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brassherald Mafia Scum
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- Keyser Söze
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Currently paranoid about the potential scum gambit of Errant faking a town-neighborizor role with TW... (who he himself probably faked a guilty on BV)...
Show me where Errant ended D1 t/reading TW...
D1 (I would have expected him to neighborize the following: "Keyser, Bernie, Irre are varying degrees of town.")
Was the neighborizor-gambit talked about in scum chat throughout D2 and N2 (where scum realised TW was going down whatever).- Keyser Söze
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I’d expect one of these 2 to neighbor.In post 1665, Errantparabola wrote:my biggest reads are keyser and bernie as town.- Gustavo
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Last post before day ends.In post 1278, Errantparabola wrote:Town:
Keyser, Bernie, Irre are varying degrees of town.
throw in the worst and Gustavo as hail-mary going out on a limb town.- Keyser Söze
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i kinda skimmed through ~page 13.
math's still kinda meh and a lot of the things that was pinging me about him then also pinged me upon a re-read. still hate the rapping. he also notably refused to take a stance on tw more than once, which i thought was interesting. i still think that his approach to gemini was kinda weird given that prior convo we had.
stungun was quite suspicious of both gemini and mom very, very, very early, and there's a lot of anti-associatives between stungun and gemini on page 8 and honestly i'd be kinda impressed if newbscum distanced like that that early
(aside i just want to note that my reads in 376 were pretty good, especially for me in early game, and that if math was scum i bascailly had all three of them lol)
i shall update on my thoughts as i read more- skitter30
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i think that there isn't really a way to tell conclusively either way so i'm not paying that much attention to this piece of evidence.In post 3348, BlackVoid wrote:For anyone suspecting me: you have to believe that Gustavo was the kill target N1. Except what motivation does scum have to kill someone who spent most of their time tunneling Shoshin and being a distraction?
My predecessor hinted at having a PR multiple times. There were scum like TheWorst who have experience with him and may have picked up on his PR tendencies. As far as I can see, there's nothing in Gustavo's posts that hint at having a PR.
On balance, I really don't understand why anyone thinks Gustavo is the more likely shot here.
i think that gustavo is a very odd kill that night
i think that math is also very strange given how inactive he was, but makes slightly more sense given that tw flipped scum and math has caught scum!tw multiple times before and powerlynched him (a50's recent open, last iteration of stack-the-deck i think)
scumteam is: tw/mom/{one of bv(math), gustavo, ep} and i think that tw probably chooses who to kill in all three of these scumteams given that mom was out of it, maths' slot was basically empty overnight, gustavo i don't think had a super strong understanding of the gamestate, and ep was kinda out of it too iirc- skitter30
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the neighborizer claim + outing tw + tw interactions when tw fake-claimed all feel super town to meIn post 3352, Keyser Söze wrote:Can people show me why Errant is town outside the neighborizer claim.
nothing earlier than that really felt town- skitter30
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oh so my conclusion regarding this is that since tw is probably the one with the major input wrt who to kill, i can see him choosing to kill math; idk if i really see him choosing to kill gustavo there tbhIn post 3359, skitter30 wrote:i think that math is also very strange given how inactive he was, but makes slightly more sense given that tw flipped scum and math has caught scum!tw multiple times before and powerlynched him (a50's recent open, last iteration of stack-the-deck i think)
scumteam is: tw/mom/{one of bv(math), gustavo, ep} and i think that tw probably chooses who to kill in all three of these scumteams given that mom was out of it, maths' slot was basically empty overnight, gustavo i don't think had a super strong understanding of the gamestate, and ep was kinda out of it too iirc
i dont remember exactly what my read on him was at the end of day1 but i'm pretty sure i was strongl yindicated i was scumreading him so i'm low-key surprised that he didn't nk to me; he really had no chance in hell mislynching me this game so guess he decided to try to tie me to mom to shade me i guess, but htat didn't really work, idk what his plan was really- Errantparabola
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Errantparabola Composed.
