micro 816-II: pokemon go (open game) (gambe over)

[Aronis]

VOTE: Kokichi

@Aronis, who are you liking the chances of being scum best right now?

Honestly I'm frustrated enough that I'd kill anybody that isn't you, me, or shoshin

[stungun0404]

@aronis: what do you think of kokichi? is that a vote you are OK with?

@shoshin: you as well!

i think kokichi should be a serious lynch option today because i feel there is a good shot he flips scum. if you are willing to sheep me on nsg, aronis, are you willing to sheep me on kokichi?

meanwhile i will continue sifting thru kokichi’s content, but i am pretty sure it is not coming from town

[stungun0404]

nsg is similarly sure it is not coming from town, fwiw! so that makes 2 of us

[Shoshin]

Stun, what're your thoughts on Profii?

[stungun0404]

Stungun seems to be struggling to scum hunt but trying in their own unconventional way

Aronis declaring themselves not scum hunting is a big alarm bell

My gut feeling is Shoshin is politically moving the vote around for buddying to try and split the pack as it were

GIF seems ok but I can’t read RC well so I’m not the authority on that

Whilst inactivity is annoying - if it is scum, I guess it indicates we are not putting scum under pressure thus, but I’ll hear NSG out

I also have Kokis PM explaination in my mind that he got the reject PM which could be a scum sign

does profii know more about kokichi than i, hmm?

profii-kokichi scum team ftw?

both my friemd and i could see kokichi and profii both being scum; we think gif just might be town after all.

Stungun seems to be struggling to scum hunt but trying in their own unconventional way

Aronis declaring themselves not scum hunting is a big alarm bell

My gut feeling is Shoshin is politically moving the vote around for buddying to try and split the pack as it were

GIF seems ok but I can’t read RC well so I’m not the authority on that

Whilst inactivity is annoying - if it is scum, I guess it indicates we are not putting scum under pressure thus, but I’ll hear NSG out

I also have Kokis PM explaination in my mind that he got the reject PM which could be a scum sign

Stungun seems to be struggling to scum hunt but trying in their own unconventional way

Aronis declaring themselves not scum hunting is a big alarm bell

My gut feeling is Shoshin is politically moving the vote around for buddying to try and split the pack as it were

GIF seems ok but I can’t read RC well so I’m not the authority on that

Whilst inactivity is annoying - if it is scum, I guess it indicates we are not putting scum under pressure thus, but I’ll hear NSG out

I also have Kokis PM explaination in my mind that he got the reject PM which could be a scum sign

So basically everyone could be scum and you don't have any thoughts about who it is?

Well the point of that post was

stun - prob not scum
Aronis - scum read
Shoshin - scum lean (though i later retract that)
Gif - no idea right now but if you held a gun to my head I’ll go town
NSG - whilst lurking is bad, I’ll aboid reading a slot on 2 posts
Koki - scum lean


So 8 players excluding myself, I’ve offered 3 potential scum slots
I’m leaning most strongly towards Aronis


So basically everyone actually is less than half


There are other times where I would call this shade and say you are scummy for it but your meta diving is swaying me towards saying you are someone who has confidence in their convictions and when you believe in something you will lead your wagon rather than sheep someone else’s

If some other players come in with “yes this fits your meta” uncontested I’ll basically lock town you tbh despite me thinking there are flaws in your case - the intentions seem pure

scum heavy analysis, including a scum lean on kokichi that is never followed as far as a vote goes... hmm...

[stungun0404]

VOTE: aronis
L-2

this vote reeks mislynch all over it

l-2’ing aronis with no attached reasoning? don’t like this

you scum read him the post before, but you have so many scum leans in your analysis there that this looks like a scummy push for you to choose this of all lynchwagons you could have

i am similarly, like kokichi’s iso, having trouble towning much of your content here so far... so you are probably scum

[stungun0404]

@kokichi, are you town this game?

Unfortunately

with hindsight, this might be telling...

even though gamma picked first, kokichi shows a propensity for scum roles here by saying ‘unfortunately’ he is town.

