Open 731: Twin Trap (Game Over)

[BuJaber]

But the difference that 1 vote makes is huge.
A hammer is final.
The player dies. The day ends. The night begins. It has serious repercussions. It changes the town:scum ratio. It cannot be missed. It doesn't get ignored.

L-1 while serious, is in the end a vote that can be unvoted, even if it's the vote that puts a wagon right on the edge. In fact, in many cases L-1 triggers scum to unvote from the wagon for whatever reason that is applicable to the game they're in.

But yes inferno should claim

[Almost50]

{BuJaBer, Fromage, Almost50}
{Egg, poseidon}
{GameNBurger}
{Inferno, Manatee}

preliminary reads

Mine is:

{Egg, Eragon}
{BuJaBer}
{Fromage}
{poseidon}
{Inferno, Manatee, GameNBurger}

[Almost50]

But yes

inferno should claim

Just so he sees it when he comes in.

[Inferno390]

Just read up, and I am refusing to claim this early in the day, mostly because I think I was run up as a cover for PR hunting. So I will leave scum in WIFOM on whether I am a PR or not with this post.

#154 is weak. If so was going to self hammer, I would have done it already, and no way my partner comes in to hammer and reveal himself.
Also don’t like 158, this again reads like PR hunting. There is this thing called pressuring to determine alignment, A50.
GameNBurger is still just throwing AoP my way, so I’m officially ignoring anything he says about me for now. He can come back with a real read. Also way too concerned with how his vote looks imo.
Scum is somewhere in {A50, Eragon, GameNBurger}. This is where my lynchpool is until further notice (I.e.: scum reveals itself somewhere else)

[GameNBurger]

Just read up, and I am refusing to claim this early in the day, mostly because I think I was run up as a cover for PR hunting. So I will leave scum in WIFOM on whether I am a PR or not with this post.

#154 is weak. If so was going to self hammer, I would have done it already, and no way my partner comes in to hammer and reveal himself.
Also don’t like 158, this again reads like PR hunting. There is this thing called pressuring to determine alignment, A50.
GameNBurger is still just throwing AoP my way, so I’m officially ignoring anything he says about me for now. He can come back with a real read. Also way too concerned with how his vote looks imo.
Scum is somewhere in {A50, Eragon, GameNBurger}. This is where my lynchpool is until further notice (I.e.: scum reveals itself somewhere else)

This kind of scenario is why I think L-2 holds no actual threat

You can have confidence to stall at L-2

With L-1 and actual intent to hammer shit gets done and we don't have this soft claim bullshit

And yes this is totally soft claim bullshit

If you're gonna not claim fine make that choice but don't throw out that "oh is this WIFOM scum? Am I a PR? AM I?"

Scum has no motivation to make a claim or even sweat at all unless they're at minimum L-1

Atleast thats my experience around here

[GameNBurger]

Mine is:

{Egg, Eragon}
{BuJaBer}
{Fromage}
{poseidon}
{Inferno, Manatee, GameNBurger}

So to explain my thought process I'm just gonna confirm: Fromage is null, poseidon is scum lean, Inferno/Manatee/Game is scum

Since scum is only 2, It's really easy to write up detailed thoughts or arguments on pairings even if you influde your null read on fromage

Theres only 10 pairings:

Inferno/fromage
Inferno/poseidon
Inferno/Manatee
Inferno/Game
Fromage/poseidon
Fromage/manatee
Fromage/Game
Poseidon/manatee
Poseidon/Game
Manatee/Game

Now while I know its a lot to ask you to write your thoughts on all of those pairings, I would appreciate if you did
However I also understand if youd rather play with your notes entirely to the belt, I'd disagree with the strategy but I'd understand that some just play that way
But seeing we have 11 days and we have 3 tied wagons I don't see a reason why to not ask

I think I might do a series of posts detailing all the possible inferno Scum teams, and if we don't have enough to discuss past that then do other possible pairings with all players

[Almost50]

@Burger: I'd say Poseidon is my null read. I;s also rule out you+Inferno as a team.

So, to me it's Inferno+Manatee or GameNBurger+Manatee, but if Manatee flips Town then I'd look at Poseidon before I look at any other.