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Still stuck to my phone but to be 100% w yall right now— i really have a hard time understanding how any of these three remaining people could be scum, like, I feel like I’m the objectively scummiest here. And personally I feel like its really frickin skeevy that Gustavo says “we should lynch between me and BV today” while simultaneously continuing to talk about how he actually thinks last scum is me, so id like you to go into that gustavo.
So if anyone wants to lynch me today and (maybe, probably) Gustavo tomorrow, I’d sign that bill if you catch my drift. And i get that BV thinks that “REAL town should NEVER accept that they get lynched in this situation” but i genuinely have no idea who the hell it could be, and I have a godawful track record endgame, and as town in general
so i am not about to tryhard just to fight a losing battle with whoever ends up in lylo and lose this game.did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!
Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.--implosion
provided- Errantparabola
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And for the record, i really dont want to go and figure out what i said or did or thought early game. It is what it is, take it as you will, etc but like i said i was basically talking out of my ass for a lot of it. Like i said, i’m originally in this game hecause i’d promised the mod i’d help out with replacements.did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!
Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.--implosion
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so irrelephant + keyser are town
and if i were scum i've basically won because i'm not really lynchable anymore so it's a good thing i'm not
i'm pretty good at lylo as town (only gotten lylo wrong once ), and even i if i don't win i'm pretty good at nailing scum when looking at the game holistically
basically so long as i get my motivation back to actually do my due diligence i don't really mind lylo that much. i kinda think that i have enough info from previous days to try to do that today but i don't have it in me right now to reread the whole game so i'm kinda postponing for a few real-life days till i can *effort*
ep - like the posts he's making today i'm pretty sure just don't come from scum. he's basically asking to get lynched because he doesn't want to do lylo and like ... unless he's scum who really just gave up and doesn't want to deal with endgame he's just town (and i'm not sure why scum!him feels this way given that he's in a pretty good spot here)
gustavo - stungun felt super super town and doesn't seem to be a partner with any of the flipped scum. i don't really feel like gustavo is trying to solve the game tho; like his posting today makes me feel like he doesn't really care who gets flipped
bv - don't really like day4 but i think mechanically prob isn't scum; think he makes more sense as the nk n1; is kinda out of his scumrange and his analysis just feels kinda town. still kinda paranoid tho
i guess i'm kinda at gustavo > bv > ep?
but i prob need to check scumgames of all 3 of them at some point
i guess whichever of the three of you it is, none of you feel much *urgency* at directing the lynch elsewhere since everyone is very lost rn- BlackVoid
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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Early interactions. I'l continue this over the next couple of days.
Stungun/Gustavo
12 - This is an interesting entrance. My first instinct is to dismiss it as partner interaction. I'm not sure how much weight I should put into this at this point. I've seen once before scum having early interactions with each other that didn't look like partners at first glance.
80 - I don't really think I understand his rationale behind the Keyser read. There's some vague "train of thought" argument but not very well-articulated.
109 - I didn't think the Shoshin response was very good. "It looks like you are trying to take advantage of a wagon forming on me is a pretty weak response. I think this was touched on before but Shoshin did start the wagon. The second paragraph is towny because he's bringing attention to a player who hasn't gotten attention before. Also, he's working with Gemini, discussing reads back and forth which if he's scum is definitely something they had to have planned.
114 - The flaw in Stungun's logic here is that just because Shoshin made an early push on MathDino doesn't mean she can't question Nauci's push on MathDino. I don't think Shoshin would have been so sure MathDino is scum that early in the game that anyone who also suspected him would be above questioning. It's somewhat unreasonable to expect her to behave that way but that's what Stungun is implying Shoshin should do.
124 - Interesting assertion. I'm not sure how much it can be backed up by looking through Stungun's games though.
177 - He scumreads Gemini as the person he next wants to vote for over NSG.
183 - Somewhat conflicted here. It looked town at first glance but I can't shake the feeling that he just wanted to look good upon a Gemini scumflip by claiming that they are opposing alignments. It feels like a bit of a stretch for town to make to say that Gemini's replace out was alignment indicative. He does acknowledge that it could just be Gemini being busy. But then why call it a scum-indicative replace out at all?
