so much but he's a pretty solid townread for right now.
Brian looks like how I'd expect Brian to feel after how exhausting Product Placement Mafia was. Slightly town

Antihero's UnrealSeal read seems decently thought out at least, his LLD and stungun reads are bland enough that scum could easily fake them. I don't remember Gamma Emerald's posts well enough to say anything about his read there. His first post telling Spiffeh to "DUEL ME SCRUB" is the towniest post he has. I pretty much just agree with Spiffeh that nothing there would really shock me as coming from scum and maybe it's a little sunk cost fallacy-ish but I don't want to throw away what I think is a possible lynch on scum before they got situated in the game.
Porkens having a good ability as town and doing this bullshit to make sure he gets it makes more sense to me than him jumping into very likely death as scum after d1 turned out the way it did.

stungun felt really bad to me for most of d1 b/c a lotttttt of his posts just felt like scum filler, but his recent posts do seem better. I need to reread his iso pretty soon.
I agree with a lot of things rb says but his early game and drunkposting felt a little forced. If anyone has a POWERFUL read on him one way or the other I'd like to hear about it.

dram and vecna and prof fridays have done nothing that looks town yet and are in the <20 post club. I'd prob rate them scummiest to towniest as Fridays then dram then vecna, but I'd prefer any of them being dueled right now to Antihero/Porkens. BBT was also in the game and also looked slightly townier than any of them imo with his 9 posts but all 4 of their alignments are a crapshoot.

I still think Unreal looks okay (i'd say slightly town) imo but he's another player I should probably read closer into just based on how many people find him scummy
Creature I have no read on whatsoever and is probably one of the better players in the game so I'm pretty fine with him surviving longer just based on other people town reading him. Papa Zito is pretty similar except very slightly town but is also my favorite player in the entire game.

LLD feels like the same LLD that smoked everyone in Product Placement Mafia by putting maximum effort into doing obviously town-looking things but barely giving any reads at all until she feels like she has to. I'm not amazingly confident in her being scum but her immediately scumreading me after saying she's scum sure didn't feel help. Don't take my word on her as gospel but if you want any chance of catching her if she's scum you NEED to make her actually commit on several reads by midgame.

I think I left out a few players - Gemerald and Maria and the worst? I could probably form an opinion of the worst if I iso dug enough but for now they're all flat null. I've mentioned Fundamental in previous posts and I don't want to go into that more.

need to sleep, g'night

[Gammagooey]

LLD feels like the same LLD that smoked everyone in Product Placement Mafia by putting maximum effort into doing obviously town-looking things but barely giving any reads at all until she feels like she has to. I'm not amazingly confident in her being scum but her immediately scumreading me after saying she's scum sure didn't

feel good

help.

wording fix with what I put there before I half-deleted it while making the post

[Gammagooey]

***I'm not amazingly confident in her being scum but her immediately scumreading me after saying

she's

I'm scum sure didn't

feel good

help. ***
im going to sleep now

[Lady Lambdadelta]

YOU DIDN'T CALL ME SCUM YOU DIRTY LIAR.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

YOU SAT ON ME ALL WISHY WASHY

AND WHEN I DIDN'T IGNORE YOU NOW YOU'RE PUSHING ABIT HARDER BECAUSE YOU KNOW I SMELL BLOOD

[rb]

[rb]

LLD - what are your reads

[Lady Lambdadelta]

LLD - what are your reads

Gamma scum UnrealSeal Scum

AH town?

Porkens I dunno, seems third party ish. Certainly not helping town.

Spiffeh Town

The Hydra with the R name whose duels don't end the day is Town

uh... what else off the top of my head

oh yeah Maria probably town

[Lady Lambdadelta]

OH THE WORST IS SCUM TOO

almost forgot

[rb]

how convinced are you that gammagooey is scum? you seem really certain

[rb]

i actually like those reads

[Prof Fridays]

Prof fueling fire from the sidelines is scummy and needs to die.