[Eragon]

Mine is:

{Egg, Eragon}
{BuJaBer}
{Fromage}
{poseidon}
{Inferno, Manatee, GameNBurger}

So to explain my thought process I'm just gonna confirm: Fromage is null, poseidon is scum lean, Inferno/Manatee/Game is scum

Since scum is only 2, It's really easy to write up detailed thoughts or arguments on pairings even if you influde your null read on fromage

Theres only 10 pairings:

Inferno/fromage
Inferno/poseidon
Inferno/Manatee
Inferno/Game
Fromage/poseidon
Fromage/manatee
Fromage/Game
Poseidon/manatee
Poseidon/Game
Manatee/Game

Now while I know its a lot to ask you to write your thoughts on all of those pairings, I would appreciate if you did
However I also understand if youd rather play with your notes entirely to the belt, I'd disagree with the strategy but I'd understand that some just play that way
But seeing we have 11 days and we have 3 tied wagons I don't see a reason why to not ask

I think I might do a series of posts detailing all the possible inferno Scum teams, and if we don't have enough to discuss past that then do other possible pairings with all players

Wait burger = A50?


Why did burger explain A50’s reads?

[GameNBurger]

@Eragon

I don't think I did, I simply explained how i read them to clarify any potential confusion with how i got my list of potential pairings that a50 was suggesting. As it turns out, I did make a wrong reading of his reads, as he corrected me that poseidon was his completely null read.

Back to working on my larger post.

[GameNBurger]

I'm going To go down In list order from the initial post
These are gonna work thru the logic and past actions in the game assuming the pairing as the assumption

Spoiler: Inferno/A50

Inferno/A50

Inferno in Post 42 pushes back after mistakingly thinking a50 was saying he was the BEST wagon, this interaction seems odd to me unless Inferno REALLY hates being bussed and is paranoid about it
Post 45 follows the already budding suggestions that Inferno is PRHunting scum and saying Infernos response in 42 is bad, could be A50 pushing the eject button on Inferno and bussing HARD, then sets Me up as a potential sequential lynch based on my lack of activity
A50 arguing with inferno after this point while inferno fails to grasp how pointing to VT's in particular is PR hunting, This feels too oddly genuine for me to begin to attribute any of this fighting to scum motivation
Everyone continues discussing Inferno, A50 directly responds to Buj with his reasons for his push in Post 92
A50 questions me to put my money where my mouth is, maybe trying to set me up? Either way I responeded he might have still pegged me as scum partners? A50 also excuses himself from interacting with Inferno unless he chooses to
A50 makes it clear he wants to lynch a VT today, which someone points out later that it looks like he's feeding scum strategy on how they should claim (which if you're town a50 thanks for the Delicious WIFOM), this could be A50 trying to signal to inferno how to claim as scum in this game and then excuse himself as a reason to vote out a different person if they claim VT
A50 directly responds to criticisms by futher outlining optimal town play even further in a bizarrely contradictory fashion, not understanding that on the off chance scum doesn't know it, then town would have the upper hand (okay that sentence doesn't read very well but the point is that Almost50 turned the whole thing into a big public WIFOM fest for all sides of the town to enjoy)
A50 does follow this up with a series of explanations that makes the strategy sound pretty sound, although the WIFOM of it all means we still really can't act on that sequence of events happening
A50 dissapears for a while and then comes back to supply a scum game and then defend the usefullness of L-1, but also takes the direct question from Eragon to vote me and take some pressure off the wagon
He also emphasizes Inferno should claim

Thoughts:

While I could see a picture that A50 is simply hard bussing, a lot of it would depend on setting me up as a target and I don't think A50 is actually doing that. It seems A50 is playing with a lot of his thoughts close to the belt, so perhaps I need to do a meta dive to see if this is usually the case. I'm not really sure this pairing would make 100% sense unless A50 is the most enthusiastic busser yet. I also don't feel like Inferno's reaction would make sense for this to be a scum pairing either.

Spoiler: Inferno/Fromage

Inferno/Fromage:

Fromage lays in the background and remains inactive until 82 and doesn't really touch Inferno directly at first, but begins to ask him a question and praise an early criticism of Inferno.
Fromage continues to ask questions of other players as well as calls out A50's earlier post as feeding scum strategy.
He asks If i'm fine with Inferno dying. After Inferno's response, I reply yes.
He also asks if I changed my mind on being uncomfortable with fast Day 1 Lynches, I don't answer this question due to phoneposting. If you're curious, when I mentioned being uncomfortable it was before I was locked in to the idea that Inferno is scum. Inferno responed terribly, and I got a lot more comfortable with lynching Inferno whenever.
Fromage clarifies his defense with Eragon, then outlines a case for me being scum due to inconsistency.
Fromage says hes busy and promises to read more into Inferno on Tuesday, asks Eragon to contribute his thoughts on my L-1 vote on inferno, also argues against his L-2 favorability.

