micro 816-II: pokemon go (open game) (gambe over)

[northsidegal]

interesting decision

[NicoRobin]

I asked you to prove something and gave you a chance to clear yourself, but you would rather heckle me. Okay then......

[profii]

@stungun Considering what Creature said, I believe he is a JK with a guilty on nsg, so I am going there for now.

can you go a bit more into why you think this is the most likely scenario?

particularly as 2 people who claim they have excellent reads on NSG - considering there are 2 people claiming this, at least one isn't NSG's scum mate

[northsidegal]

I asked you to prove something and gave you a chance to clear yourself, but you would rather heckle me. Okay then......

i'm not heckling you

how would i

possibly

prove that, in the scenario that creature is the jailer and he jailed me, that scum shot me rather than he stopped me

i can't "prove" something from a

hypothetical situation

in the first place

[NicoRobin]

@stungun Considering what Creature said, I believe he is a JK with a guilty on nsg, so I am going there for now.

can you go a bit more into why you think this is the most likely scenario?

particularly as 2 people who claim they have excellent reads on NSG - considering there are 2 people claiming this, at least one isn't NSG's scum mate

Because Occam's razor.

Can you tell me why it isn't likely?

[northsidegal]

apart from the simple truth of my being town eliminating that possibility, there's the fact that if creature was a jailer that had jailed me to stop the kill he would presumably have claimed it

(there's also the fact that he hasn't actually softed being jailer as far as i know)

[Creature]

also, creature; the irony of the way you're pushing me right now just occurred to me. don't you think it's a little funny?

Bah, not ironic.

[Creature]

Not claiming JK.

[Creature]

VOTE: MariaR

[northsidegal]

also, creature; the irony of the way you're pushing me right now just occurred to me. don't you think it's a little funny?

Bah, not ironic.

eh, i think it's pretty ironic when you think about it. at least, i'm sure you know the feeling that i have right now.

[profii]

@stungun Considering what Creature said, I believe he is a JK with a guilty on nsg, so I am going there for now.

can you go a bit more into why you think this is the most likely scenario?

particularly as 2 people who claim they have excellent reads on NSG - considering there are 2 people claiming this, at least one isn't NSG's scum mate

Because Occam's razor.

Can you tell me why it isn't likely?

It could be scum!creature baiting the JK - that implies a trade of creature for any kind of counter claim. Unlikely because it is quite apparent the scum are hiding well in this game. E.g. if I was the scum partner I'm under quite a push from Stun and partially Maria - if creature traded for JK then I wouldn't be confident in reaching end game, so as I know I'm town - perhaps scum are more confident that scum#2 is more hidden / or we are on the wrong track, whatever.

so then lets look at the JK!Creature scenario = NSG was either the target or the executor, we don't really know. I am not confident in my scum reads in this game, so I would probably guess scum feel like they are in a strong position. Therefore would you kill among the actives? No - we are apparently all wrong - particularly this 1v1 between me and Scum, so let the active players continue to be wrong - kill within the in-actives. This increases the odds of NSG being the target.

Then there are 2 players who claim strong town meta on NSG - this means, if NSG was scum, then only 1 of those 2 claimants can possibly be scum. Even if both claimants happened to be scum, it's simply TMI, again making NSG town as scum know for sure.


That mainly covers the NSG!target scenario, let's look at the NSG!scum scenario.
Creature is probably right in thinking me and Stun is TvT - we also lynched aronis and he knows his own role, that means he has a JK pool of only 5 players, 2 of which are scum.
He also knows the kill is likely to be in the pool of 5 - this gives a 40% chance success rate of stopping the kill (via save or block)

Those remaining players are Maria, Nico, NSG, Koki, Shoshin - if I was a JK, I'd probably try and block a kill and pick one of the first 3 in that list. Koki and Shoshi seem towny too so my PoE is that you / NSG and possibly Maria are scum. It's a decent chance of blocking a kill.



that's how I would have approached JK last night anyway if I was creature - we don't even know if he really is JK, he could be scum bait


the point is there are so many twists and turns, I don't know how you can just go 'yeah occams razor'

[NicoRobin]

Creature implied being a JK with a guilty on nsg, and it's more likely that he is. That's Occam's razor for ya.

[NicoRobin]

And you yourself said one of me/nsg/maria has a high possibility of being scum, which increases the odds of nsg being scum rather than decreasing them like you believe.

[Creature]

also, creature; the irony of the way you're pushing me right now just occurred to me. don't you think it's a little funny?

Bah, not ironic.

eh, i think it's pretty ironic when you think about it. at least, i'm sure you know the feeling that i have right now.

What's ironic then?

[northsidegal]

Creature implied being a JK with a guilty on nsg, and it's more likely that he is. That's Occam's razor for ya.

And you yourself said one of me/nsg/maria has a high possibility of being scum, which increases the odds of nsg being scum rather than decreasing them like you believe.

[northsidegal]

What's ironic then?

maybe that's not irony. just felt like i was in a situation that you've been in a lot of times before.

[Creature]

Btw, I had nsg push planned before the night end FYI.

[profii]

Creature implied being a JK with a guilty on nsg, and it's more likely that he is. That's Occam's razor for ya.

ok so why is NSG more likely to be a caught scum rather than a defended towny.

[Creature]

What's ironic then?

maybe that's not irony. just felt like i was in a situation that you've been in a lot of times before.

You've just been less pushed about it because RC apparently wanted to clear you asap.

[NicoRobin]

Creature implied being a JK with a guilty on nsg, and it's more likely that he is. That's Occam's razor for ya.

ok so why is NSG more likely to be a caught scum rather than a defended towny.

And you yourself said one of me/nsg/maria has a high possibility of being scum, which increases the odds of nsg being scum rather than decreasing them like you believe.

[Kokichi Oma]

dear stungun: i have entirely stopped reading your posts.

This game is hilarious

[Kokichi Oma]

I'm not even sure what to think right now

[stungun0404]

dear stungun: i have entirely stopped reading your posts.

also, creature; the irony of the way you're pushing me right now just occurred to me. don't you think it's a little funny?

really

?

this is exactly what i am sick of this game. getting ignored without cause.

literally makes me want to replace out of this game. i’m so fucking frustrated over this shit and have never had to deal with this to this level before

i could post anything and ppl would ignore it this game

[stungun0404]

yeah. i’m done with this thread. don’t expect anything more from me this day phase

[Shoshin]

Irrelephant wants this:

VOTE: Profii