[stungun0404]

Aronis is coming over like a scums dream rn actually

Someone they can sit back and let the town mislynch with no intervention

this reads weird considering you scumread him not long after and vote him

[stungun0404]

Spoiler: current strongest boys

Vote count 1.8

stungun0404 (3):

Kokichi Oma, NicoRobin, GirlInFreezer

Aronis (3):

Shoshin, Creature, profii

Kokichi Oma (1):

northsidegal

NicoRobin (1):

stungun0404

not voting (1):

Aronis

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. day 1 ends august 13 at 02:00 central US time; in (expired on 2018-08-13 02:00:00)

fitting that as of last vote count, profii and kokichi were on opposing wagons.

srsly could see this scum team being a thing, it makes sense. so i’d vote either out

[stungun0404]

Profii, why is NSG town?

I liked the way she sorted my slot. There was a balance of paranoia which seemed genuine

I also like the Koki scum read which is getting lost and imo deserves more attention

Where did Koki express that preference ?

But Koki said he got sloppy seconds (I know he could lie)

I say let’s wagon him. We need to shake the game up to find associations

VOTE: Koki

plausible distancing? i could see it

i will fully analyze everything else later to see if it still consistently brings me here, but both are in my scumpile clearly right now.

i will have to still reinvestigate gif to make sure everything i am saying here is still consistent

[profii]

How does 782 fit in a plausible distancing narrative, Stun?

[Kokichi Oma]

Profil you had me as scum earlier after NSG voted me, what changed?

well this post turned out to be a bit of a sprawl of thoughts, oops... (advance warning)

mainly, my read on you was pretty early/weak and also that I'm very convinced on Aronis/GIF, obviously there can only be 2.

My read on you was based on that PM Speculation stuff, which is ok when the game is kind of finding it's direction and to see how you deal with the scum read - but it doesn't really warrant progressing if your play isn't alarming as we get going. Whereas the interactions between Aronis/GIF seem clear to me, also the way Aronis has disappeared and the way GIF has no direction despite being a good player seems outrageous to me.

I don't think I've ever played T/T with you which is when I get my best reads, therefore my ability to be certain on you is not great, but you are not a cause for concern right now compared to others. That doesn't mean if I'm wrong on Aronis/GIF that you are next in line, it probably means if I'm wrong, then full reset from me.

I am pretty sure Aronis has gone slightly awol as pressure is on right now and he isn't sure how to deal with it, but he is approaching prod territory so I look forward to that.
Also, there are the mutual scum reads very early between Gif and Aronis, which never really follow through to any real pressure - I'd particularly expect GIF to have honed in on something by now, not just calling me scum whenever I put the pressure on him.

I also refer back to my Creature vote. The time line in my head goes a little bit like this:

3 votes on GIF
GIF gets upset
people remove votes because GIF upset (Really? no one has seen that before?)
I gave GIF an out with a creature vote, given he had been looking towards the inactives at that period in time.
GIF doesn't follow it

to me, the natural thing to do, particularly on day 1 is to wagon an inactive slot and see what happens, hence I am scum reading aronis because he has succumbed to pressure. However, I think GIF didn't want to get on the "obvious town cred" creature wagon, for that reason, the other reason being, pressure on Creature would mean more creature content, meaning one more slot that becomes obv-town - making it harder for scum.

This post was helpful, thanks

[Kokichi Oma]

anyways, despite that post being pretty bad i think i kind of agree with creature when it comes to scumreads, although i can't really see where a nicorobin read anywhere separate from null would come in, unless you're looking at role pm choice meta.

I put creature and Nico on the same place in my reads list cause I cant see either picking scum, but they could have been forced to

[Kokichi Oma]

why are you so attentive kokichi to tracking the voting patterns of gif? is it because you are scum partners? or is profii your scum partner? time will tell.

Lol

[Kokichi Oma]

Stungun thinking he can read me is laughable, also your meta on me is wrong. Show me links where I act like the way you're saying I am as scum

[stungun0404]

somebody here is boss at manipulating for real

one of kokichi or profii pretty much is scum by my assessment; i can fully eval profii and gif though tomorrow and finish kokichi. it would be optimal, however, if i could case it on my computer as opposed to my tablet, so thus why i will wait roughly 15-ish hours

just throwing out some ideas that seemed plausible to me; profii you do have a point with 782, but i don’t think it is a post that conclusively rules you two out from being partners, just makes it a bit less plausible

i had not even addressed that post - which shows i had not considered the entire thread yet for kokichi, profii, or gif.

so in-depth cases for those three coming tomorrow!