Thoughts:

Fromage hasn't touched on a lot of players in the game, he's only sort of interacted with Inferno and argued a little bit with Eragon. He asks direct questions but I'm not sure of his whole thoughts if he has them together yet. I could see this all being scum behavior that makes sense when inferno is so publicly flailing but I also don't see why he wouldn't have simply backed the manatee wagon as a response. Setting my wagon up just seems way to town for me to really buy into Fromage being scum

Spoiler: Inferno/Eragon

Inferno/Eragon

Eragon writes semi wall posts both bussing his partner while also earning towncred and drawing suspiscion by questioning other posters
Eragon responds to some small criticisms and then continues to analyze anything he can, and must be the best at impersonating town
Eragon does ask for votes to remain on L-2, perhaps as a cover to buy inferno some time
Okay theres really not much to say here

Thoughts:

So Eragon is probably my strongest townread and I really don't see this pair happening, and I dont really see him as a user that could relentlessly bus with a smile, I seriously had a hard time picturing his actions motivated by scum at all

Spoiler: Inferno/Egg

Inferno/Egg

Egg Takes a super early opportunity to bus inferno at the literal first possible moment
Also questions inferno's commitment to vote, could be a trap set, as when inferno changes his vote he votes manatee for flip flopping
Egg townreads Buj, but keeps his reasons close to the belt at first but explains it, saying He liked that Buj called out inferno's crappy townread on Buj, this could be to try and position himself as town rather if Inferno flips scum?
Egg gets busy

Thoughts:

Egg should post more, I know he'll be back Sunday to catch up. He's really in the null/town lean for me for now but i want to see more thoughts on the recent stuff

Spoiler: Inferno/Manatee

Inferno/Manatee

Soft pushes Inferno then flips to hard pushing when egg calls him out on it. He later townreads eragon and scumreads Inferno
He asks for inferno meta
That is literally all that has happened.

Thoughts:

This is hardcore lurking or extreme activity. Its getting to the point where town or scum I'd much rather he'd replace out. I know this is supposed to be about the persepctive scum partners but its getting ridiculous. If he is scum, his behavior makes complete sense but ultimately his behavior is such a nuisance. Ugh. To reiterate:

Manatee PLEASE consider subbing out. There's no shame in being busy, and if you're lurking this hard I have hard time seeing how this is strategy

Spoiler: Inferno/Poseidon

Inferno/Poseidon

No you know what, You're worse than Manatee. Get back in the game and do a proper catchup or sub out PLEASE.

Poseidon needs to catch up or sub out. This is just inactivity and its really annoying.

Spoiler: Inferno/Buj

Inferno/Buj

Buj calls out inferno on his bad read as a bus attempt
Buj runs up the Manatee wagon to try and give his scum buddy a chance without fully unbussing Inferno, Puts Manatee at L-2
Swivels to Inferno to being lynchbait to dismiss the wagon
Buj really starts participating in the game and asking direct questions while sprinkiling in some reads here and there, also supports an Inferno claim, but leaves inferno's name out of the reads in 171

Thoughts:

I could see this pairing happening. He feels like he's silently keeping an associative distance from inferno, which feels weird. While I also shared the Manatee suspicion earlier in the game, at this point Manatee is merely a few more posts worse than Poseidon. To me, the more time passes on, Mantee's participation has not stayed proportional and reads more like someone who isn't even playing the game. While yes Manatee has done a very scummy thing, its arguably the ONLY thing he's done the whole game. That doesn't make him unscummy, but my gut is telling me he just needs to be replaced.

Man that took longer than expected

This post made me realize we're dealing with two extraordinarly absent players (egg cuts it close but has a promised date of return and catch up we can hold him to) which makes trying to find second scum REALLY more difficult

I'll be busy for a while but shoot any questions if you have any

As a reminder all the dropdowns are fabricating a perspective assuming the pairing is true, not an argument or accusation of whats occured; this is more like a list of notes

Alright peace i'll back later

[Eragon]

But the difference that 1 vote makes is huge.
A hammer is final.
The player dies. The day ends. The night begins. It has serious repercussions. It changes the town:scum ratio. It cannot be missed. It doesn't get ignored.

