Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Irrelephant11]

Without having done much deep reading yet my impulse is to lynch BV or Gustavo. Interesting that the flavor matches the claim for BV and EP (though why is BV

1

SBP if he survived two assassinations? Might be something?)

I'll probably try to look for scum!EP and scum!skitter first to make sure I'm not excluding people just off feel

[skitter30]

(though why is BV 1SBP if he survived two assassinations? Might be something?)

i don't think this is significant

[Irrelephant11]

do you think claims matching flavor is?

[skitter30]

eh, the connection has been kinda tenuous throughout so i'm not reading much into it

like taft was a good judge of character so nauci was a vanilla cop

Mending a Nation: Abraham Lincoln lead the United States in the Great American Civil War to bring a divided nation back together. On odd numbered nights, you may attempt to protect one player in the game from being nightkilled.

or this

like the connections aren't really strong enough for me to judge if a claim is real or not based on flavor

[brassherald]

I have posted all information from the two flipped scum, if the information you are looking for is not there, it was not provided for them

[Gustavo]

Thanks. Apparently it was my fault not yours.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm coming around to town on stungun

Math is sketchy.

Keyset is a slight townlean, but not as strongly as a lot of people are making him out to be.

I'm re-evaliating shoshin; still dont like her RVS but I like her more recent posts (esp 273 iirc)

I dont really like momrangel or gamma.

I dont think I have strong opinions on anyone else atm. Or at least, if I do, it's not coming to mind.

I'm not sure if scum!you jumps into the thread confidently voting someone that is being largely townread.

duckling, you're kinda gut-pinging me as scum btw

I'm kinda tending towards there actually tbh.

I really didn't like how he approached the gemini slot given newbie 1872.

I'm kinda waiting for him to talk about it and I'm willing to give him some time for a benefit-of-doubt thing.

I agree that the gimmick may be what's weird about him right now, but continuing that when people have said it's making him hard to read is :/

He was scum in a hydra in open 710 but he repped out pretty early after his partner repped out

You expect me to lead when I still gotta read
I don't see a need, laying low is my creed

math when you read I do want you to elaborate on your gemini thoughts

keyser where you at? This is a strugggggle

Like they all make similar amounts of sense as the remaining scum

[Irrelephant11]

whoops, forgot I had those in my quotewall but, well there's some stuff from skitter about mom and tw. I think ithese quotes are more likely to come from town!skitter, so there's that. Unless her plan from D1 was to bus them both and never let up, which is an option but a weird one. Also 303 is in the middle of a conversation between skitter and tw that couuuuuld be theater but I don't *think* it is?

[Gustavo]

So I personally think it should be me or bv today. Obviously I’d prefer bv over me but I’ll go if it makes it easier.

Those posts by skitter makes me feel like it’s not him

Bv didn’t vote mom and only voted the worst due to the whole fake claim thing. I wouldn’t put it past the worst to fake a guilty on his partner.

I voted both mom and the worst. I also think while some people may hate my play, it literally makes no sense for me to play like this as scum.

VOTE: bv

I don’t really think I need to put effort into today since it’s not mylo/lylo.

[Irrelephant11]

skitter you've expressed a lot of paranoia about getting pocketed by BV, I'd love it if you could examine through re-read how likely you think that is

[skitter30]

huh, in retrospect gemini replacing out just after vizzy voted her should have townspewed nm actually

p-edit - ok i'll keep that in mind when i get that far

[Irrelephant11]

mmm the more I re-read the more I'm led to lynch BV

but also my re-read has largely not included EP? so that's concerning. I guess just by happenstance/his semi-lurky state, that I need to go examine further.

It's nice being confirmed town really makes this less stressful

[Keyser Söze]

Im Woodrow wilson, on the lines of using my own brain... and borrowing others.

I’m back home so reading through latest two pages, then ISO diving. Gonna just try pick out key posts that shout town or scum. Anything I’m uncertain on I’m not gonna bother highlighting.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm FDR, and my quotes are surprisingly fitting for the game of mafia :thumbs up:

[Keyser Söze]

Looking at N_M’s wagon, wasn’t it BV the only player saying why N_M was town? Gonna re-read why BV ended up on his wagon.

