SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE

[the worst]

meeeow

[the worst]

kinda happy my gut pings on FireAss were about right but I feel kinda stupid for digging in my heels so hard wrt CShep. :/ also not really sure what to do about night action resolutions.

[Krazy]

Maybe just say them?

[Krazy]

So Shoshin, I spent the entire day bussing instead of hammering you? After I had spent the previous day not on the bus and having no stated intention of getting on it?

Maybe you should work on a theory that doesn't involve me throwing the game as scum.

Why is Guac and Esp town?

[Shoshin]

I wasn't ever at risk of a hammer...

[Shoshin]

Who do you think is scum, Krazy?

[Punreader]

I am most suspicious of the worst, Shoshin, and DeasVail. (Outside chance of Espeonage, but this is doubtful.)

So upon fact checking, my suspicion on Espeonage and to some extent DeasVail is not as warranted as I believed.

The origin of what the problem was:

6. Commander Shepard

(MAFIA)

Average:

5.67

Number of 10s:

3

Number of 0s:

2

5. Nahdia:
3 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2+1 6s
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
2 0s

30 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 3 = 102
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 = 18
102 / 18 = 5.67

Commander Shepherd had the

exact

score, down to the decimal point, he should have had.
But by my calculation, he should have been ranked one position higher.

I assumed pun foul play at work, with a player in {Dunnstral, DeasVail, Espeonage, Shoshin} being ranked higher.
As I knew Dunnstral to be town, I eliminated him.
I still feel as if Fire Assassin botching a guilty claim on a punbuddy is unlikely, thus why I stated "outside chance of Espeonage".
So that left DeasVail or Shoshin as candidates for having an artificially-inflated score above what it should have been.

Except...

5. Dunnstral

(TOWN)

Average:

5.78

Number of 10s:

3

Number of 0s:

0

Dunnstral was town as predicted, yet

was

the anomaly; I erroneously believed that the anomaly must originate from pun, but now we know it did not.

I want to recalculate Shoshin's score (Shoshin, due to role, should be immune to NicoRobin's extra 0, and thus, be ranked with a score higher) and then give an updated version of 1985 with the new flips.

[Shoshin]

Posting to show that I'm online and not quickhammering Shoshin.

Like, why even make this post if you're town?

[Punreader]

Spoiler: Predicted Rankings

1. Chara/Krazy:
9 10s
1 9
1+1 8s
3 6s
1 5
1 3
1 0

90 + 9 + 16 + 18 + 5 + 3 = 141
9 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 18
141 / 18 = 7.83

2. the worst:
1 10
3 9s
1 8
5 7s
2+1 6s
3 5s
1 2

10 + 27 + 8 + 40 + 18 + 15 + 2 = 120
1 + 3 + 1 + 5 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 17
120 / 17 = 7.06

3. Taly:
7 10s
2 9s
1 8
1 5
1 4
1+1 3s
1 2
1 1
2 0s

70 + 18 + 8 + 5 + 4 + 6 + 2 + 1 = 114
7 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 18
114 / 18 = 6.33

4. TehBrawlGuy:
4 10s
3 9s
2 8s
1 6
1 5
1 4
1 3
2+1 2s
2 0s

40 + 27 + 16 + 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 6 = 107
4 + 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 2 = 18
107 / 18 = 5.94 (5.944)

5. Nahdia/Commander Shepherd:
3 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2+1 6s
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
2 0s

30 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 3 = 102
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 = 18
102 / 18 = 5.67

6. Dunnstral:
3 10s
2 9s
1+1 7s
2 6s
2 5s
1.5 4s
4 2s

30 + 18 + 14 + 12 + 10 + 6 + 8 = 98
3 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 1.5 + 4 = 17.5
98 / 17.5 = 5.60

7. Shoshin:
1 10
3 8s
2 7s
3 6s
3 4s
1 3
2 3s
1+1-1 0s

10 + 24 + 14 + 18 + 12 + 3 + 6 = 87
1 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 2 + 2 -1 = 16
87 / 16 = 5.375

8. DeasVail:
1 10
1 8
5 6s
5 5s
3+1 4s
1 0

10 + 8 + 30 + 25 + 16 = 89
1 + 1 + 5 + 5 + 4 + 1 = 17
89 / 17 = 5.24 (5.244)