That seems like a pretty extreme take. Staying quiet sure as hell isn't going to do town a lot of good. To say I've been on the sidelines is only true insofar as I've aligned myself wholeheartedly with Spiffeh's (and to a lesser extent LLD's) position on today's duel, but I'm not ashamed of that. Otherwise, I've been campaigning for Porkens' innocence, because I believe it to be true and that his living is valuable for town. Also, his flavor-claim jives with mine, which makes me even more confident in his town-ness. This is to say nothing of what I think of Antihero, and while I'm not necessarily scum-reading him, he definitely seems less probably town than Porkens, and I'd be willing to wager Porkens has a valuable enough of a town PR that would make him run this gambit. And if scum wants to blow their kill on him tonight or not, it's somewhat of a win-win for town.

(Like, if I was a vig that was going to shoot a lurker, I'd be shooting someone like Vecna, Prof Fridays, or Princess Celestia who have no idea about their skill and who have been useless so far in the game.)

I'd say that's fair if you're judging solely on D1 play (as I missed the entirety of the duel, much to my chagrin), but I hope you're not making the claim I've been useless D2.

"WHY IS VOTING NEITHER ANTI-TOWN?"

WELL IT'S SIMPLE.

DO YOU THINK, IN THIS GAMESTATE, SCUM DUELED THEIR OWN TEAM?

NO.

SO WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IF YOU VOTE NIETHER IS "AFTER I SAW 2 KILLS N1 AND ONE KILL DAY 1, AND WE HAVE 5 DEAD TOWNIES, I'M OK WITH ONE TOWNIE DYING"

INSTEAD OF

I DON'T KNOW

READING EITHER ONE.

AND IF THEY'RE BOTH TOWN, PICK SOMEONE BASED ON FUCKING USEFULNESS.

KILLING THEM BOTH IS BAD BAD BAD BAD BAD.

ALSO, 2 KILLS LAST NIGHT, SO LET'S EVEN ASSUME BEST CASE SCENARIO.

SCUM/SERIAL KILLER DUELED OTHER POTENTIAL SCUM TEAM/SERIAL KILLER.

ODDS OF THAT VERY LOW SINCE SCUM PROBABLY WON'T BE CASUALLY DUELING, AND IF THEY ARE AS A GAMBIT IT WON'T BE ON SCUM MOST OF THE TIME.

SO ENOUHG LAZY VOTING PICK ONE.

You have to consider the converse as well--the probability of killing scum--with the duel mechanic. This post only really addresses the probability of killing town, which tbf, is higher when we pick neither versus when we go with one and lynch them.

The only thing that I think may be clearly better about choosing someone over neither (besides the accountability issue which I already kinda addressed) is that scum should be more inclined to shoot the winner of the duel since I'm willing to think that a good number of abilities require Energon to use (and there are also the hidden scrap abilities as well!) That's good in a way because 1) if we have two anti-town killers, they may end up shooting the same target (which should be a good thing) and 2) it helps protects other valuable town players

EBWOP for clarity.

The thing is, even if IN THEORY we have better scum-killing probabilities with a neither vote, that completely rules out reads (and a good town should be able to just read the scum and lynch just him) and the fact that our town PRs need to win duels for PRs. Consistent neither votes make town a conglomerate of useless VTs. The cons for voting neither seem, in general, much too high. I'd rather take the risk of misreading a scum, as that seems decidedly lower.

Examining the motivations for dueling seems like it leads you invariably toward a town read on Porkens.

But isn’t that a WIFOM argument?

Not a true WIFOM, no (a true WIFOM being 50/50). You could say it's 70/30 WIFOM in favor of town. I mean, many arguments are WIFOM with varying probabilities. In this case we're dealing with more than just two men and two glasses of wine.

I'd say it's more like 60/40 WIFOM in favor of town (at best and just based on the probability being greater that someone is town than scum) which I don't consider high enough odds to not be in favor of just policy-lynching Porkens.

Agree to disagree. I won't hold it against you.

If we continue to play in the manner we have been, we'll need town powers to game solve at this rate.

andddddd my toog townread is gone

Is this in response to the above Toogeloo post? Because he's not wrong.

​

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Fundamental Theorem (100%) : Role PM

DrippingGoofball (100%) : Laserbeak, Decepticon Mini-Cassette Reconnaissance (Shot day 1).

Firebringer (100%) : Onslaught, Combaticon Strategist (Lost duel day 1).

Katsuki (100%) : Dirge, Seeker Doppleganger (Lost duel day 1).

