NY 213 - Game Over!

[Krazy]

Ank started reading the words.

How do you get town over scum for KK?

I'm not disagreeing strongly, I just have a hard time moving KK out of null in either direction.

[Ankamius]

Hopkirk is conftown via Flavor Leaf
Wavemode is conftown unless scum with Tchill13 + Gamma Emerald, which is hilariously bad and one of the dumbest gambits I've ever seen if true
Tchill13 is conftown via setup

Creature is town via personality tell - he has a meta tell of being a lot less engaged as scum than town; I don't personally think that meta tell is worth bothering with, but the type of personality that would make this tell usable in the first place is the same type of personality that wouldn't come into a day phase where town is suddenly coming together in force and be one of the single most active proponents in furthering it along. It doesn't fit.

Golden Robster is town via gamestate - one, I think scum would be far more likely to try to maintain the obstinate posting style that the slot had up to this point; the faltering at the end of day 5 (likely a big part from my being REALLY LOUD ABOUT EVERYONE BEING AN IDIOT AND CALLING HIM OUT SPECIFICALLY) looked like town-faltering rather than scum mainly via the timing of it; the defeatism is probably true, his reads don't look scum, etc. --- his entire game is very damn good acting if he's scum, but it's far more likely that that he's just flat out town

Hiloninja13 is town via personality tell - Mylo is not a strong player personality-wise and as both alignments tries to play in the way that makes him the least burdensome to his alignment. this is the biggest reason I think his posting today is strongly town indicative; if scum-mylo saw how big the townblock was becoming and noticed that several players were starting to shift their focus towards him, I really don't think he would've been so casual about his responses. at the same time, I can see town-him seeing how big the townblock was becoming and being mostly okay with the pressure since him being lynched wouldn't be a game-losing play (and in fact, might even be +town equity in his eyes)

TehBrawlGuy is probably town via gamestate thanks to the texcat Vanilla Cop flip, but I don't think any of his posting has been especially town

Kublai Khan and Skygazer are aligning with how I'd expect town to be approaching this game, but it's not backed up with anything; I'm not going to lock either of these slots until I can be reasonably sure it's not a potential powerwolf play
Vaxkiller I barely remember at all
Gamma Emerald and Krazy look scummy via their posting today, JarJarDrinks is scummy until he starts posting more direct content, in which I will judge based on that afterwards

[Ankamius]

one of the dumbest gambits I've ever seen if true

ftr just to emphasize this point

I saw the serial killer fakeclaim bodyguard in a game with multiple blatantly obvtown power roles on day 2 before

[Krazy]

You could be right. A large part of my confidence in JJD going into today had to deal with my confidence in Tchill being scum. I had no need to re-evaluate my TR of JJD because I had a full scum team just sitting there: Tchill, GR, and then either wave, KK, or deepscum.

JJD being scum would fit with Dunn being always fucking right about everything though. And texcat was also... weird? toward JJD, which I mostly attributed to texcat being scum. But if texcat literally never bussed anyone, then JJD flips scum before GR. Guess it depends on whether you think texcat literally played on the assumption she never, ever gets flipped.

But it also has to involve what you prioritize more, townslips or scumslips. I feel like JJD has been townslipping all over this game, that he's not posting now mostly because of real life but probably also because of tilt over being wrong on texcat. You do realize that not posting after being THAT WRONG is literally NAI right? Particularly for a powergamer like JJD.

My problem with JJD being town at this point has a lot more to do with numbers. With wave and Tchill now both likely conftown, I really don't have a lot of room for scumteam that doesn't include JJD. So, numbers suggest at this point that I can easily be wrong in my read. But I still think JJD flips town before GR does. And I still think GR flips scum before JJD does.

But... at this point, I honestly wouldn't put money on JJD flipping one way or the other. Tchill's roleclaim has rocked my read of the gamestate pretty hard.

[Ankamius]

Like we are close to the point where we have to consider that all the town alive aren't dead for a reason, so

Food for thought

I'll do a real nka tomorrow

I think that still holds a pretty strong key to who the scumteam is and the n5 kill will probably be a break

Like how much of the past 3 in game days have actually mattered

Because I see a lot of infighting and I suspect there's a lot of TvT going on

Entertaining means what

Giving someone the will to still want to play the game.

Well

I don't really know what to say beyond everyone should be fighting a lot less and trying to find town to work with instead of going hero mode in a playerlist that is all trying to go hero mode

It not only makes the game unreadable but it also makes getting accurate reads nearly impossible

Like usually I can get a good grasp of gamestates this chaotic but holy fuck this game is a train wreck to try to get anything out of

I'm convinced that the fact we have a scum flip is either a planned bus by the scumteam or a complete accident

My reads are irrelevant to whether I die or not

If I die, it's because I'm trying to FIX the issues that town is having this game, so really you should be sheeping just that

Btw

If a town that wasn't going hero mode in general dies, take that as a red flag too

BY THE WAY GUYS, THIS IS THE GAMESTATE TYPE I SPECIALIZE IN DESTROYING TOWNS IN AS SCUM. TRUST ME, I KNOW WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT

THE MOST DISRUPTIVE OBVTOWN WILL BE ALIVE UNTIL THE CHAOS NATURALLY ENDS DUE TO NUMBERS WHILE THE TOWN NOT ADDING TO THE CHAOS GET SYSTEMATICALLY KILLED

