Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)

[Keyser Söze]

Well BV said Errant = town here, so will be interesting to see him lynch Skitter ...

Posts relating to the neighborizing/guilty outing.

2655 - I like the "maybe you'll find out" part. It seemed genuine - like something TheWorst would actually say in a neighborhood PT given his coy behavior in thread. And it's a tangential detail that I don't think Errant would make up?
2658 - Can you actually point to evidence that you're friends? You only played a couple of games together.
2742 - I think this is a townie response to Rask's accusation. I think mafia would refute it more seriously if Rask was actually on point as opposed to laughing about what an absurd theory it was.
2754 - I think this is a towntell because scum would want to be more abrasive towards their partners in a distancing effort. I think this actually fits errant's non-confrontational personality more. His response here is consistent with how he continued apologizing to me after a misunderstanding.
2926 - This is the strongest towntell that I referred to earlier. Rask gave both of them an out by asking Errant if he was claiming TheWorst's result for him. Errant immediately confirms that it's not and revotes TheWorst. The "panic" that he was referring to earlier also feels genuine. That it all happened in a minute is another reason.
2983 - This is not a huge towntell since TheWorst was doomed anyways but he didn't need to dissuade Nauci and Rask from their theories about how I'd be a better lynch than TheWorst. He could have voted TheWorst for the cred and let them lead themselves wherever they will. I had liked this post when he made it too.
3048 - I also kinda like this post. I think he'd want to score the more difficult lynch in me before I have a chance to convince everyone I'm town. NM will always be an easy lynch no matter what.

So, overall I feel pretty good. This rejuvenated my townread on errantp. I did have some misgivings about how stubborn Gustavo was being but it's a personality trait that he can replicate as scum and Stungun's associatives really, really fit with what I think he'd do as scum and his philosophy and obsession with distancing match his play here and make more sense than the worldview that he's town with the reads he had.

I'll give a quick look at Stungun's other scumgame to double check before I vote but I'm feeling much more comfortable a Gustavo lynch will end it.

But Errant will have to go for BV:

4. ConclusionISOing almost ended up leaving me with more uncertainty than before but ultimately my feelings aren't really changed. I'd think Gustavo is the last scum, BV is a big pile of unknowns but a lot of things just really clearly point to him being town in spite of everything, skitter is town or my worldview in general just breaks down.I got a lot less from scum associations than I thought I would which is a little disappointing.Anyway, that's all I got. I'll just sheep Irre/Keyser, keep talking to anyone who wants to and about anything, and wish yall the best of luck. This post is directed to Irre, who asked me to express more detailed thoughts on Gustavo and BV. You're welcome. don't say i didn't do anything for you LMAO

[Gustavo]

Well BV said Errant = town here, so will be interesting to see him lynch Skitter ...

he also had me as a town read but he managed to lynch me all the while misrepping me so I really don't know who the last scum is.

[Keyser Söze]

Skitter would lynch BV over Errant...

I don't know if I can convince you to re-assess Errant when I myself am so unsure and there's a fair bit of evidence against Gustavo/Stungun. I think the best option is to flip Gustavo. If we're right, awesome. If we're wrong, then I at least know for sure that Errant is scum. I can buy that you townread Errant harder than me if he's actually town. But I don't think you'll lynch a town-me over a scum-Errant. If he's scum, there's definitely going to be something I can point out that'll explain why he's scum to get you to re-evaluate. @skitter.

on some sort of gut, fundemental level i'm townreading him. like i can't really make the game make sense right now if he's scum. idk i just don't see it. i don't want to lynch him today. like i agree that the reaction to the neighbhorhood thing is the towniest part of his iso but like ... i don't really scumread the rest of it; at best i consider it nai. like he hasn't done anything scummy and parts of his iso are like bleeding town in the context of scum!tw and the guilty and all that jazz

and gustavo's being super town right now; i don't know if the last scum gets that pissed and just votes themselves, twice now. or like keeps the vote on him.

amongst the three of you he was prob set up the best to coast after a tw scumflip and his trajectories on flipped scum are kinda gross but like i'm townreading him today.

and i think you're kinda out of your scumrange and you just feel super nuanced in a way that i think you probably have trouble faking, especially over a sustained period of time. that and the tw-guilty thing doesn't feel like something you were involved in planning - like we tend to approach the game kinda similarly and like that's never how i fake a guilty with my partner because my goal would be to coast after and it feels too messy for that.

at the same time i'm very aware that your path-to-victory if scum is basically through pocketing me so i can't just call you a townread and call it a day because like if you *are* scum here that's how you win

(and i don't even know if like appealing to me here is AI here because if you're town that's basically what you need to do too)

i guess i'm somewhere like gustavo > you > ep but i don't feel confident in it

[Keyser Söze]

Should have got someone to replace N_M, that was a wasted lynch.