9. Espeonage:
3+1 10s
1 9
1 8
1 7
2 6s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
4 0s

40 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 12 + 8 + 3 + 2 = 89
4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 4 = 17
89 / 17 = 5.24 (5.235)

10. MariaR:
2 10s
1 9
2 8s
4 6s
1 5
1+1 4s
1 3
1 1
3 0s

20 + 9 + 16 + 24 + 5 + 8 + 3 + 1 = 86
2 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
86 / 17 = 5.06

11. Pine:
4+1 10s
1 5
5.5 4s
2 2s
1 1
3 0s

50 + 5 + 22 + 4 + 1 = 82
5 + 1 + 5.5 + 2 + 1 + 3 = 17.5
82 / 17.5 = 4.69 (4.685)

12. Punreader:
6 10s
1 8
2 7s
2 5s
2 4s
1 3
3+1 * 2 0s (8 0s)
60 + 8 + 14 + 10 + 8 + 3 = 103
6 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 8 = 22
103 / 22 = 4.68

13. Screenplay/ManWithNoName/guacamole:
1 10
3 7s
4 6s
2+1 5s
1 3
1 2
1 1
3 0s

10 + 21 + 24 + 15 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 76
1 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 3 = 17
76 / 17 = 4.47

14. Fire Assassin:
2 10s
2 9s
1 8
3 5s
3 4s
1 3
1 2
2 1s
2+1 0s

20 + 18 + 8 + 15 + 12 + 3 + 2 + 2 = 80
2 + 2 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 18
80 / 18 = 4.44

15. Vaxkiller:
2 10s
3 6s
2+1 5s
3 4s
1 1
5 0s

20 + 18 + 15 + 12 + 1 = 66
2 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 1 + 5 = 17
66 / 17 = 3.88

16. PenguinPower:
1 10
1+1 9s
2 8s
1 7
1 6
1 5
.5 4s
1 2
1 1
7 0s

10 + 18 + 16 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 67
1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 + .5 + 1 + 1 + 7 = 17.5
67 / 17.5 = 3.83

17. NicoRobin:
1+1 10s
2 4s
1 3
1 2
3 1s
8 0s

20 + 8 + 3 + 2 + 3 = 36
2 + 2 + 1 + 1 + 3 + 8 = 17
36 / 17 = 2.12

18. Lovebird:
3 5s
3 3s
1 2
5+1 1s
4 0s

15 + 9 + 2 + 6 = 32
3 + 3 + 1 + 6 + 4 = 17
32 / 17 = 1.88

PREDICTED DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
1.88
0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
2.12
1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
3.83 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
1 10; 7 0s

14. Fire Assassin
4.44 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
2 10s; 2+1 0s (...I don't know where the extra comes from?)

11. Pine (DISCREPENCY DUE TO ME BEING RANKED HIGHER)
4.69 (4.685)
4+1 10s; 3 0s

10. MariaR
5.06
2 10s; 3 0s

6. Dunnstral
5.60
3 10s; 0 0s

5. Nahdia/Commander Shepherd
5.67 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
3 10s; 2 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
5.94 (5.944) (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
6.33 (EXACTLY ACCURATE)
7 10s; 2 0s

ACTUAL DATA RESULTS:
18. Lovebird
1.78

(-.10 difference between prediction)

0 10s; 4 0s

17. NicoRobin
2.06

(-.06 difference between prediction)

1+1 10s; 8 0s

16. PenguinPower
3.83
1 10; 7 0s

14. Fire Assassin
4.44
2 10s; 3 0s

12. Pine
4.67

(-.015 difference between prediction)

4+1 10s; 3 0s

9. MariaR

(+1 position)

5.11

(+.05 difference between prediction)

2 10s; 3 0s

6. Nahdia/Commander Shepherd

(-1 position)

5.67
3 10s; 2 0s

5. Dunnstral

(+1 position)

5.78

(+.18 difference between prediction)

3 10s; 0 0s

4. TehBrawlGuy
5.94
4 10s; 2 0s

3. Taly
6.33
7 10s; 2 0s

What I can make of this: one of Shoshin/DeasVail/Espeonage is ranked lower than they should be by the prediction. MariaR has a (slightly) higher score than she should, but 5.11 should still net her rank 10; the only way for her to get rank 9 is if one of those three is rank 10 in her place.

