NY214: Project Pinecone (Game over! Town wins!)

[Raskolnikov]

or... multiball... ......

[Raskolnikov]

Either TW is scum (SK or multiball in a smaller secondary team) or there's a 6th mafia

actually it's possible the game is already a technical loss

[Raskolnikov]

If there's another scumteam

(A) Ausuka is town, but there is a 2nd scum tracker
TW
irrelephant ? (would track ausuka by then)
2 of nosferatu, brassherald, jingle (via reads I still think taly was probably town... brass as a d2 couldve been a track)
(not chickadee)

(B) Ausuka is 2ndscumteam disloyal fruit vendor
ugh

[Raskolnikov]

Chickadee is probably town

I'm wondering if the game is in technical loss right now as it probably is if there is another scumteam with 4 members

[Raskolnikov]

*technically not autoloss but effectively so

[Raskolnikov]

oh yeah taly was irrel fuck. and multiball really ruins both but moreso infernos towniness for pushing dram

zzzzz
anyways

I feel like for balance reasons one of ausuka or nos has to be town because we'd just be kinda gimped otherwise with lack of investigations (gamma was useful but that's just 1)

if (A) because ausuka played a lot townier
TW could actually be multitasking tracker
alternatively irrelephant is tracker

jingle, nosferatu and brassherald are probably their claimed roles regardless of align for multiple reasons, the setup theme pine did seem to do one of everything, but also and in part because of that, fakeclaiming such roles would be extra risky in terms of attracting a possible counterclaim and scum would be averse

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: The Worst

the possibility of TW being vig now is miniscule for a few reasons

1) if there's a multiball (or sk?) outside of TW, they must have had their kill blocked n1 and then never chose to act again after seeing TW claim vig kill. it is somewhat unlikely they'd be blocked this way to begin with n1 but especially that they'd maintain this over so many nights. This also seems unlikely as there would be so many killing roles too for a ostensibly normal-balanced game

2) if vig he actually should have a modifier of some form, and I thought maybe he was keeping it close but when asked he acted as if the notion was absurd

3) it is technically possible there is a 6th mafscum and singleball although rare this would be, however in this case the game would still be winnable (and in fact should even be unlosable?)

it is possible I'm being full paranoia with the multiball spec at this moment (and its probably pointless regardless as the game is essentially lost anyways if 4/8 are scum here) and SK DOES seem both far more balanced here both in a normal-balanced setup sense but also as it was in fact mentioned in the "new normal roles" post which seems to have so thoroughly influenced this game setup as well

finally there is some question as to why the duck would act as he had. it is rather bizarre in a way that he'd out n2 however
I have seem duck make questionable moves as scum so unfortunately this isnt even something to his credit...
in our recently finished game (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=76627) the duck was scum and the scumpool was between him and his partner an encryptor. he softed PR as a goon which lead to us lynching his encryptor partner (first ouch) but then he decided to fakeclaim a gunsmith guilty onto town, an act which AT BEST would have traded his life 1 for 1 with a town but in that scenario I had proof he was lying so he just died then. anyways the gist of it is I don't think he has any problems with unorthodox play or gambits that eventually hurt him so claiming vig as SK is something I see a lot more viable from him than most other people...

[Raskolnikov]

the addendum to that is initially by this point I though TW should shoot town instead of scum skygazer, but then I realise maybe he did in fact think skygazer was town and possibly doctor instead of nos(not doctor and scummier play tbh) or elsewhere

[Raskolnikov]

Granted I don't particularly want to waste time with this day if it's actually 4:4 and (essentially autoloss) so I would want to see if certain players do think so or there is characteristic stuckness (and quietness) of such autoloss as people frantically type in their PTs and what not

[Raskolnikov]

if it's 4:4 my heart will be sad

[the worst]

VOTE: Nos

I'm still vig and we won off play not associatives so like..... mb doesn't seem like an intuitive answer...

Lynch me the day before LyLo if you're not convinced Rasky. There's still a fakeclaim out there by way of the unexplained loud modifier (SK!me does not explain the wacky night actions). so we still have solving to do.

[the worst]

also reasoning for Sky kill was pretty obvious like

she was like 60%ish scum and not lynchable (and if I mislynch her again it'll break my hearttttt). Nos is like 70% scum and his lynch has a lot more support

[the worst]

I should be like.... clear town on play by now. town balances out a larger scumteam by sheer power (disloyal FV is like close to negative utility to boot--especially by MoI claiming right out the gate and getting cc'd by Ausuka).

[the worst]

Other option is lynch Nos => Chickadee (venge TW) into LyLo I think

that's probably optimal

[Raskolnikov]

If there is a 6th singleball scum it is nos.
But being wary of multiball and being wrong doesn't end the game.
Not being wary of multiball and being wrong does.

[the worst]

6th?

[the worst]

Ausuka
brassherald - conftown by Ausuka
the worst
Jingle
Chickadee
Raskolnikov - conftown by Ausuka
Irrelephant11
Nosferatu


If I am groupscum who do you think my buddies are here?

[Raskolnikov]

I think there is a possibility TW thought sky was protective rather than maf.

Mmm multiball. Though if it's 4:4 it's gg anyways, 2 scumteams of 4 is possibly a bit much for a normal balanced game, this could possibly be in 5:3.

50% TW is just SK
20% 4+4 multiball (end of story essentially)
15% 4+3 (or 4+2 but seems unlikely)
15% 5th scum nos

[the worst]

if we're in 4:4:x for some ridiculous reason and you lynch me town instantly loses so.... I don't mean to turn into a melting pot of AtE but lynch one of my '"partners"" and I'll shoot another one tonight.

correct play if you're worried this is lylo isn't to lynch the vig who has been obvtown all game. it's to lynch people with high scum equity by play because you're more likely to hit another scumfaction.

If you think I'm soloscum, you should lynch to finish groupscum first here imo since I'm dead before LyLo anyway.

[the worst]

50% TW is just SK
20% 4+4 multiball (end of story essentially)
15% 4+3 (or 4+2 but seems unlikely)
15% 5th scum nos

If you feel this way then look at how urgent these situations are to resolve.

most urgent

4+4
4+3
5vX
SK!tw

least urgent

[the worst]

my mind keeps having flashes of paranoia about scum!suka but she is actually town by play like. ~80% here.

[the worst]

someone tell me Rask isn't TMIing about mb
that's ultimate tinfoil right

[the worst]

oh fuck

why is there a fruit vendor in a setup without a tracker or a watcher and who the fuck is the loud modifier person

how does town have an ungated vig and ungated townclearing potential?....the only counter to any of this is a mafia prime number night jailkeeper to the vig

[Raskolnikov]

4+4 is essentially hopeless anyways though as there is literally not the voting power available to lynch scum the game is more or less over even if still running so yes 4+3 is my concern

5vX vs SK is arguable but I feel like it almost doesnt matter as game is won regardless. if you are not SK or multiball your lynch would disprove that and catching 5th would then seem almost trivial, if not nos chick then chick venges or something.

If multiball was off the table and it was purely SK vs 5th I would leave you alive but force your shot as it would be higher utility therefore but with multiball a consideration it's way way more risky

[the worst]

and yet you very strongly believe it's just me as a serial killer left
while I've been b2b2b2b shooting the correct portion of the lynchpool

again....... if I'm ever groupscum here where do you see my partners being?