Fate (100%) : Swindle, Combaticon Profiteer (Killed night 1).

RadiantCowbells (100%) : Bombshell, Insecticon Neutralizer (Killed night 1).

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Creature (+61%) : He is engaged in the game, and he really feels like town in general.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Antihero (+15%) : I like 280 (from an alignment-determining standpoint.)

Dramonic (+5%) : Haven't really done much this game, but I agree with their Seal scumread (as in the scumread itself, not the reasons which weren't really given except an associative tell.)

The Worst (+3%) : I can believe they originally thought they were a mafia traitor at first, but I'm not 100% convinced this is town yet.

Gamma Emerald (+2%) : The 180 in 1079 is pretty bad imo, but the rest of the ISO seems pretty nullish/semi-decent.

Papa Zito (-15%) : I don't really like 1099, and I find 1147 a little suspicious, but I'm not convinced either is alignment-indicative.

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Skygazer (+49%) : They left a pretty good early impression. That said, I'm not sure what to think about 476 and 480. 488 seems bad, but I'm actually kinda inclined to lean towards town for that particular post. 527 is just bad as it tries to assign motivation to the ordering when said motivation likely doesn't exist. I did like their posts at the start of day 2.

Lady Lambdadelta (+44%) : Despite being completely absent day 1, I've liked their contributions for day 2 in terms of their alignment. For instance, 1007 registers as a town post to me (though I know that Lambdadelta is known for using a great degree of AtE.) 1020 and 1050 have a town!vibe as well.

Spiffeh (+40%) : Eh, they seem town for the time being. I'm inclined to townread them somewhat for their argument that Porkens is town because scum wouldn't duel, even if I don't really agree with the logic 100%.

Garmr (+35%) : Their posts in general have been pretty good.

Brian Skies (-31%) : I really dislike their 79 where they ask us to ignore a vote of theirs because it was simply done to be aggravating. 471 really pings, but I'm not sure why. Their comment in 1082 (and a similar comment or two later on) also didn't really sound like town. There was also the fact that they were really pressing to be a sacrifice in a duel with me at the start of day 2--it's odd to say the least, but makes me lean towards town (with respects to that). I'm still getting an overall scum-feel here.

rb (-35%) : Their posts in general just ping me, though it may just be me disagreeing with their initial reads (and then tunneling them to an extent).

Porkens (-38%) : I don't like how they spend a bunch of their first few posts just quoting stuff and calling it scum, but that may just be a playstyle issue. Also, how does my 107 make me scum? I'm also really annoyed by the sheer anti-town nature of their duel day 2, but I'm not naive enough to assume it *must* come from scum.

Stungun0404 (-43%) : There seems to be quite a few IIoA posts in this ISO. For instance, 64 (about being familiar with Creature's meta) and 100 (setup spec about the number of scum) are examples of IIoA. I also have a serious issue with their reads in 611. And I dislike 620 as well... (Their day 2 posts seem a bit better, but meh...)

MariaR (-44%) : I really dislike 377. While I don't want to resurrect that argument, MariaR's behavior on page 18 or so pinged me as well. The fact that MariaR in 675 says Katsuki's behavior is not scum-indicative doesn't really say much about Katsuki's alignment. In particular, with the way MariaR is defending Katsuki, I would think they would (as town) point out how Katsuki is town this game, not how they aren't necessarily scum. Their day 2 posts don't really seem that much better.

Prof Fridays (-45%) : 1039 really rubs me the wrong way. 1059 does as well--I think it's the apathetic feel to the comment that gives me scum!feels. 1076 really sounds like scum that *knows* Porkens is town.

Toogeloo (-47%) : Their posts in general strike a scum!chord to me. The thing that seems to stick out about their posts is that they seem to be LAMIST in nature. For instance, 322 has that LAMIST feel. 330 has that feel as well. (Note: While nothing has really changed my mind about this slot, the confidence rating dropped significantly because I think I may have been biasing myself too much against them.)