[Gustavo]

Should have got someone to replace N_M, that was a wasted lynch.

he wasn't going to replace out though. Yes it was a wasted lynch but it was necessary. He never does anything to help town and he didn't do that here.

[Irrelephant11]

Keyser good luck tonight
Here's hoping errant is the nightkill

[Irrelephant11]

Sorry, *cough*, I meant to say BOY IF SCUM KILLS ERRANT I WILL HAVE NO CLUE WHO IT IS

[Keyser Söze]

I think a lot of players are stuck in their reads, so it'll be an interesting one for scum.
Good luck too

[skitter30]

/le sigh

not looking forward to tomorrow then

[Irrelephant11]

anyone secretly a useful pr who held out longer than nauci?
that would be my favorite twist

[Keyser Söze]

/le sigh

not looking forward to tomorrow then

Claim your win now skitter

[Keyser Söze]

anyone secretly a useful pr who held out longer than nauci?
that would be my favorite twist

Gustavo was town.

[Irrelephant11]

Honestly if skitter were to hardclaim mafia rn I'd just give her the win

pedit:
I'm still hoping for a twist I enjoyyy

[Irrelephant11]

...dangit skitter you're too good for that as scum huh

[skitter30]

i wish i could pull something like that off lol

[Errantparabola]

You didn’t answer why you voted somebody you town read and thought was a Pr right after 2 townies did.

shrug

You weren't town reading TW by the end of D1... but still neighborized him.

like i said many many times before, I have neither a justification nor response to this

out of bv and errant, I feel like errant is being less helpful, he seems to be dancing around questions. I believe I did ask for these crumbs he saw by the worst and I don't remember him pointing them out.

Gustavo: "what crumbs did you see from the worst"
EP: *answers the question*
Gustavo: "i dont think EP asnwered the question. what crumbs did you see from the worst?"
EP: *answers the question*
Gustavo: "i still dont remember if EP answered the question. what crumbs did you see from the worst?"

is this like talking to an NPC?

Keyser good luck tonight
Here's hoping errant is the nightkill

anyone secretly a useful pr who held out longer than nauci?
that would be my favorite twist

i can fulfill both of these conditions in one fell swoop

TWILIGHT-VIG: MYSELF

[Errantparabola]

please tell me gustavos just trolling us

[Irrelephant11]

don't give me so much hope
it's cruel

[Gustavo]

EP: *answers the question*

I don't remember seeing them...

if you did answer them, cool it doesn't matter for me anymore i'm dead

[Gustavo]

please tell me gustavos just trolling us

no i'm not.

[Gustavo]

Damn. Flipping bv here would have been so much better.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, it's not skitter so it's definitely Errant. I was fearing that this might happen for a while but the Gustavo lynch was definitely a mix of "can't have him in LYLO" and him looking scummy as opposed to me being absolutely 100% sure he was scum. I didn't feel like I could plausibly get Errant lynched today even if I re-read and concluded he was scummier. So this was the only practical outcome here. Skitter and to some extent Irrelephant were really conf-biased in their read there.

town would have had a better chance of winning if they lynched bv today imo.

You tunneling me was at least part of the reason I just wanted you flipped today. If you had worked with me and considered Errant, I'd have been more inclined to try to change everyone's mind. There's no scenario in which me getting mislynched is a good outcome for town. It would certainly have been frustrating to watch you and Errant go at each other from the dead thread while everybody conf-biased their townreads on Errant and lynched you and town losing.

[BlackVoid]

I'll be looking most closely at BV, tomorrow, actually

Think I gave up on him too easily when he AtE'd my paranoia

I didn't appeal to emotion. I appealed to logic.

Which scenario is more likely: TheWorst guiltying a partner or TheWorst neighborizing/fake-neighborizing a partner and trying to mislynch a townie before he goes down?

Keep in mind that in the former scenario, he was almost guaranteed to lose because he didn't know what other PRs were in the game, he didn't know if he could explain his continued survival. He wasn't particularly townread either.

[BlackVoid]

As a pre-amble to what's coming tomorrow, I'm going to suggest that skitter and whichever conf-town is alive tomorrow try and logically consider my arguments as opposed to vote based on paranoia. The most evidence suggests I'm town. The setup suggests I'm town. I'm obviously a better debater than Errant. Don't discount my arguments and give him the win because he ATE'd or got mad or whatever else scum keep doing. His play today has been the definition of how scum would approach this situation. He laid low. He never pushed any lynch. He pretty much stayed in the background. It's the kind of feeling scum sometimes do when they are townread and don't want to upset the status quo by impacting the game too much.

[Gustavo]

You tunneling me was at least part of the reason I just wanted you flipped today. If you had worked with me and considered Errant, I'd have been more inclined to try to change everyone's mind.

God this misrep. I didn’t tunnel anyone. I voted who I thought fit as scum and the moment I voted you, you immediately took errant out of the equation.