L-1 while serious, is in the end a vote that can be unvoted, even if it's the vote that puts a wagon right on the edge. In fact, in many cases L-1 triggers scum to unvote from the wagon for whatever reason that is applicable to the game they're in.

But yes inferno should claim

and yes I understand that, but its just a habit ingrained from homesite. It may stem from the fact we have 15-21p on average, and shorter days(only about 4-5 RL days) that makes it a bigger difference to stop someone from accidentally hammering because they aren't sure how many people are on wagon and stuff like that.

[Eragon]

Just read up, and I am refusing to claim this early in the day, mostly because I think I was run up as a cover for PR hunting. So I will leave scum in WIFOM on whether I am a PR or not with this post.

#154 is weak. If so was going to self hammer, I would have done it already, and no way my partner comes in to hammer and reveal himself.
Also don’t like 158, this again reads like PR hunting. There is this thing called pressuring to determine alignment, A50.
GameNBurger is still just throwing AoP my way, so I’m officially ignoring anything he says about me for now. He can come back with a real read. Also way too concerned with how his vote looks imo.
Scum is somewhere in {A50, Eragon, GameNBurger}. This is where my lynchpool is until further notice (I.e.: scum reveals itself somewhere else)

LOL.

you think you were run-up because of PR hunting???

Not so, if there was no other choice, you would self-hammer to stop people from getting the hammer-cred and denying discussion.
but as ive said, we have 11 days left, and that is time enough that someone might be able to get the wagon off.
Plus a D1 scum Lynch hurts scum immensely, making it 6 v 1 D2 and likely 2 TPR's.
He thinks he knows your alignment based upon the pressure, but he wants a claim.
How is your lynchpool only people that have pressured you?

[Eragon]

@Eragon

I don't think I did, I simply explained how i read them to clarify any potential confusion with how i got my list of potential pairings that a50 was suggesting. As it turns out, I did make a wrong reading of his reads, as he corrected me that poseidon was his completely null read.

Back to working on my larger post.

oh lol.

I thought You alt-slipped or smth because it looked like you were explaining something that A50 wrote as GameNBurger, but I probably just mis-interpreted it.

clarification please, do you mind meld fully with A50 here and are treating those reads as your own?

[GameNBurger]

{Eragon, Me}
{Buj, A50}
{fromagw, egg}
{Inferno}

That’s town, town lean, null, scum

AND POSEIDON AND MANATEE NEED TO JOIN IN SUDDENLY AND CATCH UP OR REPLACE OUT
they’re screwing up my reads, I feel like I’m playing Yahtzee with a deck of 47 cards

[Inferno390]

These last few GameNBurger posts have me even more sus of him (if that’s even possible). The fact that his entire pairing list is pairing me with other players is bad for a few reasons: 1) By looking at everything as “Inferno’s scum, who’s his partner,” it allows him to look like he’s hunting for scum when in reality he’s just calling me scum and seeing who else he can pin me with. 2) By trying to pair me with every other player in the game, it’s obvious that he’s keeping his options open. 3) Lockscumming me means that he's just calling anything that anyone else is doing in interaction with me scummy to see what sticks. He’s not actually analyzing anyone on their own merit to see if they are scum or not. Also, where did that soft scumread on BuJ come from? It feels less me it was pulled out of a hat.

@Eragon: First off, the fact that you would even suggest that I would self hammer D1 not even a week into the game as Town is disgusting. I would NEVER self hammer as town, it’s super anti-wincon.
The fact that I’m not already dead should be hugely Town indicative by your logic, because you left me at L-1 for way too long, and I had plenty of opportunity to self hammer.
Second, au contraire, my friend, the people who are pressuring me are the ones who happen to be my lynchpool. That was a pretty blatant straw man if I do say so myself.

[Eragon]

First, I know you wouldn’t self hammer as town.
The question is, would you as scum?
I think the answer to that is no, because you can’t be 100% positive your being lynched, so you would rather defend yourself and get off the block, as you’ve been doing instead of scumhuntimg.
You entirely mis-read my post of you thought I was saying your town.

