Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Gustavo]

Pretty sure nauci hammered.

[Errantparabola]

k thats fine

[Gustavo]

Lazy ass mod needs to do a VC

[BlackVoid]

Really, what's up with this game and everyone being nuts about suspecting me. He's hammered and I really hope that ends the game. I'm getting tired of dealing with the paranoia.

Mod saying he's not going to be back for several hours. I PM'd him when the hammer happened.

[Errantparabola]

sorry bv and i've felt really similarly this game
like on balance you're really towny and I think worst really doesnt plausibly fake guilty a partner (...on day 2...) and i hope that NM flips scum here but i just feel like he wont

[Gustavo]

Really, what's up with this game and everyone being nuts about suspecting me. He's hammered and I really hope that ends the game. I'm getting tired of dealing with the paranoia.

Mod saying he's not going to be back for several hours. I PM'd him when the hammer happened.

I just never got any genuineness from you. To me your posts just fell flat and you weren’t focusing on the right things imo.

[Nauci]

Irrelephant/Keyser: just to be safe (and extra paranoid), read over/evaluate Skitter's ISO if NM flips green. I trust y'all both on alignment and judgment to town a victory (which is why I cleared you two and claimed today instead of tomorrow).

If Skitter is scum though she deserves this victory hand over fist.

[brassherald]

Locked as I do the VC.

[brassherald]

5 Presidents never gave an inaugural speech.

Votecount 4.Final

Not_Mafia (5)

~ BlackVoid, Irrelephant11, Gustavo, Errantparabola, Nauci

Errantparabola (1)

~ Not_Mafia

Not Voting (2)

~ skitter30, Keyser Soze

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Day 4 ends in (expired on 2018-08-01 08:00:00)

A lynch has been achieved.

[brassherald]

End of Day 4

Good morning once again, didn't expect to see you all here again so quickly, our panel has decided, however, that the history of Not_Mafia and his relative silence in "Casing individuals" makes the Quick Post Party candidate uniquely unqualified to be the President. He was paired with Millard Fillmore,

Vanilla Townie

.

Spoiler: Rolecard

Millard Fillmore

Welcome,

Invisibility

Not_Mafia! You are likeable, deliberate and kind of look like Alec Baldwin, and as such are paired with the clone of Millard Fillmore

Vanilla Townie

.

Abilities:

"Honorable defeat is better than a dishonorable victory.":

During the day phase, you have your vote, and your voice.

Win Conditions:

"May God save the country, because it is evident that the people will not.":

You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

Please confirm your role through a PM of your alignment and role.

Night 4 now begins, and ends in (expired on 2018-07-25 20:00:00)

[brassherald]

Start of Day 5

Good morning. Today we mourn the death of a presidential candidate connected with the clone of both a Chief Justice and a President. Nauci, of the Hillary For Reals This Time Party, has been found dead in her hotel room. The facts surrounding her death are mysterious, but I'm sure all the parties at the event will blame the other party. She was William Howard Taft,

Town Neopolitan

Spoiler: Rolecard

William Howard Taft

Welcome, Nauci! You are steeped in wisdom and have been paired with the clone of William Howard Taft,

Town Neapolitan

.

Abilities:

Judicial Review:

Taft was the only President who also held the position of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States of America, as such, he became a very good judge of character. During the Each night phase, you may target one player in the game to investigate them. You will receive a result of "Vanilla Townie", "Not Vanilla Townie", or "No Result".

"The trouble with me is that I like to talk too much.":

During the day phase, you have your vote, and your voice.

Win Conditions:

"We are all imperfect. We can not expect perfect government.":

You win if all threats to the town are eliminated and at least one town-aligned player is alive.

Please confirm your role through a PM of your alignment and role.

With 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
Day 5 ends in (expired on 2018-08-04 21:30:00)

[BlackVoid]

Okay, glad Nauci is dead. I'm in the process of writing up a very detailed analysis of the game. I went in with the assumption that Gustavo was the final scum but I saw quite a bit from his predecessor that was towny that makes me think something is very wrong and felt I had to re-evaluate Nauci.

So, we're at six alive, two confirmed, four not confirmed. It's not skitter so it has to be pretty much between Gustavo and Errant.

I also want to point out that there are some anti-associations between my predecessor and Gemini/TheWorst which make it less likely that I'm scum. 340 is rather early for bussing and scum don't typically make vague inferences to conversations they've had if they want to bus. 389 is also a "kill me or you'll regret it" crumb which I think is baiting a nightkill.

That's in addition to the fact that TheWorst really wanted me dead on D3. AND the fact that faking a guilty on a stronger player makes no sense. AND the fact that I had to come in double-bussing both my partners if I'm scum here.