Gammagooey (-49%) : Their day 1 contributions were minimal. 960 feels off in a way. I'm also not sure what to think about the continued reference to Dynasty Warriors, but I have to admit, I'd probably lean towards town on that aspect. 1001 gives scum!vibes as well. 1012 is objectively bad play. I also don't see what about Porken's claim makes Gammagooey 180 in 1089.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
UnrealSeal (-70%) : I have many issues with this ISO. For instance, 18 is an objectively bad post and feels like scum!Seal trying to pocket and/or buddy Creature. (This is regardless of the fact that it was an exaggeration.) 31 pings me as well. I don't really like 176 because saying someone pings due to asking for a speedlynch sounds much more like a policy reason than a legitimate scumping. Apparently, it doesn't take long for their pings to turn into a full-fledged scumread in 192, but that doesn't mean the reasoning really got any better. Their defense of Katsuki in posts like 281 strikes me as being too forceful/aggressive. 302 is really bad when you consider other posts they have made (like 281). Then we also have posts like 467 (bad logic; get the feeling that Unreal is purposely trying to paint this a certain way) and 469 (where they admit they aren't interested in sorting...) As far as day 2 goes, their ISO really hasn't improved that much. Lady Lamdadelta brought up some decent points against them.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this readslist

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player.

Please note that the Null an Neutral sections contain both townreads and scumreads and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a logarithmic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be greater than ther difference between 30% and 60%.

(Updated reads--a good portion is the same from my previous reads, but I did update a large portion of it as well.)

hey

alright... so first things first everyone should absolutely vote one of us and neither is absolutely an awful vote for reasons that, judging by the last vote count, everyone seems to already get so that's good

that said VOTE: antihero

all caught up on here's where i am on reads so far

[Skygazer, MariaR, Fundamental Theorem, Porkens, Spiffeh, Toogeloo, UnrealSeal, stungun0404, Lady Lambdadelta, Gammagooey]
[rb, the worst]
null line --> [BlueBloodedToffee, dramonic, Gamma Emerald, Papa Zito, Creature, Princess Celestia, Vecna]
[Brian Skies]
[Garmr, Prof Fridays]

have a bunch of various townleans that i don't think many ppl disagree with w maybe the exception of maria (there was a post she made that i read and thought "too ballsy/needlessly inflammatory to be scum") or maybe porkens...? (while maybe brash and premature, i don't see scum doing what he did after seeing the last impulse dueler go up in flames, not to mention the "GIMME POWERS" feels pretty genuine to me) so that's all i'm gonna say about that for now

rb and worst tier, i haven't rly found anything to explicitly townread them on but i kind of feel like both of them have posted enough to where i think i would feel scumvibes by now if they actually were scum

null people either haven't posted or haven't rly done anything. (creature, i would move down to outright scum if this game is multiball. he's been posting so he's not playing to his "scum meta" per se but he's been enough of a nonentity to where if he WERE posting genuine naked reads while trying to avoid doing anything of consequence to draw attention as multiball scum, i wouldn't be surprised.)

for brian, i kind of feel like he's been drumming on this "plz kill me" thing enough wo replacing out to where it feels kinda fake and it's a psyche out to get townread. plus he hasn't given out any reads that make me think "yeah that's legit" (the gammagooey read is meh)

garmr's mostly a gutread and also based on tone i guess...? i feel like he's trying really, really hard to endear himself to everyone and i also haven't seen any reads from him that i thought "oh that's a good read."

prof friday has a few posts (19 total) and it's a bit but it also feels like he's very purposefully saying JUST ENOUGH to avoid being called a lurker while trying to not make a splash. Post 1039 the generalization "here's who's scum" wo any follow through NAMING NAMES is a good example of this. it also kinda feels like he's trying to stick to spiffeh a little.

A few things here about scum reads on me. First, I think Fundamental Theorem's is fair in a sense; after his post, I think a scum-read on me is too easy, and thus I take points away from Antihero. I was absolutely sticking to Spiffeh, because I agree wholeheartedly with his conclusions thus far. I'll echo someone all the way if I agree with them. I have no shame in that. I'll give you that I haven't had the most original content to post that would make sense for a scum-read on me, but I feel like my obvious buddying doesn't give me a lot of credit as scum!Prof Fridays (which I realize is WIFOM, but still! Maybe I'm just slightly offended, haha). All the same, it's fair to say I ought to contribute more (and more meaningfully), which I will endeavor to do, though I will say I'm moving this week, so keeping up will be slightly harder than normal.


A summary of the case for Porkens and my current reads list incoming.