[Irrelephant11]

On my phone cause campus internet’s down. I will respond to things later
Here is a very rough, but well ordered set, of my reads


Bernie
Nauci
Irre
Keyser
Shoshin
Gustavo
BlackVoid
Skitter
NotMafia
Worst
Mom

i cant wait for mom and the worst to both inexplicably flip town and for us to lose the game

a) being waffle-y about the gamma wagon and i still don't know why you think i took that out of context

b) there's a lot of mysterious townreads on you that i can't get anyone to explain satisfactorily

c) you were gamma's counterwagon and i couldn't get the wagon to have more than three votes - it faced an *insane* amount of resistance and nobody could explain why

d) you've done like nothing townie the whole game

Okay, so here's what I'm thinkin about Mom.
a) isn't scummy. b) isn't scummy.
c) is a salient point here, I think? d) i agree with a lot, ESPECIALLY in context with her response to pressure today

But this reaction is kind of evasive and somewhat talking around the point or of making judgment.

Like, mom cited a case that was made, presumably, a long time ago, rather than hashing something out again, like I would expect someone who was really convinced of a scumread that they'd held for a long time. And I agree that it gives me a weird gut feeling but ?? ??

Also WTF everyone left that wagon and it was between stay as a single vote or hop on to duck who I've had the most reason to believe as mom partner so far this game.

based on how the wagons have played out (today specifically), I would be surprised if they were partners. But I think I'd be interested in seeing someone like Nauci analyse it. I guess consider me a willing vote on either for now

This pinged. This is a game of perceptions and to do well as town, you need to read people correctly and be read correctly.
...

I actually don't like anything you've written under the heading of yourself. Why give bullet-points when you don't like self-meta?

this is the most incorrect thing that BlackVoid has said so far I think
Other than that I think his catchup has mildly positively impacted the game but no read yet

Nauci's Irrelephant push in 702 and 704 felt genuine. The more I think about it, I actually don't think that after a great game as scum together, Nauci's strategy in the next game she plays with Irrelephant is to keep pushing for his mislynch on the basis of his good scumplay.....

I agree with this wholeheartedly (assuming that I accept the premise, and theres no reason i wouldnt) i think with the events of this day I'd tend towards putting nauci as more confidently town and irrelephant as less town but still town

Why didn't you react to Nauci this way? Or even Errant? Both of whom make long posts in a similar way to BV?

holy shit guys.
I'm a longposter now. i'm never like this, but this game has just been so nice

It might not matter, but can you respond to my mom points and tell me why you have a TW preference.

I'll put some more weight behind this question and say that I think this matters a lot especially if there is exactly one scum between Mom and the worst, given the timing of irre's vote (it matters a lot less if it's 0 or 2)

there's *quite* a few signs pointing to partners despite this

do me a favor and give me the fast rundown on these?

Bernie, question:
a) are you a public alt? if so, who are you?
b) if not, have we played together? do you have an existing impression of me?

Not really thinking it's EP still

-if scum, does everything he can to help his partners get lynched
-seems to really enjoy being a part of the playerlist and having so many strong town players which is just a tone thing but I think it comes from town more than scum in this particular game

[Keyser Söze]

Reading through EP first.
Then BV.
Then Gustavo.
Then Skitter.

If I get at least two strong town reads out of this I will be delighted.

[Keyser Söze]

D1

No longer townreading worst.

D3:

I neighborized worst.

Why?

cause i thought he was town d1 and we're friends and i like him

[BlackVoid]

So I personally think it should be me or bv today. Obviously I’d prefer bv over me but I’ll go if it makes it easier.

Those posts by skitter makes me feel like it’s not him

Bv didn’t vote mom and only voted the worst due to the whole fake claim thing. I wouldn’t put it past the worst to fake a guilty on his partner.

I voted both mom and the worst. I also think while some people may hate my play, it literally makes no sense for me to play like this as scum.

VOTE: bv

I don’t really think I need to put effort into today since it’s not mylo/lylo.

I feel like the not-voting thing has been addressed many times already. "Not voting Momrangal" is a pretty bad reason when considering the context which has also been explained multiple times.

Why wouldn't you need to put effort in today? If we're both lynched in some order today and tomorrow, that would pretty much hand Errant the win if he's scum.

Each of us should be assuming a worst-case scenario: that one of the lynches will be us. There is one other lynch. So, we should be attempting to nail scum with that lynch. That means you should actually be putting maximum effort to figure out which of me or Errant it is.