[skitter30]

actually i dislike(d, pretty sure i said this earlier at some point) 340 because math told me she could be sorted by postcount and she hadn't posted enough for that to be a thing yet imo

like i had just played 1872 with math and gemini and mislynched her for asking safe questions and just being there without really having any strong opinions and in post-game math told me that she should be read by postcount, so the fact that he found her scummy there for doing just that in her four posts was weird to me; like from that convo from the week before he ought to have been reading her as nai/town, not scummy

i brought that up but math disappeared into the ether so never really followed up with it

like idk if that's an associative tell but it's a very very odd post from math in that context and doesn't really match the mindset he'd exhibited when we had talked before the game started

[BlackVoid]

I still think it was rather early for bussing and why would he bring up suspicion of his buddy when there was no real need to? I don't know if I'm making a conf-biased argument here knowing that he was town. But there's still the fact that some of his posts are crumbing bulletproof.

[skitter30]

you're really *that* confident that i'm town here that you're just taking me out of the lynchpool unilaterally?

i kinda want to townread you but as the number of players dwindle i'm kinda wondering if it's you

the way ep handled tw's claim felt really town to me

and stungun was super town; and gustavo's aggression/complete non-understanding of the gamestate are kinda town too (although wrong)

like nauci said she was satisfied with your response to her case but i just kiinda ... wasn't? i guess? like it didn't feel right.

i'm trying to find the words .... you felt kinda I guess dismissive of everyone's scumreads? like trying to dismiss the concerns people had as some extreme levels of paranoia that weren't really warranted, but like, i kinda understand the concerns over your slot right at that point quite a lot; like i guess i'm comparing this to the space newbie where i was tunneled on you and you spent like a week trying to talk to me out of it. you weren't dismissing me as being paranoid!town but legitimately thought scum!me was trying to mislynch you

i didn't really read anything over night so i'm going back now to try to remember why your play at the end of day3 and day4 was bothering me

i still feel like you were trying to rush the end of day4 which seems kinda unchracteristic of you;

and that you're trying to show that math was crumbing bp alot like that it should be clearing; i don't find the crumbs particularly strong but either way i don't really think whether or not math crumbed bp is that important wrt your alignment

what i did find more compelling is a point from nauci where she pointed out that if you're bp you seemed to be townreading gustavo to some degree or another for probably being shot; the possibility that you were shot didn't really seem to enter your thought process till much later, till the tw thing

also i'm kinda wondering if your strong townread of me is you trying to pocket me. also if you were trying to make me paranoid of nauci

i'm not really familair with your scumrange that much tho and i feel like the analysis is pretty town? i think i need to like actually read your iso from nsg's game

and really look over your posts from the end of day3/day4

[skitter30]

(i guess i'm just rambling a bit as a try to figure this out)

from bernie we know that there's a rb and/or jk. since they've been killing the prs instead of rb'ing them, going back to n2, i think it's a reasonable assumption that it's 1shot

did gustavo ever claim?

so:

even-night doc
tracker
nea
neighborizer(?)
1sbp(?)

1srb(?)
encryptor
goon

this looks about right to me. i kinda think that on baseless setup spec that without the 1sbp it's kinda scum-sided? not sure tho and i wouldn't really base reads on this sort of analysis here

both gustavo and bv are very odd kills n1 tbh. i geuss bv makes more sense if if tw is scum and was pr-reading math? idk.

i feel like bv is kinda over-focused on the 1sbp thing and showing that math had crumbed. i don't know if those claims are really strong but i also don't think the crumbs are really relevant; like i don't think scum really reads those posts as pr tbh

and i'm very confused at tw trying to bus his partner and hoping to coast on that because people would expect fo rhim to be dead before endgame

i guess on associatives i think tw/bv doesn't really make sense but play-wise i townread everyone else more

[skitter30]

i really like your analysis tho

[skitter30]

Something I wanted to comment on right before I left, I had some misgivings about my Irrelephant read. Basically came down to feeling like there was some genuineness behind his push on me/trying to figure out my alignment. It's going to take some substantial re-evaluation of the game to actually consider a town-Irrelephant worldview considering how certain I was most of the game but I did feel like Nauci was taking advantage of the fact that me and Irrelephant were tunneling each other and tried to pocket him and push back on me since I wanted her dead anyway.

like idk if scum you reconsiders here or feels the need to start to limit your potential lynchpool

[skitter30]

i think i need to reread day4 and also early game and probably tw's iso at some point

i don't think realistically that i'm going to do that today tho; maybe tomorrow

(i'm in a bit of a depression thing and my motivation isn't super high atm)

[BlackVoid]

the way ep handled tw's claim felt really town to me

and stungun was super town; and gustavo's aggression/complete non-understanding of the gamestate are kinda town too (although wrong)

These are both true which is why I'm kinda worried about this game. One of them played a really good scumgame.