[stungun0404]

*at least one of

[Shoshin]

Stun's very likely town.

[profii]

Stun

If you’re not finished that’s fine - it just seemed you’d picked the result you wanted and we’re finding my posts that fit - hence I picked one that went against what you were trying to say

I am sure if you have more to do, you will come out with a balanced view

[profii]

I feel like this game is stalling and not honing in on some viable lynch candidates for the day.

My speculation is we haven’t really pushed anyone beyond 3 votes - to be fair with a majority of 5, I see why but maybe scum feel comfortable enough that the predominant wagons are changing with the wind and we’ve either totally missed them or they are confident

I still say #1 preference is Aronis - if it’s not going to happen I’ll need to be convinced

[profii]

Caveat with this game has been coming alive at USA time zones which is sleepy time for me but things usually pick up post weekend and excluding stun here I’m not sure we are moving forward

[Kokichi Oma]

Stun im waiting on you to show me the meta you're talking about

[GirlInFreezer]

this town fell apart when shoshin and nsg stopped posting

[stungun0404]

continuing kokichi, now where did i leave off? looks like 614.

in 615: calls out gif push as garbage, but apparently has taken the stance that the pushes on me so far have not been garbage, which is interesting to note. why would you think the push is garbage when i had explicitly mentioned i am withholding reasoning on it. seems like you are trying to instigate something out of seemingly nothing there.

619: lol, i refer kokichi to meta my most recent scum game, and his immediate reaction is "how long ago was it?" as if looking for a direct excuse NOT to. i tell him it finished a week ago, but then never get another peep from it out of kokichi--implying he wasn't gonna bother reading it regardless of how long ago it was. so pointless question that scum asks there as a way of trying to avoid iso'ing that game. it's pointless because no follow-up.

691: as of this post, it is absolutely a false statement if you are stating that you have scumread other people than me. i have literally been your ONLY scumread as of post 691; the only player you have really even seriously considered as scum. this looks like you wanting to capitalize on my mislynch potentiality while not testing the waters anywhere else this day phase.

you had said creature is likely town at an early stage granted, and townread rc, and that you liked shoshin as town, but you literally had only focused on the potential of me and me alone being scum. why not seriously consider other options? this especially looks bad when i myself know i am town; can you see how this looks bad from my perspective? it's like you are afraid of scumreading anyone else thus far.

705: finally, you give a reads list! but prior to this point, you had not said a word about profii potentially being scum --> and for that matter no one but me. so what in your mind made you put him in the scum zone?

also, curious why girlinfreezer is obv town in your reads, and aronis would classify as a scum lean; i would think nicorobin would have been a bigger scum lean of yours if you had questioned me at an early point about him being lurkier as scum and her classifying as hella lurky this game.

VOTE: NicoRobin because he's scum

Nah

If NicoRobins scum style is lurking I don’t think she chooses the scum PM

What if both were scum roles then and she had no choice? Why rule out that possibility?

this is very improbable; we worry about that imo if we see a scum flip of the slot in the other game. scum tend to favor possibility > probability more often than town, and that has so far been a good scum tell for me, so this might be a scum suggestive post if you have one.

it is very likely scum calls a point like this to serious attention, and that town just lets that possibility go by the wayside because of its unlikeliness. town would rather worry about that later. my question is if town, why seriously feel the urge to call this into question, knowing that it is seriously very improbable.

Kokichi is wrongly tunneled on me

Why am I wrong?

lol. another unnecessary question. you are wrong if town, but are technically playing to your wincon if scum.

763: i think you are scum now, to answer your question.

814: well, i haven't seen you as scum before, so of course you would point that out. but i have seen you as town multiple times, and your gameplay here just has a very strange, scummy feeling to it, that i cannot ignore. does not seem like you are town looking at the content focus of your posts so far.

updated confidence read: 43% kokichi is town (+5%) since last read. will adjust this in accordance with the other reads of gif and profii i determine.


@shoshin, you said you wanted to consult with your friemd. can you look into kokichi's iso while explicitly looking for town markers and let me know what you guys can find? because i'm lost trying to find any myself; which probably implicates kokichi as scum. i want to see if you can correlate with my read here, essentially seeing what i am seeing.

p-edit: of course there are 2 additional posts when i go to post this, making me have to edit the post tags, lmao!

[Shoshin]

NSG never posted much...