279 - Somewhat odd to be calling out Shoshin on her Momrangal townread while also hard-townreading her. The tone is dissonant almost as if he's setting up for a later attack on Shoshin if Momrangal flips.
280 - Initially felt like looking up games is towny but that was a rather conclusive statement. It's not really easy to tell differences apart.
281 - I pretty much agree that Momrangal shouldn't have been townread. I don't know if scum would make these posts. On balance, I think it's more likely town just because it was reasonable and made sense to me.
384 - I have a hard time deciding what to make of this because on the one hand, I like that he's trying to townread Bernie and asking for links to previous games. The attempt to develop a read seems genuine and also matches with his belief that his townreads are more accurate so are more important to develop. The problem I have is that I don't agree with anything he said about Bernie's content. Bernie was emanating townvibes from his posts before this.
399 - I like that he called out TheWorst's townread of him and his paranoia of NSG based on previous game.
Northsidegal/ErrantParabola
97 - This is actually a good vote from Northsidegal. I wish she explained it. But Momrangal's first posts were pretty bad and scummy so I think it's more likely townie intuition than early scum distancing.
Gemini/TheWorst
83 - I think this is another anti-tell with regard to Gustavo/Stungun. Unless scum pre-decided that they were going to look like they were working together which I guess isn't completely unreasonable.
116 - So Gemini is definitely not joining the Stungun wagon. I could see it meaning either alignment for Stungun though. If he's town, she knows him and would not want to wagon him.
296 - TheWorst claims he's not really seeing the townread on Stungun. Slight anti-association but I could see him asking why a buddy is being townread too.
305 - I think there's scum motivation here for TheWorst to follow skitter on the Stungun townread if he can use it as an opportunity to dismiss his buddy as town.- BlackVoid
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BlackVoid Mafia Scum
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@skitter, you could also read Stungun's offsite scumgames to get a better sense of his play. I had tracked down one of his scum PTs: https://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/GFAfbpTTAqAT (he's Liucci there) just to see what his range and internal scum thought process is like. The thing is if he's scum, he's rather good. I wouldn't say top level because most of the anti-associations are basically pushes on Momrangal and TheWorst and anyone can distance/bus. But definitely much better than a newbie. Specifically, his reaction to Gemini is nuanced in that he hopes that both of them are town and wants to work with her. If it wasn't for that, I think I'd be probably leaning Gustavo. I'm going to comment on Errant's posts when I get to it. Reading chronologically, Errant's slot doesn't have many early game interactions.- Gustavo
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It’s because I don’t. It’s not mylo/lylo. I’m also supposed to be on v/la so I can’t really do much. I’ve pretty much eliminated you. If you are scum nobody is seeing it so you’ll win. So that means from my POV it’s bv or errant which means town wins no matter what.In post 3364, skitter30 wrote:like his posting today makes me feel like he doesn't really care who gets flipped
If y’all want to lynch me today I already said that should be the choice. Me or bv.- Keyser Söze
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I’ve been reading BV’s 10-post-catch-up... and it does feel like he comes into the game knowing that mom/the worst are scum.In post 2649, Irrelephant11 wrote:Spoiler: Everything BV said about Mom up to 2517
tl;dr THERES A LOT
BV has very much to say about Mom, going so far as to make "Why did you say that about Mom?" a hallmark of his catchup process. He responds to probably more than a third of Mom's posts, critiquing them individually and never having anything positive to say. Maybe it's just me, but right off the bat BV seems informed about Mom's red alignment, aware Mom is a likely lynch for D2, and doing everything possible to stay away.
But that's not all!Blackvoid was the one to suggest both Mom/the worst claim, which given town!the worst sounds like a "hey any chance you're a juicier nk target than Shoshin/how can our team avoid your power?"
Finally, though Blackvoid ostensibly has Mom as her scummiest read, followed by errantparabola, then me, then tw, he says this in his last post of D2: "@Rask, I'm going to do an ISO of both Momrangal and TheWorst before putting down a vote but I'm actually leaning towards TheWorst at this point. Is there anything meta-wise I should know that makes him less likely to be scum?"