Dunnstral's ranked higher than he should be (I would say his ranking is the only ranking higher than statistical significance), but I have a suspicion this also ties into why my shot on Pine worked when it shouldn't have; I have a theory that Dunnstral and I, sharing the neighborhood with Commander Shepherd, had our ratings artificially boosted (but not by much) by the pun, thus why I am most likely rank 11, and Dunnstral is rank 5.

It is also possible Pine's rankings play a part in this, and it is also possible my role modification applications are not identical to the ones the mod is using.
Specifically I am referring to how NicoRobin's role would interact with mine and Shoshin's; my score and Shoshin's score are directly impacted on how our modifiers interact with her modifier.

Of course, pragmatically I don't think much use can be gotten out of this now that I look at it. Not quite a waste of time, but an unproductive venture to pursue further, unless someone else can decipher a nugget I'm overlooking.

[Shoshin]

I just don't see much point in what you're doing, Pun.

[the worst]

oh fuck i just realised something super super useful

[Shoshin]

the worst, what's your claim?

[Shoshin]

I think it's time for a mass claim. I really don't see any reason to hold back anymore.

[the worst]

massclaim tomorrow y/y

[Shoshin]

No, today. We already delayed too long.

[the worst]

just a friendly reminder I was the one advocating massclaim yesterday. and I'm telling you that massclaim is currently suboptimal.

[Krazy]

Posting to show that I'm online and not quickhammering Shoshin.

Like, why even make this post if you're town?

Why wouldn't I? I was a slot that could double vote in what was probably lylo. To make it abundantly clear that I was damn near role-confirmed obvtown so I wouldn't have to deal with bullshit like this today. Of everyone, you are the one I do not get thinking I'm scum, since this game would literally already be over if I was and you are not. That this game is even still going when I had a double vote in probable-lylo is pretty strong fucking evidence that I'm not scum.

[Shoshin]

oh fuck i just realised something super super useful

Tell us.

[Shoshin]

Yesterday wasn't lylo, wtf. And I wasn't ever at L-2.

[Punreader]

Fire Assassin - 10
Nahdia/Commander Shepherd - 10
Chara/Krazy - 10
MariaR - 9
TehBrawlGuy - 8

the worst - 7

Shoshin - 6

Srceenplay/ManWithNoName/guacamole - 6
DeasVail - 5
Dunnstral - 4
Pine - 4
PenguinPower - 4
Punreader - 3
Taly - 2
Lovebird - 1
Espeonage - 0
Vaxkiller - 0
NicoRobin - 0

Quite possibly another source of the discrepancy is Fire Assassin right here; one of those 4s is actually a 5, and Dunnstral being the 5 would boost his score.

As far as data goes, the only unflipped name in the bottom half of his readslist (aside from me and Vaxkiller who is MariaR cop cleared) is Espeonage. I maintain "unlikely to be punbuddies" as the best answer; it remains possible, but would not be my first assumption. Or second, or third. We thus have this section to analyze, as almost all are alive:

Fire Assassin

- 10

Nahdia/Commander Shepherd

- 10
Chara/Krazy - 10

MariaR

- 9

TehBrawlGuy

- 8
the worst - 7
Shoshin - 6
Srceenplay/ManWithNoName/guacamole - 6

DeasVail - 5

I do not believe Fire Assassin would so blatantly rate both his teammates as ten. (Aside from my townread on Chara not having faded.)

From this, you'd then have a pool of {the worst, Shoshin, guacamole, DeasVail}.

My assumption would be, one punbuddy very high (Nahdia/Commander Shepherd), one reasonably high ({the worst, Shoshin, guacamole}), and the final punbuddy more middle ({Shoshin, guacamole, DeasVail}).

I still maintain my townread on guacamole, especially given as how were he pun I'd expect a vastly different gamestate than what we currently possess.

Nahdia/Commander Shepherd

- 10
Chara/Krazy - 10
Punreader - 10

Fire Assassin

- 9
PenguinPower - 8

the worst - 7

Espeonage - 6

Shoshin - 6

Taly - 5

DeasVail - 5

TehBrawlGuy - 4
Pine - 4
MariaR - 3
Dunnstral - 2
Lovebird - 1
Srceenplay - 0
Vaxkiller - 0
NicoRobin - 0

Worth mentioning is that Nahdia used the same formatting as Fire Assasin:
Name - rank

May be worth seeing if two other players used that format; if exactly two other players did, there is a chance however remote that the punteam made a punslip of sorts by the wording of their rankings. (I noted this as a possibility before, but needed at least one pun flip before beginning my search.) I know at least one other did.

