NY 213 - Game Over!

[Ankamius]

Golden Robster and Vaxkiller look worse from Wheme+PP wagon interactions

Gamma looks a lot better

[Tchill13]

ok, Robster and vax is something i can work with. I've been FOS'ing them the whole game.

why does gamma look better?

[Ankamius]

It's a pet theory of mine about how scum vs town handle wagons. I don't specifically want to out what exactly it is before I've seen enough samples of it in effect to determine whether it actually means anything or not.

But in this specific case, I think it independently indicates town just by how the wagon was structured over time.

[Tchill13]

VOTE: Penguin Power

wheme gets 3 conf townies on him (after PP's flip) and vax immediately votes PP.

[Tchill13]

Where do you stand on TBG?

[Ankamius]

The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.

[Ankamius]

idk

I originally thought he looked town based on the Wheme/PP wagon dynamics but the constant wagon changes made it null

[Tchill13]

I am cool with being the Lynch, I am nothing special on this side.

I found this from a towngame.

Dude...

You were *in* that towngame. You let me get all tunneled in and then you deflate it with meta you were quasi-aware of.

VOTE: WhemeStar

Good point

VOTE: WhemeStar

not feeling those wagons today.
wheme over penguin, but we may have to go back to PP anyway.

VOTE: whemestar

now Scionness pushes the wheme wagon to 7 votes. I specifically remember him being one of the wagon stallers which is interesting because his vote puts that wagon into lynch territory. hop, PP and Flavor had already voted.

So at 7 votes possible bussers are wave, kublah, JJD and Scioness.

I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.

[Ankamius]

What did their votes look like day 3+4?

[Tchill13]

The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.

the wheme wagon generated pretty quickly compared to the other wagons that were actually pushed through.

wouldn't this at first glance make you think Wheme's wagon was bus heavy?

[Ankamius]

The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.

the wheme wagon generated pretty quickly compared to the other wagons that were actually pushed through.

wouldn't this at first glance make you think Wheme's wagon was bus heavy?

Generally yes, but I don't see this case show up very often, so I'd have to think about it before being certain about it.

Normal vote spread guidelines would suggest at least 1-2 scum on the wagon regardless, but I'm more interested in the where.

[Tchill13]

Penguin Power is really lynchbaity

Especially in larges.

Still voting vanity.

trying to justify scummy behaviour by saying lynchbaity

nice

sticks out like a sore thumb imo.

[TehBrawlGuy]

What did their votes look like day 3+4?

Scioness was the really strong counterwagon to Dunn, though, so if you think it was TvT, then she should be out.

I agree with your assessment that D3 and D4 look like primarily wagons on Town players, btw.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.

Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?

[Tchill13]

The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.

the wheme wagon generated pretty quickly compared to the other wagons that were actually pushed through.

wouldn't this at first glance make you think Wheme's wagon was bus heavy?

Generally yes, but I don't see this case show up very often, so I'd have to think about it before being certain about it.

Normal vote spread guidelines would suggest at least 1-2 scum on the wagon regardless, but I'm more interested in the where.

here's what im thinking. Scum got bus happy mid to late wagon. How they handled the end of it i can't begin to even guess.

[Tchill13]

I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.

Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?

I mean sure but it's possible they're still town after that. I was a huge advocate of both lynches and was wrong both times.

[Tchill13]

Penguin Power is really lynchbaity

Especially in larges.

Still voting vanity.

trying to justify scummy behaviour by saying lynchbaity

nice

Dunn and PP are town.

Rob wants to vote PP for scumminess, which scum is ultra aware of due to the fact they do not want to be scummy. I'm not seeing solid reasoning to vote PP from rob other than scumminess.

[TehBrawlGuy]

I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.

Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?

I mean sure but it's possible they're still town after that. I was a huge advocate of both lynches and was wrong both times.

Why don't you think they bussed?

Do we both agree that both the mislynches were scum-fueled?

[Ankamius]

hm

I had one more theory to look into and it somewhat incriminated this slot

VOTE: Wavemode

[Ankamius]

Btw that's a low confidence scumread, don't blindly sheep

I'm more interested in the townreads I got from it, which I want to test.

Tomorrow.

[Tchill13]

busy irl so can't reply fully, but UNVOTE: wheme[\unvote].

still want lynch, just bad policy to run to l-1 preclaim

nobody would hammer preclaim unless they wanted to be lynched tomorrow

and considering the claim... hmmm....

[Tchill13]

I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.

Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?

I mean sure but it's possible they're still town after that. I was a huge advocate of both lynches and was wrong both times.

Why don't you think they bussed?

Do we both agree that both the mislynches were scum-fueled?

Idk if they were scum fueled or not. they to the game is not the dunn or lalendra lynches.

it's the wheme lynch.

[Ankamius]

At the very least, I think I got enough townreads that I should be able to tell if there's scum within that set, which would invalidate what I think happened D3/D4, but that would likely indicate other things which are testable

idk, we'll see

[TehBrawlGuy]

busy irl so can't reply fully, but UNVOTE: wheme[\unvote].

still want lynch, just bad policy to run to l-1 preclaim

nobody would hammer preclaim unless they wanted to be lynched tomorrow

and considering the claim... hmmm....

are you trying to implicate me or GR with this, I legit can't tell

[Tchill13]

UNVOTE: wheme

This vote's coming back tonight but I'll give you a few hours time.

This is also not town.


If we’re switching wagons after a claim, which no matter what the claim is, this goes.

VOTE: tehbrawlguy

he's lived long enough. Fos'd by a few but i don't believe his wagon has actually ever grown to a modest height.