I'm kinda hoping it's just the worst and Not_Mafia because that's much easier to make happen but I think there should be a lot more eyes on this slot
I agree with that “Why did you say that about Mom?" remark. He questioned anyone defending Mom or The Worst. BV also provided very clear and accurate explanations of how TW/mom’s interactions were scum/scum interactions.
So are we saying BV replaces into this game to heavy bus TW/mom? (And to link as many townies to them as possible [i.e you])...?
I’m gonna read on... past his catchup now.- Gustavo
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- Keyser Söze
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Would wagonomics really dispel all of BV’s scum reads/theories/understanding of TW-Mom associations???In post 2342, BlackVoid wrote:The thing that makes me paranoid about the gamestate is that the people I find scummy (like Errant, TW) are okay with a Momrangal wagon and Irrelephant is okay with both. Gamestate-wise, Momra/TW are the two wagons likely to go through soI'm no longer considering them to be partners. One could be scum but not both. I really want to re-evaluate the people outside my strongest townpile but who are not actively in my scumpile which is Nauci/Keyser/Not_Mafia.
Think BV turned too easily away from TW-Mom here. They were both scummy slots.. why can’t they both be scum in isolation?
(I believe this point may have already been highlighted...)- Keyser Söze
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I like this post from BV though... it made me see Errant’s t/reads as insincere/unsupported.In post 2575, BlackVoid wrote:@ErrantP, okay let's "connect." I agree that skitter30, Bernie, Gustavo are town although Gustavo for different reasons than you so we're actually on the same page here. But let's talk about your second tier townreads. All of the reasons you posted for them are pretty vague and stuff that could easily come from either alignment that you just seem to be choosing to interpret as town.
Nauci is town for early game reasons and your intuition. Can you explain that some more?
Irrelephant is town to you because he said he was sheeping Bernie on Momrangal. I can understand the argument of "why would scum say they are sheeping when they would want cred for a bus?" But it's not really a strong enough argument to outweigh an existing scumread. I could see scum using that as a reason to hop off because it's a weak reason to begin with. But I'll think this through more when I analyze him in depth.
Keyser-Soze - holding onto an early game townread. A lot has happened since early game though. I'd like to see you comment on what you think of his recent posts. Have they made you doubt that townread or mostly re-inforced them? It would be really helpful if you can get into some specifics because it's a lot easier for me to read people when they give concrete reasons rather than be really vague.
I feel like you and Nauci are looking for a reason to townread Irrelephant rather than analyze his posts and objectively reach a conclusion.- Keyser Söze
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BV, like me, was willing to present the possibility that TW was town...In post 2764, BlackVoid wrote:I'm reading Momrangal's ISO right now so I'll post comments on interactions as I read them.
On TheWorst, I actually think there are some things that point away from him being scum. Like the last sentence of 1297. It seems like Momra caught a crumb from TheWorst and used that as a reason to divert away from him knowing he has a claim up his sleeve to prevent his mislynch. 794 on Bernie - feels like she's trying to set up Bernie for a TheWorst townflip. 2261 is another post where Momra picks up on TheWorst's soft claim and it feels genuine enough as not a scum-scum interaction.
I think the vote on Nauci in 799 is pretty odd. I don't know what it says about Nauci's alignment but I'm going to read the context.
I also want to point out that Momra reluctantly backed off of her Invisibility push after Shoshin pushed her hard on it suggests that Not_Mafia is town.
I think it’s very town-ish for a player to do a ‘what if?’ U-Turn, when that player in question was your strongest s/read or likeliest player to be lynched
[anti distancing associations]- Keyser Söze
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I actually like the sheer audacity / confidence shown here, which i’d usually lean town.In post 2776, BlackVoid wrote:If me, skitter, Bernie, and Gustavo can all trust each other, the odds of this game being a town win go way up.
This ignorance/derp moment actually feels legit. Surely scum-BV would have been up to date with TW’s scum gambit to fake a guilty on his partner... or at least come prepared to fake some theatre?In post 2776, BlackVoid wrote:3. Can you quote where exactly either Errant or TheWorst said that TheWorst had a result on me? - Keyser Söze
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