NY 213 - Game Over!


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Post Post #5150 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:36 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Golden Robster and Vaxkiller look worse from Wheme+PP wagon interactions

Gamma looks a lot better
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Post Post #5151 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:38 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

ok, Robster and vax is something i can work with. I've been FOS'ing them the whole game.

why does gamma look better?
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Post Post #5152 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:39 pm

Post by Ankamius »

It's a pet theory of mine about how scum vs town handle wagons. I don't specifically want to out what exactly it is before I've seen enough samples of it in effect to determine whether it actually means anything or not.

But in this specific case, I think it independently indicates town just by how the wagon was structured over time.
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Post Post #5153 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:40 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3012, Vaxkiller wrote:VOTE: Penguin Power
wheme gets 3 conf townies on him (after PP's flip) and vax immediately votes PP.
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Post Post #5154 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:41 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

Where do you stand on TBG?
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Post Post #5155 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:42 pm

Post by Ankamius »

The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.
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Post Post #5156 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:43 pm

Post by Ankamius »

idk

I originally thought he looked town based on the Wheme/PP wagon dynamics but the constant wagon changes made it null
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Post Post #5157 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:45 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3027, Kublai Khan wrote:
In post 3022, JarJarDrinks wrote:
In post 367, TheRampage wrote:I am cool with being the Lynch, I am nothing special on this side.
I found this from a towngame.
Dude...

You were *in* that towngame. You let me get all tunneled in and then you deflate it with meta you were quasi-aware of.

VOTE: WhemeStar
In post 3030, JarJarDrinks wrote:Good point

VOTE: WhemeStar
In post 3034, Scioness Sajj wrote:not feeling those wagons today.
wheme over penguin, but we may have to go back to PP anyway.

VOTE: whemestar
now Scionness pushes the wheme wagon to 7 votes. I specifically remember him being one of the wagon stallers which is interesting because his vote puts that wagon into lynch territory. hop, PP and Flavor had already voted.

So at 7 votes possible bussers are wave, kublah, JJD and Scioness.

I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.
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Post Post #5158 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:46 pm

Post by Ankamius »

What did their votes look like day 3+4?
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Post Post #5159 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:47 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 5155, Ankamius wrote:The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.
the wheme wagon generated pretty quickly compared to the other wagons that were actually pushed through.

wouldn't this at first glance make you think Wheme's wagon was bus heavy?
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Post Post #5160 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:50 pm

Post by Ankamius »

In post 5159, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 5155, Ankamius wrote:The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.
the wheme wagon generated pretty quickly compared to the other wagons that were actually pushed through.

wouldn't this at first glance make you think Wheme's wagon was bus heavy?
Generally yes, but I don't see this case show up very often, so I'd have to think about it before being certain about it.

Normal vote spread guidelines would suggest at least 1-2 scum on the wagon regardless, but I'm more interested in the where.
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Post Post #5161 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:51 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3080, Golden Robster wrote:
In post 3064, Dunnstral wrote:Penguin Power is really lynchbaity
In post 3065, PenguinPower wrote:Especially in larges.

Still voting vanity.
trying to justify scummy behaviour by saying lynchbaity

nice
sticks out like a sore thumb imo.
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Post Post #5162 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:51 pm

Post by TehBrawlGuy »

In post 5158, Ankamius wrote:What did their votes look like day 3+4?
Scioness was the really strong counterwagon to Dunn, though, so if you think it was TvT, then she should be out.

I agree with your assessment that D3 and D4 look like primarily wagons on Town players, btw.
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Post Post #5163 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:52 pm

Post by TehBrawlGuy »

In post 5157, Tchill13 wrote:
I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.
Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?
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Post Post #5164 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:53 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 5160, Ankamius wrote:
In post 5159, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 5155, Ankamius wrote:The part that's giving me pause now is that I've been analyzing this same general thing the last two days to determine reads on the leading wagon... day three and four held roughly the same pattern and both lynches flipped town; the problem is that the way day two developed according to the VCs would normally indicate a TvT spread on the leading wagons.