[Keyser Söze]

Errantparabola ISO re-read to the END OF DAY 2.

THE GOOD

"Given the circumstances I'd say it's a plausible bus but that's crazy speculatory (although you heard it here first if i'm right !!)"

Errant expressing some healthy scum team paranoia between mom and Gamma.

"I think in the event that mom flips scum and TW is town, that irre deserves scrutiny"

Hmmm... some clever pre-flip analysis there... this would be cheeky by scum-Errant, knowing that TW is not town.

"i cant wait for mom and the worst to both inexplicably flip town and for us to lose the game"

Again, this is cheeky as f**k. WIFOM makes you t/read these type of posts. I do fel guilty puttin this in the GOOD category though.

THE WEIRD

"I have a dumb reason to townread the worst that I might go into later but probably not so just assume I'm right :>"
"I think worst's response to this question "oh he's just natural" seemed kind of fake so that's leaving me a little conflicted"
"Town or vague town or at least one concrete reason for town: the worst, Irre, Nauci, Shoshin, Bernie, Keyser"

Strange post about withholding a town read on scum-TW, followed by an observation calling TW fake... ending with TW in his town list (?)

"think that Key is so much scummier than the other two that you consider it a good move to try and start a wagon on him as opposed to joining a wagon"

Shos mentions a key/TW/mom scum team. Errant dislikes Shos' vote on me, instead of joining the existing wagons on TW/mom. Kinda feels like Errant is telling off Shos here, where Errant knows I'm town... and TW/mom are scum.

THE BAD

"based on how the wagons have played out (today specifically), I would be surprised if they were partners"
"I'll put some more weight behind this question and say that I think this matters a lot especially if there is exactly one scum between Mom and the worst, given the timing of irre's vote (it matters a lot less if it's 0 or 2)"

Just feel like Errant is trying to force us into thinking that the TW/mom wagons weren't both on scum.



[So far Errant isn't screaming town for me...D3 and D4 ISO next.]

[BlackVoid]

* To clarify, I mean each of me, Gustavo, and Errant.

[BlackVoid]

Isn’t he Lynched?

Anyways I just read some ISO’s. I feel good with nm being the last scum.

Whose ISOs did you read? I'm assuming this means you found other people town so who and why?

[BlackVoid]

I didn’t think I was the NK target. I thought shos was stupid to save me. I honestly felt I’m being saved for lylo. My gut says one of the claims is fake. I’ve searched the archived games and when scum has an encryptor, scum never have a neighborizer. I found one game where scum had a BP RBer and an encryptor and town had a neighborizer but I actually can see errant being scum here. He had a vote on tw and he was late and no reason. He had a vote on mom that’s again was late and no reason.

I don’t really have a read on skitter yet but nobody else seems to think he’s scum so it’s not worth looking there I guess. I will before the day ends.

So if we can eliminate skitter, We need to either lynch one of those bv/ errant today or lynch me and y’all deal with which one of the remaining tomorrow.

Logic says bv today. My heart/gut says it’s errant.

We obviously have time so when I have more of it I’ll do some more reading.

1. What does the bolded even mean?

2. You eliminate skitter because nobody else thinks she's scum?

3. If you don't think you were the NK target, then my slot has to be which basically confirms me so that sounds very illogical.

[BlackVoid]

For anyone suspecting me: you have to believe that Gustavo was the kill target N1. Except what motivation does scum have to kill someone who spent most of their time tunneling Shoshin and being a distraction?

My predecessor hinted at having a PR multiple times. There were scum like TheWorst who have experience with him and may have picked up on his PR tendencies. As far as I can see, there's nothing in Gustavo's posts that hint at having a PR.

On balance, I really don't understand why anyone thinks Gustavo is the more likely shot here.

[Gustavo]

Isn’t he Lynched?

Anyways I just read some ISO’s. I feel good with nm being the last scum.

Whose ISOs did you read? I'm assuming this means you found other people town so who and why?

I honestly don’t remember anymore.

1. What does the bolded even mean?

2. You eliminate skitter because nobody else thinks she's scum?

3. If you don't think you were the NK target, then my slot has to be which basically confirms me so that sounds very illogical.

1. It means that based on past setups it points to you. But my gut says errant
2. Not just because others town read her, but it means it requires a hell of a case to convince people and I don’t see the evidence for it.
3. You’re right. It’s illogical but scum has been illogical so far