THAT'S HOW SCUM PLAYS THIS TYPE OF GAME AND THE AMOUNT OF TOWN WE HAVE BEEN LYNCHING IS STRONG EVIDENCE OF THIS

TAKE A STEP BACK AND REASSESS YOUR APPROACH SINCE THIS GAME IS ON A HIGHWAY TO A STRONG SCUM WIN AT THIS RATE

Btw

Texcat is not a scum counterpush to two scum wagons, the timing itself is proof of that

[Ankamius]

6108 is especially hilarious to me because the Sajj kill is a huge part of how town wins this game if we're accurate right now

[Ankamius]

(I'm very confident in my current reads list btw

I don't think I'm wrong about the conftown list and the only way I think I'm wrong about my obvtown list is if scum are operating in a very different way than I think they are, which would allow for GR-scum)

[Krazy]

I like that you've started taking stances on players based on reads of their play rather than pure NKA and VCA. I'm not sure what you were doing with 6754 tho. Did you need to remind us of your WIFOM about being a NK?

[Ankamius]

Basically a reminder of how scum were playing the game before today, mainly the part about how bad towns reads were overall

[Ankamius]

I like that you've started taking stances on players based on reads of their play rather than pure NKA and VCA. I'm not sure what you were doing with 6754 tho. Did you need to remind us of your WIFOM about being a NK?

This is because the game is readable now and wasn't before now

[Krazy]

I like what you're doing. But your argument is that GR is town because of her AtE. Look at how close we are to a solve here. The biggest nulls and leanscums just flipped conftown. The scum powergamer probably gets flipped today or tomorrow, or maybe even two scum lynches in a row if it's JJD+GR. And you think scum doesn't just throw in the towel here? Like, they're looking at this race, and they don't see a win here. GR's self-vote is highly indicative of scum that knows they have lost.

[Ankamius]

why do you feel the need to tell me that you like what I'm doing

[Krazy]

I like it when people who are town bother to read the game rather than pretending they can solve it purely through an iso of Ircher.

[Ankamius]

I like it when people who are town bother to read the game rather than pretending they can solve it purely through an iso of Ircher.

oh for my 'analysis' for the day

sajj is town
dunnstral is probably town

thank you for your time everybody

beautiful
now vote for who you think is scum instead of soapboxing about the two leading wagons being town

VOTE: texcat

[Krazy]

K guess that came off as douchey but it was kinda meant to be a joke. Looking at it now I can see it doesn't read that way tho. I wasn't trying to downplay you.

I feel like you're feeling defensive but you did literally just say you were confident in your reads after saying GR was likely town for reasons that don't make sense to me. "Good analysis but I disagree with some of your conclusions" --> "I like what you're doing. But..."

[Ankamius]

what are your reads at overall currently

[Tchill13]

not sure why you "have trouble explaining thoughts" ank.

This stuff is great.

[JarJarDrinks]

Gonna divide my day into 3 parts (hopefully I get through em all, if not I'll finish tomorrow).

- Catchup - gonna read the last 20 pages or so and post my thoughts as I go through em

- Defend my myself - I will do my best to convince y'all to vote elsewhere and not hand me my first mislynch in 20+ games on this site

- Readslist - planning on going through every living persons ISO and giving y'all a comprehensive list. I will do this regardless of whether I'm getting roped today or not

[JarJarDrinks]

Alright, guys, before Ank posts her thoughts in detail, which of JJD or Wave do we lynch first? I'm having a hard time making a concrete choice. I have a lean between the two, but I want to know what the thread thinks.

not a fan of creating this false dichotomy especially not explaining why us specifically since there were other people off the wagon.

[JarJarDrinks]

I figured more ppl would be pushing me at opening lol.

I'll just follow the majority now. Doesn't mean I'm wrong on TBG or sajj.

Well we were wrong on sajj obv. Tex did spend most of the day voting for TBG so it looks less likely today.

[JarJarDrinks]

I'm only lynching with the majority from now on.

My reads have been crap. If you want to lynch me fine. I'm not scum though.

I've flailed and pointed almost louder than anyone this game. To a fault.

feels real

[JarJarDrinks]

JJD thought he was carrying this game, then he realized he was horrendously wrong, today will be rough for him regardless

Yeah this. Has never happened to me before (fighting a scum lynch as town).

It's always been my opinion that whenever a townie gets lynched, it's almost always their fault. If this mislynch goes through then I'll have no one else to blame.

[JarJarDrinks]

I'm not okay with that.

I'm also not OK with town clearing ank just because she's stepping into the town lead.

not ok w/ locking TBG in as town but shouldn't be looking there today IMO.

[JarJarDrinks]

think I'm partially lost right now in terms of reads; the players that I hard TR and hard SR have taken a 180

U said TBG bussed tex tho? Werent u SRing TBG previously also?

[JarJarDrinks]

D5 reads

Conf town

: Hopkirk

Town

: KK, JJD,

Leaning Town

: Tchill, Krazy

Semi-Leaning Town

: Texcat (dead), Wavemode, Mylo
Null/Undecided: Vax

Semi-Leaning Scum

: Creature, Gamma, Skygazer, Anka

Leaning Scum

: SS (dead), TBG

Scum

:

flip these reads

Conf town

: Hopkirk

Town

:

Leaning Town

: SS (dead), TBG

Semi-leaning town

: Creature, Gamma, Skygazer, Anka

Null/undecided

: Vax

Semi-leaning scum

: Wavemode, Mylo

Leaning scum

: Tchill, Krazy

Scum

: KK, JJD

So why start the day w:

okay this might sound stupid but tbg bussed texcat