Those two are indicative of something but I don't have an answer for it yet.
the wheme wagon generated pretty quickly compared to the other wagons that were actually pushed through.

wouldn't this at first glance make you think Wheme's wagon was bus heavy?
Generally yes, but I don't see this case show up very often, so I'd have to think about it before being certain about it.

Normal vote spread guidelines would suggest at least 1-2 scum on the wagon regardless, but I'm more interested in the where.
here's what im thinking. Scum got bus happy mid to late wagon. How they handled the end of it i can't begin to even guess.
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Post Post #5165 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:54 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 5163, TehBrawlGuy wrote:
In post 5157, Tchill13 wrote:
I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.
Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?
I mean sure but it's possible they're still town after that. I was a huge advocate of both lynches and was wrong both times.
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Post Post #5166 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:56 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3080, Golden Robster wrote:
In post 3064, Dunnstral wrote:Penguin Power is really lynchbaity
In post 3065, PenguinPower wrote:Especially in larges.

Still voting vanity.
trying to justify scummy behaviour by saying lynchbaity

nice
Dunn and PP are town.

Rob wants to vote PP for scumminess, which scum is ultra aware of due to the fact they do not want to be scummy. I'm not seeing solid reasoning to vote PP from rob other than scumminess.
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Post Post #5167 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:57 pm

Post by TehBrawlGuy »

In post 5165, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 5163, TehBrawlGuy wrote:
In post 5157, Tchill13 wrote:
I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.
Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?
I mean sure but it's possible they're still town after that. I was a huge advocate of both lynches and was wrong both times.

Why don't you think they bussed?

Do we both agree that both the mislynches were scum-fueled?
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Post Post #5168 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:58 pm

Post by Ankamius »

hm

I had one more theory to look into and it somewhat incriminated this slot

VOTE: Wavemode
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Post Post #5169 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:59 pm

Post by Ankamius »

Btw that's a low confidence scumread, don't blindly sheep

I'm more interested in the townreads I got from it, which I want to test.

Tomorrow.
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Post Post #5170 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:59 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3125, Golden Robster wrote:
In post 3117, TehBrawlGuy wrote:busy irl so can't reply fully, but UNVOTE: wheme[\unvote].

still want lynch, just bad policy to run to l-1 preclaim
nobody would hammer preclaim unless they wanted to be lynched tomorrow
and considering the claim... hmmm.... :shifty:
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Post Post #5171 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:00 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 5167, TehBrawlGuy wrote:
In post 5165, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 5163, TehBrawlGuy wrote:
In post 5157, Tchill13 wrote:
I don't believe Wave or JJD bussed so the door is open to a Kublah or scioness bus atm.
Why not? Do you not think them being on both the D3 and D4 mislynches reflects poorly on their odds of being Town?
I mean sure but it's possible they're still town after that. I was a huge advocate of both lynches and was wrong both times.

Why don't you think they bussed?

Do we both agree that both the mislynches were scum-fueled?
Idk if they were scum fueled or not. they to the game is not the dunn or lalendra lynches.

it's the wheme lynch.
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Post Post #5172 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:01 pm

Post by Ankamius »

At the very least, I think I got enough townreads that I should be able to tell if there's scum within that set, which would invalidate what I think happened D3/D4, but that would likely indicate other things which are testable

idk, we'll see
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Post Post #5173 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:04 pm

Post by TehBrawlGuy »

In post 5170, Tchill13 wrote:
In post 3125, Golden Robster wrote:
In post 3117, TehBrawlGuy wrote:busy irl so can't reply fully, but UNVOTE: wheme[\unvote].

still want lynch, just bad policy to run to l-1 preclaim
nobody would hammer preclaim unless they wanted to be lynched tomorrow
and considering the claim... hmmm.... :shifty:
are you trying to implicate me or GR with this, I legit can't tell
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Post Post #5174 (ISO) » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:06 pm

Post by Tchill13 »

In post 3199, Flavor Leaf wrote:
In post 3196, TehBrawlGuy wrote:UNVOTE: wheme

This vote's coming back tonight but I'll give you a few hours time.
This is also not town.


If we’re switching wagons after a claim, which no matter what the claim is, this goes.
VOTE: tehbrawlguy

he's lived long enough. Fos'd by a few but i don't believe his wagon has actually ever grown to a modest height.
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