However, from a data standpoint, these rankings look awfully familiar; DeasVail, Shoshin and the worst are all ranked identically at 5/6/7, with the other flipped pun ranked near the top. Most of the bottom contains players we know to be town. The highest unflipped, noncleared player in this is DeasVail, at 5. Same as before.

This is quite interesting to me!

[the worst]

I just need to check a thing, I might be mistaken and don't want to start barking up the wrong tree unnecessarily

[the worst]

going hiking see you guys later, I'll try and get back into this game asap

[Punreader]

Spoiler: Chara/Krazy's formatting

Chara
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Nahdia
Punreader
the worst
Shoshin
MariaR
Dunnstral
DeasVail
Espeonage
Fire Assassin
Lovebird
PenguinPower
NicoRobin
Vaxkiller
Pine
Srceenplay

i'm just upset about this list now with the night results. :<

Not Name - rank.

Spoiler: My Rankings

10 - Taly
10 - Punreader
10 - DeasVail
9 - the worst
8 - Shoshin
7 - Screenplay
6 - Chara
6 - Vaxkiller
5 - Nahdia
5 - Fire Assassin
4 - Pine
4 - Dunnstral
3 - TehBrawlGuy
2 - Espeonage
1 - Lovebird
0 - NicoRobin
0 - MariaR
0 - PenguinPower

Rank - Name. (Inverse of Fire Assassin and Nahdia formatting.)

Spoiler: Espeonage formatting

10 - Myself
10 - Vaxkiller
10 - Dunnstral
9 - TehBrawlGuy
8 - Taly
7 - the worst
6 - Deas Veil
6 - Penguinpower
5 - MariaR
5 - Chara
4 - punreader
4 - Nahdia
3 - Shoshin
2 - Srceenplay
1 - Lovebird
0 - Nico Robin
0 - Pine
0 - Fire Assassin

Rank - Name. Inverse, same as DeasVail.

Spoiler: ManWithNoName/guacamole's formatting

10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP

Not name - rank.

Spoiler: Shoshin's formatting

10 - myself
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - the worst
8 - TBG
7 - Screen
6 - DV
6 - Dunn
5 - Pun
5 - Vax
4 - Nico
4 - Nahdia
3 - Espeonage
2 - Fire
1 - Pine
0 - Lovebird
0 - Penguin
0 - MariaR

Rank - name. Inverse.

Spoiler: the worst's formatting

OK w/e
10 - the worst
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - Espeonage
8 - MariaR
7 - Nahdia
6 - TehBrawlGuy
6 - DeasVail
5 - Punreader
5 - PenguinPower
4 - Vaxkiller
4 - Pine
3 - Shoshin
2 - Dunnstral
1 - Fire Assassin
0 - Srceenplay
0 - ReubenWasFine
0 - NicoRobin

Rank - name. Inverse.

Spoiler: Vaxkiller's formatting

Vaxkiller
Pine
Nahdia
Fire Assassin
PenguinPower
Punreader
Srceenplay
DeasVail
the worst
Lovebird
Espeonage
Shoshin
Chara
Dunnstral
NicoRobin
MariaR
Taly
TehBrawlGuy

[/quote] Not name-rank.

Well

darn

.

It was worth a try at least.

Pet theory is that both remaining pun used rank - name as their formatting, but I really got nothing but gut feeling to justify it.

[Punreader]

Hmm.

VOTE: Shoshin.

I may be wrong about the worst being pun.

[Punreader]

Important question which makes a difference to VCA:

Passive: Siphon Soul

(

Prepare the rituals!

) -- If someone is killed during the Night Phase and you were voting them the previous Day Phase, you gain 1 Soul.

MOD: Is this the end-of-day votecount only, or does it apply during the whole day phase?

That is, if Fire Assassin voted a player during the day but switched his vote elsewhere, and the player he switched off of died during the night, would it count?

Tremendous difference between a yes or no here in terms of how to interpret data.