I probably need to clarify - I never said or implied that Gustavo was town because he was the N1 nightkill. I was reading him purely based off of his and his predecessor's play, mostly the latter. Other people have been using the nightkill as a further amplification for their reasoning but not me.

I guess the one mistake I made this game strategically is to not crumb my role. While reading Bernie and TheWorst claim that they were the N1 nightkill, I was tempted to crumb. Ultimately I decided against it because I didn't want to give scum any hint of my role for fear they might have a strongman or some sort of piercing kill. The fact that two other people claimed it made me think that there were multiple town protectives of some sort and that this was part of the setup design. That also made me hesitate on TheWorst a bit.

I was mostly trying to avoid a nightkill because I figured the longer we were both alive to gamesolve, the more certain a town win would be. I didn't really consider the possibility of needing a crumb to avoid a mislynch. I've only been mislynched once (the game that we played together). In general, I'm very good at not getting lynched as town - I thought even more so in this game because you were here and even if somehow I got suspected, you'd talk everyone down because you know my play. On hindsight, I probably should have crumbed as a contigency plan in case the pressure turned on me.

I obviously didn't/don't think Irrelephant/Nauci/Rask were scum trying to mislynch me. The fact that Rask voted me despite having a guilty on TheWorst does come across as baseless paranoia. He went so far as to think there were some sort of redirectors in the game: anything to see me as scum. Nauci made some good points which I acknowledged but also a lot of silly conf-biased ones.

I wasn't trying to make you paranoid of Nauci. I actually really nailed behaviors of Nauci's that came from an informed perspective. Her suspicion of me. Her read on Irrelephant. Her claiming that you were mindmelding with her while never trying to see eye to eye on those reads. I was wrong about why she was informed. But I really don't think I'd be capable of looking at the game so deeply that I'd spot legitimate informed-tells from townies as scum.

Regarding rushing the end of the day: I thought Not_Mafia was scum and wanted him dead before everyone somehow convinces themselves out of it. Given the state of the town at that point, I didn't feel like any other lynch was viable anyways and I couldn't even really consider any of Gustavo/Errant being scum while Not_Mafia was still alive. I wanted him flipped. If he flipped town, and then Nauci flipped town like I hoped, then I'd at least know for sure that one of Gustavo/Errant are scum and look to see where I could have gone wrong. It didn't really feel like everyone was logically considering all alternatives. More like looking for an excuse to call me scum, so yeah I wanted to get that N_M lynch over with. If that ends the game (I'd have given it like 70% odds), great. If not, I know for sure one of my townreads was wrong.

I just don't see you playing this way as scum. I doubt you'd disagree that your play here is very, very well outside your scumrange.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know much about depression but I wish you the best in getting well.

[Gustavo]

I didn’t think I was the NK target. I thought shos was stupid to save me. I honestly felt I’m being saved for lylo. My gut says one of the claims is fake. I’ve searched the archived games and when scum has an encryptor, scum never have a neighborizer. I found one game where scum had a BP RBer and an encryptor and town had a neighborizer but I actually can see errant being scum here. He had a vote on tw and he was late and no reason. He had a vote on mom that’s again was late and no reason.

I don’t really have a read on skitter yet but nobody else seems to think he’s scum so it’s not worth looking there I guess. I will before the day ends.

So if we can eliminate skitter, We need to either lynch one of those bv/ errant today or lynch me and y’all deal with which one of the remaining tomorrow.

Logic says bv today. My heart/gut says it’s errant.

We obviously have time so when I have more of it I’ll do some more reading.

[Gustavo]

And I now immediately regret making this post now. I should have let errant post first.

[Errantparabola]

Can’t post until tomorrow/friday maybe, skimming until then
Or you can just lynch me before then and save me the work because I have no effin idea who it is, just can’t help but feel like somehow we’re inevitably going to choke and lose this game

[Gustavo]

Votecount 1.Final
Gamma Emerald(7) ~ Mathdino, Shoshin, Not_Mafia, Gustavo, the worst, Irrelephant11, Bernie Sanders

So this is mostly town lead. If one scum that’s tw. If 2, math/myself

momrangal (6)~ Bernie Sanders, skitter30, Errantparabola, the worst, Irrelephant11, Gustavo,Not_Mafia

If 1 scum same as above.

If 2 scum - me/errant/skitter

the worst (6)~ Gustavo, Errantparabola, Bernie Sanders, Nauci, Keyser Soze, BlackVoid

If scum is on its me/errant/bv

If scum is off it’s skitter.


I was kind of hoping to learn something. I didn’t

Ok I’m v/la for the next couple of days. I’ll relook at that when I come back.