Second, people who pressure you are in your lynchpool.
People in your lynchpool are pressuring you?
I don’t think it works that way, especially as the were pressuring you before you got the reads.
Plus you never have explanations until this last post on your burger read, but where did mine come from?
You had my at town earlier, so what happened in between? I pushed you and manatee

[ManateeDude]

I'm gonna replace out guys. Sorry

[LastManStanding]

ManateeDude is being replaced.

[LastManStanding]

Votecount 1.5

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Inferno390

(3): ManateeDude, Poseidon, GameNBurger

ManateeDude

(3): Eragon, Egg, BuJaber

GameNBurger

(3): Inferno390, Fromage, Almost50

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-08-14 08:00:00)

[Egg]

V/LA until Sunday night

[GameNBurger]

I'm gonna replace out guys. Sorry

No problem, hope all is going well

[Poseidon]

Can’t quote easy with phone, but I would think for Inferno, a claim would be beneficial to lessen the L-2, otherwise you just read as even more scum. Which is why I stand by my vote doubly.

May I ask why I’m a scum read? Or did I miss a point.

[BuJaber]

I'd actually be very impressed if burger flips scum after all that.

Though I don't understand his approach and I think a lot of what he's doing is based on circumstantial evidence and could all be a waste of time.

There's no harm in thinking about possible associations a little to help you sort people, but making a whole entire list based on someome being scum that hasn't flipped yet seems like an exercise in futility.

Just highly unlikely that this comes from scum tbh.

[GameNBurger]

I'd actually be very impressed if burger flips scum after all that.

Though I don't understand his approach and I think a lot of what he's doing is based on circumstantial evidence and could all be a waste of time.

There's no harm in thinking about possible associations a little to help you sort people, but making a whole entire list based on someome being scum that hasn't flipped yet seems like an exercise in futility.

Just highly unlikely that this comes from scum tbh.

It’s more that I like to play with my thoughts entirely on the table and studied game theory in college so I’ve been trained at breaking problems into a list of all possible outcomes to start

As I made an offhand mention before I made the list I plan on doing this for all players combos possible, I simply started with inferno since I’m really convinced he’s scum and it’s just most efficient to start with him first. Give the game will probably not be in full swing until Sunday again (unlesss manatee is replaced super fast) I should have the time to organize it all,

As for why? Scum game can sometimes be made easy by sitting back and letting the town pigeonhole themselves and get stuck in a corner, the idea is that scum want to be left in the shadows of sweetness, where the town is calling other town on bad and start voting eachother while scum just try to not be stupid. This isn’t always how it goes but it can be very dangerous to not have a handle on everything that’s going on.

Since there’s 2 scum and 7 town it’s not too Herculean of a task to list off all the possible combinations and build cases for each one, while it isn’t actively making an argument for one shorthand goal (who to vote out today) I think it has its merits for organizing what may be (Atleast for me) an insurmountable amount of info into an accessible and comprehensive list. While initially tedious, tomorrow there will be two less players (and most likely one less scum) which will make the process far shorter on my end.

I will admit it’s rare that I can do this sort of process in a timely manner in day 1, as the small size of the overall player count and scum team is what makes this all manageable, but i figure since it’s all past info and speculation there’s no harm to town or benefit to scum from having open notes like that

[BuJaber]

Fine
But the point is when someone flips town you know they definitely don't have any partners. When someone flips scum you know that you only need to study pairings that include them.

Doing this before any flips is just an insane amount of extra work that will likely cause you to read subtext that doesn't exist or something and then in the end once we get a flip or two most of the listings would become irrelevant.

What I usually do is if I see a post that someone makes about someone or a conversation between two people or some weird case on someone I talk about specific reasons why that action probably means that x and y are not partners or that x is scum if y flips scum or similar specifix pairings based on a specific set of actions.

Like take this game for example. Inferno and A50. Very very very unlikely that they are scum partners. So if one flips scum the other is cleared more or less. Any associative that you may perceive that isn't very strong that you are not sure about if it means they are partners or not isn't worth thinking about imo. Just focus on ones that are really obvious.

The other issue is that a lot of the time an associative read might indicate a one-way relationship but not necessarily the inverse. Meaning say you read a post by player x and you think "okay player x is scum if player y flips town" you might have solid reasoning to believe that but just because this might be true would not mean that "if player y flips scum player x is town". So the associative read only gives you info for one scenario but not another. So it might be unhelpful to mention it until player y actually flips. Because if y doeant die or if x dies first you will have nothing.

I hope that makes sense